1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are both showing a relatively strong trend. Gold is driven by factors such as the resurgence of the tariff war and various overseas events, while silver is affected by overseas short - squeeze situations and tight spot supplies. The report maintains a positive outlook on the prices of both gold and silver, expecting silver to potentially outperform gold in the medium term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - This week, London gold rose by 2.29%, and London silver rose by 6.63%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.2 in the previous week to 79.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.75%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.05% (2 - year 3.52%), and the US dollar index was recorded at 98.82 [3][4]. - After the holiday, Shanghai gold opened higher, reaching a maximum of 921 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver reached a maximum of 49.965 US dollars, and London silver reached 51.221 US dollars, breaking historical highs [3][4]. 3.2 Price and Spread Analysis - **Overseas Price - Spread**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 17.655 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 49.3 US dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 2.611 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.12 US dollars/ounce [10][13]. - **Domestic Price - Spread**: This week, the gold futures - spot spread was - 3.82 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 23 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 8.14 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 55 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [17][19][23][28]. 3.3 Inventory and Position Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 53.2%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 9.41 million ounces to 522 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio dropped to 35.1%. Gold futures inventory increased by 5094 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 12.21 tons to 1192 tons [37][39][42]. - **Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver increased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.42 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 289 tons [44][50][52]. 3.4 Core Drivers of Gold - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and 10YTIPS continued to decline [62]. - The report also analyzed factors such as inflation, retail sales performance, non - farm employment performance, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, inflation surprise index, and the probability of Fed rate cuts [67][70][75][77][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 4.82%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.22%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate strongly in the short - term and rise in steps in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risks such as trade wars and the shutdown of the US government have increased, the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to materialize. Events such as the US government shutdown and the resignation of the French Prime Minister have increased market uncertainty, and geopolitical changes in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The Fed believes that the risk in the employment market has increased and remains vigilant about inflation. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. The market currently expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ratio, position, and inventory [2]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, position, and inventory [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets decreased by 21.792 billion US dollars, with a decrease of 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) changed, and there were also changes in other key indicators such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year - 10 - year), US - Europe yield spread, and US - China yield spread [7][9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related data changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Economic Growth and Employment**: GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and other data showed different trends [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: Data such as existing home sales, new home sales, and new home starts in the US real estate market changed [9]. - **Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditure, industrial production index, and other data changed [9]. - **Trade**: US export, import, and trade balance data changed [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM services PMI, and other economic survey data changed [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, changed [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.50%, the VIX index decreased by 2.04%, the CRB commodity index increased by 1.27%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed [11].

Core Insights - The gold and silver markets are experiencing significant upward momentum, with gold reaching an all-time high of $3,919 per ounce and silver rising nearly 70% year-to-date as of October 1, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Key Drivers for Gold - Gold's price surge is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 95% probability of a rate cut in October [4][5]. - The weakening U.S. dollar and political uncertainties, such as the government shutdown, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and NATO, are further supporting gold's safe-haven demand [6]. Group 2: Key Drivers for Silver - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand, which constitutes 58% of total global demand, and persistent supply bottlenecks [7]. - The gold-silver ratio remains elevated at around 86, indicating potential for silver to narrow the valuation gap with gold as investors seek more affordable alternatives [7]. - China's commitment to reducing carbon emissions is expected to enhance the adoption of solar technologies, increasing silver demand [7]. Group 3: Signs Supporting a Solid Bull Run - The current rally in precious metals is supported by structural drivers, including the Fed's dovish monetary policy and strong central bank demand for gold, with 95% of central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [8]. - The geopolitical landscape and the U.S. government shutdown are reinforcing the role of precious metals as hedges against currency volatility [8]. Group 4: Factors Suggesting Bubble Risks - Despite strong macroeconomic support, the rapid price increases in gold and silver raise concerns about potential market overheating and speculative participation [9][10]. - The gold-silver ratio being above its long-term average suggests that silver's relative outperformance could overshoot, increasing vulnerability to sentiment shifts [9]. Group 5: Conclusion - The current rally is characterized as a solid bull run driven by macro fundamentals, although there is a risk of short-term corrections due to overbought conditions and sensitivity to monetary policy changes [11]. - Monitoring key economic and political events is essential for understanding the trajectory of precious metals [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold: The driving factors have switched, and attention should be paid to the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. The short - term impact of the government shutdown is the biggest driver and risk. If the risk is smoothly passed, it may enter a monthly - level high - range oscillation. The previous judgment that the gold price of $3700 has fully priced in the expected interest rate cut this year remains valid [3]. - Silver: The silver - to - gold ratio continues to decline. The price of silver has risen faster, and the structural opportunity of precious metals is greater than the overall driving force. The upward elasticity of the silver price on a monthly basis will be significantly greater than that of gold. The first target price of Shanghai silver has been achieved, and the second target is 11,590, with the silver - to - gold ratio expected to further repair to below 80 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price**: This week, London gold rose 2.91%, and London silver fell 6.55%. The silver - to - gold ratio dropped from 87 to 83. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.82%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.2% (2 - year 3.63%), and the U.S. dollar index was 98.19 [3]. - **Spread** - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$31.02 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$35.5 per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 converged to -$0.333 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -$0.565 per ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spread**: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was -3.16 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver spot - futures spread was -81 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [16][18]. - **Monthly Spread**: This week, the gold monthly spread was 6.5 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 58 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [22][26]. - **Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost**: The costs of cross - month positive arbitrage for gold and silver in different contract combinations (such as buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai silver 12 - month and selling 6 - month) are calculated, including fixed costs and floating costs [30][31][32][33]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio** - **COMEX Gold**: The inventory increased by 0.48 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 39.95% [36]. - **COMEX Silver**: The inventory increased by 6.3 million ounces to 530.34 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio decreased to 36.9% [38]. - **Domestic Futures**: The gold futures inventory increased by 8397 kilograms, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 1.18 tons to 1158 tons [40]. - **CFTC Non - Commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver increased slightly [42]. - **ETF Positions**: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 30.06 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 156.7 tons [47][49]. - **Silver - to - Gold Ratio**: This week, the silver - to - gold ratio dropped from 87 to 83 [52]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Precious Metal Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was -0.15%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 14.97% [54]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [59]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [63]. - **Non - Farm Employment Performance**: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [71]. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific summary content is extracted from the text, but relevant data charts are presented [73]. - **Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability**: The table shows the implied overnight interest rates, expected interest rate hikes/cuts, and their probabilities at different time points [75].

