Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance this week, with the overall index rising by 0.49%. The Sci-Tech 50 index led the gains with an increase of 2.58%, while the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and Shanghai Composite Index recorded declines [1][6]. Policy Focus - The State Council emphasized the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, supporting new business models and enhancing service quality to stimulate domestic demand [2][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working to create a market environment conducive to long-term investment, focusing on deepening public fund reforms and expanding channels for long-term capital [2][8]. - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, signaling a coordinated effort to support the economy and provide financial backing for the new five-year plan [3][9]. Industry Events - Micron Technology announced a strategic acquisition of Powerchip's P5 wafer fab in Taiwan for $1.8 billion, aimed at enhancing production capacity amid rising demand in the storage chip market [3][9]. - The China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) is focusing on the aerospace defense industry and internationalization, aiming to enhance equipment performance and economic efficiency [4][10]. Market Outlook - The long-term trend for the A-share market remains bullish, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies and expected inflows of long-term capital from insurance funds and foreign investments [11]. - The government plans to invest trillions in urban renewal projects during the new five-year plan, focusing on infrastructure updates and old community renovations [12]. Fund Manager Insights - The A-share market is experiencing structural differentiation, with the Sci-Tech index leading while the Shanghai Composite index slightly declines. The total trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan [12]. - Key investment opportunities include sectors related to AI applications, semiconductor equipment, and cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and power equipment, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand mismatches and policy support [12].

► 人民日报：一场网络大V与知名企业人士的网上纷争，以西贝宣布"将关闭全国102家门店"、两人新 浪微博账号均被禁言暂告一段落。网络舆论环境不能成为企业发展的短板。主流媒体必须主动担责，必 须对偏颇的、不良的网络舆论言行敢于亮剑、敢于批评。让网络舆论环境更清朗，让骂战变讨论，回归 理性，共同推进企业与行业良性发展。 ► 每经网：一天一个价，内存条比金条涨得还快。2025年下半年以来，存储芯片价格涨幅惊人，内 存、闪存的价格翻了1倍以上。本轮涨价主要由AI服务器对存储的爆发式需求驱动，其消耗了全球过半 的高端内存产能，挤压消费级产品供应。压力已传导至PC、手机等终端，多家品牌上调售价，涨价态 势可能在2026年持续。 ► 证券时报：近期科创100、科创50、中证2000等宽基指数估值均突破150倍，引发市场过热担忧。历 史经验表明，当宽基指数市盈率超百倍时，风险往往难以持续。同时A股大盘蓝筹估值仍处低位，红利 指数市盈率不足10倍。投资者需警惕高估值板块回调风险，理性看待市场"冰火两重天"格局。 宏观经济 1、商务部：2025年，中国-中亚经贸合作取得长足发展。中国—中亚进出口总值历史上首次突破1000亿 美元 ...

热点情报 珂玛科技股价飙涨159% 1月16日，珂玛科技强势上涨3.05%，收盘价为139.07元，成交额为24.82亿元，总市值攀升至606.35亿 元。据统计，自2025年12月10日以来的26个交易日内，珂玛科技股价累计涨幅超过159%，表现非常不 公开资料显示，珂玛科技是先进陶瓷材料及零部件领域的领先企业，专注于半导体设备用先进陶瓷的研 发与制造。公司产品包括陶瓷加热器等高难度"功能-结构"一体模块化产品，多项关键技术指标达到国 内领先、国际主流水平。 内存条价格翻倍暴涨 2025年下半年以来，存储芯片价格涨幅惊人，内存、闪存的价格翻了1倍以上，"内存条"价格涨幅远 超"金条"。数据显示，2025年9月以来，DDR5内存条价格上涨超300%，DDR4内存条涨幅也超150%。 有业内人士表示，此轮内存条涨价源于AI引爆的存储需求浪潮。 中信建投证券电子首席分析师刘双锋认为，在数据中心需求爆发、存储芯片供应持续趋紧，价格大幅上 涨的背景下，美光交出一份明显强于预期的FY26Q1财报，并给出强劲的第二财季指引。预计存储芯片 供应短缺将在2026年持续并维持更久，美光为代表的存储IDM厂商将大为受益。 近一周 ...

