记者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 今年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，全年有望实现5%左右的增长，背后很重要的支撑在于 更加积极的财政政策。 今年更加积极的财政政策内涵丰富，赤字率提高到4%左右，对应赤字规模为5.66万亿元；发 行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，支持"两重""两新"工作；发行超长期特别国债5000亿元，支持 国有大型商业银行补充资本；安排新增地方专项债4.4万亿元，用于投资建设、土地收储、消 化地方拖欠企业账款等；四季度安排使用5000亿元地方债限额，用于化解存量债务和投资建设 等。 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，部分机构预判2026年经济增长目标仍在5%左右。考虑到当 前内需恢复偏弱、房地产市场在深度调整进程中、外部不确定性较大等， 2026年要推动释放 潜在经济增速，须实施更加积极的宏观政策，尤其需要更加积极的财政政策加以支持。 中国社科院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任何代欣对21世纪经济报道记者表示，"十五五"期 间，我国经济增长目标预计在5%左右，积极财政政策的支撑力度和实施方式都会进一步优 化。 明年积极财政政策将进一步提振消费 ，"两新"政策会优化；财政会坚持"投资于人"的主 线，增加 ...

宏 观 研 究 国内政策展望 2025 年 12 月 02 日 2026 年：财政货币政策展望 —— 2026 年展望报告系列之二 政策回顾：财政货币政策协同支撑 2025 年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征，充分体现对经济的托底意图。2025 年财政融资规模创历史新高，政府债净融资达 14.36 万亿元，占 GDP 比例预计为 10.2%。2025 年前三季度广义财政支出同比增长 7.9%，支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置，配合四 季度灵活出台的增量政策，凸显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调，注重预期引导与传导疏通，操作更趋精准审慎。2025 年央 行保持流动性合理充裕，资金利率整体处于较低水平；降息次数和幅度较 2024 年更为谨慎， 政策节奏前置，社融增速呈现"前高后稳"。同时，2025 年央行加强市场沟通，支持资本市 场稳定，并通过多种手段缓解银行息差压力，提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化，国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。2025 年央行分阶段调整国债买卖操作，展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury reported a $284 billion budget deficit for the first month of the new fiscal year, indicating a concerning trend in fiscal management [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Analysis - The reported deficit translates to over $90 billion in new debt added daily, raising questions about fiscal responsibility [1] - The deficit is 29% lower than the same period last year, but this reduction is attributed to forced spending cuts due to Congress not passing budget bills, rather than effective cost management [2] Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - Revenue increased by 22%, primarily due to higher tariffs, with the Treasury Secretary estimating $500 billion in tariff revenue for the year, covering nearly half of military spending [4] - However, tariffs ultimately burden consumers, as they lead to higher prices for imported goods, and the legality of these tariffs is under review by the Supreme Court [4] Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Challenges - The goal to reduce the deficit from 6.4% to 3% of GDP appears ambitious, given the rising fixed costs associated with social welfare, healthcare, and interest on national debt [5] - Interest payments on national debt are now higher than military spending, creating a vicious cycle that complicates deficit reduction efforts [5] Group 4: Economic Growth and Policy Implications - The current fiscal issues reflect deeper challenges in the U.S. economic growth model, which has relied on borrowing for consumption, a strategy that is becoming increasingly unsustainable [8] - Proposed ideas, such as distributing tariff revenue as dividends to citizens, may ultimately lead to higher prices and further complicate the economic landscape [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend suggests that the deficit may rebound in the coming months, with potential government shutdowns and critical legal outcomes regarding tariffs influencing market stability [11] - The current fiscal policies may be politically motivated, posing risks that could lead to broader economic consequences if not managed properly [13]

Core Points - The meeting of the 12th Party Committee of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region emphasized the importance of implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, focusing on practical actions and innovative measures to achieve the outlined goals [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development - The 15th Five-Year period is crucial for Guangxi to achieve significant progress in modernizing its economy and promoting high-quality development [2]. - The regional government plans to enhance fiscal policies to support key strategic initiatives, including artificial intelligence, modern industrial systems, and rural revitalization [2]. - The total number of business entities in Guangxi reached 4.625 million, marking a 23% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [4]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The regional government aims to strengthen state-owned enterprises and