Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in September remained stable, with marginal recovery in domestic demand driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but performance varied significantly across industries [1][4] Industry Summary - **Upstream Resource and Raw Material Industries**: - Upstream resource products benefited from "anti-involution" policies and supply constraints, leading to increased demand and rising prices during the peak season [1][3] - Upstream raw materials like steel and building materials showed limited improvement due to low investment chain sentiment [1][3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Emerging manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors experienced significant expansion in peak season due to domestic industrial upgrades and recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment activities [1][2][3] - **Downstream Consumer Sector**: - The real estate market showed weak recovery in transaction volumes, with retail sales of major consumer goods continuing to slow down, indicating insufficient performance during the peak season [1][3] Logic Behind Industry Divergence - The shift in policy focus since July has contributed to the divergence in performance between upstream resource products and downstream consumer sectors, with more emphasis on supply-side optimization and less direct stimulus for demand [2] - Domestic industrial upgrades and economic transformation, along with accelerated recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment, have led to the performance divergence between emerging manufacturing and traditional investment chain-related industries [2] September Industry Information Review - **Energy and Resource Sector**: - Coal production checks improved supply-demand dynamics, leading to price increases; metal supply disruptions and seasonal demand recovery also contributed to price rises [3] - **Real Estate Sector**: - Weak recovery in commodity housing transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, with overall real estate investment remaining low [3] - **Financial Sector**: - A-share trading activity reached new highs, with insurance companies seeing continued growth in premium income [3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Mechanical equipment sales showed strong growth, with heavy truck sales increasing further [3] - **Consumer Sector**: - Service consumption showed slight decline, while overall commodity consumption momentum weakened [3] - **TMT Sector**: - Increased activity in domestic and international AI and humanoid robotics sectors [3] - **New Energy Sector**: - Strong demand for energy storage, positive production trends for lithium batteries, and potential early mass production of solid-state batteries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a technology-led cycle, with three key directions for medium to long-term investment: cyclical reversal, growth emergence, and overseas expansion [2] Group 1: Cyclical Reversal - The cyclical sector is expected to see improved profitability and cash flow, driven by technological iteration and innovation [2] - The shipbuilding industry is entering a new cycle due to the long lifespan of ships (approximately 20 years) and the trend towards new energy and environmental protection [3][4] - The recovery of the engineering machinery sector is analyzed through a "three-step recovery" framework, including high export growth, the initiation of a domestic renewal cycle, and stabilization of the real estate market [5][6][7] - The "three-step recovery" will collectively drive a reversal in the engineering machinery industry [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability and cash flow in industries like photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment, enabling technological innovation [8] Group 2: Growth Emergence - The current market cycle is led by artificial intelligence (AI), with a long industrial chain encompassing various applications and hardware [9] - The humanoid robot sector is identified as a promising area, with expectations for large-scale production by 2026 [9] - Investment strategies for humanoid robots should focus on industry leaders and undervalued companies that may transition from "interns" to "full-time employees" within the supply chain [10] Group 3: Overseas Expansion - Chinese companies are pursuing global expansion to mitigate single-market risks and tap into new growth opportunities [11][12] - The investment framework for export-oriented companies should consider whether their products are consumer or capital goods and identify core export markets, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [13] - The emergence of "multinational companies with Chinese genes" is anticipated, which will benefit from diversified capacity allocation and open up new growth ceilings [13]

