点击图片查看完整路演回放↑↑↑ 6月4日，我们非常荣幸地邀请到了深圳市日斗投资管理有限公司的创始人、董事长王文先生做客私募排排网直播间， 王总深入剖析了当前资本 市场的关键趋势， 从人工智能产业的突破性进展，到港股市场的投资机会，再到消费行业的价值挖掘， 为我们带来了一场精彩纷呈的投资盛 宴。王总特别提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这一新颖比喻引发了广泛共鸣。以下小编整理出来的直播精华片段： （ 点击图片 查看完整直播回放 ） Q：王总，您近期提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这个比喻非常新颖，能否请您解释一下，什么是"DeepSeek崛起时刻"？ （ 点 击蓝字查看完整直播回放 ） 王文：今年春节期间，市场对贸易战的担忧情绪较为浓厚。与此同时，Deepseek公司的崛起改变了市场对中国人工智能产业的认知。此前普遍 认为中国人工智能技术与美国存在十年以上的差距，数字鸿沟难以逾越 。但Deepseek的出现证明中美技术差距远比预期要小，这显著增强了市 场对中国科技实力的信心。 从供给端观察，在A股IPO节奏调整的背景下，港股市场承接了大量内地优质企业的上市需求，为投资者提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares continue to rebound in May, supported by a series of favorable policies, with a recommendation for fund allocation to maintain a balanced style while slightly favoring growth and focusing on fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the levels of the past three years. The internal resolution of low inflation is crucial, as external factors are less significant due to China's manufacturing competitiveness [2]. - The strategy team believes that emerging technology remains a long-term mainstay in the A-share market, while cyclical finance may become a dark horse. Additionally, cyclical products with improved competitive dynamics and tight supply-demand logic, as well as new consumption areas driven by demand and innovation, are also worth attention [2]. - The market structure of value and growth styles will likely continue to present structural investment opportunities in 2024, suggesting a slight preference for growth in fund allocation while maintaining overall balance [2]. Bond Funds - June is a critical transition period for strategies, recommending a combination of liquidity and yield in position selection, and to prepare for the next round of interest rate declines by switching to more liquid varieties [3]. - With the recovery of the equity market, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value, warranting continued attention [3]. QDII and Commodity Funds - Global central banks' gold purchasing behavior reflects a long-term and ongoing trend, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [3]. - The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3]. - The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle for the bull market, thus recommending appropriate allocation to gold ETFs from a long-term and hedging investment perspective [3].