promote innovation in artificial intelligence and technology integration to drive economic growth [3]. - The number of high-tech enterprises in Guangxi increased by 29% since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, showcasing the region's commitment to fostering innovation [3]. Group 3: Social Development - The government is focused on improving living standards and promoting common prosperity through enhanced social services and community governance [7][8]. - The human resources sector will prioritize employment policies and social security systems to support the region's development goals [8]. Group 4: Environmental Sustainability - The ecological environment is recognized as a fundamental aspect of public welfare, with plans to advance initiatives for beautiful cities, rivers, and rural areas [9]. - The government will implement measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and promote green, low-carbon transitions [9].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月26日英国预算责任办公室公布多项财政举措】英国预算责任办公室于11月26日透露，英国将对价 值超200万英镑的房产征税，还会把股息税率上调2个百分点。 此外，从2028至2029财政年度起，雇主 国民保险缴费起征点将连续三年冻结。 从2025 - 26财年到2029 - 30财年，英国将额外借款572亿英镑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing a budget that aims to balance the demands of bond market investors and Labour Party backbenchers, amidst challenges to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership [2][3] Group 1: Budget Challenges - Reeves faces a £20 billion fiscal gap due to high costs of policy shifts, global trade tensions, and downward revisions in productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) [3][4] - The government has achieved the fastest economic growth in the G7, but this growth is not sustainable, limiting Reeves' policy options [2][3] Group 2: Taxation and Spending Plans - Proposed measures may include freezing the income tax threshold for two years starting in 2028, introducing a "mansion tax" on properties over £2 million, and increasing taxes on alcohol, gambling, and dividends [5][8] - Reeves aims to create a fiscal buffer of £15-20 billion to reduce the likelihood of further tax increases in the coming years [4][8] Group 3: Economic Growth and Public Support - The budget will focus on addressing the cost of living crisis, with plans to raise the national minimum wage, freeze train fares, and lower energy bills [11] - Emphasizing the affordability of these measures is crucial for gaining voter support amid heightened public concern over upcoming policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Province has achieved a historic breakthrough in risk prevention and is set to exit the list of high-risk debt provinces, following Inner Mongolia, with a nearly 90% reduction in hidden debt by September 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Debt Management and Economic Impact - Jilin's local government financing behavior will face fewer restrictions, promoting economic development and providing a replicable model for other provinces [1][5]. - The province's public budget revenue for the first ten months of 2025 reached 1110.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, indicating robust fiscal growth [5][6]. - The local government debt balance is projected to be 9993.4 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt ratio of 202.9%, remaining within the debt limit [7][8]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The central government has increased support for Jilin's debt resolution, with over 100 billion yuan allocated from a total of 6 trillion yuan for debt management [5]. - Jilin has conducted a comprehensive asset assessment, resulting in over 1000 billion yuan in activated assets, which supports risk prevention and economic stability [6]. - The exit from the high-risk debt list will enhance the flexibility and initiative of local governments and state-owned enterprises in investment and financing activities [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - While exiting the high-risk debt list reduces policy restrictions, it may also lead to decreased support for debt management, necessitating a balance between debt resolution and economic growth [7]. - Experts emphasize the need for improved local government debt management mechanisms to align with high-quality development goals [7][8]. - Other provinces, such as Ningxia, are also moving towards exiting the high-risk debt list, indicating a broader trend in debt management across the country [8].

