理性投资，风险自担 宏观：短期来看，9月国内外重要宏观变量再度来袭，海外关注美联储议息会议释放的指引，是否一次性降息还是进入 降息周期令市场瞩目，此外，俄乌问题的进展将对市场风险偏好带来较大影响，国内阅兵结束后将进入新的宏观预期阶 段，关注经济弱现实背景下政策层面释放的十五五规划和四季度经济政策指引，总体来看短期宏观对市场的扰动会再度 加大，但中长期的政策指引仍然偏向利多。 中观：地产销售新房和二手房都回到低位，总体淡季更淡，刚需支撑下限，关注金九银十的表现，服务业结构分化且高 位有韧性，反内卷政策背景下企业盈利端向好，消费国补重启，社会福利政策刺激生育，制造业出口在关税政策扰动落 地后再平衡，国内经济总体维持弱现实阶段，关注反内卷和促内需政策提振下的弱复苏机会。 资金：国内流动性总体宽松，海外流动性在美联储9月降息预期下趋于宽松，金融条件延续改善，国内股市在赚钱效应下 获得杠杆资金和居民存款搬家资金,但解禁压力边际增大，市场分歧开始出现，上升至高位后进一步推升难度加大。 估值：各指数短期大幅上涨后估值近入历史偏高水平，国内外股债溢价率偏低，配置资金吸引力一般。 策略：综合来看，当前宽基指数市场估值偏高，尤其 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，8月建筑PMI较上月下降，基建投资端增速有所放缓，稳增 长政策仍有加力的潜在空间，继续关注财政政策的加力节奏。基建合作仍是中外合作的重要形式，海外 工程需求景气度有望保持，海外工程业务有望受益，近期建议关注俄乌局势进展及重建预期变化。部分 专业制造工程细分领域、节能降碳以及新能源相关的基建细分领域景气度较高，有相关转型布局的企业 有望受益。建议关注中国核建(601611.SH)、中国化学(601117.SH)、鸿路钢构(002541.SZ)、华阳国际 (002949.SZ)等。 东吴证券主要观点如下： (1)8月建筑业商务活动指数较上月下降了1.5pct，商务活动指数下降至收缩区间，建筑业施工有所放 缓，业务活动预期指数相对平稳，但新订单指数仍然低迷，结合上半年和7月数据来看，基建投资端增 速有所放缓，稳增长政策仍有加力的潜在空间，继续关注财政政策的加力节奏。 近期城市更新、重大基建投资项目进展的关注度持续提升，中央财政发力和资金支持的落地有望加快重 点工程实施进度和实物工作量形成，对城市更新推动和区域需求拉动值得关注，建议关注新疆、西藏、 川渝等中西部区域的重大项目进 ...

Group 1 - CICC and BlueFive Capital have established a fund to support Chinese enterprises in expanding their business in the GCC market, focusing on sectors such as technology, digital transformation, green energy, and advanced manufacturing [2] - Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has invested $1.5 billion in Prologis to support the company's growth in logistics, digital infrastructure, and new energy sectors [2] - Morning Light Cable plans to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Dubai with an investment of no more than 1.5 million RMB to enhance its competitiveness and expand overseas sales [2] Group 2 - Hainan Development's subsidiary won a bid for a 365 million RMB project in Dubai, which is expected to positively impact the company's future performance [3] - Abu Dhabi-based Lunate and Brevan Howard have signed a long-term strategic partnership to establish an investment platform in Abu Dhabi Global Market with an initial commitment of $2 billion [3] - Dubai's high-end property market grew over 5% in the first half of 2025, driven by an influx of immigrants and limited luxury housing supply, with further growth expected in the second half [3] Group 3 - Masdar is considering selling a 50% stake in its distributed solar energy company Emerge Energy in Abu Dhabi, which could reshape the competitive landscape of the distributed solar market in the region [4] - The UAE-New Zealand Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) has officially come into effect, aiming to increase bilateral trade to $5 billion by 2032 [4] - The UAE and Angola signed a CEPA, expecting to exceed $10 billion in non-oil trade by 2033, creating approximately 30,000 jobs [5] Group 4 - ADNOC has signed a 15-year LNG supply agreement with Indian Oil Company, committing to supply 1 million tons of LNG annually [5] - Abu Dhabi has launched the UAE's first quantum-safe communication testing platform, focusing on financial and digital asset sectors to enhance cybersecurity [6] - The UAE government holds approximately 6,300 bitcoins, valued at around $740 million, making it the fourth-largest holder of bitcoin globally [6] Group 5 - Dubai Chamber members' exports grew by 18% to $46.8 billion in the first half of 2025, highlighting the trade vitality of Dubai [6] - Dubai's Finance Department and GDRFA have signed a memorandum to promote the "Cashless Dubai" strategy, aiming for 90% of transactions to be digital by 2026 [6] - EHang has received regulatory approval to launch manned aerial vehicles in Qatar, joining the air taxi competition in the Gulf region [7]