2025年前三季度，在市场结构性行情主导下，公募基金业绩呈现出明显分化格局。其中，超50只基金净 值实现翻倍，部分科技和医药主题基金成为最大赢家，而重仓传统金融和周期板块的基金业绩表现则相 对一般。与此同时，市场避险情绪依旧高涨，国际现货金价不断创新高，全市场黄金ETF（交易型开放 式指数基金）业绩和份额实现双增。 数据显示，截至9月30日，全市场主动股票型基金年内平均收益率达34.54%，偏股混合型基金年内平均 收益率达34.13%，被动指数基金平均收益率为27.56%。对比来看，主动权益类基金表现较为出色，充 分体现出在结构性行情中主动投资的优势。与此同时，黄金ETF年内平均收益率更是达到41.04%。 业内人士向《国际金融报》记者表示，市场行情或将继续分化，四季度主线有望继续维持科技和创新药 行情。不过，前期涨幅较高的品种可能有较大波动，投资者可从主线行情中关注"高切低"的方向。 而主动权益类基金的高光表现离不开个别赛道的爆发，比如人工智能、算力、人形机器人等大科技赛 道，以及创新药等赛道。前三季度业绩领跑全市场的是永赢科技智选A，区间收益率达到194.49%，排 在第二的汇添富香港优势精选A同期收益率 ...

Superhard Materials - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export control measures on superhard materials, rare earth equipment, and other related items, effective from November 8 [1] - The production and sales ratio of superhard materials in China remains high, indicating a balanced supply-demand relationship, with diamond wire and micro-powder products nearing 100% [1] - The market for CVD diamond films is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [1] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a September sales figure of 330.98 billion NTD, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%, with Q3 revenue reaching 989.9 billion NTD, surpassing analyst expectations [2] - The demand for high-end chips driven by AI investments from global tech giants is providing strong support for TSMC's performance [2] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience a full recovery by 2025, with improved profitability for companies [2] Humanoid Robots - Cloud Deep Technology launched the DR02 humanoid robot, featuring IP66 protection for outdoor operations [3] - The industry is on the verge of mass production, with major companies like Tesla and domestic leaders receiving significant orders [3] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to enter mass production by 2026, driven by advancements from leading companies [3] Rare Earths - Export controls on certain rare earth items will be implemented starting November 8, 2025, expanding previous measures [4] - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth market, with 68.57% of production and 39.21% of reserves [4] - The new export control measures are expected to strengthen China's competitive advantage in the entire rare earth supply chain [4] Physical AI - XPeng Motors announced significant breakthroughs in physical AI, enhancing its ability to simulate the physical world [5] - The development of a large-scale physical AI model is seen as crucial for advancing autonomous driving and robotics [5] - The commercialization of physical AI is accelerating, with practical applications emerging in various sectors [5] Two-Dimensional Semiconductors - Fudan University's research team developed the world's first two-dimensional-silicon hybrid architecture chip, which could revolutionize traditional storage architectures [6] - This technology is expected to provide new pathways for chip development in the post-Moore's Law era [6] - The two-dimensional semiconductor technology is recognized as a key solution to global semiconductor challenges [6] Hydrogen Energy - A research team from Tokyo University of Science developed a high-performance solid electrolyte capable of reversible hydrogen absorption at 90 degrees Celsius [7] - The magnesium-hydrogen battery constructed from this electrolyte shows promising hydrogen storage capacity, nearing theoretical limits [7] - This advancement is expected to play a significant role in renewable energy storage and fuel cell vehicles [7]

Group 1: OpenAI's Strategic Moves - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced plans for "very aggressive infrastructure bets" to meet the future demand for AI models [1] - Altman indicated that more similar partnerships will be announced in the coming months, with collaborations with giants like NVIDIA, Oracle, and AMD being just the beginning [1] - The concept of an "AI closed-loop economy" is central to these initiatives, aiming to transform suppliers into stakeholders through innovative financing structures [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Analysis - Morgan Stanley highlighted that the "circular financing" model is reshaping the AI industry chain but warned of potential risks if AI commercialization does not meet expectations [1] - Goldman Sachs expressed optimism, stating that the current AI market is driven by profits rather than speculation, with a median P/E ratio of about 27 times for seven major tech giants, significantly lower than the 52 times peak during the 2000 tech bubble [2] - Despite high market concentration and increased capital expenditure, Goldman Sachs noted that major players have ample cash flow and negative net debt ratios, indicating limited systemic risk [2] Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market opened positively in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points, marking a ten-year high [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,532 billion, a significant increase of 4,718 billion from the previous trading day [3] - A total of 3,115 stocks rose while 2,186 stocks fell, indicating a generally bullish market sentiment [3] Group 4: Sector Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant gains, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising more than 10% [4] - The performance of gold and copper stocks was particularly notable, with historical trends suggesting that other metal prices may follow gold in a bull market [4] - The recent surge in the non-ferrous sector indicates that the current bull market may have a longer duration, as it follows the gold market's upward trend [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The U.S. has created a favorable environment for continuous interest rate cuts, which may catalyze an increase in non-ferrous metal prices [5] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance but experienced a significant pullback, potentially due to market fluctuations related to key companies [5] - The human-robotics sector is entering a critical phase, with a focus on companies that can deliver substantial benefits and have deep institutional involvement [6]