Core Insights - The news highlights the achievements of the Heze Luxi New District in financial and fiscal development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and addressing key issues such as financing for small and micro enterprises, budget performance management, and social welfare [1] Financial Performance - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the district's general public budget revenue reached 25.646 billion yuan, with a tax revenue share of 69.54%, indicating high revenue quality [2] - The total public budget expenditure was 22.966 billion yuan, with 16.069 billion yuan allocated to social welfare, maintaining a stable 70% share over five years [2] - The district secured an additional 15.076 billion yuan in special bonds to support key projects in municipal services, social welfare, and water conservancy [2] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The district's financial bureau implemented three key measures to alleviate financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises, including enhancing bank-enterprise connections and establishing a financing demand database [3] - A credit integrity management system was introduced to encourage banks to adhere to regulations and promote honest repayment by enterprises [3] - The district is expanding direct financing channels and has created a reserve of potential listed companies to facilitate access to multi-tiered capital markets [3] Budget Performance Management - The district has established a comprehensive budget performance management system that includes pre-assessment, monitoring during execution, and post-evaluation of budgetary projects [4] - A mechanism links performance evaluation results to budget allocations, prioritizing funding for high-performing projects while reducing budgets for underperforming ones [4] - The district emphasizes transparency and social oversight in budget performance management [4] Social Welfare and Support - A multi-tiered social welfare system has been established, covering basic living assistance, special social aid, and various subsidies in education, healthcare, and housing [5] - The district has disbursed a total of 38.556 million yuan in assistance to 21,384 individuals since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," including various forms of support for low-income and vulnerable groups [5] - Future plans include continuing to enhance financial support and reform initiatives to ensure effective resource allocation and risk management [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ghanaian government aims to maintain fiscal discipline and structural reforms in its 2026 budget to ensure macroeconomic stability achieved in 2025, focusing on economic transformation and job creation [1] Fiscal Strategy - The budget emphasizes a comprehensive fiscal strategy based on prudent spending, improved tax compliance, and a fair tax system [3] - The government targets a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP and aims to maintain single-digit inflation and stable exchange rates [1][2] Revenue Generation - The finance minister attributes economic improvement to stricter spending controls and effective tax collection, with non-oil tax revenue as a percentage of GDP rising from 7.8% to 8.7% [2] - The government plans to increase non-oil revenue from an estimated 15.1% of GDP in 2025 to 15.7% in 2026 through tax reforms [3] Tax Reforms - Key tax reforms include modernizing the VAT system, reducing the VAT rate from 21.9% to 20%, and raising the VAT registration threshold from 200,000 to 750,000 cedis [3] - The government expects these reforms to save businesses and households approximately 57 billion cedis in 2026 [3] Digital Tax Management - The Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) plans to introduce new digital tools for tax management, including electronic devices for monitoring taxable transactions and a digital platform for VAT collection on cross-border e-commerce [4] - Comprehensive reviews of the Income Tax Act, Customs Act, and Excise Tax Act will align Ghana's tax system with global best practices [4] Customs and Trade Efficiency - To address tax losses at ports, the government will deploy an AI-driven pre-arrival inspection system to detect undervalued and misclassified goods, enhancing customs revenue [5] - The government aims to streamline spending by eliminating low-value projects and reallocating funds to infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and education [5] Social Programs and Public Spending - The budget reinforces commitments to social programs such as the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) and the National Health Insurance Scheme [6] - The government will integrate the Ghana Electronic Procurement System with the Ghana Integrated Financial Management Information System to improve public spending efficiency and transparency [6]

Core Insights - The latest data from the Ministry of Finance indicates that from January to October, national fiscal revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the growth rate from January to September [1] - In October alone, national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, continuing the upward trend in monthly growth [1] - Tax revenue has been growing steadily, with total tax revenue from January to October amounting to 15.34 trillion yuan, a growth of 1.7%, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous period [1] Fiscal Expenditure - Total national fiscal expenditure from January to October was 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The government has implemented more proactive fiscal policies, increasing expenditure intensity and optimizing expenditure structure, with a focus on key areas [1] - Notable increases in specific expenditure categories include social security and employment (up 9.3%), science and technology (up 5.7%), and education (up 4.7%) [1] Debt and Financing - The government has accelerated the use of bond funds, with total expenditures from various types of bonds, including local government special bonds and central financial institution special bonds, amounting to 4.54 trillion yuan [1]