Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% expansion in the US soybean planting area in 2026, while the latest forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September prediction due to irregular rainfall in some regions [2]. - Night trading of protein meal showed a weak trend. The USDA供需 report lowered the US soybean yield forecast for 2025/26, resulting in a decrease in production and ending stocks. However, as the market's expectation for the report's adjustment strength was high, the actual data was less favorable. Recently, the US soybean crushing demand has been strong, but the US soybean futures price has corrected due to significant increases. The domestic soybean meal market remains loose with high inventory, and it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will adjust following the US soybean in the short term [2]. - Night trading of oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend. The MPOB report indicated an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, leading to continued inventory accumulation to 2.46 million tons. After the report was released, the market showed a situation of "bad news is out." Regarding soybean oil, market rumors suggest that the EPA is preparing to submit the final RVO plan to the White House, boosting the demand expectation for soybean oil in biodiesel. It is expected that the futures prices of related oils and fats will strengthen in the short term. However, due to the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds and frequent state reserve sales, the supply of rapeseed raw materials has increased, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8,356, 8,852, 9,813, 3,022, 2,419, and 8,844 respectively, with price changes of 36, 144, -61, -19, -12, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.43%, 1.65%, -3.15%, -0.62%, -0.49%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 are -290, -236, -451, -920, 1,353, and 433 respectively, compared with previous values of -288, -264, -460, -952, 1,484, and 532. The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are -26, 80, 491, 1.20, 2.73, and 5,038 respectively, compared with previous values of -53, 88, 467, 1.19, 2.75, and 5,026 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,176 ringgit/ton, 1,135 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 321 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of 241, -15, -1, and -6, and percentage changes of 6.12%, -1.33%, -1.30%, and -1.72% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8,640 and 8,670 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.70%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8,810 and 8,740 respectively, with a percentage change of 1.38% and 1.39%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9,780 and 9,860 respectively, with a percentage change of -0.31% and -0.30%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 2,990, with a percentage change of -0.99% and -1.32%; the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2,400 and 2,490 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.64% and -1.58%; the spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7,450 and 7,400 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.32% and 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 284 and 314; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is -42 and -112; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is -33 and 47; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is -32; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is -19 and 71; the spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is -344 and -394. The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is -20; the spot spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1,500; the spot spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 [1]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -411, compared with a previous value of -469. The current import profit of near - month US Gulf soybeans is -337, compared with a previous value of -339. The current import profit of near - month Brazilian soybeans is -32, compared with a previous value of -267. The current import profit of near - month US West soybeans is -253, compared with a previous value of -260. The current import profit of near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil is 491, compared with a previous value of 554 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 24,627, 730, 4,161, 40,890, 2,000, and 0 respectively, compared with previous values of 24,731, 730, 5,253, 41,073, 2,745, and 0 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all of which are "oscillating weakly" with a medium - term "oscillating" view [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested the positive news in advance, and the US soybean export data is weak, especially the sales to China far below expectations. The cost support for the domestic soybean meal market exists but lacks continuous driving force. The domestic supply is loose, with high port soybean inventories, increased oil mill operating rates leading to high soybean meal inventories. The arrival of previously purchased Argentine soybean meal has further expanded the supply and increased supply pressure concerns, causing the futures price to weaken [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trends depend on external markets like soybean oil and the bio - diesel policy expectations of major producing countries. The current situation of loose supply and weak demand in the palm oil market is the main pressure. The short - term futures price will continue to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Malaysian production and export data, the final implementation of the US bio - diesel policy, and changes in global vegetable oil trade flows [7]. Other Related Information - **Price Calculation Method**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, and the rise - fall range is calculated accordingly [2]. - **Strength and Weakness Definition**: A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly; a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly; a rise of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [3]. - **Time - Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Recently, the sentiment of small - scale farmers holding back sales has increased, and the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. With colder weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the demand expectation has improved, providing short - term price support. However, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term pig price. After the price recovers, the enthusiasm for slaughter increases, which is unfavorable for the near - month futures. There are sporadic outbreaks in the Northeast, and the spread of the epidemic needs continuous tracking. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can continue to be held [2]. Grains Industry - The NOPA's October crushing data exceeded market expectations, supporting US soybeans. But the export demand is weak, and China's 13% tariff on US soybeans is still unfavorable for US soybean exports. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the high - level operation of crushers continues the loose pattern of soybean meal. The current futures price has limited downward space, but it is difficult to strengthen only based on cost and crushing profit. Continue to pay attention to the state - reserve soybean trends, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [5]. Corn Industry - The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, but the enthusiasm for selling grain is average, and the price is stable. In North China, the number of trucks arriving at enterprises is acceptable, and enterprises purchase as needed, with prices also stable. It is the stage of new - season corn supply, and about 20% of the grain has been sold. There is still selling pressure due to the bumper harvest. On the demand side, the deep - processing profit is relatively good, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is high. The feed industry has increased the inventory - replenishing enthusiasm of low - inventory enterprises, but the increase is limited, and purchases are still cautious. In the short term, corn trading is relatively stable, and the futures price will fluctuate narrowly. Pay attention to the grain - selling rhythm and traders' sentiment [7]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, due to the decline in production, improvement in exports, and the boost from the rise of peripheral vegetable oils, Malaysian palm oil may reach 4300 ringgit again. Affected by the continued strengthening of Malaysian palm oil, domestic palm oil futures may reach the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. For soybean oil, the US EPA has proposed to set the biodiesel quota for 2026 at 71.2 billion RIN, which is equivalent to about 56.1 billion gallons, higher than the industry's previous proposal. Policies on biodiesel in Canada and Indonesia have boosted the vegetable oil market. However, the NOPA data shows that the US soybean oil inventory at the end of October increased and exceeded market expectations. The CBOT soybean is stagnant, affecting the cost side of CBOT soybean oil. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the domestic fundamentals have been digested by the market. If the CBOT soybean oil rises after the shock, the January contract of domestic soybean oil futures may rise to around 8500 yuan [9]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower due to sufficient sugar supply. It is expected that the global sugar supply will remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's end - season production is strong, and the harvest in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere has started well, strengthening the expectation of sufficient supply during Brazil's off - season. The supply is loose, and the raw sugar price will be weak. The old - sugar market has basically cleared inventory, new sugar pressure is increasing in Guangxi, and China's sugar imports in October increased by 39% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The overall sugar price is expected to remain weak [12]. Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower as traders awaited the US weekly export sales report. Domestically, the new cotton is concentrated on the market in the short term, and the production is high, bringing short - term supply pressure. However, the downstream textile enterprises' finished - product inventory pressure is not large, which supports the cotton price. In the short term, the cotton price may be under pressure and run weakly within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The number of newly - laying hens is at a low level, but the number of old hens for slaughter has not increased significantly. The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply pressure persists. With favorable storage conditions, there is inventory backlog at all levels, and the loose supply pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The demand is weak, and trading at all levels is cautious. After the continuous decline of egg prices, the sentiment of holding back sales is strong in low - price areas, and the sales in high - price areas are slow. The current egg price has reached the bottom of the stage, and the space for further sharp decline may be limited. The short positions in the 2512 contract can gradually stop losses at the previous low [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 45.45%, the price of "Pig 2605" decreased by 0.37% to 11995 yuan/ton, the price of "Pig 2601" increased by 0.22% to 11560 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13.86% to - 435, the main - contract position decreased by 2.87% to 138334, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei changed to 11800, 11800, 11350, 11550, 12210, 11800, and 11800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.84% to 202202, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.97% to 18.42 yuan/kg, the weekly piglet price increased by 1.47% to 17.25 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.14% to 128.48 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 28.70% to - 115 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 17.15% to - 206 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.07% to 40350000 heads [2]. Grains Industry Soybean Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.33% to 3050 yuan/ton, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 0.62% to 3022 yuan/ton, the basis of "M2601" increased by 47.37% to 28, the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "m2601 - 50", the crushing profit of Brazilian February shipments increased by 127.7% to 13, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4% to 40890 [5]. Rapeseed Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.64% to 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.49% to 2419 yuan/ton, the basis of "RM2601" decreased by 311.11% to - 19, the crushing profit of Canadian January shipments decreased by 8.16% to 630, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 27.14% to 2000 [5]. Soybeans - The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3920 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.10% to 4145 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - one contract increased by 1.75% to - 225, the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3950 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.19% to 3748 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - two contract increased by 3.59% to 202, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12832 [5]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 5.26% to 198, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 5.88% to 32, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.91% to 2.84, the main - contract oil - meal ratio increased by 1.06% to 2.77, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 4.84% to 650, and the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.15% to 603 [5]. Corn Industry Corn - The price of "Corn 2601" increased by 0.32% to 2175 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.45% to 2220 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.42% to 45, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.11% to - 70, the bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2360 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit increased by 25.64% to 40, the CIF price increased by 0.04% to 2033 yuan/ton, the import profit decreased by 0.23% to 327, the number of early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased by 30.03% to 508, the position increased by 1.17% to 1903247, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69337 [7]. Corn Starch - The price of "Corn Starch 2601" increased by 0.53% to 2480 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun increased by 1.99% to 2560 yuan/ton, the spot price in Weifang increased by 1.82% to 2800 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 86.05% to 80, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.05% to - 80, the 01 contract spread between starch and corn increased by 2.01% to 305, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged at 31, the position decreased by 0.57% to 282790, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12453 [7]. Oil Industry Soybean Oil - The current price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.58% to 8670 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Y2601" increased by 0.43% to 8356 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.67% to 314, the spot basis quote decreased by 10 to "01 + 260", and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.42% to 24627 [9]. Palm Oil - The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.39% to 8740 yuan/ton, the futures price of "P2601" increased by 1.65% to 8708 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.27% to - 88, the spot basis quote decreased by 30 to "01 - 50", the January import cost at Guangzhou Port increased by 1.31% to 9256.7 yuan/ton, the January import profit at Guangzhou Port increased by 5.64% to - 405, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 730 [9]. Rapeseed Oil - The current price of first - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.97% to 10270 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Ol601" decreased by 0.62% to 9813 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 9.85% to 357, and the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "01 + 350" [9]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 12.28% to 200, the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil decreased by 14.99% to - 114, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 9.85% to 363, the spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at - 70, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 7.67% to - 730, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.09% to 1500, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 6.24% to 1457 [9]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of "Sugar 2601" decreased by 0.48% to 5381 yuan/ton, the price of "Sugar 2605" decreased by 0.35% to 5338 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.34% to 14.66 cents/pound, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 14.00% to 43, the main - contract position increased by 6.83% to 388009, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.13% to 8428, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 183 [12]. Spot Market - The price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5550 yuan/ton, the price in Kunming decreased by 0.90% to 5500 yuan/ton, the Nanning basis decreased by 4.93% to 212, the Kunming basis decreased by 16.06% to 162, the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.73% to 4060 yuan/ton, the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.75% to 5143 yuan/ton, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning remained unchanged at - 1490, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning decreased by 2.26% to - 407 [12]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 41.20% to 26.66 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales rate decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 4.80% to 93.90%, the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi increased by 62.90% to 44.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan increased by 26.60% to 33.65 million tons, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of "Cotton 2605" increased by 0.63% to 13490 yuan/ton, the price of "Cotton 2601" increased by 0.67% to 13485 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.78% to 63.94 cents/pound, the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 5, the main - contract position decreased by 2.05% to 553421, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.52% to 3486, and the effective forecast increased by 23.92% to 1150 [13]. Spot Market - The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14557 yuan/ton, the CC Index of grade 3128B decreased by 0.07% to 14779 yuan/ton, the FC Index of grade M decreased by 0.47%

美国能源信息署19日发布数据显示，美国上周乙醇产量为3.21亿加仑，比前一周增加500万加仑，但同 比下降2%；美国乙醇库存为9.37亿加仑，增加600万加仑；上周美国日汽油消费量增长1%，达到853万 桶。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国环保署消息称美国总统特朗普可能将进口RIN（可再生能源识别码）的决定推迟数年，芝加哥期货 交易所农产品期价下跌。 此外，市场预计从9月到12月中旬，美国损失了3.5亿至4亿蒲式耳大豆的中国进口需求，且这些损失的 销售额无法弥补。这将导致2025-2026年度美国大豆出口量低于15亿蒲式耳，甚至可能低至14.5亿蒲式 耳。 新华财经纽约11月19日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米、小麦和大豆期价19日全线下 跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.4150美元，比前一交易日下跌8.00美分，跌 幅为1.78%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.4975美元，比前一交易日下跌9.25美分，跌幅为 1.65%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳11.3525美元，比前一交易日下跌18.25美分，跌幅为1.58%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 1.68%, closing at 30.4683 points, indicating a bearish trend in the grain market [1] Grain Futures Summary - CBOT corn futures fell by 1.72%, settling at $4.4175 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 1.60%, closing at $5.4975 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 1.58%, ending at $11.3525 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures declined by 2.30%, while soybean oil futures fell by 1.98% [1] Livestock Futures Summary - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 1.19% [1] - Live cattle futures decreased by 1.68% [1] - Feeder cattle futures fell by 1.44% [1]

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 【粕类日报】利多体现明显 美豆逐步回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3022 | -19 | 天津 | 3 0 | 2 0 | 1 0 | | 0 5 | | 2824 | - 8 | 东莞 | -40 | -40 | 0 | | 0 9 | | 2937 | -10 | 张家港 | -50 | -50 | 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -20 | -30 | 1 0 | | 0 1 | | 2419 | -12 | 南通 | 2 1 | 1 9 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, palm oil prices broke through and rose, driven by the positive impact of the US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil. Peanut prices dropped significantly due to expected supply improvement and weak demand. The prices of two types of meal remained weak, and this trend may continue. Additionally, sugar, pork, soybean meal, eggs, and jujube prices were falling, while apples were in high - level adjustment and cotton had a technical rebound [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil broke through and rose due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil [1]. - Peanut prices dropped significantly because of expected supply improvement and weak demand [1]. - The prices of two types of meal were weak, with the increase in oil mill crushing volume and weak downstream demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Breakthrough and Uptrend - The US EPA proposed to set the 2026 biomass diesel blending target at 5.61 billion gallons, a 67% surge from 2025, which strongly supported soybean oil consumption and drove up palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil will enter the production - reduction season, and Indonesia will implement the B50 policy [2]. - The palm oil main contract 2601 broke through the recent sideways range and stood above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting an upward - opening space. The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips [2]. (2) Peanut: Sharp Decline - Due to busy farming and low temperatures, the supply of peanuts from Henan farmers was limited, but it is expected to increase after the farming season. The demand was generally low, with traders purchasing on - demand and oil mills not conducting large - scale acquisitions [3]. - The peanut main contract 2601 dropped significantly, breaking below the moving - average system and entering a downward trend. The strategy is to short with a light position at resistance levels [3]. (3) Sugar: Continuous Decline - Globally, Brazil's sugar production was strong, and the sugar production in the second half of October continued to grow. The harvest in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries started well, and India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In China, the import of sugar remained high, and the seasonal supply increased with the start of sugarcane crushing in Guangxi [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 continued to expand its downward space. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [7]. (4) Pig: Narrow - Range Fluctuation at Low Level - The inventory of breeding sows was still higher than the normal level, and production efficiency improved, resulting in an over - capacity situation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in November remained high, and there was pressure from the release of additional supplies from secondary fattening. The demand during the traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and the cold - curing consumption was postponed due to the warm winter [8][10]. - The pig main contract 2601 fluctuated narrowly at a low level after a sharp decline, and the price continued to run below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position [10]. (5) Soybean Meal: Continuous Decline - The arrival of imported soybeans in China was sufficient, the oil mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean crushing volume last week exceeded 2 million tons. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons, and downstream feed enterprises' purchases were average [11]. - The soybean meal main contract 2601 continued to decline, testing the support of the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position [11]. (6) Apple: High - Level Adjustment - The cold - storage trading in the western apple - producing areas was basically stable, and the prices were flat. The demand for small apples in the Shandong producing area was active, and the prices were firm. The overall cold - storage inventory of apples was at a low level in recent years, and the supply of deliverable goods was expected to be tight [13]. - The apple main contract 2601 was in high - level adjustment, and the price was above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [13]. (7) Egg: Continuous Decline - The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level, resulting in sufficient supply. After Double 11, the sales of e - commerce and supermarkets declined, and the demand was weak. The elimination of old hens continued, but the growth rate of elimination slowed down, and the capacity reduction was slow [15]. - The egg main contract 2601 continued to decline, approaching the previous low. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [15]. (8) Jujube: Limited Rebound, Low - Level Fluctuation - The main jujube - producing area in Xinjiang adhered to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises were reluctant to make large - scale purchases. The inventory of old jujubes was slowly being digested, and the domestic sample - point inventory was much higher than that of last year. The market supply pressure was large, limiting the rebound space of jujube prices [18]. - The jujube main contract 2601 had a limited rebound and fluctuated at a low level. The short - term strategy is to short, paying attention to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. (9) Cotton: Technical Rebound - With the centralized listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory of cotton continued to grow, and the port inventory also increased with the arrival of foreign cotton. The textile industry was in the off - season, with weak domestic sales growth and limited new orders in the export market [19][21]. - The cotton main contract 2601 rebounded technically at a low level, driven by short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to the resistance of the medium - term moving average [21].

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production, crush, and supply - demand for 24/25 and 25/26 soybean years. The adjustment of the export item in the report indicates a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase of US soybeans, causing short - term adjustment in CBOT soybeans. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. Its future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6] Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Contract Quotes**: The "Soybean Meal 2601" contract closed at 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous settlement; "Soybean Meal 2603" closed at 3008 yuan, up 8 yuan or 0.27%; "Soybean Meal 2605" closed at 2832 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.53% [6] - **USDA Report**: The 24/25 ending stocks decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 year, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending stocks of 290 million bushels were higher than market expectations [6] - **China - US Trade Agreement**: China is required to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. However, the USDA's adjustment of the export item shows a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase [6] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. It may regain its upward trend if China's import of US soybeans improves; otherwise, it will return to the previous range - bound pattern [6] 2. Industry News - **US 2025/26 Soybean Data**: The yield per acre decreased from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels; the production decreased from 4.301 billion bushels to 4.253 billion bushels; the crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels; the export decreased from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels; the ending stocks decreased from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7][8] - **Global 2025/26 Soybean Meal Data**: The production is expected to be 286.418 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons from the previous estimate. The ending stocks are expected to be 18.271 million tons, an increase of 0.117 million tons. The export is expected to be 81.548 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. Argentina's export is expected to decrease by 1.1 million tons, while Brazil's is expected to increase by 0.8 million tons [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated November 19, 2025, from the Agricultural Products R & D Report of the Research Institute [1] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK604 closed at 7842, down 48 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 32,575 (up 11.77%) and an open interest of 19,638 (down 6.20%) [2] - PK510 closed at 8150, down 18 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 71 (up 73.17%) and an open interest of 645 (up 4.37%) [2] - PK601 closed at 7794, down 120 (-1.54%), with a trading volume of 104,040 (up 37.97%) and an open interest of 151,721 (down 9.60%) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 7600, and 7600 respectively, with no change [2] - Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, Rizhao soybean meal was 3000 (down 20), peanut oil was 14550, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8850 (up 350) [2] - Import prices: Sudanese peanuts were 8600, Senegalese peanuts were 7600, with no change [2] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 spread was - 48 (down 72), PK04 - PK10 spread was - 308 (down 30), and PK10 - PK01 spread was 356 (up 102) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan declined, while those in the Northeast were strong. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts were 4.45 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu was 4.5 yuan/jin, both stable. Henan Baisha common peanuts were 3.55 - 3.85 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. Shandong Junan was 3.5 yuan/jin, stable [4] - Imported peanut prices were stable. Sudanese refined peanuts were 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese were 7600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts were 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts were 8000 yuan/ton, all stable [4] - Peanut oil prices were stable. Mainstream purchase prices of peanut oil mills were 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, with a theoretical break - even price of 7900 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14500 yuan/ton, and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton, both stable [4][6] - Rizhao soybean meal prices fell to 3000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3210 yuan/ton [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 are in low - level oscillations. Short - sell contract 01 peanuts on rallies [8][9] Spread - Reverse spread for 1 - 5 contracts. Industrial players can try positive spread for 12 - 1 contracts [10] Options - Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 5: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, 10 - 1 contract spread, and 1 - 4 contract spread [13][20][23]

| 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 农产品团队 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月18日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力01合约偏强走势，午后收于8320（日变动3 8或0.46%）。国际柴油价格走强带动马棕油上涨，进而带动连盘豆 油上涨。目前国内豆油库存虽然绝对量偏高但已经进入递减阶段， ...