（作者｜周琦 编辑｜张广凯） 1月中旬，一则资本市场公告在平静的乳业界激起涟漪。 中国乳业龙头伊利宣布，将以"先卖后买再加仓"的操作，增持上游核心伙伴优然牧业。 一进一出，伊利掏出11.73亿港元，对优然牧业的持股比例仅从33.93%微升至36.07%。 2025年10月，原料奶均价3.04元/公斤，较去年同期下跌9.2%，截至2025年12月第三周，主产省份生鲜乳平均价格已跌至3.03元/公斤，价格水平跌回2010 年，创下十年新低。 这已是奶价磨底的第四年，行业哀嚎遍野，伊利为何甘愿在周期谷底加码优然牧业？ 挣钱不易 优然牧业并非传统意义上的牧场公司，而是一个覆盖从牧草种植、饲料加工到奶牛育种、规模化养殖、鲜奶生产的全产业链上游综合服务商。 这种纵向一体化的业务结构，使优然牧业成为国内乳业上游的独特存在。 2025年前6个月，公司营收为102.84亿元，较去年同期增长2.3%；股东应占溢利亏损2.97亿元，亏损同比收窄10.4%。 优然牧业分为"原料奶业务""反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案业务"两大业务。 "反刍动物解决方案业务"是优然牧业的独特优势。 该解决方案包含饲料业务、育种业务及奶牛超市，即向牧场供应 ...

Group 1 - The liquor industry is experiencing a strong rebound, with the major consumption index rising by 1.21% as of 11:24 AM on January 29, 2026, driven by stocks like Hainan Rubber hitting the daily limit and notable increases in Luzhou Laojiao (5.06%) and Gujing Gongjiu (4.06%) [1] - The State Council has initiated measures to boost consumption, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to stimulate consumption and cultivate new growth points in service consumption [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the food and beverage sector is currently at a low point in both fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend [1] - The current valuation of the liquor sector is at a low point historically, with market expectations being pessimistic and a favorable chip structure, suggesting a good entry point for investments [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with particular focus on investment opportunities in the dairy, snacks, and catering supply chain segments [1] Group 3 - The CSI Major Consumption Index includes leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with the top ten stocks accounting for 68.63% of the index, including Yili, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the CSI Major Consumption Index, which encompasses essential consumer leaders from various sectors, with liquor being the largest segment at nearly 38% weight [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Industry - The public fund performance benchmark has officially been implemented, with the preset interest rate research value decreasing by 1 basis point week-on-week [6][7] - The non-bank index fell by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.9 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing a synchronized decline of -0.6% and -4% respectively [6][7] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds decreased by 15.8% week-on-week to 34,429 billion yuan, while the margin financing balance slightly decreased by 0.3% to 2.72 trillion yuan [6] Group 2: TuoJing Technology (688072) - TuoJing Technology is a leading domestic semiconductor thin film deposition equipment company, with a significant revenue increase from 440 million yuan in 2020 to 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 75% [11][12] - The company has established a dual-platform driven structure focusing on thin film deposition and advanced bonding equipment, with a strong market demand evidenced by an order backlog of approximately 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 46% [11][12] - The global thin film deposition equipment market is projected to reach approximately 24.4 billion USD by 2025, with the domestic market estimated at around 10.2 billion USD, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [12][13] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The average price of raw milk has remained low, with a current price of 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01 yuan week-on-week, while the industry is approaching a supply-demand turning point [16][17] - The restaurant sector is showing signs of recovery, with December 2025 retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 45,136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and restaurant income growing by 2.2% year-on-year [16][17] - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.79 percentage points, with snack foods performing well, increasing by 6.12% [18][19]

[Table_Title2] 妙可蓝多(600882) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600882 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价（元)： | 32.46/17.62 | | 目标价格（元）： | | 总市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | 最新收盘价（元）： | 22.78 | 自由流通市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 510.05 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 12 月末至今，公司发布一系列公告：12 月 27 日关于参股并购基金进展及相关风险的提示性公 告，12 月 30 日关于控股股东增持公司股份及后续增持计划的公告，1 月 26 日关于副董事长、总经理、行政总 经理离任暨聘任总经理以及变更法定代表人的公告等。 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 利空落地，专注经营进入新征程 分析判断: ► 参股并购基金相关风险影响确认 2025 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 利空落地，专注经营进入新征程 [Table_Title2] 妙可蓝多(600882) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600882 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价（元)： | 32.46/17.62 | | 目标价格（元）： | | 总市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | 最新收盘价（元）： | 22.78 | 自由流通市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 510.05 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 12 月末至今，公司发布一系列公告：12 月 27 日关于参股并购基金进展及相关风险的提示性公 告，12 月 30 日关于控股股东增持公司股份及后续增持计划的公告，1 月 26 日关于副董事长、总经理、行政总 经理离任暨聘任总经理以及变更法定代表人的公告等。 分析判断: ► 参股并购基金相关风险影响确认 2025 ...

