研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，早盘波动下行，午后下行加速后横盘至收盘， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.47%，10 年期 T2606 下跌 0.13%， | | | | | 5 年期 TF2606 下跌 0.10%，2 年期 TS2606 下跌 0.06%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 4095 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 4000 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期。周三央行还开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期，当日有 3000 亿元 MLF | | | | | 到期。周三有国库现金定存到期 1500 亿元。三者合计当日净投放 1595 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅上行， ...

[tabl中e_山pa每ge日1点] 评 [table_subject] 2026 年 2 月 24 日 证券研究报告·中山每日点评 马年首日收涨 ——2 月 24 日 A 股市场点评 [中ta山bl证e_券inv研es究t]所 [[分ttaa析bbll师ee__：rree唐ssee晋aarr荣cchh]] 登记编号：S0290517120002 邮箱：tangjr@zszq.com 分析师：方鹏飞 登记编号：S0290519010001 邮箱：fangpf@zszq.com 分析师：葛淼 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 1.市场整体表现 表 1 主要指数涨跌幅度 | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.87 | 北证 50 | 0.37 | | 深证成指 | 1.36 | 万得全 A | 1.06 | | 沪深 300 | 1.01 | 中证 500 | 1.12 | | 科创 50 | -0.34 | 红利指数 | 1.86 | 资料来源：Wind，中山证券研 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. In the long - term, with low interest rates, "asset shortage", and policy - guided long - term funds entering the market, the domestic market has sufficient funds, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of stock indices is expected to remain unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices for the long - term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Forecast of Interest - rate Products - In the previous week, the central bank conducted 1652.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1246.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders, 500 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase matured, and 1000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase was conducted [4] - In the week of February 24 - 28 after the Spring Festival, 2252.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, including 1452.4 billion yuan, 400 billion yuan, and 400 billion yuan maturing on February 24th, 25th, and 26th respectively. On February 25th, 300 billion yuan of MLF and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will also mature [5] Stock Index Market - During the Spring Festival, global major stock indices generally performed strongly. From February 14th to 22nd, 2026, the US Nasdaq Index rose 1.5%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.1%, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.2%, and the South Korean Composite Index rose 5.5%. Chinese assets were generally stable, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell 0.6%, and the Hong Kong stock market showed a "first - down - then - up" trend [6] - Before the festival, the A - share market adjusted significantly due to rising risk - aversion sentiment. After the festival, it is likely to have a restorative rebound [6][7] Price and Volume Data of Stock Index Futures | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (bp or %) | | | (bp or %) | | DRO01 | 1.31 | 4.76 (bp) | DR007 | 1.32 | - 10.48 (bp) | | GC001 | 1.47 | 19.50 (bp) | GC007 | 1.48 | 8.50 (bp) | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.10 (bp) | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 (bp) | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.31 | 0.05 (bp) | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.54 | 0.53 (bp) | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.80 | 0.81 (bp) | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.08 | 0.00 (bp) | | CSI 300 | 4660 | - 1.25% | IF Current Month | 4643 | - 1.6% | | SSE 50 | 3034 | - 1.47% | IH Current Month | 3025 | - 1.9% | | CSI 500 | 8300 | - 1.47% | IC Current Month | 8283 | - 2.0% | | CSI 1000 | 8205 | - 1.32% | IM Current Month | 8200 | - 1.7% | | IF Trading Volume | 120319 | 75.0 | IF Open Interest | 291728 | 3.8 | | IH Trading Volume | 61205 | 84.8 | IH Open Interest | 110461 | 9.2 | | IC Trading Volume | 141906 | 24.5 | IC Open Interest | 298512 | 0.2 | | IM Trading Volume | 186228 | 19.8 | IM Open Interest | 379866 | - 1.1% [4][6] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation | Project | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | - 45.44% | 10.47% | 4.94% | 4.76% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 37.47% | 6.90% | 1.70% | 2.81% | | IC Premium/Discount | - 24.31% | 4.36% | 5.09% | 5.34% | | IM Premium/Discount | - 7.16% | 2.82% | 7.03% | 7.58% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net injection of 58.05 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 15 billion yuan. From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) was overall flat, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the expected net payment of government bonds is 390.4 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 169.7 billion yuan. On January 30, 2026, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.32 years and 0.16 years week - on - week respectively [2]. - At the end of the month, the central bank had a net injection of 7 - day reverse repurchases. In February, 1.5 trillion yuan of medium - long - term liquidity will mature. The impact on the capital market in February may mainly come from the increasing cash withdrawal by residents before the Spring Festival, but the central bank is expected to smooth short - term disturbances, and the capital market is expected to cross the Spring Festival relatively smoothly [6]. - The capital interest rate increased marginally and crossed the month smoothly. The net financing scale of government bonds increased. The maturity yield of NCDs was overall flat, and the net financing amount continued to be negative [7][8]. - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. The durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased marginally [9]. Summary by Directory Capital Market - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 58.05 billion yuan; the treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 15 billion yuan; the MLF matured 20 billion yuan, and 90 billion yuan was injected this month, with a total net injection of 70 billion yuan. In February, the 3M and 6M repurchase - style reverse repurchase maturities are 70 billion and 50 billion yuan respectively, and the MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, with a total medium - long - term liquidity maturity of 1.5 trillion yuan [6]. - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 0.3 and 3.7 basis points respectively compared with January 19 - 23, 2026; the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 8.4 and 8.7 basis points respectively [7]. - From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the net financing amount of government bonds was about 515.03 billion yuan, an increase of about 268.5 billion yuan compared with January 19 - 25, 2026. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the expected net financing amount of government bonds is about 390.4 billion yuan [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of January 30, 2026, the 1M and 3M NCD maturity yields increased by 4.5 and 0.2 basis points respectively compared with January 23, 2026; the 1Y NCD maturity yield was flat. The NCD yield entered a consolidation phase after two weeks of recovery. There may still be room for the NCD yield to decline, but short - term pre - Spring Festival capital market fluctuations may hinder the realization of the decline [8]. - From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the net financing amount of NCDs was about - 51.3 billion yuan. The expected maturity repayment amount from February 2 - 8, 2026 is 169.7 billion yuan, and the previous week's maturity repayment amount was 428.4 billion yuan. The NCD maturity scale in February is about 1.