分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -12% -5% 2% 9% 15% 22% 29% 36% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,123.09 | 1.41 | | 深证成指 | | 14,208.44 | 2.17 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,719.06 | 1.63 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,611.79 | 1.70 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,311.28 | 2.02 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being bullish. The overall view is that the methanol futures will maintain a volatile and bullish pattern on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Trend and View - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1]. - **Medium - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1]. - **Intraday**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be bullish, and the overall reference view is a bullish run [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply - side factor**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction". Iran, the main source of imports, is in the stage of natural gas supply guarantee and production limitation in winter. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level for the year. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January and February, leading to tight external supply [5]. - **Geopolitical factor**: Due to the large differences between the US and Iran, the "pizza index" of the US Pentagon has risen again, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the domestic methanol futures showed a volatile and bearish trend on the night session of Monday, the downside space of the futures price is limited [5].

Group 1 - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a shift, with traditional broad-based ETFs seeing outflows while high-growth sector ETFs in chemicals, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals are attracting inflows, indicating a focus on AI, price increase chains, and overseas expansion as key investment themes [1] - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (National Big Fund) has been reducing its holdings in several semiconductor companies, which is viewed as a normal investment exit rather than a change in long-term strategy [1] - The demand for AI is driving a price surge in the components industry, particularly for multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCC), with prices in South Korea rising nearly 20% and expectations for continued growth [3] Group 2 - The dye industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with companies like Fulei Ant announcing price adjustments for their products due to rising raw material costs [4] - The trend of private equity firms expanding internationally is evident, with over 130 mainland private equity managers holding Hong Kong licenses, reflecting a growing interest from global investors in Chinese assets [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced final anti-dumping and countervailing duties on erythritol products from China, with specific rates for different companies [8] Group 3 - Playboy has signed an agreement to sell 50% of its Chinese business to UTG Group for a total of $122 million, with cash payments structured over several years [5] - Waymo has acknowledged that its autonomous driving technology relies heavily on remote drivers, particularly from overseas, highlighting the limitations of current automation technologies [6] - Jinhua Bank has been fined 3.7 million yuan due to management failures and improper loan practices, indicating regulatory scrutiny in the banking sector [6] Group 4 - Huayi Brothers' major shareholder is facing a judicial auction of 70 million shares, which could impact the company's control structure [9] - ST Yedao has announced potential delisting risks due to projected financial losses, emphasizing the challenges faced by companies in maintaining compliance with listing requirements [10] - The U.S. stock market indices have collectively risen, driven by technology stocks, with significant gains from major players like Microsoft and Nvidia, reflecting strong investor sentiment in the tech sector [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: With the current oil price having risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium, considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanol has priced in a significant number of negative factors. Given the short - term volatility probability of overseas geopolitics, it is recommended to stop losses on short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Urea**: The current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - **Rubber**: Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term based on the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. Although there are short - term supports such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. - **Polyethylene**: The OPEC + plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of the crude oil price. The downward valuation space of PE still exists. With the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the demand side is declining [21]. - **Polypropylene**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [24]. - **PX**: Currently, PX production remains at a high level, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [27]. - **PTA**: Supply is under high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is declining due to the off - season. PTA is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. There is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to medium - term opportunities to go long [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate is still relatively high. Although imports are expected to decline slightly in February, due to the downstream off - season, the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the medium term. However, there is also a risk of rebound due to factors such as the tense situation in Iran and coal price rebound [32]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 464.20 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline, diesel, and naphtha inventories increased, while fuel oil and aviation kerosene inventories decreased. The total refined oil inventory decreased slightly [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract increased by 1.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit decreased by 64 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in most areas remained unchanged, with a slight decrease in Jiangsu. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton to 1788 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 28 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated with the commodity market. Bulls and bears had different views. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4992 yuan. The overall operating rate increased slightly, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory and social inventories changed accordingly [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene both decreased. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The operating rates of downstream products had different changes [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 91 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory increased [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 61 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory increased [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 20 yuan to 7192 yuan. The operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some enterprises had production status changes. Import volume decreased, and inventory increased [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 26 yuan to 5192 yuan. The PTA operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Social inventory increased, and processing fees increased [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3739 yuan. The overall supply - side operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased. Port inventory increased, and different production methods had different profit situations [31].