Q&A 如何看待中国股市在未来一段时间内的表现？ 我们坚定认为中国股市不会止步于当前水平，预计市场将继续走高，并有望突 破 4,000 点。我们建议增加对中盘股和低位蓝筹股的配置比例，这些股票可能 成为下一阶段市场上升的重要力量。行情将出现扩散，但不会发生风格切换。 随着宽松预期和经济能见度的提高，新兴科技仍是主线，而周期金融则可能成 为黑马。此外，AI 应用侧、周期股和中字头股票也值得关注。 中国市场看多的逻辑是什么？ 我们对中国市场看多的逻辑主要基于以下三点：首先，中国转型进展明显加快， 特别是在集成电路、人工智能、创新药和国防军工等领域。这些新产业的发展 降低了社会发展的不确定性。其次，无风险收益系统性下沉，使长期资本和家 庭部门入市成为历史性趋势。今年 4 月以来，我们一直强调这一逻辑，现在各 周期论剑｜布局周期的确定性 20250831 摘要 中国转型加速，集成电路、人工智能等新兴产业降低不确定性；无风险 收益下沉，长期资本入市成趋势；资本市场改革推动价值观念转变，三 因素耦合或形成至少两年牛市。 监管层或维持当前上升势头，实质性干预可能性小；美联储降息概率增 加，中国央行宽松空间打开，可能重启国债 ...

25H1 公司综合毛利率8.53%，同比-0.3pct。分业务看，25H1 基建实现营收4362.46 亿，同比-7.78%，毛 利率7.37%，同比-0.53pct，其中铁路/公路/市政及其他营收同比+6.14%/-13.29%/-13.23%；房地产/装备 制造/设计咨询营收156.14/137.53/89.11 亿，同比+7.78%/+14.39%/-0.60%，毛利率同 比-3.42/-0.18/-1.44pct；其他业务实现营收379.77 亿，同比+5.48%，其中资源利用业务收入40.14 亿，同 比-0.84%，毛利率同比+1.5pct 至54.85%。 公司发布半年报：25H1 实现营业总收入5125.02 亿元（yoy-5.88%），归母净利118.27 亿元（yoy- 17.17%），扣非净利102.68 亿元（yoy-21.59%）。 其中Q2 实现总收入2632.19 亿元（yoy-5.61%，qoq+5.59%），归母净利58.01 亿元（yoy-14.65%，qoq- 3.71%），低于我们的预期（62.78 亿元），主要是费用化利息支出增加和金融资产模式基建投资项目 确认投融资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" for key companies such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Metallurgical Group, and China Construction [6][4]. Core Insights - The construction industry continues to face revenue pressure, with a 5.7% decline in overall revenue for the first half of 2025, although the decline has narrowed in Q2 to 5.3% [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.2% in H1 2025, with a smaller decline of 3.5% in Q2, primarily due to reduced impairment losses [13][19]. - The industry is expected to see marginal improvements in revenue performance in the second half of 2025, driven by potential fiscal policy support and the launch of major projects [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - The construction sector's revenue for H1 2025 totaled approximately 4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year decline, with Q2 revenue at 2.05 trillion yuan [9][10]. - The net profit for H1 2025 was 937 billion yuan, down 6.2%, with Q2 net profit at 471 billion yuan [13][19]. 2. Profitability - The gross profit margin for the construction sector was 10.1% in H1 2025, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [19]. - The net profit margin remained stable at 2.34% for H1 2025, with a slight increase in Q2 [37][19]. 3. Asset and Operational Quality - The asset-liability ratio increased to 77.3% by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a tightening funding environment [41][43]. - Cash flow from operations showed a net outflow of 496.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, which was a reduction in outflow compared to the previous year [3][41]. 4. Order Intake - New contracts signed by major state-owned enterprises reached 7.8 trillion yuan in H1 2025, a 0.2% increase year-on-year, with Q2 showing a 2% increase [3][4]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and strong government support, particularly in regions like Xinjiang [4][6]. - Recommended stocks include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Metallurgical Group, and China Construction, among others [4][6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between liquidity and financial market pricing, emphasizing that liquidity is the ability of an asset to be quickly converted into cash, influenced by factors such as money supply, tradable assets, and risk appetite [1][2][3] - Liquidity is categorized into narrow liquidity (money in the financial system) and broad liquidity (money in the real economy), with narrow liquidity affecting opportunity costs and market valuations, while broad liquidity impacts credit expansion and corporate profitability [2][3] - The article identifies key indicators to observe liquidity conditions, including the difference between the central bank's monetary policy sentiment index and loan demand index, the difference between the enterprise financing environment index and investment outlook index, and the difference between social financing growth and nominal GDP growth [3][4][5] Group 2 - The article notes that liquidity-driven phases have occurred during specific periods, such as mid-2014 to mid-2015, early 2019 to Q1 2020, and Q2 to Q4 of 2021, with a projected liquidity-driven phase starting after May 2025 [5] - Factors that could alter the liquidity-driven logic include changes in money supply or broadening the avenues for money allocation, such as improved corporate profitability and investment demand [5][6] - The article highlights that a favorable scenario would be when broad liquidity can support the asset pricing expansion driven by narrow liquidity, transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to a profitability-driven phase [6] Group 3 - The article reports increased volatility in major asset classes, with U.S. stocks, gold, and the Chinese yuan experiencing fluctuations, while the domestic stock market continues to outperform globally [6][7] - The article indicates that the U.S. stock market is showing signs of volatility, with the VIX index rising, while the Chinese stock market narrative is becoming more concentrated, with a significant reduction in the number of positive-return sectors [8][12] - The article discusses the performance of commodities, noting that oil prices have risen due to geopolitical uncertainties, while gold prices have also increased amid external risk aversion [9][10] Group 4 - The article mentions that the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and concerns about its independence are influencing U.S. Treasury yields, with a slight decline in 10-year Treasury yields [10][11] - The article highlights the appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar, with both onshore and offshore yuan showing significant gains [11][12] - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market, noting a decline in market breadth and a concentration of returns among fewer stocks, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12][13] Group 5 - The article outlines the recent U.S. court ruling regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which may impact future trade policies and economic conditions [16][17][18] - The article emphasizes the resilience of U.S. consumer spending, with upward revisions to GDP growth and personal consumption expenditures, indicating a robust economic backdrop [19][20] - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts in the near future, reflecting concerns about labor market risks and inflation [21][22] Group 6 - The article highlights the expected economic indicators for August, including GDP growth and PPI trends, suggesting a mixed economic outlook with potential for slight improvements in inflation metrics [22][23][24] - The article notes that August's fiscal spending and central bank interventions are expected to lead to a loosening of narrow liquidity conditions, with social financing growth projected to decline [26][27] - The article discusses improvements in funding availability for construction projects, particularly in central and eastern regions of China, indicating a potential boost in infrastructure investment [28][29]

