热点报告——商品期货 财经委会议强调"反内卷" "反内卷"政策的总体思路包括两方面，一是加强行业自律管 理，包括限制低价竞争、自律限产等；二是推进产业升级、落 后产能去化。但本轮"反内卷"政策和 2015 年供给侧革的环境 有很多不同：多数行业产能升级后，产能去化难度更大；除了 上游外，中下游产能过剩情况也较为突出；地产等终端需求尚 未出现企稳回升迹象，对商品价格持续提振的驱动有所不足。 ★"反内卷"对国债和重点商品的影响： 商 国债：基准假设之下，反内卷政策对于国债的影响相对有限。 但需要警惕需求侧政策配合发力，带来国债期货下跌的风险。 期 货 多晶硅、工业硅：6 月底在发改委限价要求下，多晶硅企业报价 远高于下游可接受价格，供应端仍以复产为主。真正意义上涨 取决于减产落实和下游价格传导。工业硅传言大厂减产，但与 政策并未有直接关系，若期价上涨，企业复产套保概率较大。 玻璃、纯碱：光伏玻璃 7 月减产较多，但浮法玻璃尚未明确响 应"反内卷"，且高窑龄产线集中冷修不明显。在政策预期和 高基差下，玻璃期价存在一定支撑。但光伏玻璃减产利空纯碱 需求，建议多玻璃空纯碱套利操作。 钢铁：由于价格持续下行，行业品种结构 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-03 供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐⼭减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均 不明显，铁⽔维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 ⿊⾊：供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐山减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均 不明显，铁水维持高位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 1、铁元素方面，小样本钢企铁水微降，短期无大幅下行驱动。到港 环比下降叠加需求高位，港口 ...