A股这7大板块，勾勒出中 国经济全貌 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 妙投团队 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 幸福的人大致相同，不幸的人各有各的不幸。 银河证券研报显示，截至1月31日，2956家A股上市公司已披露2025年年报业绩预告，披露率为54%。其中 电机、地面兵装、个护用品、风电设备预喜率 （包括扭亏、续盈、略增、预增等情形） 超过70%，汽车行 业超过50%，受益于AI算力需求的电子和通信行业，预喜率分别达到45%和37%。这些大体上属于科技、高 端制造、新消费等领域。 而传统行业，大多较为一般。 煤炭、房地产、轻工制造、建筑装饰、食品饮料、社会服务、石油石化等行业预喜率较低，均低于25%； 焦炭、体育、林业、农业综合、厨卫电器、油气开采、白酒行业预喜率更是均为0%；传统行业中预喜率较 高的，主要是非银金融、有色金属、钢铁、公用事业等少数行业。 展望2026年，有些业绩不错的行业，有望继续保持成长。而有些2025年经营惨淡的行业，也有边际复苏的 机会，或者有复苏的预期。 这句话放到宏观经济各个层面中来看，也是如此。有的行业经历着良好的增长，有的行业在期待着复苏的 曙光。 2025年到现在，无 ...

Group 1 - The optimistic expectation for the post-holiday market is supported by factors such as accelerated policy catalysis, improved funding conditions, and the release of some risks from previous adjustments [1][10] - The Ministry of Commerce held a seminar with automotive industry representatives to discuss measures to expand automobile consumption, emphasizing the potential of China's large market and the need for policy support and reform [4] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is guiding companies in the new employment form to improve labor management and protect workers' rights, focusing on major delivery platforms [3][5] Group 2 - The recent announcement of tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce export returns aims to boost the sector by exempting certain goods from import duties and taxes during a specified period [3] - The stock market showed positive trends, with major indices like the Dow Jones reaching new highs, indicating a favorable investment environment [7] - Precious metals and oil prices have seen significant increases, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2% and WTI crude oil prices up by 1.27%, reflecting strong market demand [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that green development is essential for high-quality growth, with a strong commitment from the government towards achieving carbon neutrality and ecological civilization [2][3][5] - The "dual carbon" goals are seen as a necessary strategy for transforming the economy and addressing resource and environmental constraints, reflecting a shift from high-speed to high-quality development [3][4][6] - The global consensus on climate change necessitates a green low-carbon transition, which is crucial for enhancing China's competitiveness in international markets and aligning with global economic trends [4][6][10] Group 2 - The transition to a green economy is aimed at achieving higher quality, sustainable, and resilient development, integrating ecological considerations into all aspects of economic and social development [5][6][11] - Key areas for transformation include the clean energy system, industrial structure upgrades, and technological innovation, which are vital for reducing carbon emissions and enhancing economic stability [8][9][10] - The establishment of a comprehensive green low-carbon policy framework and the promotion of green finance are essential for supporting this transition, with significant growth in green loans and bonds observed [11][12] Group 3 - The importance of public participation in the green transition is highlighted, with initiatives like carbon credit systems encouraging individual contributions to sustainability [12] - Regional differences in resources and industrial bases necessitate tailored approaches to green transformation, with eastern regions leading in innovation and western regions focusing on clean energy development [12]

3、外交部发言人林剑昨日主持例行记者会。记者提问，美国总统特朗普启动的"和平委员会"计划于19日在华盛顿召开首次领导人会 议，外交部能否确认中国是否受邀参加此次会议？林剑表示，此前已经就有关"和平委员会"的问题做了回答，没有新的补充。 行 业 新 闻 1、交通运输新业态协同监管部际联席会议办公室组织对高德打车进行了约谈。约谈指出了高德打车对合作网约车平台管理不到位、 压低运价、应急处置不当等突出问题，并要求高德打车立即落实约谈要求，深刻反思，采取针对性措施，确保全面整改到位，切实维 护司机群体合法权益。 早 报 精 选 1、习近平：建设社会主义现代化强国，关键在科技自立自强。 4、美股纳指收涨近1%，贵金属连续两日反弹。 5、萃华珠宝公告，涉嫌信披违法违规，遭证监会立案。 宏 观 新 闻 1、9日上午，习近平总书记在位于北京亦庄的国家信创园考察科技创新工作，走进展厅察看人工智能、机器人等科技创新成果展示， 并同科研人员和科技企业负责人代表亲切交流。习近平说，建设社会主义现代化强国，关键在科技自立自强。要充分发挥我们国家集 中力量办大事的优势，把各种优质要素集合起来攻关，加快解决突出短板问题，实现我们的战略目标 ...