早 报 精 选 1、证监会：坚持稳字当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头。 2、人民日报评西贝关店事件：网络舆论环境不能成为企业发展的短板。 3、特朗普宣布就格陵兰岛问题向欧洲八国加征关税。 4、2025年我国全社会用电量历史性突破10万亿千瓦时，达到10.4万亿千瓦时，同比增长5%。 5、证监会对容百科技重大合同公告涉嫌误导性陈述立案调查。 宏 观 新 闻 1、 国务院总理李强1月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报并研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促 消费举措。会议指出，要加快培育服务消费新增长点，支持新业态新模式新场景竞相涌现，增加优质服务供给，解决好信用、标准、 安全管理等问题，促进服务消费提质惠民。 2、中国证监会1月15日召开2026年系统工作会议，总结2025年工作，分析当前形势，研究部署2026年工作。会议强调，坚持稳字 当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头。全方位加强市场监测预警，及时做好逆周期调节，强化交易监管和信息披露监管，进一步维护交易公 平性，严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。 3、商务部美大司负责人表示，2024年，加拿大对中国电动汽车加征100 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, leading to a concentration of hot sectors and thematic investments, which has resulted in structural overheating in some areas [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The recent "opening red" market rally is characterized by significant liquidity and heightened risk preferences, with a clear focus on thematic investments [1][2] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios aims to prevent systemic risks and guide the market back to rationality, while broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, indicating a market entering a phase of consolidation [1][2] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current spring market rally is still in its early stages, with potential for new highs following a short-term correction [1][2] Group 2: Sector Focus - Analysts emphasize that the upcoming earnings reporting period will shift focus back to performance indicators, particularly in sectors expected to show high growth or improved conditions, such as electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The adjustment in financing margins is not expected to impact the overall upward trend of the market but will affect sector dynamics, with increased competition among thematic sectors [2][3] - The focus on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend and price increases includes chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with a particular emphasis on high-growth areas in the upcoming earnings forecasts [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on performance fundamentals as the primary driver of investment decisions, while cautioning against irrational speculative activities [2][3] - The anticipated earnings reports in late January are expected to catalyze significant market movements, particularly in sectors with strong performance indicators [2][3] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite short-term fluctuations, driven by fundamental improvements and policy support [2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations this week, with small-cap stocks performing better than large-cap blue chips. The Guozheng 2000, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 indices all saw weekly gains exceeding 1%, while the SSE 50 index declined by 1.74% [1] - From Tuesday onwards, market speculation sentiment significantly cooled, particularly in the commercial aerospace and AI application sectors, leading to increased discussions among investors regarding market sentiment and these sectors [1] Speculation Sentiment - The market's speculative sentiment shift was unexpected, with a strong start on Monday followed by a downturn in the commercial aerospace sector on Tuesday, indicating a control of sentiment and rhythm [3] - By Wednesday, the cooling of speculative sentiment became more pronounced due to five key events, including increased financing margin ratios by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and significant sell orders on several large-cap stocks [4] Future Market Outlook - Historical cases suggest that the commercial aerospace sector is likely to stabilize in the first half of next week, as it has been four trading days since the sector's downturn began [6] - The AI application sector also saw some leading stocks drop over 20% in the latter half of the week, indicating that negative impacts have largely been released [7] - A commentary from China Central Broadcasting Network emphasized that the A-share market should aim for sustainable growth rather than speculative bubbles, which may help alleviate the cooling sentiment [7] Investment Opportunities - After the cooling of speculative sentiment, the market focus may shift towards institutional trend sectors, which could attract more capital attention [7] - The semiconductor equipment, humanoid robots, and storage sectors are highlighted as areas of interest, especially as the annual report disclosure phase begins, with companies showing significant earnings growth [11] - Notable companies such as Baiwei Storage and Dingtai High-Tech have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, positively impacting related sectors [11] New Stock Offerings - There are three new stocks available for subscription next week, including Nondan Technology on January 19 and Zhenstone Co. and Shimon Co. on January 23, encouraging participation in new offerings [12]

Group 1 - The market is showing signs of strengthening, with increased thematic speculation and some sectors and stocks becoming "locally overheated," prompting regulatory measures to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [4][7] - The A-share market has strong upward momentum due to factors such as increased household savings entering the market, improved performance from "anti-involution" efforts, and a new wave of technological industrial revolution [4][7] - The report maintains a "short-term trend-following" strategy, emphasizing the importance of focusing on performance fundamentals while being cautious of irrational speculation risks [4][7] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors driven by industrial trends such as semiconductor equipment, domestic AI computing, and humanoid robots [4][7] - Price-driven sectors such as storage chips, consumer electronics, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals are highlighted as potential areas for investment [4][7] - New consumption directions supported by favorable policies, including health, cultural tourism, sports, beauty care, IP economy, pet economy, and cultural entertainment, are recommended for attention [4][7] Group 3 - The report notes that the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes timely counter-cyclical adjustments and strict enforcement against excessive speculation to promote stable market operations [4][7] - The People's Bank of China has introduced eight policy measures to support economic structural transformation, including lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools [8][9] - December's social financing data exceeded expectations, with new social financing of 22,075 billion yuan, although the structure still requires optimization [10] Group 4 - December's import and export data showed positive performance, with exports increasing by 6.6% year-on-year, driven by seasonal demand and global AI investment trends [11] - The report indicates that there is a potential "rush to export" in the first quarter of 2026 due to adjustments in export tax rebate policies, although this may partially preempt demand in the second quarter [11] Group 5 - The report highlights the importance of monitoring employment performance and the independence of the Federal Reserve as key factors influencing the Fed's interest rate path [12][13] - The report concludes that recent counter-cyclical measures have laid a solid foundation for stable market performance moving forward, with a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and technology growth [4][7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-Share Technical Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to fully explore technical information to depict market conditions, breaking down the vague concept of "market state" into five dimensions: price, volume, volatility, trend, and crowding. It generates a comprehensive score ranging from -1 to +1 based on equal-weighted voting of timing signals from 10 selected indicators[9][14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 10 effective market observation indicators across the five dimensions (e.g., 20-day Bollinger Bands, 20-day price deviation rate, 60-day turnover rate volatility, etc.)[14] 2. Generate long/short timing signals for each indicator individually 3. Aggregate the signals through equal-weighted voting to form a comprehensive score[9][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward and timely way for investors to observe and understand the market[9] 2. Model Name: Dividend Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model times the dividend style by analyzing the relative performance of the CSI Dividend Index against the CSI All Share Index, using three indicators: relative momentum, 10Y-1Y term spread, and interbank pledged repo trading volume[16][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Generate daily signals (0, +1, -1) for each indicator, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively 2. Aggregate the scores to determine the overall long/short view on the dividend style 3. When bullish, fully allocate to the CSI Dividend Index; when bearish, fully allocate to the CSI All Share Index[16][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently maintained a bearish view on the dividend style this year, favoring growth style instead[16] 3. Model Name: Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the crowding level of large-cap and small-cap styles based on momentum and trading volume differences, adjusting the strategy based on whether the market is in a high or low crowding state[20][22][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate momentum differences and trading volume ratios between the Wind Micro-Cap Index and the CSI 300 Index over multiple time windows 2. Derive crowding scores for both large-cap and small-cap styles based on percentile rankings of the calculated metrics 3. Use a dual moving average model with smaller parameters in high crowding states and larger parameters in low crowding states to determine trends[20][22][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the medium- to long-term trends in low crowding states and reacts to potential reversals in high crowding states[22] 4. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model employs genetic programming to directly extract factors from industry index data (e.g., price, volume, valuation) without relying on predefined scoring rules. It uses a dual-objective approach to optimize factor monotonicity and top-group performance[27][30][31] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use NSGA-II algorithm to optimize two objectives: |IC| and NDCG@5 2. Combine multiple factors with weak collinearity into industry scores using greedy strategies and variance inflation factors 3. Select the top five industries with the highest composite scores for equal-weighted allocation[30][33][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The dual-objective genetic programming approach enhances factor diversity and reduces overfitting risks[30][33] 5. Model Name: China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model adopts a macro factor risk parity framework, emphasizing diversification across underlying macro risk sources (growth and inflation surprises) rather than asset classes[38][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Divide macroeconomic scenarios into four quadrants based on growth and inflation surprises 2. Construct sub-portfolios within each quadrant using equal-weighted assets, focusing on downside risk 3. Adjust quadrant risk budgets monthly based on macro momentum indicators, actively overweighting favorable quadrants[41][42] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieves enhanced performance by actively allocating based on macroeconomic expectations[38][41] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-Share Technical Scoring Model - Annualized Return: 20.67% - Annualized Volatility: 17.33% - Maximum Drawdown: -23.