Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's statement on the cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices at the opening, causing a general decline in chemical products. PE supply is contracting due to the conflict - related shutdown of Iranian polyolefin plants and domestic PE device maintenance, while demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Overall, the current supply - demand pressure of PE is not significant, and attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.74%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 40.1% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management** - For high - inventory situations worried about price drops, shorting L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7300 - 7400 range can prevent inventory depreciation. Selling L2509C7300 call options at a 50% ratio in the 70 - 120 range can collect premiums and lock in selling prices [2]. - For low - inventory situations, buying L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7100 - 7200 range can prevent price increases in procurement. Selling L2509P7100 put options at a 75% ratio in the 50 - 100 range can collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Core Contradictions - Supply contraction: The Israel - Iran conflict led to plant shutdowns in Iran, and domestic PE devices are in maintenance, with full - density device conversion reducing the supply of standard products. Demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. Bullish Factors - PE devices are in seasonal maintenance until July. The high HDPE - LLDPE price difference leads to full - density device conversion, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the supply pressure. The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year. The off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - The plastic main - contract basis, L01, L05, and L09 contracts all showed certain changes compared to previous days and weeks. Month - to - month spreads (L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1) and the L - P spread also had significant changes [6][8]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads** - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China changed, and regional spreads (East - North, East - South) also showed fluctuations [8]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads** - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as between LDPE and LLDPE films, changed [8]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits** - Brent crude oil prices, US ethane prices, coal prices, and methanol prices all changed, affecting the processing profits of different PE production methods [8].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-24 新装置顺利投产，供应端压力渐增 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7444元/吨（+29），PP主力合约收盘价为7262元/吨（+20），LL华北现货为7440 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7500元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为7260元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-4元/吨（-69），LL 华东基差为56元/吨（+21）， PP华东基差为-2元/吨（-50）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-264.8元/吨（+121.8），PP油制生产利润为-664.8元/吨（+121.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-192.8元/吨（-47.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为26.6元/吨（-20.1），PP进口利润为-306.4元/吨（+9.9），PP出口利润为-4.7美元/吨（-1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%）， ...

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-23 免责声明 进一步恶化存疑。短期PP2509预计震荡走势，日度K线关注7190附近支撑与7310附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7200 | 12 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7187 | 2 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side calcium carbide prices are weak, while ethylene prices show a slight rebound, but overall, the valuation drive remains insufficient. Recently, the strong performance of crude oil due to geopolitical factors has provided some stimulation to the market. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be weak, and attention should be mainly paid to external influences [5]. - Operationally, aggressive investors can take a small - scale long position. For the 2509 contract, the support level can be referred to as 4780, and investors can buy and hold put options for protection [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the negative value of the PVC 1 - 5 spread narrowed and was higher year - on - year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure still maintained a contango pattern with higher prices in the distant future, indicating that expectations are stronger than the current situation [12]. - The 9 - 1 spread was weakly stable last week and was higher year - on - year. The basis of the main contract remained stable month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 PVC Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 28 million tons, with the second - phase 300,000 - ton/year new capacity of Shaanxi Jintai. Last week, the PVC output was 462,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.33%, mainly due to the maintenance of Henan Yuhang and Xinjiang Zhongtai Huatai plants [19]. 3.2.2 Calcium Carbide Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity is 20.33 million tons, accounting for about 72.6%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.72% [22]. 3.2.3 Ethylene Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective ethylene - based PVC production capacity is 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.4%. Last week, the output was 118,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.71% and a year - on - year increase of 3.48% [25]. 3.2.4 PVC Start - up and Maintenance - Last week, the upstream PVC start - up rate was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 125,700 tons [28]. - Last week, the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points, at a high level in the same period. The start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.48 percentage points, at a relatively low level in the same period [32]. 3.2.5 PVC and Product Imports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 85,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. From January to April, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 6.8615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.11% [37]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - From January to April 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 6.7463 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.33%. Last week, the PVC production - sales ratio was 140%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2 percentage points [42]. 