建筑装饰 2025 年 08 月 31 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 建筑央企 25H1 收入、利润承压，现金流改善 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250825-20250829） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-0.87%，沪深 300 指数+0.84%，相对收益为-1.71pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 基建民企（+0.85%）、专业工程（+0.40%）、钢结构（-0.84%）， 对 应 行 业 内 三 个 公 司 ： 宏 润 建 设 （ ...

白俄罗斯去年正式成为上合组织成员国后，中白两国合作的标志性项目——中白"巨石"工业园，吸引力进一步提升。目前，园区已有150多家企业入驻，来 自15个国家，形成机械制造、电子、物流、医疗和生物技术等产业集群。绿色、智慧、生态、数字化是这里的发展愿景。 埃及 围绕"上合组织可持续发展"这一篇大文章，中国秉持共商共建共享原则，在减贫、气候变化和绿色发展、工业化、数字经济、互联互通等八大领域开展一系 列合作与行动，多个项目取得积极进展。 白俄罗斯 15个国家150多家企业入驻中白工业园 红海之畔 绿色答卷 中埃合作区产城融合 红海之畔、沙漠之中，中国建设者将城市开发经验带入上合对话伙伴埃及，帮助当地建设起一座现代化绿色新城 ——中埃苏伊士经贸合作区。 截至目前，合作区共吸引近200家企业入驻，直接解决了近万人就业。凭借产城融合、绿色生态的发展理念，埃及、阿联酋、加拿大以及中国的多家企业在 这里蓬勃发展。今年7月，双方签署了合作区扩建协议。 科威特 中企参建新城 满足至少15万人住房需求 阿卜杜拉新城项目位于科威特首都西南部，正在沙漠中建设的新城初现雏形。这一项目是科威特"2035 国家愿景"的具体实践，国际合作共建 ...

Company Summary - The company, 勘设股份, announced a provision for asset impairment totaling 99.5483 million yuan, which will reduce the total profit in the consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2025 by the same amount [1] - The asset impairment has already been reflected in the company's financial report for the first half of 2025 [1] Industry Overview - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of the company is as follows: 67.61% from the highway sector, 21.68% from the construction sector, 7.39% from water transport and other sectors, 3.01% from the municipal sector, and 0.31% from other businesses [1]