Market Overview - The trading volume in the A-share market was 1.29 trillion yesterday, indicating that the market could continue to rise due to new capital influx. However, today's volume dropped to 1.5 trillion, suggesting a return to a stagnant trading environment post-holiday [1] - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, with most stocks fluctuating within a narrow range of +1% to -1%, and very few stocks showing movements exceeding 3% [1][3] - Compared to last year, the current market activity is even quieter than before the National Day holiday, raising concerns about the disconnect between market sentiment and actual performance [1] Trading Data Analysis - The number of stocks with a price increase of over 3% is only 358 out of more than 5400 stocks, while 260 stocks have declined by over 3%, indicating a lack of significant market movement [3] - The buying power today was recorded at over 400, returning to the lowest levels seen in recent statistics, despite the index showing a four-day upward trend [3] - The selling pressure remains consistent, with over 200 recorded, suggesting that if the market fails to break upward, short-term investors may start to realize profits, leading to potential selling [3] Sector Performance - The market saw a notable presence of ST (special treatment) stocks, which dominated the top gainers list, indicating a defensive stance from major funds [5] - The lack of strong sector performance is evident, with only a few sectors like computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals showing limited gains, while the majority of stocks are not participating in a collective upward movement [5][6] - The current market environment suggests that if conditions worsen, leading stocks may become safer as major funds are unable to offload their positions in a weak market [5] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment appears optimistic based on external reports, yet the actual trading data reflects a more cautious and stagnant environment, highlighting a potential misalignment between perception and reality [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of A-share companies accelerating their plans to list in Hong Kong, marking a shift from the previous "H to A" trend to "A to H" listings, driven by various factors including market conditions and corporate strategies [2][3]. Group 1: A-share Companies' Move to Hong Kong - As of the end of May, nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed plans to list in Hong Kong, with over 20 having submitted materials or received approval [3]. - The acceleration of A-share companies going public in Hong Kong is attributed to the internationalization of the Hong Kong market, its efficient financing capabilities, and the companies' own global strategies and risk diversification needs [3]. - The surge in Hong Kong IPOs this year is seen as a result of policy benefits, market environment, and corporate strategies, with Hong Kong becoming a key hub for global financing for domestic quality enterprises [3]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies Between A-shares and H-shares - Historically, H-shares have often traded at a discount compared to A-shares, but recent instances, such as the case of Ningde Times, have shown H-shares trading at a premium, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5]. - The differences in pricing between A-shares and H-shares are attributed to variations in market structure and investor composition, with some high-quality companies experiencing periods where H-shares are more expensive than A-shares [5]. - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market has significantly improved, as evidenced by the recent "inversion" where H-shares surpassed A-shares in price [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong - The influx of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to enhance liquidity, improve financing functions, and attract more international capital, injecting new vitality into the Hong Kong market [7]. - Three key investment directions in the Hong Kong market are identified: 1. Technology giants benefiting from AI industry catalysts, particularly in the internet sector, which is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policies and technological advancements [7]. 2. The innovative pharmaceutical sector, which has shown strong performance this year, particularly in the context of innovation, healthcare, and international expansion [7]. 3. New consumption trends driven by technological advancements, focusing on emotional value and personalized experiences, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [7].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a structural bull phase, with large banks reaching new highs while smaller micro-cap stocks also perform well, indicating a mixed market environment rather than a traditional bull or bear market [1][2] - The combination strategy of stable growth in banks and high elasticity in micro-cap stocks is recommended for better returns and easier management, as it aligns with the current market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment has led to increased liquidity, benefiting small-cap stocks that are more sensitive to liquidity changes, thus presenting numerous profit opportunities [2][3] - The banking sector's advantages are highlighted by its relatively high dividend yield, providing stable returns for investors, while long-term funds like insurance capital show a preference for bank stocks, supporting their long-term growth [2][3] Group 3 - The 中证2000增强ETF (SZ159552) has shown impressive performance, with a rise of over 60% since its inception, significantly outperforming the 沪深300 index and achieving a cumulative excess return of 26.17% [3][5] - The 银行ETF优选 (SH517900) tracks the bank AH index and employs a dynamic allocation strategy to achieve better returns, having outperformed the 中证银行全收益指数 since its launch [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **Chinese economy** and its transition from a debt-driven cycle to a more sustainable growth model driven by supply constraints, indicating a healthier economic path with significantly reduced endogenous volatility [1][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Output and Resilience**: Despite facing challenges from US-China tariffs, China's industrial output structure is optimizing, with mid and downstream manufacturing showing strong resilience. The data indicates a decline in volume but stable prices and profit growth, suggesting an improving supply landscape [1][5][9]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Capital expenditure by Chinese listed companies has decreased since 2021, currently at low levels. However, as the supply structure improves, the profit weight of midstream manufacturing is increasing, while downstream consumer manufacturing is slowly recovering, indicating potential for stable growth in the future [1][6][7]. - **Technological Development**: The advancement in technology, particularly in robotics, drones, and new drug development, is enhancing China's industrial resilience and promoting stable, sustainable economic growth [1][12]. - **New Consumption Trends**: There is a notable increase in demand from middle and low-income groups, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, which are leading the consumption recovery. However, the overall recovery remains weak [1][15][16]. - **Profit Expansion Model Shift**: The profit expansion model in China's capital market is shifting from being driven by capital expenditure to being based on supply constraints. This change suggests that industry leaders with stable cash flows will see an increase in valuation levels [1][17][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Economic Impact**: The US debt crisis and policy adjustments may lead to a shift in the global economy towards an inflationary logic rather than recession, positively impacting global markets and potentially accelerating the appreciation of the Renminbi [1][13]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand landscape is improving, with a gradual recovery expected in mid and downstream manufacturing. This improvement is not driven by demand but by a rebalancing of supply and demand [1][10][11]. - **Long-term Renminbi Appreciation**: The long-term trend indicates a potential appreciation of the Renminbi due to the gradual decline of the dollar's global dominance, supported by China's manufacturing and geopolitical strengths [1][19][20]. - **Impact on Capital Markets**: The influx of capital from the US into the Chinese market is expected to drive asset prices up, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, which may also reflect in the A-share market [1][24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its industries.

