值得注意的是，在国库定存利率下行的同时，资金市场利率却出现小幅回升。11月24日，上海银行间同 业拆放利率数据显示，除隔夜shibor微幅下跌外，其余品种均呈上行态势。截至当日11时，隔夜shibor下 降0.4个基点报1.3160%；7天期shibor上调3个基点，报1.447%；一个月期shibor上调0.1个基点，报 1.52%；三个月期shibor上升0.2个基点，报1.58%。 11月24日，财政部、中国人民银行以利率招标、单一价位中标方式进行了2025年中央国库现金管理商业 银行定期存款（十一期）招投标。此期存款期限为1个月，中标总量为1200亿元，中标利率为1.73%， 较上期1.76%的中标利率小幅下降3个基点，进一步释放出银行体系流动性合理充裕的信号。 国库现金定存，是指财政部和人民银行将国库现金存入商业银行的操作，其利率由投标过程中的竞争决 定。这一利率走低通常意味着商业银行对这部分资金的需求意愿有所减弱，反映出当前银行体系的流动 性整体处于合理充裕的水平，并不十分"缺钱"。 从全年操作轨迹看，今年以来中央国库现金定存已累计开展12期，覆盖1个月、2个月和3个月三类期 限。具体来看，前6期 ...

【笔记20251124— 债农日渐神经衰弱（-股市微涨+央行增量续作MLF+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3387亿元7天期逆回购操作与2000亿元国库现金定存招投标，今日有2830亿元逆回购到期，合计净投放2557元。此外，央行将于明日以 固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。本月MLF到期9000亿元。 不要去纠结于日内行情的波动，或者一两天行情的波动， 时间空间越小，市场的随机性越强，混沌状态越大，参考意义越小 。 ——笔记哥《交易》 今天看到一个魔幻现实：马斯克曾领导的政府效率部提前8个月解散。这证明：你能用第一性原理把火箭送上天，但无法用同样的方法运行政府。在政治 的舞台上，最高效的部门，往往也是最早领盒饭的那个。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure on the upside. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and a new driving force is awaited for the index to rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.53% with a 1.66bp increase, DR007 at 1.52% with a 0.03bp increase, GC001 at 1.69% with a 35.50bp increase, GC007 at 1.56% with a 5.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.58% unchanged, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged, 1 - year treasury at 1.40% with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.54% unchanged, 10 - year treasury at 1.80% with a 0.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13% with a - 1.00bp change [3]. - **Open - Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan. This week, 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature on Thursday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.65% to 4568, the SSE 50 fell 0.3% to 3003, the CSI 500 fell 1.17% to 7151, and the CSI 1000 fell 1% to 7448. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.9261 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with Internet services, cultural media, and education sectors leading the gains, and coal, battery, steel, fertilizer, energy metals, shipping ports, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 6.6% to 121,863, and its open interest increased by 2.2% to 278,688; IH volume decreased by 4.3% to 54,759, and its open interest decreased by 3.4% to 97,691; IC volume increased by 15% to 134,440, and its open interest increased by 3.3% to 254,019; IM volume increased by 10.4% to 217,767, and its open interest increased by 19% to 362,020 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were - 3.75%, 3.40%, 2.96%, and 3.43% respectively; IH's were - 2.36%, 2.12%, 0.88%, and 1.07% respectively; IC's were - 3.03%, 11.73%, 10.63%, and 11.05% respectively; IM's were 4.08%, 15.22%, 13.31%, and 12.89% respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Index indicates that liquidity pressure in November is expected to increase compared to October, with a liquidity gap around 2 trillion yuan, as many market institutions anticipate seasonal pressures due to the maturity of financial instruments [1][2][3]. Liquidity Conditions - In October, the central bank maintained a relatively proactive liquidity injection strategy, with a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan, the largest monthly value since March 2025 [2]. - The central bank's operations included a 1.1 trillion yuan front-loaded reverse repo to ease the liquidity pressure at the beginning of the month [2]. - The liquidity gap for November is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with some institutions suggesting it could exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which many institutions believe could replace the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [1][7]. - The necessity for an RRR cut in the fourth quarter is perceived to be lower, with 17 out of 20 institutions indicating a reduced likelihood of such a move [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of government bond trading may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, allowing for continued liquidity support without aggressive monetary easing [8][9]. Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to experience renewed downward trends, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially approaching the low of 1.7% seen in August [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that while the central bank's easing measures may be less aggressive, the need for monetary policy support remains due to ongoing economic challenges [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term shock adjustment of stock indices is mainly affected by intensified overseas disturbances and adjustments in some high - position sectors. As unfavorable factors such as trade frictions gradually ease, stock indices are expected to return to the upward channel. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. It is recommended to take a long - term long position [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - Interest rate products' closing prices and changes: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.52bp increase; DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.40 with a 5.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57 with a 6.