下周资金有望延续舒适状态 1、核心观点 （1）资金平稳跨季：临近跨季，资金有所波折，9/23-9/25，央行投放相 对审慎，7 天逆回购延续净回笼，资金利率受跨季影响开始抬升，7 天资金 波动幅度更大，大行净融出开始回落。9/26，14 天逆回购投放 6000 亿元， 以此为转折，市场情绪得到重振，隔夜资金修复至 1.35%以下，叠加季末财 政支出加力，或也对流动性形成一定支撑，资金平稳跨季。 期间，国有大行净融出季节性回落，但国股行存单发行价格有快速攀升趋 势，主因临近跨季，信贷冲量及流动性考核的需求或推升存单发行诉求。 （2）下周有望延续宽松态势：历史上的 10 月，上旬资金利率通常围绕中 枢运行，月初偏松。支撑因素在于监管考核等跨季因素消退，银行融出意 愿修复，同时，季初月份，随着财政支出资金到位，对流动性形成补充， 以及国庆假期过后，取现资金逐渐回流银行体系。中下旬起，资金利率相 较中枢震荡抬升，主因 10 月税期通常在下旬时点，资金面往往受到税期走 款和跨月压力的共振，而 10 月通常为缴税大月，税期走款规模相对更大。 聚焦今年，跨季后资金如期转松，月初两个交易日，资金利率回落、国有 大行融出意愿修 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank had a net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repos, and conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation on September 15. The weekly average of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased. The net contribution of government bonds increased, and most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose. The money market rate increased marginally, with a tight - then - loose pattern during the week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 850.1 billion yuan [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Fund Injection**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repo had a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation was carried out, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan for the month. By conducting outright reverse repos and MLF operations in different periods of the month, it helps maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity [6]. - **Money Market Tightening**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.3 and 6.9 basis points respectively compared with September 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 2.7 and 2.0 basis points respectively. The money market tightened marginally, and there will still be impacts from tax payments and quarter - end factors in the later period [7]. - **Government Bond Net Contribution**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net contribution of government bonds was about 344.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 222.6 billion yuan compared with September 1 - 7. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Maturity Yields**: As of September 12, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs increased by 10.6 and 1.0 basis points respectively compared with September 5, and the 1Y NCD maturity yield increased by 0.5 basis points [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 468.3 billion yuan. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 850.1 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has decreased compared with the previous week [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average value of the estimated inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.55%, lower than the estimated average value of 107.70% from September 1 - 5 [9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total net injection of 621.9 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations on August 25, 2023, with a total of 28.84 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in 1-year MLF [1] - The net injection in the open market for the week of August 18-22 reached 1.3652 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of increasing liquidity despite some tightening due to tax payments [1][2] - The average rate for DR001 in August remains lower than in June and July, suggesting a potential stabilization around 1.4% if the PBOC maintains its current stance [2][3] Group 2 - The PBOC's operations are aimed at maintaining market liquidity and stabilizing expectations, with a focus on the execution of monetary policy rather than immediate rate cuts [3] - The central bank is expected to continue increasing MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased liquidity support [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the market's attention will shift towards cross-month liquidity as significant reverse repos are set to mature, but substantial volatility is not anticipated [2][3]

Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and introducing a package of financial support measures, which have shown significant effects in supporting the real economy [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitoring the transmission and actual effects of previously implemented policies to better support domestic demand and stabilize social expectations [1][2] Liquidity Management - In the first half of the year, the central bank's liquidity management became more refined, with a net injection of 36,863 billion yuan through various tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [2][3] - The weighted average of overnight repo rates and pledged repo rates increased slightly, indicating a rise in the central tendency of funding rates [3] Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a total issuance of 27.1 trillion yuan in bonds, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with net financing reaching 10.5 trillion yuan, reflecting strong policy support [4] - The issuance of special bonds has increased, particularly in infrastructure investment, which is crucial for economic growth [4] Yield Curve and Interest Rates - The yield curve for government bonds flattened, with varying changes in yields across different maturities, indicating a complex market response [5][6] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds decreased by 32 basis points year-on-year, contributing to lower financing costs for the real economy [4] Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with significant increases in swap prices for various maturities, reflecting market adjustments [7] - The trading volume of interest rate swaps increased, with a notable rise in daily average transactions, indicating heightened market activity [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market mainly traded on the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week as no incremental policies were further introduced. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies from the July Politburo meeting will signal a new round of supply - side reform and focuses on the policy priorities for the second - half economic work [7]. - With the short - term ebb of hot topics, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down in the short term, presenting a volatile pattern. The market also pays attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the Sino - US trade consultation on Wednesday [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - **Market Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.52 with a - 13.41bp change, DR007 at 1.65 with a 7.64bp change, GC001 at 1.35 with a 26.00bp change, etc. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3.00bp to 4.40 [4]. - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 4000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. With 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 2000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing, the net injection was 1095 billion yuan. This week, 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The inter - bank market liquidity has tightened recently, with DR001 rising above 1.5% and DR007 above 1.65% [5]. Stock Index Market - **Market Data**: The CSI 300 closed at 4127 with a - 0.53% change, the SSE 50 at 2796 with a - 0.60% change, etc. The trading volumes and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69%, the SSE 50 rose 1.12%, etc. The daily average trading volume increased by 2778.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the Shenwan primary industry index, construction materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), etc. led the gains, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [6]. - **Market Situation**: The market was mainly driven by the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week. Stocks were mainly hyped around the Yarlung Zangbo River project, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and Hainan Free Trade Zone themes [7]. Futures Premium and Discount - **Premium and Discount Data**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 2.03%, IH's current - month contract had a discount of - 0.06%, IC's current - month contract had a premium of 11.71%, and IM's current - month contract had a premium of 11.00% [8].