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.19 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87[15] 2. Dividend Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 16.65% - Maximum Drawdown: -25.52% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.91 - Calmar Ratio: 0.65 - YTD Return: 5.78%[17] 3. Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 27.79% - Maximum Drawdown: -32.05% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.16 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87 - YTD Return: 6.27%[25] 4. Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - Annualized Return: 31.95% - Annualized Volatility: 17.44% - Maximum Drawdown: -19.62% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.83 - Calmar Ratio: 1.63 - YTD Return: 3.31%[30] 5. China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - Annualized Return: 11.82% - Annualized Volatility: 6.20% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.30% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.91 - Calmar Ratio: 1.88 - YTD Return: 2.02%[42]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share annual report season is in full swing, with significant performance forecasts for 2025 from various companies, leading to notable stock price increases for several firms [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - A total of 366 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with 16 companies expecting a year-on-year net profit increase of over 200% [1] - SAIC Motor Corporation leads with an expected net profit increase of 438% to 558%, projecting a profit of 9 billion to 11 billion yuan due to increased vehicle sales and a low base from asset impairment in 2024 [2][3] - BAW Storage anticipates a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 427.19% to 520.22%, driven by a recovery in storage prices and strong demand in AI sectors [3] Group 2: Sector Highlights - Longxin Bochuang expects a net profit of 320 million to 370 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 344.01% to 413.39%, supported by increased demand in data communication markets [5] - Lakala forecasts a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, a growth of 202% to 242%, attributed to increased transaction volumes in cross-border payments and stock investment gains [5] - Shanhua Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit of 165 million to 194 million yuan, with a growth of 38.16% to 62.45%, driven by strong order volumes in both domestic and foreign markets [7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the performance forecasts, several companies experienced significant stock price increases, with Lakala and Shanhua Pharmaceutical both hitting the 20% daily limit up [1][5] - BAW Storage's stock rose over 17% after its earnings announcement, reflecting positive market sentiment towards its growth prospects in AI and advanced packaging solutions [3]

Core Conclusion - The market's upward momentum has slowed down this week, with active trading funds causing turnover rates to spike, surpassing the high point of August 2025. The spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation after excessive short-term trading is normal. Although there are indications of a short-term cooling in policy, the overall stance remains accommodative [1][5]. Market Trends - The market style is shifting, with thematic sentiment cooling and strong sectors returning to the prosperity line. In the liquidity bull market phase, the profit effect is spreading, and price increases are considered a key prosperity line. The current narrative around commodities is driven by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring, leading to a re-pricing of key resource products [1][5]. Commodity Price Dynamics - Long-term, commodity prices tend to move in tandem, even during periods of economic downturn, as seen from 1970 to 1980 when prices continued to rise until 1980. There is optimism for a new super cycle in commodity prices. In the short to medium term, the focus should be on supply constraints, with potential expansion from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Beneficiaries on both supply and demand sides include non-ferrous metals (precious metals, copper, aluminum, strategic metals, rare earths), new energy (new energy materials, power batteries), chemical products (phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals), and storage chips [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Factors - The current commodity price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security. On the supply side, the control of strategic resources is intensifying amid great power competition, leading to increased scarcity in key mineral sectors. On the demand side, real needs driven by the AI technology revolution, energy transition, and military spending are boosting demand for strategic metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. A weak dollar cycle may support the elevation of commodity price levels [2][6]. Price Movement Patterns - Historically, during a commodity price increase, there are price rotations among commodities due to their interdependencies and relationships within the supply chain. For instance, during the demand expansion-driven price increase from 2009 to 2011, copper led the rise, followed by crude oil and soybeans. In the supply constraint-driven price increase from 2016 to 2018, oil and black commodities rose first, with chemical products showing sustained price increases [2][6]. Future Outlook - There is a strong belief in the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices. The focus for the current price increase should be on supply constraint elasticity, with expansion likely moving from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Key supply constraints include production capacity limits for critical resources like copper and rare earths, capacity restrictions driven by "anti-involution" policies, and supply shortages driven by high AI demand. Demand opportunities are expected to arise from the transition between new and old driving forces in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AIDC [3][7].