专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 当清晨的露珠凝起第一缕寒意，当南飞的雁阵划过高远的晴空，时节便悄然踱步至寒露。这是一年中富 有诗意的转折点，秋风褪去了夏末的最后一丝温存，带来了澄澈、清明与一份沉静的期待。 虽然气温逐渐下降，但市场上有不少令人欣喜的"暖意"。建信基金《投资正当"时"》第31话，让我们来 看看寒露节气中的投资新知识。 1、秋钓边品湖鲜，投资也可尝尝鲜 每到寒露时节，深水处太阳已经无法晒透，鱼儿便都向水温较高的浅水区游去，便有了人们所说的"秋 钓边"。同时，随着"西风响，蟹脚痒"，也迎来了一年一度品尝大闸蟹的时节。 都说要当"第一个吃螃蟹的人"，投资中也是如此。今年被视为人形机器人行业发展"元年"，当前或正是 抢占先机的好时候。 人形机器人板块迎来多重利好—— 科技大厂加速入局 全球科技企业正在加速布局人形机器人产业，且国内不少科技公司近期迎来大订单，有望进一步推动产 业发展。 政策端持续催化 近年来，人形机器人成为国家政策中的高频词。今年8月《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》印 发，提出大力发展智能机器人等新一代智能终端。 未来市场空间大 作为下一代生产力工具 ...

Core Insights - 博泰车联 and 商汤智能科技 have signed a two-year strategic cooperation framework agreement to promote artificial intelligence in smart connected vehicles and related fields [1][2] - The collaboration will focus on AI cockpit, large models, humanoid robots, vehicle-road collaboration, integrated cockpit and driving, and international market expansion [1] Group 1: AI Cockpit Development - The companies will jointly develop a multimodal human-machine interaction system that integrates voice, image, gesture, and emotion recognition technologies to enhance the immersive experience for drivers and passengers [1] - They will create an in-car AI assistant based on large models and AIGC technology, capable of real-time Q&A, itinerary planning, and entertainment recommendations [1] - AIGC will be utilized to build an in-car content ecosystem, providing personalized audio, video, and digital human interaction services [1] Group 2: Large Model and Computing Infrastructure - 博泰车联 and 商汤智能科技 will deploy high-performance servers and leverage AIDC infrastructure along with self-developed AI inference and training chips to support computing power [2] - The collaboration will optimize cockpit experiences through a synergy of local edge models and cloud-based large models, enhancing immersive 3D experiences and safety integration [2] - They aim to establish an advanced supercomputing center platform and solutions for the next generation of smart connected vehicles, achieving "chip-cloud integration" capabilities [2] Group 3: Humanoid Robot Development - The partnership will explore cutting-edge humanoid robot fields by integrating core advantages from both companies [2] - 商汤智能科技's visual perception algorithms will be used to develop the "brain" and "visual system" for humanoid robots, while 博泰车联 will contribute its hardware design and engineering experience [2] - The goal is to create a highly flexible and intelligent humanoid robot platform adaptable to various scenarios, aiming to reshape the future of human-machine interaction [2] Group 4: International Market Expansion - 博泰车联 and 商汤智能科技 will leverage international resources and 博泰's overseas business foundation to expand into global markets [3] - They will develop smart connected solutions tailored to different regional regulations and market demands, enhancing global competitiveness [3] Group 5: Company Background and Market Position - 博泰车联 became the first company focused on smart cockpit solutions to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 30 [3] - The company is one of the earliest developers of smart cockpit solutions in China and has established a differentiated "software + hardware + cloud service" integrated model [3] - 博泰车联 holds the highest number of registered invention patents among domestic smart cockpit and connected service solution providers as of December 31, 2024 [3]

