Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to see a decline in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, with figures of $1.555 billion and $438 million respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 8.8% and 8.6%, which are below the bank's expectations by 1-3% and generally in line with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 is projected at $1.555 billion, down 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 is projected at $438 million, down 8.6% year-on-year [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustment - UBS has lowered its earnings forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 9% to reflect ongoing weakness in the Chinese market and limited visibility for Q4 [1] - The anticipated recovery is expected to be delayed until 2026 [1] Investment Rating and Target Price - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC, citing the ongoing premiumization in household channels, attractive valuations, and robust cash reserves that support stable dividends in 2025 [1] - The target price has been reduced from HKD 9.07 to HKD 8.75 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to see a decline in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, with figures of $1.555 billion and $438 million respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 8.8% and 8.6%, which are slightly below UBS's expectations by 1-3% but generally in line with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 is projected at $1.555 billion, down 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 is projected at $438 million, down 8.6% year-on-year [1] Earnings Forecast - UBS has lowered its earnings forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 9% due to ongoing weakness in the Chinese market and limited visibility for Q4 [1] - The anticipated recovery is expected to be delayed until 2026 [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC, citing the ongoing premiumization in household channels, attractive valuations, and robust cash reserves that support stable dividends in 2025 [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 9.07 to HKD 8.75 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that Budweiser APAC's Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were $1.555 billion and $438 million, representing year-on-year declines of 8.8% and 8.6%, respectively, which were below the bank's expectations by 1% to 3% but generally in line with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was $1.555 billion, down 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $438 million, down 8.6% year-on-year [1] Earnings Forecast - UBS has lowered Budweiser APAC's earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 9% due to the ongoing weakness in the Chinese market and limited visibility for Q4 [1] - The expected recovery is now anticipated to be delayed until 2026 [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC, citing the ongoing premiumization in household channels, attractive valuations, and robust cash reserves that support stable dividends through 2025 [1] - The target price has been reduced from HKD 9.07 to HKD 8.75 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Brewery (600132.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results, highlighting significant institutional investor activity and changes in shareholding patterns [1] Institutional Investor Activity - As of October 30, 2025, a total of 13 institutional investors disclosed holdings in Chongqing Brewery A-shares, with a combined holding of 336 million shares, representing 69% of the total share capital [1] - Among public funds, two funds increased their holdings compared to the previous period, including the Alcohol ETF and the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Major Consumer ETF, with an increase in holding percentage of 0.76% [1] - One foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, reduced its holdings compared to the previous quarter, with a decrease in holding percentage of 4.49% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Budweiser APAC's Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by stronger-than-expected growth in the South Korean market, while the Chinese market remains under pressure. The future outlook hinges on the potential recovery of the Chinese market in the coming year, with uncertainties surrounding consumer sentiment and market competition leading to low visibility for recovery [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Credit Lyonnais has revised Budweiser's revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 1.3%, 2%, and 3% respectively, and profit forecasts down by 0.3%, 9.8%, and 11% [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 9.3 to HKD 9, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Market Performance Insights - The Chinese market is expected to continue dragging down overall sales and profit margins in Q4 [1] - The South Korean market is benefiting from price increases and product mix upgrades, which are anticipated to sustain growth [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade relations [2][7] - The third quarter economic performance in mainland China has shown further cooling, prompting the government to focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2][4] Company Performance - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a quarterly profit of 100 billion RMB, while China Construction Bank (CCB) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) also showed profit increases of 4.2% and 3.7% respectively [12] - AIA Group's new business value rose by 25% in the last quarter, reaching a record high for Q3, driven by growth in markets including Hong Kong and mainland China [12] - China Life Insurance's new business value increased by nearly 42% in the first three quarters, with a significant profit growth of 91.5% in Q3 [12] - China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a 12% decline in profit for the third quarter, reflecting challenges in the oil market [5][12] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, with indications that further cuts are uncertain [5][7] - The G7 is planning to establish a critical minerals alliance to counter China's dominance in key sectors such as AI and electric vehicles [10][12] - The People's Bank of China is accelerating the implementation of policies related to "Artificial Intelligence + Finance" to enhance the digital transformation of the financial sector [10][12] Sector Focus - The insurance sector in mainland China is seeing improved investment returns due to strong performance in the A-share market [8] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid advancements, particularly in chip development, as the government promotes the application of AI technologies [8][10]

