Group 1 - Platinum futures have seen a year-to-date increase of over 100%, driven by supply-demand imbalances and macroeconomic easing expectations, positioning platinum as a new leader in the precious metals market [1][2] - The NYMEX platinum futures price has surpassed $1862 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 105% this year, significantly outpacing gold's 63% rise [1][2] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a global platinum market shortage of 26.4 tons by 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand to 244.8 tons [3] Group 2 - The recent surge in platinum prices is attributed to multiple factors, including tightening physical supply, new energy industry policies, and geopolitical changes [2] - Analysts indicate that the platinum price increase is not a sudden event but has occurred in three phases, with significant supply issues emerging in the first phase due to extreme weather and power shortages in South Africa [2][3] - The introduction of new platinum futures in China and discussions around European fuel vehicle bans are expected to further enhance platinum's utilization value, particularly in hydrogen fuel applications [2][3] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive platinum prices upward in the short term [4][6] - The ongoing global transition towards decarbonization and the strategic value of platinum in the hydrogen energy sector are likely to sustain its demand and price appreciation in the long term [6][7] - The cessation of the value-added tax refund policy for platinum imports in China is expected to shift the market dynamics from policy-driven to market-driven, enhancing price discovery and international influence [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The platinum group metals (PGMs) have shown significant activity, with platinum and palladium prices rising sharply following previous increases in gold and silver prices. Platinum futures closed at 482.40 yuan/gram, while palladium futures surged over 4% to 407.60 yuan/gram. The driving factors behind this rise include macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiments, ongoing supply-demand imbalances, and high basis and price spreads [2][9]. Fundamental Analysis - **Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Support**: The Federal Reserve's easing expectations remain unaltered post-rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical risks have provided upward momentum for PGMs after strong performances in gold and silver [2][9]. - **Ongoing Supply-Demand Imbalances**: The London platinum and palladium borrowing rates have risen again, leading to tighter liquidity in the spot market. The marginal increase in palladium ETF holdings has further tightened investment demand, reinforcing price upward momentum [2][9]. - **High Basis and Price Spreads**: Currently, both platinum and palladium basis and domestic-international price spreads are at elevated levels. Continuous accumulation of physical inventory by arbitrage funds has driven up spot prices, which in turn has affected the futures market [2][9]. Correlation with Gold - The correlation between PGMs and gold is primarily due to their collective status as precious metals. Market sentiment towards precious metals can be influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical judgments. In the context of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical factors, the sentiment towards the entire precious metals sector remains strong [11]. - However, there are notable differences between gold and PGMs. From a financial perspective, gold is superior to platinum, which in turn is superior to palladium. Conversely, in terms of industrial applications, palladium leads, followed by platinum and then gold [11][4]. - Generally, when investors seek safety and certainty, gold is favored for its stability. In contrast, during economic recovery or industrial demand booms, platinum and palladium are more attractive due to their strong industrial demand. PGMs can serve as a complement to gold investments, enhancing portfolio flexibility but may involve higher volatility risks [11][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Viewpoints - The precious metal market is generally strong, with the London gold price rising continuously and the decline of the London silver price significantly narrowing. After the Fed's interest rate cut was fulfilled as expected, silver reached multiple historical highs and then had a short - term correction due to the squeeze caused by the continuous shortage of global physical silver inventory and the boost of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The Fed has internal differences on whether to worry more about inflation or the employment market, and FOMC officials currently do not show a high willingness to continue cutting interest rates. In the short term, considering that the market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut, the recent pulsed upward movement of silver may increase the short - term correction risk, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. The London gold is expected to have an upper resistance level of $4350 per ounce and a lower support level of $4250 per ounce; the London silver is expected to have an upper resistance level of $64.5 per ounce and a lower support level of $59 per ounce [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 970.66 yuan/gram, up 12.5 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 14793 yuan/kilogram, down 99 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 203,038 hands, down 836 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 7,206 hands, down 196 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 439,719 hands, up 147,983 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai silver is 2,357,087 hands, up 630,503 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 91,302 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 820,921 kilograms, up 36,893 kilograms [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 0 yuan, unchanged; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 14,638 yuan, down 83 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 970.66 yuan/gram, down 964.25 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 155 yuan/gram, up 16 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings are 1053.12 tons, up 2.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings are 16,102.90 tons, up 19.74 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 210,339 contracts, up 3,270 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 34,016 contracts, up 1,030 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.04; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.93, up 0.04. The VIX volatility index is 15.74, up 0.89; the CBOE gold volatility index is 21.46, up 0.49. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.57, down 0.06; the gold - silver ratio is 67.38, down 0.72 [2] Industry News - Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation is no longer the biggest enemy, and the downside risk of employment is more worthy of concern. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against the interest rate cut on Wednesday to wait for more data and expects more interest rate cuts next year than the median forecast. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester both said they hope the policy remains moderately restrictive. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 41.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.3%. The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and other senior officials have repeatedly signaled support for an interest rate hike. Although there is no clear opposition within the policy committee, the central bank said it will comprehensively evaluate potential market risks such as sharp stock market fluctuations and a sharp appreciation of the yen before making a final decision. If this interest rate hike is implemented, it will be the Bank of Japan's second increase in the policy rate since January 2025, after an 11 - month interval [2] Key Points to Watch - December 15, 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index; December 15, 23:00, US December NAHB Housing Market Index; December 16, 21:30, US November Non - farm Payrolls Report [2]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：震荡调整；白银：美股AI压力戳破上涨泡沫 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：950-990元/克、13700-15000元/千克 ◆ 黄金本周价格略有上涨，10月FOMC会议联储表态温和，且超预期扩表。我们认为黄金近期价格上涨强度有限，区间震荡概率更大。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.45%，伦敦银回升11.02%。金银比从前周的72.2回落至66.6，10年期TIPS回升至1.93%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.19%（2年期3.52%），美元指数录得98.4。 ◆ 本周白银波动显著放大，最高沪银触及15192元/千克，COMEX白银触及65美元/盎司。本周白银的上 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in the U.S. dollar index, resulting in a significant increase in international gold prices by over 2% on December 11 [1][3] - As of the close, the gold futures price for February delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange reached $4313.0 per ounce, marking a rise of 2.09% [3] - Silver futures prices continued their strong upward trend, driven by supply shortages, urgent spot inventory needs, and a surge in industrial demand due to global green transformation, with financial institutions optimistic about silver price increases in the coming year [3] Group 2 - The silver futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange for March delivery closed at $64.592 per ounce, reflecting a substantial increase of 5.84% and setting a new historical closing high [3]

