证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 03 18 年 月 日 比亚迪（002594.SZ） 超级 e 平台开启纯电兆瓦时代，员工持股夯实发展基础 事件：1）公司召开超级 e 平台技术发布暨汉 L、唐 L 预售发布会；2）公 布 2025 年员工持股计划（草案）。 推出超级 e 平台，开启纯电兆瓦时代。1）全球量产最高充电参数：1000V 电压、1000A 电流、10C 充电倍率、1MW（1000 千瓦）充电功率。2）"兆 瓦闪充"超充技术，5 分钟续航+400 公里，规划 2025 年建成超 4000 座 兆瓦闪充站，兼容公共充电桩，支持双枪充电提升效率。3）新一代驱动电 机与碳化硅功率芯片，其中驱动电机转速 30511rpm、最大功率 580kW、 功率密度 16.4kW/kg，碳化硅功率芯片实现 1500V 电压等级。4）首批车 型搭载于汉 L、唐 L、仰望 U7、腾势 N9 等车型，其中汉 L/唐 L EV 版预售 价分别为 27-35 万元/28-36 万元。 员工持续计划资金规模大、涉及范围广，有望实现有效激励。1）持股金 额不超过 41 亿元，通过集中竞价、大宗等二级市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [4] Core Viewpoints - The launch of the Super e platform marks the beginning of the pure electric megawatt era, featuring the highest global production charging parameters of 1000V voltage, 1000A current, and 1MW charging power [1] - The employee stock ownership plan, with a total amount not exceeding 4.1 billion yuan, aims to effectively incentivize management and core employees [2] - The domestic market remains strong, with the company expected to maintain a high market share due to continuous new vehicle launches and the implementation of trade-in policies [2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 602.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,117.4 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.1% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 30.0 billion yuan in 2023 to 62.4 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 30.9% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 9.88 yuan in 2023 to 20.55 yuan in 2026 [3] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to enhance its global presence with new model introductions and the establishment of overseas factories, contributing significantly to growth [2] - The report highlights the company's technological advancements, particularly in intelligent driving capabilities, which are anticipated to drive further sales growth [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to release two new electric vehicle models in the second half of 2025, which may create surprises. Continuous investment in AI is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [4][5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards from 169.2 billion to 166.2 billion CNY and from 216.2 billion to 215.6 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 244 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1%, 29.7%, and 13.2% respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down from 13.2 billion to 11.2 billion CNY and from 17.8 billion to 16.9 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 22.8 billion CNY, corresponding to EPS of 5.2, 7.8, and 10.4 CNY [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 123.85 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 144.46 billion CNY, growing by 16.6%, and for 2025, it is projected at 166.2 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.1% [6] - The net profit for 2023 is 12.198 billion CNY, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 58,494.3%. For 2024, it is expected to be 10.671 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.5%, and for 2025, it is projected at 11.153 billion CNY, with a growth of 4.5% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 22% in 2023, decreasing to 21% in 2024, and further to 20% in 2025, before recovering to 21% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19.9, 13.3, and 9.9 respectively, indicating a potential undervaluation in the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to release two new electric vehicle models in the second half of 2025, which may create surprises. Continuous investment in AI is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards from 169.2 billion to 166.2 billion CNY and from 216.2 billion to 215.6 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 244 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1%, 29.7%, and 13.2% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down from 13.2 billion to 11.2 billion CNY and from 17.8 billion to 16.9 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 22.8 billion CNY, corresponding to EPS of 5.2, 7.8, and 10.4 CNY [1] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 123.85 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 144.46 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.6% [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 12.198 billion CNY, showing a staggering year-on-year increase of 58,494.3%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 10.671 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 12.5% [5] - The gross margin for 2023 was 22%, with projections of 21% for 2024, 20% for 2025, and a return to 21% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [5] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.9, 13.3, and 9.9 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 146.11 [8][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved record revenue in Q4 2024, with a revenue of RMB 443 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, driven by a record delivery volume of 158,000 vehicles [2][5]. - The company is expected to launch new models, including the i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, which are anticipated to enhance sales performance [3][4]. - The report adjusts the sales forecast for 2025-2027 down to 690,000, 920,000, and 990,000 units respectively, reflecting increased competition in the mid-to-large SUV segment [13][14]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 1,445 billion and a net profit of RMB 80 billion, with a gross margin of 20.5% [1]. - The Q4 2024 gross margin was reported at 20%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix and policy changes [2]. - The company plans to increase R&D spending to RMB 131 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19% [2][14]. Valuation and Comparables - The report uses comparable companies such as Geely and BYD to derive a valuation, applying a 22x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a premium due to the company's advanced driving capabilities and new electric vehicle launches [5][16]. - The target price of HKD 146.11 represents a 29% premium over the average PE of comparable companies [16][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its dual-energy matrix with the launch of the i8, a mid-to-large six-seat SUV, which is expected to improve market share and customer conversion rates [3][4]. - The company’s self-developed AD Max system has shown significantly lower takeover rates compared to Tesla's FSD, indicating strong competitive positioning in smart driving technology [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q4 2024, reporting a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter since its establishment, with a full-year revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, representing a 92.06% increase year-on-year [4][8] - The launch of the new model B10 has commenced pre-sales, showcasing competitive pricing and advanced features, particularly in the lidar-equipped versions [6][27] - The company has upgraded its technology with the release of the LEAP 3.5 architecture, enhancing smart driving capabilities and overall vehicle performance [20][23] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 92.06% [4][8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 8.38%, with Q4 achieving a record high of 13.3% [11][33] - The company sold over 293,300 vehicles in 2024, with a quarterly average of over 40,000 units sold [14][17] Sales and Revenue Projections - The company expects to achieve revenues of 58.3 billion yuan, 84.0 billion yuan, and 116.