Group 1: Global Technology Competition - The report outlines three potential scenarios for global technology competition over the next decade: baseline scenario (strategic equilibrium between China and the US), optimistic scenario (China becomes an innovation leader), and pessimistic scenario (China's industrial upgrade falls short) [6][7] - Key technologies are defined as frontier technologies (AI, semiconductors, quantum computing, biopharmaceuticals), advanced manufacturing, and critical infrastructure technologies (energy and advanced networks) [6][7] - The US focuses on invention and innovation, while China aims for large-scale innovation in key industries, with both countries undergoing reforms in their innovation systems [6][7] Group 2: Softcom Power (301236.SZ) - For the first three quarters of 2025, Softcom Power reported revenue of 25.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.30%, and a net profit of 0.99 billion yuan, up 30.21% [15][17] - The company is guided by four strategic directions: intelligence, autonomy, greening, and internationalization, with a focus on enhancing software and digital technology services [16][17] - Future revenue projections for Softcom Power are 35.9 billion yuan, 41.3 billion yuan, and 47.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 0.384 billion yuan, 0.526 billion yuan, and 0.855 billion yuan respectively [17] Group 3: Dingjie Smart (300378.SZ) - Dingjie Smart's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.614 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.051 billion yuan, up 2.4% [19][21] - The company is experiencing short-term pressure in mainland China but is seeing stable performance in non-mainland markets, driven by deepening applications and market expansion [19][20] - Revenue projections for Dingjie Smart are 2.502 billion yuan, 2.726 billion yuan, and 2.989 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 0.191 billion yuan, 0.233 billion yuan, and 0.301 billion yuan respectively [21] Group 4: Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288.SH) - Hai Tian Wei Ye reported a revenue increase of 6.02% to 21.628 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 5.322 billion yuan, up 10.54% [22][24] - The company experienced a slowdown in revenue growth in Q3, with a 2.48% increase to 6.398 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 3.40% to 1.408 billion yuan [23][24] - The company is focusing on creating new growth points and enhancing efficiency through digital production [24] Group 5: Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) - Guizhou Moutai's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 130.904 billion yuan, a 6.32% increase, with a net profit of 64.627 billion yuan, up 6.25% [26][28] - The company reported stable sales performance for its flagship Moutai liquor, while other series faced pressure [27][28] - Future earnings per share (EPS) projections for Guizhou Moutai are 72.87 yuan, 77.31 yuan, and 82.70 yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [28] Group 6: Xian Cai Co., Ltd. (600095.SH) - Xian Cai Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in net profit of 203.39% for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 0.442 billion yuan [46][47] - The company's revenue for Q3 was 0.655 billion yuan, a 43.77% increase year-on-year, driven by a surge in commission income [47][48] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.608 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 456.6% increase [48]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector shows mixed performance with the CSI Food and Beverage Index rising by 0.68%, while the industry is experiencing a bottoming out phase with pressures on quarterly reports expected to accelerate industry clearing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Food and Beverage Index increased by 0.68%, with notable gains in stocks such as Youfood, which hit the daily limit, and Guangzhou Restaurant, which rose nearly 5% [1]. - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a net inflow of 9.93 million yuan as of October 30, marking 12 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling 148 million yuan [1]. - The latest circulation size of the Tianhong ETF is 5.585 billion yuan, with a total circulation of 7.904 billion shares [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The wholesale reference prices for Moutai have decreased, with the 25-year Moutai original box dropping by 10 yuan to 1690 yuan per bottle, and the 24-year Moutai original box down by 30 yuan to 1750 yuan per bottle [1]. Group 3: Company Reports - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 29.367 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%, and a net profit of 5.274 billion yuan, up 5.70% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of 8.876 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.17%, while net profit increased by 1.62% to 1.37 billion yuan [1]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Pacific Securities indicates that the industry is in a bottom adjustment phase, with pressures expected in the third-quarter reports, leading to accelerated industry clearing [2]. - CITIC Securities anticipates that the basic industry fundamentals may bottom out by Q3 2025, with the second half of the year expected to show a gradual recovery trend [2]. - The beer sector is facing competitive intensity and regulatory impacts, which may pressure Q3 reports despite stable pre-holiday stocking rhythms [2].