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.48 with a 0.25bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.62 with a 0.82bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 0.50bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.02 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations in the open market, with 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net investment (including treasury cash) of 1981 billion yuan [4] - This week, 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1890 billion, 1595 billion, 1382 billion, 2125 billion, and 1680 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, 7000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Market - Stock index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4661 with a 1.18% increase; SSE 50 at 3046 with a 0.62% increase; CSI 500 at 7259 with a 1.62% increase; CSI 1000 at 7419 with a 1.52% increase. Futures closing prices and changes: IF current - month contract at 4648 with a 1.2% increase; IH current - month contract at 3048 with a 0.8% increase; IC current - month contract at 7212 with a 1.7% increase; IM current - month contract at 7369 with a 1.7% increase [7] - Futures trading volume and position changes: IF trading volume was 116181 with a 9.4% decrease, and position was 255413 with a 3.5% decrease; IH trading volume was 58979 with a 2.2% decrease, and position was 95329 with a 1.4% increase; IC trading volume was 137728 with a 5.1% decrease, and position was 243604 with a 4.2% decrease; IM trading volume was 224453 with a 13.8% decrease, and position was 349089 with a 7.0% decrease [7] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.7; SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3045.8; CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7258.5; CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7419.2. Shenwan primary industry indices generally rose, with communication (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while only agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.4%) and food and beverage (- 0.9%) declined. The daily trading volume of A - shares last week was 15749 billion, 17043 billion, 15180 billion, 15106 billion, and 17592 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 3494.9 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 3.70%, 3.75%, 3.06%, and 3.10% respectively; IH premium rates are - 1.19%, - 0.62%, - 0.35%, and - 0.30% respectively; IC premium rates are 9.04%, 9.19%, 9.20% respectively; IM premium rates are 9.47%, 11.05%, 11.58%, and 11.66% respectively. The values in parentheses are annualized premium and discount rates (green for premium, red for discount) [9]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.16%, the 10-year main contract up 0.05%, the 5-year main contract up 0.05%, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% [1] - The yields on major interbank rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down 1.9 basis points to 1.9010%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield down 1 basis point to 1.7580%, the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield down 1.35 basis points to 2.0725%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down 2.8 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 159.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bid amount of 159.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 159.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 91 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed an overall balanced funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions fluctuating around 1.31% [2] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using certificates of deposit and credit bonds at around 1.4%, slightly lower than the previous day [2] - The central bank's shift to net injections is aimed at supporting liquidity amid tax periods and month-end pressures, with expectations for continued liquidity support [2] Operational Recommendations - The bond market experienced fluctuations but lacks direction due to new fund redemption fee regulations and upcoming significant meetings [3] - Two scenarios are considered: if incremental policies are below expectations, investors can bet on yield spread recovery and consider long positions in long-term bonds; if policies exceed expectations, short-term risk appetite may rise, potentially suppressing bonds [3] - In a supportive liquidity environment, a pullback in the bond market could present buying opportunities if T2512 falls below 107.4 [3] - Given the current uncertainties, a cautious approach is recommended, focusing on observing market conditions rather than aggressive strategies [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that liquidity is expected to remain comfortable in the upcoming week, with a stable transition across the quarter despite some fluctuations observed from September 23 to September 25, where the central bank's operations were relatively cautious [1][12] - On September 26, the central bank injected 600 billion yuan through a 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, which revitalized market sentiment and helped overnight funds recover to below 1.35%, supported by increased fiscal spending at the quarter's end [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that in October, funding rates typically operate around a central level, with early month conditions being relatively loose due to the easing of regulatory assessments and the influx of fiscal spending [18] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see nearly 1.7 trillion yuan in public market maturities, including 1.021 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, 500 billion yuan in buyout repos, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [3][24] - Government bonds are set to issue over 200 billion yuan, with planned issuances of 221 billion yuan in national bonds and 