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 81.3%, 44.1%, and 38.5% [35] - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at -0.72 billion yuan, transitioning to 24.88 billion yuan in 2026 and 50.81 billion yuan in 2027 [35] Product Development and Market Strategy - The B10 model is positioned to compete strongly in the market with a starting price of 10.98 million yuan for the base model and up to 13.98 million yuan for the lidar version, emphasizing high cost-performance [6][28] - The company plans to expand its product lines with the introduction of multiple models in the B and C series, aiming for annual sales exceeding 500,000 units by 2025 [31][33] Valuation and Market Position - The reasonable valuation for the company is set between 56.16 and 60.84 Hong Kong dollars, reflecting a potential upside of 12.1% to 21.4% from the current stock price [35] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of over 10% with monthly sales of 40,000 units or more, supported by cost control and product structure optimization [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q4 2024, reporting a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter since its establishment, with a full-year revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, representing a 92.06% increase year-on-year [4][8] - The launch of the new model B10 has commenced pre-sales, showcasing competitive pricing and advanced features, particularly in the lidar-equipped versions [6][27] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in revenue and sales, with projections of 50,000 units sold in 2025 and potential to reach 1 million units in the medium to long term [31][35] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 92.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.821 billion yuan, a significant reduction from previous losses [4][8] - The gross margin for the year was 8.38%, with Q4 achieving a record high of 13.3% [11][33] - The average revenue per vehicle in 2024 was 109,500 yuan, while the average cost per vehicle was 100,300 yuan, indicating a notable cost reduction due to scale effects [17] Product Development - The company introduced the Leap 3.5 architecture, enhancing the integration and intelligence of its vehicles, with the B10 model being the first to feature this new system [20][23] - The B10 model is positioned competitively in the market, with pre-sale prices ranging from 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, depending on the features [6][28] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 58.302 billion yuan, 84.036 billion yuan, and 116.348 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 81.3%, 44.1%, and 38.5% [35] - The net profit projections for the same period are -0.72 billion yuan, 2.488 billion yuan, and 5.081 billion yuan, indicating a path towards profitability [35] Market Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-performance electric vehicles, with a focus on cost control and product innovation [34][35] - The competitive landscape includes established players like NIO, Li Auto, and BYD, with the company expected to outperform these peers due to its unique product offerings and strategic partnerships [34]

| 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 12 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 港股通 Q4 毛利率新高并盈利，B10 有望爆款 公司 24 年营收/归母净利+321.6/-28.2 亿，同比+92.0%/减亏 14.0 亿，毛利 率达 8.4%；24Q4 营收/归母净利+134.6/+0.8 亿，同比+155.0%/转正；符 合此前公司业绩预告(24 年营收不低于 305 亿元且毛利率不低于 8%，Q4 实现净利润转正)。25 年公司将迎全球化新车周期，叠加渠道端提前布局和 下沉，LEAP3.5 架构进一步集成降本，我们预计公司 25-27 年营收将保持 高速增长且毛利率持续提升，25 年有望实现全年盈利。维持买入评级。 规模效应+销量结构优化+成本管理，Q4 毛利率创新高并盈利 公司 24Q4 毛利率和净利率达 13.3%和 0.6%，提前一年实现单季度净利润 转正的目标。主要系：①24Q4 销量 12.09 万辆，同/环比+118.5%/+40.3%， 规模效应放大；我们预计 25 年公司销量有望大 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the company to "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to transition from an electric smart vehicle manufacturer to an artificial intelligence (AI) company, with potential for reevaluation in both AI capabilities and automotive performance by 2025 [7][43]. - The AI upgrade strategy includes short-term advancements in high-level intelligent driving and the "Ideal Classmate" application, with long-term goals of embodied intelligence and the concept of a "Silicon-based Family" [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Business - The stability of the range-extended vehicle base and the potential success of new electric models may be underestimated. The market perceives excessive competition for models L6/L7/L8/L9, but the penetration rate of domestic brands in the 300,000 RMB and above market remains low, indicating significant growth potential [8][44]. - The report anticipates that the company will deliver over 500,000 vehicles in 2024, with all models priced above 250,000 RMB, positioning itself in the high-end family SUV segment [14]. 2. AI Upgrade - The company’s AI technology foundation includes a language model (Mind GPT) and a spatial model for intelligent driving, with plans for future integration into a unified model that can process language, images, and actions [32]. - The company has made significant advancements in intelligent driving technology, with multiple upgrades planned for 2024, aiming for L3 autonomous driving capabilities by 2025 and L4 in three years [35][36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The combination of AI potential and the stability of the automotive base suggests that the company is likely to experience a reevaluation. The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 13.35 billion RMB and 19.18 billion RMB, respectively, with a corresponding market capitalization of 225.4 billion RMB as of March 11, 2025, leading to a PE ratio of 17X and 12X for those years [6][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with 2025 revenue projected at 556.7 billion and 2026 at 681.4 billion [5] - The company aims for a breakeven point in 2025, with a delivery target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, including 50,000 to 60,000 for export [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 was 16,747 million, with a projected increase to 55,665 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73.1% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from -3,518 million in 2023 to -423 million in 2025, with a significant increase to 1,921 million by 2027 [8] - The gross margin is projected to rise from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and product mix [8]