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

沪深股市在上周快速突破 3400 点之后，再次转入牛皮盘整阶段。从原因看，一方面，由于大盘多 次探底不下，韧性十足，因此多方向上试盘，并获得市场认同，其中上证指数创出年内新高。另一方 面，目前还是存量资金参与为主。在现有信息披露中，尚没有证据表明有明显的增量资金在短期内集中 介入，因此在存量格局下，短期内也很难持续放量突破。从技术上看，价升量增，放量突破，才能够确 认行情的有效性。如果从今年春节以后的几次上攻走势看，2、3 月份的最大单日成交分别为 2.19 万亿 元和 1.79 万亿元，本轮上攻则只有 1.60 万亿元，周三已萎缩到 1.40 万亿元以下，可见量能是渐次萎缩 和收敛的，存在一定的技术背离。从目前看，在没有持续放量之前，行情继续窄幅波动的可能性较大。 热点方面，仍以快速轮动为主。周三表现较强的以钢铁、水泥、煤炭、玻璃等传统行业、强周期板 块为主，此前这些板块主要受房地产行业影响较大，表现相对沉寂，目前以轮动为主，基本面没有特别 变化。而前期表现高弹性的通信设备、航天航空、半导体、电子元件等周三跌幅居前，同样是以短期表 现为主。 展望后市：大盘继续以窄幅波动为主。在未来两周，6 月份以及二季度宏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a volatile upward trend. Rumors of strict production - restriction measures in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region led to a significant increase in futures prices, especially in the steel market. The static fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, but attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, silicon - iron, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash were all affected by the policy statement of "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity". The market sentiment was optimistic, but there are still uncertainties regarding whether over - capacity means backward capacity and how to solve the problem of insufficient downstream demand [6][10][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3065 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (2.064%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton (1.753%). The positions of both increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar's apparent demand was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed due to increased production. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated slightly [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 722.50 yuan/ton, up 1.98% (14.00). The position decreased by 6979 hands to 64.79 million hands [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output was 242.29 million tons. The terminal demand of five major steel products decreased slightly. Port inventory and port clearance increased, while steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Price**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) rose 1.99% to 5726 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) rose 3.15% to 5436 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is optimistic due to policy expectations. However, caution is needed for long - position follow - up, and short - position speculation should be on the sidelines. Enterprises with hedging profit margins can consider appropriate hedging [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2509) rose 5.73% to 8210 yuan/ton. The spot price also increased [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend since November 2024. Although it showed strength, it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the downward trend line. Similar to other commodities, there are uncertainties in the market, and hedging can be considered for enterprises with profit margins [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The short - position should avoid and wait and see due to policy - driven price rebounds [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand continued to decline, but the supply - demand margin improved slightly. It is expected to rebound following the glass [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of soda ash and glass have rebounded due to policy stimulus, but the supply - demand contradictions in the fundamentals remain. The soda ash market is in an overall surplus situation, with supply declining, weak downstream demand, and further inventory accumulation. The long - term outlook is bearish. For glass, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, supply is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industry production - restriction policies [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market Review** - On July 2, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded significantly, closing at 1205 yuan/ton, up 3.07% or 36 yuan/ton, with a daily reduction of 180,882 lots. The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash production dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and the capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The consumption and inventory showed a downward and upward trend respectively. The market rebounded due to the policy expectation of capacity clearance and production restriction [7][8] - The overall surplus pattern of soda ash suppresses prices. The demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is still declining, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price correction, and take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [9] - **Glass Market Review** - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the traditional rainy season, the terminal demand for glass is weakening. The supply of float glass has increased due to the restart of Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line, leading to greater inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory in the industry is at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction is slow. The glass price rebounded due to policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [10] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [12][13][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 2, 2025, the main glass futures contract rose 4.00% intraday, reaching 1028.00 yuan/ton, driven by multiple factors [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. - Gold is expected to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level, despite a recent adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates [11][12]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, considering supply increases, weakening iron - water production, and port inventory accumulation [15][16]. - The glass market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset, affected by short - term sentiment and recent significant production cuts in photovoltaic glass [19]. - The soybean oil market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, but short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The price increase of glass futures is due to production cut expectations (domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and a company plans to shut down a production line for cold repair), policy factors (the Central Financial and Economic Commission's measures to address low - price competition and promote quality improvement), market sentiment and technical factors (previous oversold condition and cost support from strong soda ash prices) [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to continue to oscillate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After adjusting to an important support level, gold is likely to restart its upward trend. Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a short - term adjustment, the long - term outlook remains bullish [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have resumed accumulation. The market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, and the over - valuation risk of iron ore should be noted [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset. Although there has been significant production cut in photovoltaic glass recently, the supply side has not seen major cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - The market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. However, considering the current supply - demand situation and the upcoming seasonal increase in production and inventory, short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The cement industry is currently facing a policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) aimed at limiting overproduction, with a goal to increase the clinker utilization rate from 50% to 70% to improve profitability [1][3][5] - The glass industry, particularly photovoltaic (PV) glass, is experiencing price declines due to a drop in component installations, with prices nearing the loss threshold for leading companies [1][10][14] Key Points on Cement Industry - The implementation of the overproduction limitation policy may require collaboration with environmental departments and could be piloted in the Sichuan-Chongqing region [1][6] - The cement industry has seen a stabilization in volume and price in Q1 2025 due to fiscal pre-emptions and special bond issuances, but demand weakened in Q2, with expectations for price recovery in July and potential price increases in late August [1][8][9] - The actual clinker production in China is approximately 1.1 billion tons against a designed capacity of 1.8 billion tons, indicating a significant overcapacity of about 2.2 billion tons [3] - The industry is currently undergoing voluntary production cuts through inter-company negotiations, but lacks precise daily production control [8] Challenges in Cement Industry - Effective supervision of production and compliance with the overproduction limitation policy remains a challenge [7] - The need for stronger coordination between MIIT and environmental departments to enforce the policy effectively [6][7] Future Trends in Cement Industry - The focus will be on the continued push for the overproduction limitation policy, with potential trials in the Sichuan-Chongqing region [9] - Long-term demand is expected to stabilize as risks in urban investment and real estate are released, suggesting a bottoming out for leading companies [9] Key Points on Photovoltaic Glass Industry - The PV glass market is under significant pressure, with prices for 2.0 specifications nearing the loss threshold, leading to self-imposed production cuts among major companies [1][10][11] - The expected reduction in production may not reach 30% due to limited remaining capacity after previous shutdowns of smaller furnaces [11] - The price elasticity of PV glass is heavily dependent on the improvement of component demand, as past price rebounds were primarily driven by demand spikes rather than production cuts alone [12] Performance Discrepancies in PV Glass - Domestic PV glass prices have fallen to extreme loss levels, while leading companies with overseas bases report better profitability due to higher selling prices abroad [14] Current Status of Float Glass Industry - The float glass market has maintained stable daily melting volumes without significant inventory reduction or production cuts [13][15] - The industry is primarily composed of private enterprises, which limits the impact of government policies on production decisions [15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the cement and photovoltaic glass industries.

Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

今天，A股板块快速轮动， 盘面呈现明显共振特点，一是股期共振，二是A股顺周期板块之间共振。 A股市场和商品市场紧密联动，成为今天盘面一大特点。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 创业板 | | --- | --- | | 3454.79 | 10412.63 2123.72 | | -2.96 -0.09% - - 63.66 -0.61% - - 24.20 -1.13% | | | 跌3284 涨1945 > | | 商品市场上， 多晶硅、玻璃期货领涨， 多晶硅涨停，玻璃涨超6%， 工业硅、硅铁等品种跟涨。A股市 场上，光伏、玻璃、钢铁等板块大涨。 重庆钢铁（601005）放量大涨，8分钟内拉升涨停。重庆钢铁股份（H股）涨幅更为明显，盘中一度涨 超130%，收盘涨幅为91.11%。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深证成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌1.13%， 全市场 成交额约1.41万亿元。 | 涨幅跌幅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日増减仓 | 玻璃2509 | 1052 | 6.48% | | | 工业硅2509 | 8210 | 4.79% | | 持仓量 | 氧化 ...