3.3.2 Downstream Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of downstream products was generally weak. Affected by the traditional rainy - season off - season, the start - up of pipe and profile enterprises continued to decline, and the real estate at the macro level still dragged down the terminal demand [45]. 3.3.3 Exports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC was 1.3365 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.27%, with an obvious export - grabbing effect. PVC powder was mainly exported to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., and the proportion of exports to India was 43.9% [52]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC floor covering materials was 141.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.67%. They were mainly exported to Europe and the United States. Among them, the proportion of exports to the United States was 27.6%, Canada 9.4%, Germany 5.6%, Australia 3.6%, and the Netherlands 3.5%. Against the background of the tariff war, the export of products to the United States is expected to continue to shrink [54]. 3.3.4 Real Estate and Infrastructure - From a macro perspective, PVC is a commodity with a post - cycle demand in the real estate industry, and its downstream demand is closely related to the real estate industry. From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8%, the completed area decreased by 17.3%, and the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. The real estate market generally performed stably, and local policy optimization mainly focused on optimizing the provident fund policy. In the first half of June, driven by improved supply and real - estate enterprise promotions, the new - home market in key cities continued to recover, but the differentiation between cities and between new and old projects would still continue, and policy support was still needed to stop the market decline and promote stability [57]. - In terms of infrastructure, in May, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates were 9.2% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points from January to March. As constraints are expected to be further alleviated, infrastructure investment may maintain high - speed growth [57]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (21 companies) was 355,100 tons, remaining the same month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 41.19%. The PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 569,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and export deliveries increased [59]. - The enterprise inventory was 401,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% and a year - on - year increase of 25.23%. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [64]. 3.5 Valuation 3.5.1 Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide - Last week, the blue - coke price remained stable and was lower year - on - year. The calcium carbide price was weakly stable, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,350 yuan/ton. The power cost decreased, and the decline in the start - up rate of calcium carbide enterprises was less than expected [68]. 3.5.2 Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride - Last week, the ethylene price rebounded month - on - month and was slightly lower year - on - year. The domestic and imported ethylene supplies were relatively tight, and the sharp increase in ethane and crude oil pushed up costs. The vinyl chloride price remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year [71]. 3.5.3 Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine - Last week, the price of liquid caustic soda decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year. The price of liquid chlorine decreased month - on - month and was weaker year - on - year [74]. 3.5.4 PVC Profit - Last week, the loss of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC narrowed slightly month - on - month but was still at the highest loss level in the same period over the years; the loss of ethylene - based PVC widened again month - on - month and was also at the weakest level in the same period [77]. 3.5.5 Chlor - Alkali Profit - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [81].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为79.25%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量34.908万吨，环比减少 0.44%,乙烯法企业产量11.692万吨，环比减少5.15%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为45.8%，环比减少0.47个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型 材开工率为37.55%，环比减少0.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 42.94%，环比减少1.44个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nylon industry in China is accelerating its transformation towards high-end and low-carbon materials, driven by the domestic production of key raw materials and the increasing demands from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and intelligent robotics [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Context - The full-scale production of the key raw material, adiponitrile, for PA66 has been achieved, alongside breakthroughs in the synthesis technology of specialty materials like high-temperature nylon and long-chain nylon [1]. - Emerging applications in sectors such as new energy vehicles, electronics, and intelligent robotics are raising the performance requirements for nylon materials, creating both opportunities and challenges for the industry [1]. Group 2: Workshop Details - DT New Materials will host the "Nylon Modification and High-Performance Processing Technology" advanced training course on July 4-5, 2025, in Ningbo, focusing on high-temperature nylon, performance additives, and innovative formulation design [2]. - The workshop will feature industry experts sharing practical experiences and innovative ideas to enhance technical innovation and product quality in the nylon sector [2]. Group 3: Workshop Agenda - The agenda includes various topics such as the characteristics and modification paths of high-temperature nylon resins, the impact of additives on glass fiber-reinforced nylon performance, and the application of high-performance glass fibers in nylon composites [3][4]. - Sessions will cover the classification and advantages of halogen-free flame retardants, as well as solutions for aging resistance in nylon materials [6][7]. Group 4: Expert Profiles - The workshop will feature experts with extensive experience in nylon modification and application development, including professionals from leading companies in the materials sector [12][13][20][26]. - Notable speakers include executives from Shanghai Beigang New Materials, DT New Materials, and Klaus-Maffei Machinery, each bringing a wealth of knowledge in polymer processing and material innovation [13][20][23][26].

