大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美第二轮贸易谈判将启，美国非农就业强于预期 海外市场多数上涨，美债利率大幅上行。 当周，海外多数上涨，纳指上涨2.2%，仅日经225下跌0.6%。 10Y美债收益率上行10bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌0.2%至99.2，离岸人民币小幅升值。WTI原油大涨6.2% 至64.6美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨0.6%至3308.2美元/盎司。 中美将启动第二轮贸易谈判。 特朗普6月6日宣布，将于6月9日在伦敦与中方开启第二轮贸易谈判，或重 点讨论协议到期后的关税走廊及调整机制、关键矿产出口恢复等问题。美国谈判代表将包括财政部长贝 森特、商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔。 5月美国非农就业强于预期，欧央行6月降息25BP。 美国5月非农新增就业13.9万人，市场预期12.6万人。 失业率维持于4.2%，但数据背后就业市场仍存在走弱迹象；5月美国ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5；欧央行6 月会议降息25BP，拉加德表示降息周期即将结束。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report highlights the participation of women in international trade and the effects of trade and trade policies on women in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru. It examines women's roles in international trade as workers, consumers, and business leaders, proposing recommendations to ensure women benefit from international trade and contribute to regional prosperity [16][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Employment of Women - Women hold fewer jobs directly and indirectly related to trade compared to men, with a 40% lower likelihood of occupying export-related jobs. This disparity is largely due to occupational segregation, with women more prevalent in sectors less involved in international trade, such as health and education [32][60]. - The report indicates that women are less likely to occupy higher-paying, more productive jobs associated with international trade, and this trend has remained stable over time [60][61]. 2. Women Business Leaders in International Trade - Only 10% of women-led businesses engage in international trade compared to 14% of men-led businesses. Women entrepreneurs face challenges such as access to financing and market knowledge, which hinder their participation in international trade [33][34]. - Women-led businesses are more likely to operate in the informal economy, which limits their export potential compared to male-led businesses [36]. 3. Women as Consumers - Lower tariffs benefit low-income households more significantly, with poorer households losing twice as much purchasing power due to price increases from tariffs compared to wealthier households. Spending habits differ slightly between male and female-headed households, but income remains the primary influence [39]. 4. Trade in Services - Women predominantly work and lead businesses in the services sector. Barriers to service trade can increase costs and reduce competitiveness for all businesses, regardless of leadership gender [37]. 5. Trade Facilitation - Women-led businesses are generally smaller and face greater challenges due to cumbersome administrative procedures at borders. However, the report notes improvements in trade facilitation in the studied countries over the past decade, with efficiency gains in customs procedures ranging from 3% to 20% since the implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement in 2017 [38]. 6. Trade Agreements and Gender - Latin American countries have been pioneers in including gender equality provisions in trade agreements, with 40 out of 87 agreements signed by the studied countries explicitly addressing gender issues. All countries involved have committed to the Global Arrangement on Trade and Gender, aiming to promote women's access to trade opportunities [40][41]. 7. Recommendations for Action - The report suggests integrating gender considerations into trade agreements, supporting gender-sensitive policy development, and enhancing data collection disaggregated by gender to better support women's economic empowerment through international trade [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 New First-Tier City Charm Ranking" has been released, highlighting the stability of rankings among first-tier and new first-tier cities, with Xi'an maintaining its position in the top 10 for the past five years [5][7]. Group 1: Ranking Overview - The ranking for 2025 includes 15 new first-tier cities: Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Suzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hefei, Qingdao, Dongguan, Ningbo, and Foshan [5]. - Xi'an ranks 6th among new first-tier cities, maintaining its position from the previous year [5][7]. Group 2: Evaluation Dimensions - The ranking evaluates cities based on five primary dimensions: commercial resource aggregation, city hub characteristics, urban vitality, new economic competitiveness, and future plasticity [9]. Commercial Resource Aggregation - Xi'an ranks 9th in commercial resource aggregation, with significant growth in commercial development, including the addition of over 600,000 square meters of commercial space and 436 new brand flagship stores in 2024, a 24.5% increase from 2023 [9][11]. City Hub Characteristics - Xi'an ranks 6th in city hub characteristics, reflecting its role as a comprehensive transportation hub, with a 25.1% increase in the operation of the China-Europe Railway Express in 2024 [14][15]. Urban Vitality - Xi'an ranks 9th in urban vitality, with a retail sales total of 491.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 2.2% increase year-on-year, and a tourism market that welcomed 306 million visitors, generating 376 billion yuan in spending, up 10.3% [17][19]. New Economic Competitiveness - Xi'an ranks 14th in new economic competitiveness, with a 6.5% increase in industrial output value and a 10.2% increase in output from major industrial enterprises in 2024 [21][23]. Future Plasticity - Xi'an ranks 11th in future plasticity, with over 1,400 research institutions and 83 universities, contributing to a strong innovation ecosystem and attracting a significant number of graduates for employment [25][27].