Core Insights - The market's performance after the National Day holiday is crucial for the sentiment in the fourth quarter, with a focus on trading volume and sector movements [1] Market Performance - Pre-holiday trading was cautious, with transaction volume dropping to 2.1 trillion, which may indicate that most funds have exited, leaving behind committed investors [3] - The key indicator for today is whether trading volume can exceed 2.3 trillion; a significant increase would suggest a return of funds into the market [3] Sector Focus - Three main sectors to watch: - Technology growth, particularly semiconductors and humanoid robots, which have seen institutional buying [3] - New energy, with strong performance in batteries and energy storage, supported by favorable overseas policy news [3] - Large financial institutions, especially brokerages, which may lead the market if trading volume increases [3] Trading Strategy - Caution is advised on the first trading day post-holiday due to potential volatility; it is recommended to wait for market stabilization before making moves [3] - Position management is emphasized, suggesting a holding level of 50-60% initially, with a gradual increase to 70% if the index stabilizes above 3830 points [3] Investment Rhythm - The importance of finding the right investment rhythm is highlighted, with a focus on where funds are flowing—whether into technology or undervalued sectors [4]

制造专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 字节跳动预计投入 2000 亿资本开支提升 AIDC 算力，国内头部 CSP 云 厂商和运营商预计新建机房功率约 8GW，全球范围内保守估计 25GW，为相关设备带来快速增长。 ASIC 芯片旨在替代 NV 技术路线，减少对台湾供应链依赖，为国产供应 商提供巨大机会，可能 70%-80%采用中国供应链，相当于创造一个 NV 的大市场。 传统 UPS 供电方案在算力波动背景下存在电损高和变频响应效率低的问 题，HVDC 供电更适合现代云计算需求，单瓦价值量显著提高。 液冷系统渗透率较低，但随着单柜功率密度增加，液冷系统将快速放量， 预计明年美国新增机房中 80%-85%将采用液冷架构。 液冷市场空间主要由英伟达等公司的芯片需求驱动，预计 2026 年英伟 达 GB300 芯片出货量对应的液冷市场空间巨大。 人形机器人产业生态体系基本建立，正从技术爆发到商业验证过渡，落 地场景包括特种、工业、教育商业和家庭，商业化落地需具备聪明的大 脑和灵活的身体。 人形机器人关节模组占据成本 70%以上，技术壁垒高，更注重灵活性和 单位体积成本重量，传感器方面，触觉传感技术路线中电容 ...

2025 年我们看到了人形机器人的强劲发展机会，主要催化因素来自于特斯拉 等头部厂商的产业进展，例如 Gen 3 发布及其对零部件需求的推动。预计到 2026 年底，人形机器人月度产销可达 1 万台左右，全年总产量可能在小几万 到 5 万台之间。考虑到头部份额约为 20%-30%，行业总量应在 10 多万台水 平。单台价格合理区间为 2 万至 25,000 美元，其中 BOM 占售价比例约六七 成，即每套 BOM 约 10 万美元。因此，人形机器人零部件全球市场容量预计可 达 100 至 200 亿美元。这一增量市场相当于千元级别汽车零部件市场规模， 其中核心零部件公司如德昌电机控股、拓普集团和肇民科技值得重视。 汽车行业四季度展望 20251008 摘要 欧洲新能源车市场增长确定性强，受益于欧盟碳排放政策，中国车企如 上汽、比亚迪等表现突出，预计将持续受益并成为全球增长最强劲的市 场之一。 人形机器人领域 2025 年迎来发展机遇，特斯拉等头部厂商的产业进展 是主要催化剂，预计 2026 年底月度产销可达 1 万台，零部件市场容量 预计达 100-200 亿美元。 汽车零部件企业在算力投资方面涌现机会，如潍 ...