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the modified polypropylene (PP) industry, including its development background, supply and demand situation, market size, and competitive landscape, offering valuable insights for companies and capital institutions to make informed business and investment decisions [2][3][4]. Industry Overview - The report defines the polypropylene (PP) industry and its classifications, as well as the modified polypropylene (PP) industry and its relevant terminology [2][3]. - It outlines the authoritative data sources and research methods used in the report [3]. Macro Environment Analysis - The report analyzes the policy environment affecting the modified polypropylene (PP) industry in China, including regulatory frameworks and standard systems [4]. - It examines the economic environment, including the current macroeconomic development and its correlation with the modified polypropylene (PP) industry [4]. - The social environment's impact on the modified polypropylene (PP) industry is also discussed [4]. - Technological advancements and key emerging technologies in the modified polypropylene (PP) industry are analyzed, along with research and innovation outcomes [4]. Global Market Insights - The report investigates the global development history of the modified polypropylene (PP) industry and its macro environment, including economic, political, and technological factors [4]. - It assesses the current market size and competitive landscape of the global modified polypropylene (PP) industry, including key regional markets [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report details the supply and demand conditions within the Chinese modified polypropylene (PP) industry, including trade status and market主体 types [5][6]. - It provides insights into the market supply capabilities and levels, as well as the demand characteristics and current status [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive structure of the modified polypropylene (PP) industry in China is analyzed, including the entry processes of competitors and their strategic layouts [6][7]. - The report discusses the market concentration and competitive dynamics using Porter's Five Forces model [6]. Investment and M&A Analysis - The report outlines the investment and financing conditions in the modified polypropylene (PP) industry, including funding sources and trends [6][7]. - It reviews merger and acquisition activities, including motivations and case studies [6][7]. Industry Chain Structure - The report analyzes the structure of the modified polypropylene (PP) industry chain, including upstream supply markets and downstream application markets [6][8]. - It discusses the value attributes and cost structures within the industry [6]. Strategic Recommendations - The report includes a SWOT analysis of the modified polypropylene (PP) industry, assessing its development potential and future trends [10]. - It identifies investment opportunities within the industry, including weak links in the supply chain and emerging market segments [10].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report predicts the price range of polypropylene (PP) for the month to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 13.3% over 3 years [1] - It provides hedging strategies for inventory and procurement management, including using futures and options contracts [1] - The core contradiction is that the PP market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, limiting its upward space. The supply pressure is high due to expected decline in planned maintenance and upcoming new installations, while demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and poor downstream profits [2] - There are some利多 factors such as high - level ongoing device maintenance leading to marginal supply reduction and the current low - level of the market limiting its downward space [3] - There are also利空 factors including new installations during the Dragon Boat Festival and more in 6 - 8 months, a decline in exports after the seasonal peak, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season and poor profits [4] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The polypropylene main basis on 2025 - 06 - 10 was 139 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 21 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 27 yuan/ton. PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also had corresponding price changes [1][5] - The PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 month spreads had specific values and daily/weekly changes [5] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different changes on 2025 - 06 - 10 compared to previous days, and regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products (e.g., homopolymer injection - molding to wire - drawing) had various daily and weekly changes [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price, US propane price, Northwest coal price, and East China methanol price had different changes. Different PP production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) had corresponding profit changes [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese plastic processing industry is undergoing a comprehensive transformation driven by innovation and green circular economy, facing challenges such as market demand insufficiency, environmental pressures, and technological bottlenecks as it moves towards the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese plastic processing industry has become the world's largest in terms of production, consumption, and export, with a total production of 77.076 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [2]. - The total export value of plastic products reached $106.09 billion in 2024, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, while imports totaled $17.8 billion, up 3.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of $88.29 billion [2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - The industry is grappling with insufficient effective market demand, rapid changes in demand structure, severe internal competition, and intense competition in low-end products [3]. - Environmental pressures and sustainability challenges are significant, with increasing restrictions on single-use plastic products and high costs associated with recycling [3]. Group 3: Strategic Directions for Transformation - The China Plastic Processing Industry Association has proposed four strategic directions for the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan": focusing on world-class technology, enhancing public health, addressing national needs, and promoting resource integration [4]. - The market for the plastic processing industry is expected to grow steadily during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with technological innovation as the core driving force, particularly in high-performance engineering plastics and smart manufacturing [4][5]. Group 4: Green Transformation - Green transformation is elevated to a strategic level, with a focus on the large-scale application of bio-based plastics, breakthroughs in chemical recycling technology, and the establishment of low-carbon certification systems [5]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will compel export companies to accelerate their low-carbon transformation, intensifying competition over technological standards [5].

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-03 统消费旺季，近期国际油价走强。PP供需偏弱格局未改，不过需关注油价波动导致短期价格反弹。技术上 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 ，PP2509下方关注6840附近支撑，上方关注6940附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6884 | 9 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6822 | 20 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨 ...