【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。只是 印度反倾销税即将执行，贸易商开始观望，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。本周社会库存小 幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍 为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/ 年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装 置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Factors contributing to this include a decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high social inventory, ongoing real - estate adjustments, upcoming Indian anti - dumping taxes, high futures warehouse receipts, and falling prices of coking coal and coke suppressing market sentiment [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 slightly declined and remains at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC alleviated concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious [1]. - From January to October 2025, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. Investment, new construction, and completion areas have significant year - on - year declines, and the growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further dropped. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacities such as Tianjin Bohua are in operation, and some enterprises' maintenance is about to end [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4416 yuan/ton, a high of 4490 yuan/ton, and closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 1.15% decline and a decrease of 25423 hands in positions to 1432396 hands [2]. - On November 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 yuan/ton, strengthening by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC开工率 to decline. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, and Qingdao Gulf are in production [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a 14.7% year - on - year decrease. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease. The sales volume was 6901.7 billion yuan, a 9.6% decrease. New construction and completion areas also decreased significantly. As of November 16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although it decreased slightly, it is still high [6].

格隆汇11月20日丨银禧科技(300221.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司的PPO业务材料分为PPO注塑用改性塑料 与化工合成的电子化学品PPO材料。PPO注塑用改性塑料是公司成熟的产品，共用改性塑料产线，产能 充足。公司的电子化学品PPO年设计产能为300吨，但受多种因素影响，实际产能远低于设计产能，目 前还在爬坡中。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PET industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand structure and processing fee levels, leading to a stable operational performance for the company [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company has implemented industry initiatives since July to combat internal competition, resulting in a decrease in overall production load due to scheduled maintenance [1] - The company emphasizes a commitment to steady operations and aims to reward investors through performance and long-term value growth [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The overall supply-demand structure of the PET industry continues to improve, with processing fees showing a positive recovery trend [1]

Summary of Jinfa Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinfa Technology - **Industry**: Modified Plastics Key Points Sales and Profit Projections - Jinfa Technology expects modified plastic sales to reach **3 million tons** in 2025, with a net profit of approximately **3 billion yuan**, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly **20%** driven by demand from the **new energy vehicles** and **home appliance exports** sectors, as well as market share gains [2][3][5] - For 2026, modified plastic sales are projected to maintain a growth rate of **15%-20%** [2][3] Product Sales Structure - The sales structure of modified plastic products remains stable, with the automotive sector accounting for about **45%**, home appliances for **16%-17%**, and electronics for **15%**, collectively exceeding **70%** [2][6] - Emerging sectors like new energy, toys, and packaging are growing rapidly but still represent a small overall share [2][6] Competitive Advantages - Jinfa Technology is the largest modified plastic enterprise in China, with competitive advantages in **R&D investment** (3%-4% of revenue), talent acquisition, and comprehensive solutions [2][8][9] - The company has established **7 overseas bases** to enhance global operational capabilities [2][9] Financial Performance and Challenges - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jinfa Technology's overall performance met expectations, with modified plastic sales approaching **2.1 million tons** [3] - The petrochemical business is expected to incur losses of **1.4-1.5 billion yuan** in 2025, with potential improvements in 2026 if market conditions stabilize [4][15] - The company anticipates a **6-7 million yuan** impact on profits due to the stock incentive plan in 2025 [12] Future Growth and Capacity Expansion - In 2026, Jinfa Technology plans to introduce new production capacities for high-temperature nylon, LCP, and specialty nylon, expecting sales growth of over **30%**, contributing an additional **1 billion yuan** to net profit [2][13] - The company aims to double total sales from **3 million tons** to **6 million tons** over the next five years, with overseas sales reaching **1.5 to 2 million tons** [4][21] Special Materials and Innovations - The special materials segment, particularly LCP, has seen growth exceeding **50%** in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by demand from AI and high-speed connectors [11] - Jinfa Technology is developing materials for humanoid robots, focusing on high-temperature nylon and PEEK, with potential applications in joints and bearings [17][18] International Expansion - Jinfa Technology is expanding into Poland and Mexico, with production expected to start in the second quarter of 2026, targeting a total capacity of **300,000 tons** by 2030 [19][20] - The company emphasizes its competitive edge in the international market through a diverse product range and strong global supply chain capabilities [20] Collaboration and Capital Expenditure - Jinfa Technology collaborates with Siemens on material development and technology exchange, enhancing their partnership [22] - The company plans to maintain cautious capital expenditure, focusing on promising areas like new materials and biodegradable materials, with annual spending expected to remain around **3 billion yuan** [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 dropped 2.5 percentage points to around 87%, at a neutral level, due to new maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang LDPE 1 line [15] - PP企业开工率 fell 0.5 percentage points to around 83%, at a neutral - low level, with new maintenance devices such as CNOOC Daxie old line [15] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 14, PE下游开工率 decreased 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, packaging film orders are slightly decreasing [21] - As of the week of November 14, PP下游开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared with last year [21] Plastic基差 - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are rising, and the 01 contract basis has dropped to 247 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [26] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [30]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PP filament market has shown a downward trend in prices since 2025, with the price gap between South China, East China, and North China narrowing from January to October, but recently widening again. Supply pressure in South China is expected to ease due to concentrated maintenance of PP filament facilities, leading to an anticipated widening of the price gap between South China and other regions [1][5]. Price Trends - Since 2025, prices across major regions have exhibited a consistent downward trend, primarily