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.46 trillion yuan month - on - month [8]. Institutional Behavior - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.68%, compared with 107.81% from January 19 - 23, 2026. On January 30 and January 23, 2026, the estimated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market were about 107.41% and 107.68% respectively [9]. - On January 30, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.02 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32 years, at the 68.0% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.45 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 years, at the 15.0% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].

Group 1: Money Market Overview - In 2025, the total transaction volume in the money market reached 179.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year, with an average daily transaction of 7.25 trillion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The central bank implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, utilizing various tools to inject liquidity into the market, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 64,315 billion yuan throughout the year [3] - The average daily balance in the money market increased by 3% year-on-year to 12.2 trillion yuan, while the daily net lending balance of large commercial banks decreased by 12%, and that of money market funds and policy banks increased by 9% and 15.9%, respectively [5] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - In 2025, the bond issuance volume reached 54.69 trillion yuan, with 26,000 bonds issued, marking a 14% increase year-on-year, and net financing increased by 31.8% to 20.33 trillion yuan [6] - The average daily transaction in the cash bond market was 15.14 billion yuan, with a total of 907.5 million transactions, reflecting a 2.9% increase year-on-year [7] - The yield curve for government bonds steepened, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the overall credit spreads narrowed [8] Group 3: Interest Rate Swap Market - The interest rate swap curve steepened, with significant increases in long-term rates; the average daily transaction volume in the RMB interest rate swap market increased by 18.5% year-on-year, with a nominal principal total of 44.3 trillion yuan [9] - The daily average transaction volume for standard bond forwards and interest rate options also saw year-on-year increases, indicating a growing interest in these financial instruments [9]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that both being trapped in investments and missing out on opportunities are risks that require attention and potential stop-loss actions [1] Group 2 - The central bank conducted a 125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 111.7 billion yuan due to the maturity of 867 billion yuan in reverse repos and 1500 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [3] - The money market is balanced, with the DR001 rate around 1.40% and DR007 at approximately 1.49% [3] Group 3 - The stock market experienced a slight increase, with the marginal MLF rate dropping to 1.5%, and bond market rates also slightly decreased [5] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.83% but retreated to 1.8275% during the morning session [5] Group 4 - The article notes a unique situation in the bond market where the MLF rate is at 1.50%, with only a 10 basis point difference between the 1-year MLF and 7-day OMO rates, referred to as the "cutest interest rate spread" [6] - The stock market is characterized by active trading strategies, with participants engaging in arbitrage and tactical trading [6]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 8 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the third consecutive month of equal-scale operations [1] - The upcoming maturity of 1.1 trillion yuan in 3-month reverse repos on January 8 indicates a continuation of the policy tool without increasing the scale, reflecting the central bank's strategy to manage liquidity [1] - Market analysts expect the central bank to conduct another 6-month reverse repurchase operation in January, with a likelihood of increasing the scale due to the upcoming maturity of 600 billion yuan [1][4] Group 2 - Factors affecting the funding environment in January include credit demand, tax payments, government bond repayments, and cash withdrawals for the Spring Festival, which may tighten liquidity [2][3] - The anticipated issuance of local government bonds in January, following the early allocation of the 2026 debt limit, is expected to contribute to a tighter funding situation [4] - The first month of the year typically sees higher tax payments, which will further impact the liquidity landscape, as companies confirm and declare their previous year's income tax [4] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the central bank may increase its purchases of government bonds in January, with a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before the Spring Festival [6] - The overall expectation for the first quarter of 2026 includes potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, with liquidity easing being a significant factor [5][6] - The central bank's approach in January is expected to be less aggressive in tightening liquidity compared to previous years, indicating a potential increase in government bond transactions and a higher likelihood of RRR cuts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges investors face in the capital markets, emphasizing the importance of understanding one's own capabilities and the types of investments that can be successfully managed. It suggests that many investors rely on luck rather than skill, leading to inconsistent financial outcomes [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The stock market experienced slight fluctuations with a mild increase, while the funding environment remained balanced and slightly loose. The central bank conducted a net injection of 246.8 billion yuan through reverse repos and treasury cash deposits [3][5]. - The overnight funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.26% and DR007 slightly increasing to approximately 1.52% due to year-end factors [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market showed narrow fluctuations in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.84% [5]. - Recent data indicated that the weighted average rates for various repo codes were as follows: R001 at 1.35% (down 1 bp), R007 at 1.53% (unchanged), and R014 at 1.84% (unchanged) [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that investors are most optimistic about commodities and stocks for the upcoming year, while bonds are largely disregarded [5]. - The article highlights a trend where investment education courses are being marketed, suggesting a perception that investing is inherently risky, with a common outcome of "one profit, two breakevens, and seven losses" [5].

Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The market style tends to exhibit defensive characteristics at the end of the year, with large-cap value stocks outperforming, while the small-cap style represented by the CSI 1000 faces pressure [1] - Institutional investors are likely to adopt a conservative investment approach due to year-end performance assessments, leading to a decrease in risk appetite [1] - As the market enters the dense disclosure period for annual earnings forecasts in January, earnings uncertainty becomes a key concern, prompting funds to flow towards more stable large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 219 billion yuan last week, with upcoming maturities including 4.575 billion yuan in reverse repos and 3 billion yuan in MLF [2] - Money market rates are declining, with short and long-term government bond yields also decreasing, while the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has expanded [2] - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market has increased, with a rise in financing balances and net purchases of financing funds amounting to 3.42 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences and Fund Flows - High net inflows were observed in the electronics, communications, and power equipment sectors, with significant net subscriptions for the A500 ETF [3] - The information technology ETF saw substantial net subscriptions, while the military industry ETF experienced notable redemptions [3] - The highest net subscription was for the Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF, while the highest net redemption was for the Fuguo CSI Military Leaders ETF [3] Group 4: Overseas Economic Indicators - In the U.S., the November non-farm payroll and CPI significantly fell below expectations, with the overall CPI rising 2.74% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.06% [3] - The core CPI also rose 2.63% year-on-year, below the consensus expectation of 3.03%, indicating inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's target level [3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021 [3]

Report Highlights - 2025 Dec 15 - 19, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a small net withdrawal of funds. From Dec 15 - 21, the net payment scale of government bonds increased compared with the previous week, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected net payment of government bonds is 30.66 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs is about 88.22 billion yuan. On Dec 19, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.20 years and increased by 0.04 years week - on - week respectively [2]. Core Viewpoints - The central bank carried out a small - scale net withdrawal of reverse repurchase funds and restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase to deal with the cross - year funds. The decline in DR001 weighted average interest rate was supported by year - end fiscal expenditures, and the decline in bond yields was related to the pricing of loose funds. The net financing scale of government bonds increased slightly, and the net payment of government bonds will have a greater impact on the capital side in the future. Most of the maturity yields of inter - bank CDs declined, and the net financing amount remained negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term pure bond funds changed in different directions [6][7][8]. Summary by Section Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From Dec 15 - 19, the central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases had a net withdrawal of 1.1 billion yuan. From Dec 22 - 26, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 45.75 billion yuan, medium - term lending facilities (MLF) worth 30 billion yuan, and treasury cash fixed deposits worth 12 billion yuan will mature [6]. - **Fund Interest Rates**: From Dec 15 - 19, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.27% and 1.35% respectively, down 1.5 and 1.0 basis points compared with Dec 8 - 12; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.44% and 1.51% respectively, down 1.1 and up 1.4 basis points compared with Dec 8 - 12. The continuous decline of DR001 was supported by fiscal expenditures, and the decline of bond yields on Dec 18 and 19 might be due to the lagged pricing of loose funds [7]. - **Government Bond Financing**: From Dec 15 - 21, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 1.606 billion yuan, an increase of about 130 million yuan compared with Dec 8 - 14. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected net payment scale of government bonds is 30.66 billion yuan, and the impact on the capital side will increase [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of Dec 19, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank CDs were 1.6125% and 1.5950% respectively, down 0.2 and 2.0 basis points compared with Dec 12; the 1Y maturity yield was 1.6350%, down 2.5 basis points compared with Dec 12. The decline was due to previous adjustments, expectations of interest rate cuts in early 2026, and the pricing of continuous loose funds [8]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From Dec 15 - 21, the net financing amount of inter - bank CDs was about - 6.71 billion yuan. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected maturity repayment amount is 88.22 billion yuan, and the scale of rolling over at maturity decreased marginally but remained at a high level [8]. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From Dec 15 - 19, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.92%, higher than 107.54% in Dec 8 - 12 [9]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: On Dec 19, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.20 years week - on - week to 4.71 years, at the 87.3% quantile since early 2022; the median duration of short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.04 years week - on - week to 1.54 years, at the 22.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].