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank conducted a net liquidity withdrawal of 70.5 billion CNY through OMO this week, while on Friday, it injected 200 billion CNY via MLF[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos rose by 0.45 trillion CNY to 7.70 trillion CNY, although it fell below the previous week by Friday[3] - The funding gap index dropped to -5012 on Tuesday but rebounded to -764 on Thursday, before falling again to -918 on Friday, remaining above last week's -3145[3] Bond Market Insights - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 271 billion CNY, with cumulative new general bonds issued in 2025 reaching 517.4 billion CNY and new special bonds at 2.5944 trillion CNY[4] - The bond market experienced increased volatility, with concerns about a potential shift in monetary policy due to the central bank's actions[21] - The issuance scale of government bonds in July was 2.44 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 1.25 trillion CNY, which is approximately 150 billion CNY lower than expected[4] Institutional Behavior - Large banks' net financing fell below 4 trillion CNY, while the overall rigid net financing from banks reached a new low since late May[3] - Non-bank rigid financing saw a decrease followed by an increase, remaining above last week, with money market funds and other products showing an upward trend[3] - The cross-month progress in the interbank market was 19.9%, slightly below the 20-24 year average by 0.3 percentage points, but higher than the same period in 2022 and 2023[19]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - DR001 closed at 1.36 with a -9.56bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -1.66bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a 4.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.47 with a -1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with a -0.20bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.35, 1.52, and 1.68 respectively, with changes of 0.25bp, 1.65bp, and 1.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.44 with a -3.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 1707 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 2262 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 555 billion yuan [3] - This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on July 25 and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing on July 22 [4] 2. Stock Index Data - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4086, 2772, 6161.3, and 6612.3 respectively, with changes of 0.67%, 0.28%, 1.01%, and 0.92% [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' closing prices and changes are presented, along with their volume and open interest changes [5] - The trading volume of the A - share market reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1289 billion yuan from last Friday, with most sectors rising and the banking sector falling [5] 3. Core Views - With the end of the tax - payment period, inter - bank market funds are abundant [4] - The upcoming policies for ten key industries and the start of a major hydropower project are positive factors [6] - Domestic and overseas factors are generally positive, with A - share liquidity and market sentiment strong, and stock indices expected to be bullish [6] 4. Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has initiated a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, indicating a seasonal liquidity easing in July, with expectations for a slight decline in funding rates [1][4][5]. Monetary Policy Actions - On July 1, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 1310 billion yuan, with both bidding and winning amounts matching this figure, and the operation rate set at 1.40% [1][4]. - A total of 4065 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature, leading to a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan from the open market [1]. Market Conditions - The market is expected to experience seasonal easing in July, with funding rates likely to stabilize and slightly decline [5][6]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with overnight Shibor rising by 5.1 basis points to 1.422% and 7-day Shibor increasing by 9.5 basis points to 1.763% prior to July 1 [4]. Economic Outlook - The first half of the year showed strong economic performance, reducing the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term [7][8]. - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth targets [5][9]. Future Expectations - The liquidity easing trend is expected to continue, with the PBOC likely to implement measures to ensure market liquidity remains abundant [6][9]. - The central bank may utilize various tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, to manage liquidity effectively throughout the second half of the year [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the coordinated efforts of total control and structural tools to direct financial resources towards the weak links in the real economy, further consolidating the positive trend of economic recovery since May [1] - In May, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, releasing 1 trillion yuan in funds [2] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank market was 173.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month but an increase of 4.4% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The bond market saw a total issuance of 4.48 trillion yuan in May, a month-on-month decrease of 9.8% but a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated between 1.63% and 1.73% in May, with the yield curve showing an upward trend [4][5] - The average weighted rates for overnight repurchase agreements (DR001) and pledged repos (R001) decreased by 17 basis points to 1.5% and 1.54%, respectively [3] Group 3 - The overall liquidity in the market remained balanced and loose, with a net injection of 1.3998 trillion yuan throughout May [2] - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with the 1-year and 5-year Shibor 3M swap rates showing slight increases [6] - The net financing in the bond market reached 2.11 trillion yuan in May, a month-on-month increase of 68% [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 300 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 118 billion due to 182 billion MLF maturing this month [1] - In June, the PBOC conducted a total of 1.4 trillion reverse repos to offset 1.2 trillion maturing reverse repos, resulting in a total net liquidity injection of 318 billion [1] - Analysts suggest that the continuous net liquidity injection is driven by large-scale government bond issuance and high maturing interbank certificates of deposit, aiming to stabilize market expectations and meet financing needs [1] Group 2 - The reliance on MLF and reverse repos has increased due to the suspension of government bond purchases, with expectations for the PBOC to restart bond buying as liquidity consumption rises [2] - As the end of the quarter approaches, interbank funding rates have increased, with R007 rising by 25.9 basis points to 1.82% and DR007 by 16.1 basis points to 1.67% [2] - The PBOC is expected to use various tools, including MLF and reverse repos, to maintain a net liquidity injection in the second half of the year, while also potentially resuming government bond transactions [2]