Core Insights - The digital economy in China has shown significant growth, with the scale ranking second globally and a projected data production growth of 25% in 2024 [2] - The integration of digital technologies into various sectors is enhancing consumer experiences and driving economic development [1][4] Group 1: Digital Economy Growth - China's digital economy scale is expected to reach substantial figures, with data production projected to grow by 25% in 2024 [2] - The total computing power is anticipated to reach 280 EFLOPS, and mobile IoT terminal users are expected to hit 2.656 billion [2] - The country accounts for 61.5% of the global new generative AI patents, indicating a strong position in digital technology innovation [2] Group 2: Digital Infrastructure and Resource Allocation - The construction of digital infrastructure is a priority, with significant achievements in new infrastructure development, particularly in computing power [5] - There are disparities in development between regions and urban-rural areas, necessitating targeted resource allocation to address these imbalances [5] - The release of data element value is crucial, with reforms aimed at promoting efficient and secure data circulation [6] Group 3: Digital Production and Consumption - Digital production capabilities are being enhanced, with platforms like Haier's industrial internet serving 160,000 enterprises to facilitate digital transformation [4] - There is a need to explore the potential of digital consumption by leveraging technologies like AI to create new consumer experiences [4] - Optimizing regulation and addressing consumer pain points are essential for fostering a secure digital consumption environment [4] Group 4: Industry Digitalization - The digitalization of industries is vital, with examples such as smart agriculture and automated mining operations showcasing the impact of data [3] - The integration of digital and traditional industries is expected to expand the scope and depth of the real economy [3] - A balanced approach to digital industrialization and industry digitalization is necessary for sustainable growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets triggered by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting concerns over inflation, economic stagnation, and the long-term trust in U.S. dollar assets [1][38]. Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - Since 1970, there have been 10 notable instances of "triple kill," primarily associated with stagflation concerns, monetary tightening, and a decline in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar [2][19]. - Common triggers include economic stagnation or stagflation worries, monetary tightening to combat inflation, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's relative appeal [2][19]. Economic Stagnation and Inflation - Historical instances of "triple kill" often occurred during periods of economic downturn and high inflation, where the Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy, leading to a dual impact on both stock and bond markets [2][19]. - For example, during the 1973-1974 period, the S&P 500 dropped by 15.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 60 basis points [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's delayed or inconsistent response to inflation has historically exacerbated inflation expectations, contributing to market volatility [9][19]. - In 1987, for instance, the Fed's shift to a hawkish stance led to a significant rise in bond yields and a corresponding drop in stock prices [19][21]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent "triple kill" was primarily triggered by Trump's unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," which raised short-term market volatility and long-term concerns about inflation and economic growth [38][40]. - The tariffs are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [40][48]. Long-term Implications for Dollar Assets - While the tariffs may undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, the article argues that the long-term impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency will take time to materialize [49][51]. - The current structure of U.S. debt and the predominance of domestic holders of U.S. Treasuries suggest that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains intact for now [51][56]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that if negotiations on tariffs or tax cuts progress positively, it could alleviate market pressures and stabilize investor sentiment [56]. - Conversely, persistent stagflation pressures could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates quickly, potentially exacerbating market volatility [56][57].