due to declining crude oil prices and increased supply from new production facilities. The operating rates remain high, contributing to supply-side pressure, while insufficient new orders from downstream factories have limited demand, further suppressing PP prices [1][3]. Regional Price Differences - The price gap between South China and North China reached a maximum of 270 CNY/ton, while the gap between South China and East China peaked at 145 CNY/ton. The minimum gaps recorded were -130 CNY/ton for both South China-North China and South China-East China, and -60 CNY/ton for East China-North China. The price differences among the three regions narrowed from January to October but have recently expanded [3][5]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent price decline in North China has been more pronounced compared to South and East China, leading to increased price disparities. Despite new installations in South and East China, maintenance of several facilities has countered the pressure from new production, resulting in relatively stable prices in these regions. In contrast, North China continues to face significant supply pressure due to its large production capacity [5][7]. Future Outlook - In the short term, no new production facilities are expected to come online nationwide. In South China, several production lines are currently offline, and maintenance of existing facilities is scheduled, which will reduce supply pressure and strengthen price support. Conversely, the East China region has seen fewer maintenance activities, while North China faces strong supply impacts, limiting support from the supply side. It is anticipated that the price gap between South China and other regions will continue to widen, with increased allocation of resources to South China [7][8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Cost increases and the Double Eleven peak season have pushed up PP prices, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so PP is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawing grade dropped to around 23% [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has a limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 by OPEC [1]. - The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, so the boost to the market is limited [1]. - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,468 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,518 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,474 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.40%. The open interest decreased by 6,371 lots to 622,052 lots [2]. - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions were stable. The drawing grade was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton week - on - week [4].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-12 煤价回落明显，成本端受拖累 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6760元/吨（-42），PP主力合约收盘价为6429元/吨（-51），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为40元/吨（+92），LL 华东基差为90元/吨（+42）， PP华东基差为71元/吨（+51）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.6%（+1.7%），PP开工率为77.8%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为183.3元/吨（-100.9），PP油制生产利润为-406.7元/吨（-100.9），PDH制PP生产 利润为-107.7元/吨（-16.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-75.0元/吨（-67.4），PP进口利润为-168.0元/吨（+131.1），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-0.3）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.8%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.5%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of downward oscillation, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The PP market is facing supply pressure due to new capacity coming online during the production capacity expansion period and high existing production loads. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. As a result, the price of polypropylene may continue to move downward [7]. - The price of polypropylene continued to fall this week, with the PP01 contract dropping below 6,500 yuan/ton. The domestic commodity market sentiment has weakened again, putting pressure on commodity prices. The fundamentals of polyolefins have not changed significantly, with supply at a high level and demand in the peak season but lacking sufficient support [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has also declined significantly, with the basis strengthening slightly. The East China basis strengthened by 20 to around -100 yuan/ton, the North China basis strengthened by 10 to around -170 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened by 30 to around -100 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional and Non - standard Spread**: The North China - East China regional spread has fallen to a low level, and the South China - East China regional spread has oscillated. Among the non - standard spreads, the injection molding - drawing spread and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread have both strengthened, indicating that non - standard products are relatively firm [33][34]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has further declined to around -110, at a low level over the years. The L - PP01 spread has remained above 300, and the PP - 701 spread is at a high level, suggesting greater supply pressure for PP. The methanol market pattern is weak, with high imports leading to a record - high port inventory, and the methanol price has continued to decline [52]. 3.2 Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Production Profits**: This week, the oil price has slightly oscillated downward to around $63.5 per barrel (Brent). The oil - based production end profit is at a relatively good level in recent years. In the medium to long term, the supply in North Asia from the Middle East and the United States is expected to increase, putting pressure on the PDH - based PP price, but the PDH - based profit has improved month - on - month. The power coal price has continued to rise, the CTO profit has deteriorated but remains at a high level, and the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under pressure [68]. - **Domestic Production Volume and Load**: In 2025, as of October, the new domestic PP production capacity has totaled 4.155 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 11%. This week, the PP production volume was 796,500 tons (+7,300 tons), the operating rate was 77.78% (+0.72%), and the supply loss volume was 228,400 tons [99][100][113]. - **Production Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing production scheduling ratio may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [124]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profits - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [135]. - **Import - Export Profits**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and inquiries are limited. With the increase in shipping costs, enterprises have offered discounts on exports to promote transactions. In terms of imports, although China's price is relatively low globally, the weak external demand has led to a decline in the purchasing capacity of overseas buyers, resulting in an increase in goods flowing to China [152]. 3.4 Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - **Downstream Operating Rates**: This week, the overall downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.26%, the BOPP operating rate increased by 0.88%, and the operating rate of PP pipes increased by 0.5%. In the future, the demand for terminal products will be slightly supported by the e - commerce festival and the cold weather, but the peak season is coming to an end [155]. 3.5 Inventory - Production enterprise inventories have increased by 48,000 tons to 599,900 tons, with Sinopec and PetroChina inventories increasing by 163,000 tons. Traders' inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, and port inventories have decreased by 700 tons [216].