| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 【粕类日报】美豆回落压力继续增加 国内盘面整体下行 基本面：美国近期暂停发布相关报告，市场新增信息有限。前期美豆旧作平衡表结转库 存小幅上调，旧作方面整体变化不大，需求完成情况良好。新作产量方面对单产进行了小幅 下调，但因种植面积进行了小幅上调，整体供应端略有增加，库存较前期小幅上调。由于当 前价格对于美豆库存体现并不明显，因此盘面回落空间相对有限，后续仍然主要受出口方面 影响，如果美豆出口继续缺乏明显提振，则后续可能仍将表现出比较明显的下行压力，但在 整体出口空间有限的背景下，预计盘面反弹空间也相对受限。南美旧作整体以供需偏宽松为 主，主要出口国大豆大豆产量预计增加 1539 万吨，压榨量增加 821 万吨，总体结转库存或 者出口量可能呈现增加态势。并且，当前巴西农户大豆卖货进度相对偏慢，预计价格整体压 力仍然存在。不过需要关注的是，当前巴西大豆价格较高的主要影响仍然在于对于后续出口 相对比较乐观。国际豆粕整体供应压力仍然比较明显，预计全年主要产区大豆压榨量增加 2153.6 万吨，主要豆粕进口国进口量仅小幅增加，在此背景下，预计国 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13295元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14755元/吨，较前一日变动-46元/吨，现货基差CF01+1460，较前一日变动-185；3128B棉全国均价14739元/吨， 较前一日变动-20元/吨，现货基差CF01+1444，较前一日变动-203。 近期市场资讯，巴西2025/26年度新棉供应放量，加上海外纺企刚需补库，装运节奏明显加快。9月巴西棉出口量为 17.9万吨，环比（7.7万吨）大幅增加130.8%，同比（17.0万吨）增加5.5%。从当月出口目的地看，中国为主要出 口国，出口量占总量的19%；巴基斯坦及越南出口量排第二，各占比15%；孟加拉出口量排第三，占比14%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价小幅反弹。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低点，不过USDA对于中国等增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍 将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口 ...

Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In the short term, the pressure on pig sales during the double festivals will gradually ease. If there is concentrated replenishment in secondary fattening, prices are expected to stabilize. However, in the medium to long term, the supply pressure of pigs will continue to be released in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to be optimistic about pig prices. Policy - led industry capacity reduction will take time to show results, and there will still be pressure on spot prices until the first half of next year. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies, and for arbitrage, focus on LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 reverse spreads [2]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contracts (pig 2511, pig 2601) decreased, with the 11 - 1 spread down 21.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 4.53%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline in Henan at 1230 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased slightly by 0.04%. Weekly indicators such as white - striped pork prices, piglet prices, and sow prices remained unchanged. The monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 0.10% [2]. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View The fundamentals of US soybeans have not improved, and the new Brazilian soybean crop is expected to increase supply, suppressing the upside of US soybeans. There is a supply gap for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of 2026, supporting the M2601 price. Uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected that the spot price of domestic soybeans and soybean meal will not improve this year, and the M2601 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 2950 [5]. Summary of Related Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.38%, and the basis decreased. The import crushing profit of Argentina decreased by 32.4%, and that of Brazil in November decreased [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price increased by 0.40%, the futures price of RM2601 increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased. The import crushing profit of Canada in November increased by 2.91% [5]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of some regions remained unchanged, the futures prices of soybean - one and soybean - two main contracts increased, and the basis decreased. There is a 600 - million - ton supply gap for domestic 11 - 12 - month shipments [5]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the oil - meal ratio increased, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased [5]. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Currently, corn is in the peak listing period. With the concentrated supply pressure, corn will maintain a weak pattern. Although feed and deep - processing enterprises need to replenish inventory seasonally, the current demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Summary of Related Data - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 decreased, the basis decreased by 56.70%, the 11 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the import profit decreased by 16.67%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 6.34%, and the positions increased by 2.01% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 decreased, the basis decreased by 13.04%, the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 371.43%, and the starch - corn spread decreased by 10.15%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 75.00%, and the positions increased by 1.72% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating upwards. If the fundamentals are favorable, there is a chance to break through the previous high; otherwise, there is a risk of a pull - back. For domestic palm oil futures, there is also a risk of a pull - back near the previous high. For soybean oil, due to uncertainties in US industrial demand and potential policy changes in Brazil, the international soybean oil price is under pressure. Although domestic demand for replenishment after the holiday may boost prices, the abundant supply will limit the increase in basis quotes [10]. Summary of Related Data - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price increased by 2.74%, the futures price of Y2601 increased by 2.36%, and the basis increased. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 90 [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree increased by 4.42%, the futures price of P2601 increased, and the basis increased. The import cost increased, and the import profit increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price increased by 1.95%, the futures price of OI601 increased by 2.03%, and the basis decreased. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, the soybean - palm oil spread decreased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [10]. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Internationally, the supply of Brazilian sugar has increased, and the upward momentum of raw sugar prices is limited, expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents/lb. Domestically, new sugar has been listed, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. Considering natural disasters, the increase in domestic production needs to be re - evaluated. Sugar prices are in a relatively undervalued area, and the possibility of a sharp decline is limited, expected to oscillate at the bottom between 5400 - 5600 [11]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 increased, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.43%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.86%, the main contract positions decreased by 3.68%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% [11]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased, and the difference between imported Brazilian sugar and domestic sugar changed [11]. - **Industry Situation**: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased by 160%. In Brazil, the sugar production in the central - southern region in the first half of September increased by 15.72% year - on - year [11]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View US cotton prices are oscillating weakly. Domestically, cotton prices are under pressure due to increased supply expectations and weak demand. After the holiday, the price of cottonseed has stabilized, and the short - term downward space for cotton prices may be limited. Overall, cotton prices are expected to remain weak, and the short - term market may fluctuate [12]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 increased, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.74%, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the main contract positions increased by 2.81%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.66%, and the valid forecast decreased by 50.00% [12]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices decreased slightly, and the difference between spot and futures contracts decreased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, imports increased by 40%, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, the cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6%, the processing profit of spinning enterprises increased by 6.2%, and the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 8.7% [12]. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In October, the egg market will be in a pattern of relatively high supply and temporarily weak demand. Egg prices will continue to oscillate downward, lacking strong upward momentum [15]. Summary of Related Data - **Futures Indicators**: The prices of the egg 11 and 01 contracts decreased, the basis decreased, and the 11 - 01 spread increased by 16.46% [15]. - **Spot Indicators**: The egg - laying hen price remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 0.64%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.70%, and the breeding profit decreased by 33.75% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market is at the peak of new - season harvesting and listing, with abundant spot supply and significant price pressure. New - season low - and medium - protein soybean prices are gradually falling and may continue to bottom out as the listing volume increases [4]. - With the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential policies such as state reserves, the policy attribute of soybeans is strengthening, increasing the uncertainty of price trends [4]. - The sharp rise of soybean futures contracts on Thursday is unexpected given the large spot pressure, possibly related to the recent deterioration of trade situation. Further price increases will face hedging pressure, and the main contract is transitioning to 01 [4]. - The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - In October, due to the new - season concentrated harvest and listing, the price pressure is large, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the soybean 11 contract is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.92% and a historical percentile of 22.5% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, when there is a large demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at the price range of 4000 - 4050. Also, selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at the range of 30 - 50 can increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on long - term procurement management by taking long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. Market Quotes - **Price Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the closing price of soybean 11 increased from 3927 to 3975, a daily increase of 48 (1.22%); the closing price of soybean 01 increased from 3904 to 3973, a daily increase of 69 (1.77%); the closing price of soybean 03 increased from 3903 to 3970, a daily increase of 67 (1.72%); the closing price of soybean 05 increased from 3936 to 4000, a daily increase of 64 (1.63%); the closing price of soybean 07 increased from 3942 to 3997, a daily increase of 55 (1.40%); the closing price of soybean 09 increased from 3944 to 4000, a daily increase of 56 (1.42%) [5]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: In October, the domestic soybean market is in the new - season concentrated harvest and listing period, with large price pressure and limited rebound space [4]. - **Other Influencing Factors**: Policy factors such as state reserves and two - way auctions also affect the market, and the uncertainty of price trends increases [4][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply of soybeans is expected to remain loose in the medium term, and the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. - For oils and fats, supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increasing demand for soybean oil due to the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and decreasing export volume expectations of Indonesia, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term [5][6][7]. - For sugar, considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the overall outlook is bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, both domestic and international factors suggest that the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [16][17][18]. - For pigs, due to factors such as excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly. The USDA report was postponed due to the government shutdown. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal futures were stable, and the spot price rose slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume from October 4th to 10th was 1.357 million tons. As of October 2nd, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium term, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies, while in the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan, which will increase the demand for palm - based biofuels. Reuters estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September might decrease by 2.5% compared to August. On Thursday, domestic oils and fats rose significantly, mainly stimulated by the news of Indonesia's B50 plan [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories, increasing demand, and decreasing export volume expectations, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a stable decline [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,528 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. In September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The purchase price of seed cotton was lower than last year, and the downstream demand was weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak domestic demand and high export pressure in the US, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price generally declined. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve significantly, and the market confidence is low [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The slaughter enterprises had the intention to lower the purchase price, and the pig price was expected to continue to decline slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - Palm oil: B50 road testing is advanced, and it shows relatively strong performance among varieties [2][4]. - Soybean oil: With the U.S. soybeans oscillating, it's difficult for soybean oil to reach new highs [2][4]. - Soybean meal: It is in an oscillating state [2][12]. - Soybean: It is in an oscillating state [2][11]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the listing of new grains [2][14]. - Sugar: It is on an oscillating upward trend [2][17]. - Cotton: The transaction price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized [2][21]. - Eggs: The spot market is operating weakly [2][25]. - Hogs: The spot bottom has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large [2][27]. - Peanuts: Supply pressure still exists [2][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,570 yuan/ton with a 3.71% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,596 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,332 yuan/ton with a 2.36% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,374 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia will implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026, which will eliminate the need for diesel imports and generate an additional 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil demand [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511's day - session closing price was 3,975 yuan/ton with a 1.17% increase, and night - session closing price was 3,960 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session closing price was 2,939 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,929 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 9, CBOT soybeans fell due to long - position profit - taking, active technical selling, and increased concerns about Sino - U.S. trade. The U.S. Department of Agriculture postponed the release of the monthly supply - demand report, and the details of the 10 - 15 billion U.S. dollars farmer assistance plan are yet to be announced. A weak La Nina weather pattern is emerging, increasing the drought risk in major producing areas [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Jinzhou's closing position was 2,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; C2511's day - session closing price was 2,138 yuan/ton with a 0.42% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,133 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: During the National Day holiday, the price of Northeast corn declined. The price in North Ports slightly increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton on October 6. The price in North China fluctuated with an overall downward trend [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.07 cents/pound; the mainstream spot price was 5,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the futures main - contract price was 5,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Typhoon "Maideme" affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and floods occurred in the Guangxi production area. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,295 yuan/ton with a 0.61% increase, and night - session closing price was 13,380 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase; ICE cotton 12 was 64.46 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.74% [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The procurement intention of textile enterprises for cotton spot is general. The acquisition price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized. The ICE cotton futures fell due to lack of fundamental support, weak technical indicators, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and falling crude oil prices [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 2,650 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 8.97; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,246 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 3.19 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of - 1 [25]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton; the futures price of Hog 2511 was 11,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [29]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton; PK510's closing price was 7,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% [31]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In the Henan Baisha peanut - producing area, trading has basically stopped. In the Jilin and Liaoning peanut - producing areas, the price is stable or slightly weak, and the supply is increasing. In Shandong, the supply is affected by rainy weather [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy suggestion is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5,800.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5,820.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,850.0 yuan [1] Disk Surface - The closing price of US sugar is 16.25, with a change of - 0.43%. The closing price of US cotton is 64.46, with a change of - 0.74% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, so the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory Warrants - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants is 8,898.0, with a change of - 0.78%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants is 3,030.0, with a change of - 1.66% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's startup time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover during the traditional peak season, so the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar decreased from 16.32 to 16.25, a change of - 0.43%. The price of US cotton decreased from 64.94 to 64.46, a change of - 0.74% [4] - **Spot Prices**: The price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5,780.0 to 5,800.0, a change of 0.35%. The price of sugar in Kunming increased from 5,810.0 to 5,820.0, a change of 0.17%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a change of - 0.14%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14,950.0 to 14,850.0, a change of - 0.67% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: Different sugar and cotton contract price differences and basis have different degrees of change [4] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.05, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,456.0, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have different implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warrants**: The number of sugar warrants decreased from 8,968.0 to 8,898.0, a change of - 0.78%. The number of cotton warrants decreased from 3,081.0 to 3,030.0, a change of - 1.66% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a decline across all major contracts on October 9, 2023, indicating a bearish trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Sugar Futures - Raw sugar futures fell by 0.25%, closing at 16.25 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Cotton Futures - Cotton futures decreased by 0.69%, ending at 64.46 cents per pound [1] Group 3: Cocoa Futures - Cocoa futures dropped by 0.95%, closing at $5,943.00 per ton [1] Group 4: Coffee Futures - Coffee futures experienced a significant decline of 1.99%, closing at 377.45 cents per pound [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/10/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2939 | 1 1 | 天津 | 6 0 | 5 0 | 1 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2755 | 1 7 | | -20 | -30 | 1 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2863 | 1 6 | | -30 | -40 | 1 0 | | | | | | 日照 | 0 | -10 | 1 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2435 | 1 4 | 南通 | 2 5 | 3 9 | -14 | | 广东 | 0 5 | 2334 | 1 7 | | 115 | 9 9 | 1 6 | | 广西 | 0 9 | 2415 | 1 2 | | 105 ...