连续亏损两年半的优然牧业，即将等到大股东伊利的"输血"。 1月16日早间，优然牧业宣布，公司拟以不同方式向伊利股份全资子公司博源投资合计发行5.985亿股股份，合计募集资金约23.46亿港元。 作为全球最大原料奶供应商，优然牧业运营着100座现代化牧场。尽管背靠伊利，但依然无法逃脱乳业进入下行周期所带来的冲击，公司已经出现了超150 亿元的短期资金缺口。 对于优然牧业来说，能够在这个时候配股融资，犹如雨旱逢甘霖，但资本市场的态度似乎并不热情。 Wind数据显示，宣布配股后的3个交易日里（1月16日至20日），优然牧业股价不涨反跌，累计微跌0.9%。在此之前的1月15日，公司股价则直接暴跌 10.42%。 在股价下滑之外，优然牧业还面临着业绩压力。自2022年来，其利润持续亏损，2年半累计亏损超20亿元。 只是，等到伊利"输血"后，优然牧业能否"破局"？如果无法修复盈利能力，这笔资金又能维持多久？优然牧业又将如何熬过原奶价格下行周期？ 1 低价配股，伊利拟出手"输血" | 作者 | 王亚静 | 编辑 | 蛋总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美编 | 邢静 | 审核 | 颂文 | 一 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid disbursement of financing through Mengniu's silage loan program, which has significantly improved cash flow for livestock farms and facilitated their expansion [1] - Mengniu's supply chain finance initiative has provided a total of 138 billion yuan in loans, supporting 18,000 upstream and downstream partners and indirectly increasing the income of over 4 million farmers [1][3] - The company has developed over 25 types of financial products to address the financing challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises in the dairy industry, aligning with national policies to promote the sector's growth [2] Financial Support and Impact - Mengniu offers loans with interest rates not exceeding 5%, which is approximately 30% lower than similar financing options in the market, making financing more accessible and affordable [1][3] - The supply chain finance program has covered the entire dairy industry chain, from production to sales, creating a more resilient and stable network of stakeholders [3] - The financial support has helped alleviate the operational pressures on small and medium enterprises, ensuring a stable supply of high-quality milk and enhancing the overall competitiveness of the industry [4] Operational Enhancements - The financial services provided by Mengniu have enabled businesses to seize more development opportunities, as evidenced by a manager who successfully secured a large order due to quick access to funds [5] - Investments in equipment upgrades, facilitated by Mengniu's financing, have led to increased efficiency and reduced customer complaints, further strengthening market competitiveness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable journey of Junlebao, a Chinese dairy company, highlighting its transformation from a struggling regional player to a formidable competitor in the dairy industry, culminating in its IPO in 2026. The narrative emphasizes the strategic decisions made by CEO Wei Lihua, showcasing resilience and innovation in a challenging market environment [4][7][26]. Financial Performance - Junlebao's projected revenue for 2024 is 19.83 billion RMB, with a net profit soaring to 1.114 billion RMB, positioning it as the third-largest player in China's dairy sector, following Yili and Mengniu [5][6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 1.161 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6]. Historical Context - The article outlines a critical period in 2008 when Junlebao faced a severe crisis due to the melamine scandal, leading to a loss of consumer trust. To survive, Wei Lihua made the difficult decision to sell a controlling stake to Mengniu in 2010 [9][10]. - Despite being under Mengniu's control, Junlebao maintained operational independence, focusing on low-temperature yogurt and later expanding into infant formula, which became a key growth area [11][12][14]. Strategic Decisions - Wei Lihua's strategy involved focusing on niche markets, particularly low-temperature yogurt, and innovating with products