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-12 市场偏向交易美联储宽松信号 金银继续走强 市场分析 就业市场方面，美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。截至11月 29日当周，续请失业金人数降至184万人，创四年来最大单周降幅，当周恰逢感恩节假期。此外，美国9月贸易逆 差环比大幅缩窄近11%，降至528亿美元，显著低于市场预期的633亿美元，创2020年6月以来最低值。当月美国出 口总值上升3%，创下史上第二高水平，进口仅温和增长0.6%。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-11，沪金主力合约开于954.48元/克，收于957.90元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.16%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.90元/克，收于969.80元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨1.24%。 2025-12-11，沪银主力合约开于14300.00元/千克，收于14488.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.80%。当日成交 量为1633505手，持仓量为423172手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于14525元/千克，收于15008元/千克， ...

市场分析人士指出，美联储年内第三次降息，将基准利率目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%，并启动400亿美 元短期国债购买计划，对金价构成支撑。 来源：环球网 北京时间12月11日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.52%报4258.30美元/盎司， COMEX白银期货涨2.24%报62.20美元/盎司。 《商业内幕》则发文称，美国银行市场策略分析师预计，黄金明年将上涨至每盎司4538美元，同比增长 8%，因为推动今年黄金上涨的因素预计将持续，例如大央行需求和全球财政赤字的增加。 47新闻发文称，市场正等待美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议结果，主要在4230美元左右的水平 上波动。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间12月10日，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.52%报4258.30美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨2.24%报62.20美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold futures showed volatility, breaking through $4220/oz on the morning of December 9, with a daily increase of 0.05%. However, on the previous trading day (December 8), gold prices fell below $4210/oz, with a daily decline of 0.79% [1][6] - Spot gold also faced pressure, falling below $4180/oz on the evening of December 8, with a daily drop of 0.39% [2][7] - Silver's main contract experienced a daily decline of 1%, currently priced at 13563.00 yuan [3][8] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - The crude oil market showed weakness, with WTI crude oil falling below $59/barrel on the morning of December 9, marking a daily decrease of 1.84% [4][9] - U.S. natural gas futures prices dropped significantly due to a narrowing forecast of temperature declines and production nearing record highs, with a 6% drop on the evening of December 8, followed by a further decline of over 9% on December 9 morning, currently priced at $3.849/million BTU [4][9] Group 3: Agricultural Futures - Coking coal's main contract price weakened, with a daily drop of 2% on the evening of December 8, currently priced at 1084.50 yuan [5][10]

基本面驱动有限 铂钯总体对金银震荡跟随 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 228/210/172 181/181/181 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 交易、套利数据追踪 7 第三章 基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 基本面驱动有限，铂金随黄金冲高回落；钯金低幅震荡跟随 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：本周，美国宏观数据集中发布，呈现通胀压力仍在、劳动力市场走弱表现。关键数据上，9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，大体 符合预期，尽管物价涨幅整体较为平缓，但特朗普政府对进口商品大规模加征关税的举措，已推高了美国消费者的终端售价。11月ADP就业 报告显示私营部门就业人数出现两年半以来最大降幅，劳动力市场显现压力。特朗普暗示哈塞特可能成为下一任美联储主席，哈塞特同时在市 场释放较强的鸽派信号，市场总体对美联储降息预期走强进行交易，美元指数走弱，为贵 ...