213 billion yuan in local bonds, while maturing national bonds total 2.594 trillion yuan and local bonds 946 billion yuan [4][35] - The willingness of major banks to lend has shown signs of recovery, with funding rates declining; for instance, DR001 decreased by 6.81 basis points to 1.32% as of October 10 [5][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank had a net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repos, and conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation on September 15. The weekly average of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased. The net contribution of government bonds increased, and most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose. The money market rate increased marginally, with a tight - then - loose pattern during the week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 850.1 billion yuan [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Fund Injection**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repo had a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation was carried out, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan for the month. By conducting outright reverse repos and MLF operations in different periods of the month, it helps maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity [6]. - **Money Market Tightening**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.3 and 6.9 basis points respectively compared with September 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 2.7 and 2.0 basis points respectively. The money market tightened marginally, and there will still be impacts from tax payments and quarter - end factors in the later period [7]. - **Government Bond Net Contribution**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net contribution of government bonds was about 344.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 222.6 billion yuan compared with September 1 - 7. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Maturity Yields**: As of September 12, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs increased by 10.6 and 1.0 basis points respectively compared with September 5, and the 1Y NCD maturity yield increased by 0.5 basis points [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 468.3 billion yuan. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 850.1 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has decreased compared with the previous week [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average value of the estimated inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.55%, lower than the estimated average value of 107.70% from September 1 - 5 [9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total net injection of 621.9 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations on August 25, 2023, with a total of 28.84 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in 1-year MLF [1] - The net injection in the open market for the week of August 18-22 reached 1.3652 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of increasing liquidity despite some tightening due to tax payments [1][2] - The average rate for DR001 in August remains lower than in June and July, suggesting a potential stabilization around 1.4% if the PBOC maintains its current stance [2][3] Group 2 - The PBOC's operations are aimed at maintaining market liquidity and stabilizing expectations, with a focus on the execution of monetary policy rather than immediate rate cuts [3] - The central bank is expected to continue increasing MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased liquidity support [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the market's attention will shift towards cross-month liquidity as significant reverse repos are set to mature, but substantial volatility is not anticipated [2][3]

Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and introducing a package of financial support measures, which have shown significant effects in supporting the real economy [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitoring the transmission and actual effects of previously implemented policies to better support domestic demand and stabilize social expectations [1][2] Liquidity Management - In the first half of the year, the central bank's liquidity management became more refined, with a net injection of 36,863 billion yuan through various tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [2][3] - The weighted average of overnight repo rates and pledged repo rates increased slightly, indicating a rise in the central tendency of funding rates [3] Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a total issuance of 27.1 trillion yuan in bonds, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with net financing reaching 10.5 trillion yuan, reflecting strong policy support [4] - The issuance of special bonds has increased, particularly in infrastructure investment, which is crucial for economic growth [4] Yield Curve and Interest Rates - The yield curve for government bonds flattened, with varying changes in yields across different maturities, indicating a complex market response [5][6] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds decreased by 32 basis points year-on-year, contributing to lower financing costs for the real economy [4] Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with significant increases in swap prices for various maturities, reflecting market adjustments [7] - The trading volume of interest rate swaps increased, with a notable rise in daily average transactions, indicating heightened market activity [7]