like the sugar-free yogurt "Jianchun," which addressed health concerns among consumers [11][12][23]. - The decision to enter the infant formula market in 2014 was seen as risky but ultimately paid off, with Junlebao capturing a significant market share by offering competitively priced, fresh products [14][18]. Redemption and Independence - In 2019, Junlebao executed a leveraged buyout to regain independence from Mengniu, with the support of local government and private equity, allowing it to pursue its growth strategy without constraints [17][19]. - This buyout was not just a financial maneuver but a strategic move to unlock Junlebao's potential in a competitive landscape [18][19]. Recent Developments - Post-independence, Junlebao has successfully launched products like "Yuexianhuo" and "Jianchun," achieving significant market penetration and revenue growth, with the fresh milk segment growing by 44.5% in 2024 [22][23]. - The company has established a strong presence in the high-end fresh milk market, capturing a 24% market share, and has become a leader in the low-temperature yogurt segment with a 7.9% market share [22][23]. Conclusion - Junlebao's journey reflects the broader trends in the Chinese consumer market, illustrating how resilience, strategic focus, and innovation can lead to success even in challenging circumstances. The upcoming IPO signifies a new chapter for the company and the dairy industry, establishing a new competitive landscape [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The control of Mengniu over Miaokelando (600882) appears to be entering a new phase following the dismissal of founder Chai Xiu from key positions, with Kuai Yulong appointed as the new general manager [1][10]. Management Changes - Chai Xiu has been removed from the positions of vice chairman, general manager, and legal representative as of January 23, while still retaining his role as a director [1][3]. - Kuai Yulong, who has a strong background with Mengniu, has been appointed as the new general manager, with the legal representative role also changing to him [1][3]. Financial Impact - The dismissal of Chai Xiu is linked to a historical investment guarantee dispute that has negatively impacted Miaokelando's performance, leading to significant asset impairment losses estimated to reduce net profit by approximately 119 million to 127 million yuan [4]. - The company reported a revenue increase of 14.22% year-on-year to 1.39 billion yuan for Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 214.67% to 42.97 million yuan [7]. Market Dynamics - The growth is attributed to the B-end market, particularly in the mozzarella cheese sector, where domestic products are replacing imports [8]. - Mengniu's extensive upstream resources are providing stability in raw milk supply and cost, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic cheese products [8][9]. Stock Performance - Following the management changes, Miaokelando's stock price fell by over 2%, with a current market capitalization of 11.6 billion yuan [11].

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生徐鸿儒 蒙牛对妙可蓝多（600882）的控制或步入新阶段。 1月25日，妙可蓝多公告，柴琇被免副董事长、总经理及法定代表人职务，但继续担任公司董事。同 时，公司聘任蒯玉龙为总经理，法定代表人相应变更为蒯玉龙，其不再兼任公司行政总经理。柴琇为妙 可蓝多创始人。 蒯玉龙则有着浓郁的蒙牛背景。他于2021年随蒙牛入股担任妙可蓝多任财务总监，2025年升任行政总经 理。作为控股股东，蒙牛目前持股超37%。截至2025年末，柴琇依旧为妙可蓝多第二大股东，算上一致 行动人吉林省东秀商贸总计持股15.96%。 需要注意的，基于柴琇被免职，其与蒙牛关系显得有些尴尬。 另据21世纪经济报道记者了解，柴琇对妙可蓝多的种种经营策略，在内部也遭遇了越来越多争议。 眼下，妙可蓝多终于回归增长区间。 2025年三季度，该公司营收同比增长14.22%至13.90亿元；归母净利润同比增长214.67%至4297万元。 背后是B端市场推动，尤其是在马苏里拉奶酪市场实现国产替代。 对此，有头部乳业高管向21世纪经济报道记者解释，蒙牛更庞大的上游牧场资源，对妙可蓝多稳定原奶 规模与成本起到很大帮助。尤其现在的奶价 ...