Core Insights - The craft beer segment is rapidly growing in China, driven by consumer demand for quality, unique flavors, and cultural significance, contrasting with traditional industrial beer's limited taste [1][11] - The market size of China's craft beer industry is projected to grow from 200 billion yuan in 2020 to 800 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.42%, and is expected to reach 1,342 billion yuan by 2025 [1][11] - The consumption volume of craft beer in China is forecasted to increase from 360 million liters in 2016 to 2.29 billion liters by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 23.67% [10][11] Industry Overview - Craft beer, also known as microbrewery beer, is defined as beer made from only four ingredients: malt, hops, yeast, and water, without any artificial additives [3] - The craft beer market in China is a new product category, while it has already established a mature market in developed countries [3] Industry Development History - The Chinese craft beer industry has evolved through three stages since the establishment of the first craft brewery in 2008 [4][5] - The industry saw significant growth post-2018, with the introduction of standards for "workshop beer" by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association in 2019, marking a move towards a more regulated development phase [5] Industry Policies - Recent government policies have aimed to boost the craft beer sector, including measures to encourage research and development in unique flavors and the establishment of industry parks [5][6] Industry Value Chain - The craft beer industry value chain includes raw materials (malt, hops, yeast, water), equipment manufacturers, breweries, and sales channels such as supermarkets, bars, and restaurants [7] - The malt industry, crucial for craft beer production, is projected to produce 3.47 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 1.79% year-on-year growth [7] Current Industry Status - The overall beer production in China has been stable, with a slight decline expected in 2024 due to various market factors, while craft beer is positioned as a growth driver [9][10] - The craft beer market is characterized by a diverse brand landscape, including both local independent breweries and large beer companies [12] Future Trends - Product innovation in craft beer will increasingly draw from local cultural elements, creating unique flavors that resonate with consumers [14][15] - The consumption experience is expected to evolve, with craft beer being integrated into various lifestyle venues beyond traditional bars, enhancing consumer engagement [16] - Craft beer brands will focus on community building and shared values, fostering brand loyalty through environmental sustainability and local agriculture support [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported weak performance in the Chinese market for Q3 2025, with a focus on addressing challenges in the on-premise channel and inventory management [1][5][17] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's sales in China decreased by 11.4%, and revenue fell by 15.1%, with revenue per hectoliter down by 4.1% due to increased investment in innovative products and brand promotion [5][17] - For the first nine months of 2025, sales in China decreased by 9.3%, while revenue and revenue per hectoliter decreased by 11.3% and 2.2%, respectively [5][17] - Overall, for the first nine months of 2025, the company's total sales decreased by 7.0%, and revenue decreased by 6.6%, with revenue per hectoliter increasing by 0.4% [17] Market Strategy - The company aims to restore growth and rebuild market share by focusing on improving market channel execution and product mix [2][5] - There is a significant shift towards home consumption, with the company increasing its investment in family consumption channels and e-commerce [9][11] - The company has introduced new packaging formats, such as larger cans, to cater to the home consumption trend [9][11] Inventory Management - The company has actively managed its inventory, reporting that inventory levels and turnover days are lower than the previous year and below industry averages [8][11] Brand Development - The company is focusing on the Harbin brand as a core product line and expanding its presence in both on-premise and home consumption markets [14][16] - The company believes that the Harbin brand has strong potential to compete regionally, especially in traditional strongholds [14][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the home consumption channel, driven by rising disposable incomes and market maturity [13] - The company is optimistic about expanding its non-on-premise sales to align more closely with industry averages [13]