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by the emotional spending trends of the younger generation, particularly the Z generation, leading to high performance in stocks like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has seen leading stocks like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold achieving year-to-date increases of over 160% and 300%, respectively [1]. - The emotional consumption trend among the younger demographic is reshaping the market, with over 40% of their purchasing behavior driven by emotional satisfaction [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (fund code: 159245) is currently being issued, providing investors with a convenient tool to invest in the new consumption sector [1][4]. - The ETF tracks the National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme, which captures high-growth trends in the new consumption sector [4]. Group 3: Policy and Capital Flow - Strong underlying consumer demand is complemented by policy incentives and inflows of southbound capital, which are driving the consumption sector's strength [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.1 trillion yuan in sales generated from five major categories by May 31 [3]. - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding 610 billion yuan by June 3, focusing on non-essential consumption and technology sectors [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current period is seen as an optimal time to invest in the Hong Kong new consumption sector, with clear signs of consumption recovery and improving liquidity in the market [4]. - The leading new consumption companies are still in the early stages of overseas expansion, indicating substantial growth potential [4].

（原标题：普通投资者，要如何把握港股投资机遇？） 2025年初至今的港股市场相当热闹。年初以来，港股主流指数表现领跑全球资本市场，出现了很多现象 级的股票。近期，政策暖风吹拂下，不少大公司纷纷赴港二次上市，丰富了港股市场的可投资选择。 从Wind数据显示的行情表现来看，截至5月30日，今年以来恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技指 数三大指数均实现超15%的正收益，在全球重要资本市场指数中领跑。尽管4月受关税政策以及全球经 济形势数据等因素的影响，港股行情出现波动，但5月以来回暖显著。 另据Wind数据，截至5月30日，今年以来，南向资金共计净买入港股市场6509.42亿港元，不到半年的时 间，该金额已经是历年第三高，仅暂时排在2024年、2020年分别创下的8079亿港元、6721亿港元的纪录 之后。这意味着，香港市场愈发成为内地投资者配置重要的一环，而南向资金的净流入也带来了港股市 场的流动性繁荣。 在基本面向好、流动性改善等多重因素推动下，港股市场正迎来复苏的新格局，走向价值重估的新时 代。其中，科技、创新药和消费三大板块表现尤为突出，成为推动市场上涨的核心动力。 在这背后，港股市场的生态环境发生深刻改 ...

Group 1 - The rise of new consumption stocks in the A-share market is driven by the need for domestic demand due to complex global economic conditions, leading to significant price increases in these stocks [1] - Over 50% of young consumers prefer to spend on personal satisfaction rather than traditional luxury goods, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1] Group 2 - Retail investors often struggle to time their trades correctly, leading to losses, as they may misinterpret market signals and follow trends without understanding the underlying data [3] - The disparity between retail and institutional investors' perspectives can result in retail investors buying at peaks and selling at lows, often leading to significant losses [3] Group 3 - Understanding institutional trading behavior through data analysis is crucial for retail investors to avoid being misled by market movements [5] - High institutional activity, indicated by dense orange bars in data visualizations, suggests strong institutional interest, while a lack of such activity may indicate that institutions have exited their positions [7][9] Group 4 - Recognizing market manipulation tactics, such as "washing" where institutions sell off shares to scare retail investors into selling, is essential for making informed investment decisions [10][12] - Key indicators for identifying these tactics include the persistence of institutional activity and signs of short covering [13] Group 5 - The primary risk for retail investors lies in information asymmetry, making it vital to gather accurate market information to make informed decisions [14] - Data is a more reliable indicator than price charts or market sentiment, as it reflects true market behavior and trends [16]

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 | 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | 配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | A股大盘 | > 颠簸与变局将近,以稳应变: | 中佳 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:关税反复,总需求回落压力上升,需关注政策发力的对冲效果; | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落至"9.24"以来的低位,市场观望情绪上升 · | | | | ◆ 政策面:短期内以落实已部署正常政策为主,下半年或有增量政策; | | | | ◆ 外部环境:关税谈判期仅剩月余,不确定性有抬头的风险,且不可预测性较强。 | | | | > 关税豁免期临近结束(7月8日),变盘节点临近,6-7月或先抑后扬:关税豁免期仅剩月余,不确定性 | | | | 抗动或上升,目市场成交活跃度回落,市场临沂变盘。此外,结构上或将出现风格变化,今年以来市场 | | | | 缩圈至更为极致的"杠铃"策略 -- 大盘权重+微盘,即以银行为代表的权重以及以微盛股指数为代表 | | | | 的方向表现更为突出。但这一趋势当前面临 ...