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) decreased by 0.45% as of May 9, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - Leading gainers included Runhe Software (300339) up 6.24%, Changchun High-tech (000661) up 2.79%, and Small Commodity City (600415) up 2.77% [3] - Major decliners were Maiwei Co. (300751) down 5.78%, Donghua Software (002065) down 5.62%, and Zhenhua Technology (000733) down 5.12% [3] Group 2 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) fell by 0.43%, with the latest price at 0.93 yuan [3] - The fund experienced a turnover of 8.67% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 1.454 billion yuan [3] - Over the past year, the A500 ETF fund had an average daily transaction volume of 3.739 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund saw a significant growth of 627 million yuan in scale over the past two weeks, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's shares increased by 27.6 million over the same period, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In terms of net inflow, the A500 ETF fund received continuous net inflows over three days, with a peak single-day inflow of 208 million yuan, totaling 311 million yuan, averaging 10.4 million yuan daily [3] Group 4 - Bohai Securities noted that since April, market liquidity has changed significantly due to U.S. tariffs on China, with stabilizing funds contributing to a rebound in ETF shares [4] - Structural support in liquidity has helped the market stabilize quickly, with expectations for long-term capital inflows driven by policy support [4] - The A500 ETF fund closely tracks the A500 index, which selects 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from various industries [4] Group 5 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index included Kweichow Moutai (600519), CATL (300750), and Ping An Insurance (601318), collectively accounting for 20.8% of the index [5] - The top ten stocks by weight are Kweichow Moutai (4.28%), CATL (2.96%), and Ping An Insurance (2.46%) among others [7]

成交方面，全天成交额超亿元的股票共有91只，成交额居前的北交所股票有并行科技、开发科技、艾融 软件等，成交额分别为9.20亿元、5.30亿元、4.57亿元。 股票活跃度来看，今日可交易的北交所个股中，换手率超10%的有62只，其中，14股换手率超20%，换 手率在5%~10%之间的有101只，换手率在1%~5%之间的有98只。全天换手率居前的股票有*ST广道、 春光智能、倍益康等，换手率分别为34.66%、33.92%、32.53%。（数据宝） 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，今日可交易北交所个股中，收盘股价上涨的有260只，占可交易个股的 98.11%，收盘涨停的有慧为智能、九菱科技等，收盘涨幅居前的有卓兆点胶、惠同新材、众诚科技， 分别上涨19.85%、19.28%、18.24%。收盘股价下跌的有5只，跌幅居前的有*ST广道、*ST云创、诺思 兰德等，分别下跌23.60%、9.23%、2.79%。 | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价（元） | 涨跌幅（%） | 换手率（%） | 成交额（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 839493 | 并行科技 | 180 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference held by Huaxia Bank aimed to deepen cooperation with state-owned enterprises in Beijing, focusing on high-quality development and innovative financial services to support national strategies and the capital's functional positioning [1][3][10]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - Huaxia Bank signed strategic cooperation agreements with 16 major state-owned enterprises in Beijing, marking a new chapter in their collaboration [1][3]. - The event emphasized the importance of state-owned enterprises as key drivers of Beijing's economic development and aimed to establish a new model of cooperation between government, banks, and enterprises [3][8]. Group 2: Financial Services and Innovations - Huaxia Bank introduced various financial products and services, including digital financial solutions and cross-border financing, to create a diversified financial service ecosystem for state-owned enterprises [5][6]. - The bank launched the "Shuyitong" series of products to address financing challenges in industries such as automotive, logistics, and consumption, positioning itself as a partner in industrial digital finance [5][6]. Group 3: Commitment to Quality Service - The bank provided a "Financial Service Card" to the signed state-owned enterprises, ensuring dedicated service teams and a 24/7 response system to meet their financial needs [6][8]. - Huaxia Bank aims to build a financial empowerment network covering the core industrial chain of the capital, contributing to the establishment of a high-quality development ecosystem for state-owned enterprises [8][14]. Group 4: Future Directions - The bank's leadership highlighted the importance of aligning with national strategies, focusing on technological innovation, green transformation, and digital empowerment to provide comprehensive services to state-owned enterprises [12][14]. - The conference was seen as a starting point for further deepening cooperation and creating benchmark projects in infrastructure, emerging industries, and achieving carbon neutrality goals [10][14].