宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 24 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.10%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 3.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.82%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率与上周持平，收于 1.00%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.83%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 资产配置建议 2025 年经济增长目标圆满实现，2026 年稳增长需要财政政策和货币政策 协同发力。2025 年我国经济经历了美国关税政策给全球贸易带来的不确 定性冲击，出现了名义 GDP 和实际 GDP 同比增速倒挂的情况，内需对经 济增长前景预期偏弱导致需求疲弱，工业企业利润同比增速整体偏低等情 况，为稳定经济，我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，推 出"两重""两新"政策支持经济转型升级和内需有效释放，落实"反内卷"政 策引导实体经济持续向好发展，最终实现了全年经济增长 5%的目标。2026 年全球经济 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent stock market has shown an upward trend, leading to an increased preference for convertible bonds among incremental funds. The median price changes across various parity ranges of convertible bonds have risen, particularly for equity-sensitive convertible bonds, reflecting market pricing based on future expectations of underlying stock price increases [3][12]. - The report constructs a convertible bond valuation index based on individual bonds and their corresponding parity ranges, which helps track funding allocation and identify investment opportunities. Notable increases in valuations were observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, power equipment, machinery, and basic chemicals, attributed to price increases in these sectors and a potential reversal in the real estate chain's economic conditions [3][12]. - The report suggests that the current funding environment is relatively ample, supporting the notion that equity-sensitive convertible bonds may experience a "rise easy, fall hard" trend in the short term, indicating strong trading value, especially for popular equity-sensitive convertible bonds [3][12]. Group 2 - The weekly convertible bond strategy highlights that the inflow of incremental funds into the market is expected to continue, with a likely "spring excitement" market trend at the beginning of the year. The focus is on investment opportunities in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [4][17]. - As institutional investors' share in the convertible bond market increases, their expectations for the stock market are expected to have a deeper impact on convertible bond valuations. The report notes that the current investor sentiment towards the medium to long-term stock market remains optimistic, which may sustain demand for equity assets and provide support for convertible bond valuations [4][17]. - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds in sectors such as technology, driven by rising overseas computing power demand and domestic AI industrialization, as well as high-end manufacturing, which is expected to maintain high levels. Specific convertible bonds to watch include those from companies like Ruike, Qizhong, Yake, Daimai, Xingrui, Huachen, and Yubang [4][17].

Group 1 - The company, Teruid, is advancing its global strategy by planning to issue H-shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international brand image and competitiveness [3] - Teruid was founded in 2004 and became the first company listed on the Growth Enterprise Market in 2009, currently holding a market value exceeding 30 billion and employing over 7,000 people [3][4] - The company operates in three main sectors: high-end box-type power equipment manufacturing, automotive charging ecosystem, and new energy microgrids [4] Group 2 - Teruid is a key participant and developer of technical standards for power products in China, providing services across various industries including state grids, railways, and data centers [4] - The company’s subsidiary, Telai Electric, is the largest operator of charging networks in China, managing 898,755 public charging facilities, which accounts for 18.88% of the market share [5] - In the context of carbon neutrality, Teruid offers customized full power system solutions for large industrial clients in the battery supply chain, with products utilized in projects by major companies like CATL and BYD [5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for 2025 shows a cumulative disclosure rate of approximately 13.1% and a cumulative positive performance rate of about 40.3% among the disclosed companies [15]. Performance Forecast Summary - Among the 717 companies that disclosed performance forecasts, 180 companies (25.1%) expect an increase in performance, 45 companies (6.3%) expect a slight increase, 58 companies (8.1%) expect to turn losses into profits, and 6 companies (0.8%) expect to maintain profits. Conversely, 428 companies (59.7%) anticipate a decrease in performance, losses, or have uncertain forecasts [15][22]. - The disclosure rates for different boards are as follows: Shenzhen Main Board (10.34%), ChiNext (9.91%), Shanghai Main Board (19.25%), Sci-Tech Innovation Board (15.17%), and Beijing Stock Exchange (2.43%) [15]. Industry Performance Analysis Advanced Manufacturing - The mechanical equipment industry shows a remarkable net profit growth rate of 890.28%, with an index increase of 10.16%. The defense and military industry has a profit growth rate of 112.69%, aligning with the index increase of 12.76%. The power equipment industry maintains stable performance with a net profit growth of 12.79% and an index increase of 9.64% [27]. Pharmaceutical and Medical - The pharmaceutical and biological industry reports a net profit growth of 10.35%, with an index increase of 6.66%, indicating a moderate match between performance and market performance [3]. Cyclical Industries - The basic chemical and non-ferrous metal industries exhibit strong performance with profit growth rates of 135.50% and 57.02%, respectively, while the construction materials industry shows a profit growth of 58.19% [3]. - In contrast, the oil and petrochemical industry experiences a drastic decline in net profit by 692.13%, yet the index still rises by 7.74% [3]. Consumer Sector - The social services and automotive industries report extraordinary net profit growth rates of 1900.3% and 587.7%, respectively, with index increases of 9.71% and 5.63%. However, the light manufacturing and beauty care industries face significant profit declines of 65.43% and 59.09%, respectively, while their indices increase [3]. Technology (TMT) - The media industry shows a significant divergence with a net profit decline of 65.62%, despite an index increase of 17.69%. In contrast, the computer and electronics industries demonstrate a positive correlation between profit growth rates of 121.78% and 88.48% and index increases of 12.30% and 13.36% [4]. Financial and Real Estate - The real estate industry reports a staggering net profit decline of 100.5%, while the index increases by 6.66%. The banking and non-banking financial sectors show profit growth rates of 4.58% and 41.16%, respectively, with corresponding index declines [4].

Group 1 - The company Qingdao Tereader Electric Co., Ltd. plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and accelerate overseas business development [1] - The funds raised from the H-share issuance will be used for overseas expansion, R&D investment, construction and upgrading of global smart manufacturing bases, and operational capital [1] - Tereader focuses on "smart manufacturing + integrated services" in the power equipment sector and aims to maintain its leading position through technological barriers and international strategies [1] Group 2 - For the first three quarters of 2025, Tereader reported a revenue of 9.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 686 million yuan, up 53.55% year-on-year [2] - Tereader emphasizes energy digitalization and computing infrastructure as a key direction, providing integrated, modular, prefabricated, and intelligent solutions for clients in data centers [2] - Tereader's subsidiary, TeraCharge, is a leading player in the public charging operation for electric vehicles, focusing on building and operating charging networks [3] Group 3 - The decision to plan for H-share listing is linked to the company's goals for overseas business expansion and international brand development, potentially providing diverse financing channels for R&D and smart manufacturing upgrades [3]

作者 丨易妍君 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓 股名单随之更新。 从持股绝对市值来看，据国信证券经济研究所金融工程组统计， 截至2025年4季度末，主动权 益基金持有市值排名前十的个股依次是：中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿 业、阿里巴巴-W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 编辑丨张星 公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末， 中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包 括主动股票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 截至1月23日收盘，中际旭创 股价 报585 元，总市值6500亿元。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控 股成为基金第二大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七 大重仓股；而宁德时代、腾讯控股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓 股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增 配较多的行业包括有色金属、通信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai 50 Index has experienced a rare nine consecutive days of decline, marking only the second occurrence in its history, with a total drop of 3.55% during this period [2][8]. Market Performance - As of January 23, the total market capitalization of the Shanghai 50 Index constituents exceeds 27 trillion yuan, accounting for over 20% of the total A-share market capitalization [2]. - The index's previous nine-day decline is compared to a similar event in 2013, which saw a cumulative drop of over 9% [2]. - The recent downturn has led to significant capital outflows from ETFs tracking the Shanghai 50 Index, with net outflows exceeding 41.9 billion yuan from January 13 to 23, primarily from the Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF [4]. Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai 50 Index has recorded 33 instances of consecutive declines lasting more than five days, with an average drop of nearly 8% in earlier years [6]. - The average decline during these periods has decreased over time, with the most recent occurrences since 2021 averaging a drop of 4.37% [6]. Future Outlook - Following a series of declines, there is a high probability of a rebound in the A-share market. Historical data indicates that after similar downturns, the Shanghai 50 Index has a greater than 78% chance of experiencing five or more days of gains within ten trading days [8]. - The recent nine-day decline is viewed as a result of style rotation and short-term sentiment release rather than a systemic deterioration of fundamentals [8]. Stock Performance - During the nine-day decline, over 80% of the Shanghai 50 Index constituents experienced at least five days of losses, with notable declines in stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Hengrui Medicine [10]. - Conversely, some stocks, including Langchao Technology and Zijin Mining, have shown resilience, with several companies expected to report positive earnings growth for 2025 [15][18]. - A total of 76 stocks in the electronic, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors are projected to have positive earnings for 2025, with only 11 underperforming relative to the Shanghai Index's 23.4% increase since the beginning of 2025 [15].

最近，A股市场"冰火两重天"，有色金属、国防军工、电子等行业轮番走强，而大盘蓝筹却持续阴跌。 截至1月23日，上证50指数遭遇9连跌；同期，富时中国A50期货亦走出9连跌行情；中证大盘蓝筹25指数表现同样疲软，1月12日至23日，仅有1 月15日微涨，自1月16日起，该指数6连跌。 上证50指数9连跌，历史第二次 截至1月23日，上证50指数成份股总市值超过27万亿元，占全部A股总市值比重超过两成，是大盘蓝筹板块的"晴雨表"。 复盘历史数据，上证50指数仅出现过两次9连跌，第一次发生于2013年5月29日至当年6月13日，区间累计跌幅超过9%；时隔12年，2026年1月13 日至23日的本轮调整，成为该指数历史上第二次9连跌，区间跌幅达3.55%。 伴随指数下行，跟踪上证50指数的ETF资金也大幅流出。1月13日至23日，跟踪上证50的ETF资金净流出额超过419亿元，其中华夏上证50ETF资 金净流出额接近416亿元，资金撤离迹象明显。 从历史走势来看，上证50指数共出现过33次连续5日以上（不含5日）下跌的行情。2010年及以前共11次，其间跌幅均值接近8%，其中2008年6月 3日至同年6月13日（连续 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Trump administration's consideration of a full blockade on Cuban oil imports, which is supported by Secretary of State Rubio, but remains controversial within the government due to humanitarian concerns [1] - The U.S. Treasury Department has announced new sanctions targeting multiple entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping sectors, focusing on those assisting in the export of Iranian oil and energy products [1] - The sanctions include several shipping companies and their associated vessels, with assets under U.S. jurisdiction being frozen and prohibiting U.S. individuals and entities from engaging in transactions with these entities [1] Group 2 - Oil prices have been driven up by two main factors: the potential for U.S. military action against Iran and the impact of a large winter storm in the U.S. [2] - WTI crude oil futures for March closed at $61.07 per barrel, marking a 2.88% increase and the fifth consecutive week of gains; Brent crude oil futures for March closed at $65.88 per barrel, with a 2.84% increase [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of Fenglong Co., Ltd. has experienced significant abnormal fluctuations, leading to self-regulatory measures by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, including trading suspensions for certain investors [2] - Fenglong Co., Ltd. achieved an 18-day consecutive limit-up on its stock price [2] Group 2 - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals announced a risk warning due to a significant short-term increase in its stock price, indicating potential for future declines [5] - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals projected a net loss of 450 million to 675 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [8] - The company cited a legal dispute affecting its financial outlook, with an estimated liability of approximately 314 million yuan due to a warehouse contract dispute [9] Group 3 - Aerospace Electronics warned of significant trading risks due to a "hot potato" effect in its stock, indicating potential for sharp declines [7][14] - The company noted that its stock price has increased by 193.47% since November 27, 2025, significantly outpacing the industry and market indices, suggesting irrational market behavior [14] Group 4 - Tongyuan Environment issued a risk warning, stating that its stock price had risen by 97.29% over ten trading days, leading to a high price-to-earnings ratio of 319.72, far exceeding the industry average [13] - The company expects a net loss of 32 million to 42 million yuan for 2025, transitioning from profit to loss [10][13] - Tongyuan Environment clarified that it has no business ties with the reported individual involved in a stock transfer, emphasizing its independence from external influences [13] Group 5 - Aotewei highlighted that the "space photovoltaic" sector is still in the early stages of exploration and development, with significant uncertainties regarding its commercialization [7][14] - The company noted that its main products are in the ground photovoltaic sector, which has not undergone significant changes, but it faces challenges due to ongoing adjustments in the photovoltaic industry [14]