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed a positive trend on September 22, with both gold and silver futures prices increasing [1] - The main contract for gold (沪金) closed at 840.80 CNY per gram, reflecting a rise of 1.33%, while the main contract for silver (沪银) closed at 10,270.00 CNY per kilogram, with a gain of 3.34% [1] - The opening prices for gold and silver futures were 831.02 CNY per gram and 9,971.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with previous closing prices of 830.56 CNY and 9,971.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - As of September 19, the silver futures warehouse receipts totaled 1,159,443 kilograms, a decrease of 44,080 kilograms compared to the previous trading day, while gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 999 kilograms to 57,429 kilograms [3] - There were no instances of "backwardation" (where spot prices exceed futures prices) reported for any commodity contracts as of September 19 [3] - The basis for gold was calculated at -2.3 with a basis rate of -0.28%, while the basis for silver was -93 with a basis rate of -0.94% [3]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：关注下周FOMC；白银：突破上涨 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：820-840元/克、9700-10300元/千克 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 400 5400 10400 15400 20400 25400 14-03 14-07 14-11 15-03 15-07 15-11 16-03 16-07 16-11 17-03 17-07 17-11 18-03 18-07 18-11 19-03 19-07 19-11 20-03 20-07 20-11 21-03 21-07 21-11 22-03 22-07 22-11 23-03 23-07 23-11 24-03 24-07 24-11 25-03 25-07 吨 SLV:白银ETF:持仓量(吨) 期货收盘价(活跃合约):COMEX银 美元/盎司 1600 2100 2600 3100 3600 410 ...

宽松预期持续巩固 贵金属价格高位震荡 贵金属日报 | 2025-09-10 2025-09-09，美国10年期国债利率收于4.088%，较前一交易日-0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.525%，较前一交易 日变化-0.4BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-09-09，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化314手，空头则是变化257手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为470523 手，较前一交易日变化6.97%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合约上，多头变动2手，空头变动-2手。白银合约上个交易 日总成交量1067357手，较前一交易日变化-24.09%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 市场分析 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为979.68吨，较前一交易日下降-2.29吨。白银ETF持仓为15069.6吨，较前一交 易日-67.78吨。 关税方面，美国和韩国就一项3500亿美元投资基金的细节问题陷入僵局，该基金是两国更广泛贸易协议的一部分。 韩方一直向美方强调，不能接受与日本5500亿美元投资承诺相同的条款；日本经济再生担当相赤泽亮正表示，美 国特朗普政府对日下调汽车关税以及减轻"对等关税"负担的 ...

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline on September 4, with COMEX gold futures falling by 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce [1] - COMEX silver futures decreased by 1.77%, settling at $41.32 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - International precious metals futures experienced a general increase on September 1, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.84% to $3545.8 per ounce [1] - COMEX silver futures saw a significant increase of 2.46%, reaching $41.725 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent increase in gold and silver prices, driven by technical buying and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - On August 28, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $25.1, closing at $3,476.9 per ounce, marking a 0.73% increase and reaching a high of $3,478.7, the highest since August 11 [1] - The U.S. second quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 3.3%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the initial estimate, while the first quarter saw a decline of 0.5% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.43% to close at 97.814, which positively impacted gold prices [1] - Analysts noted that the current gold price is supported by expectations of a rate cut in September, which would lower financing costs and boost demand for gold [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising debt levels are expected to continue driving gold prices upward, as reflected in the current spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which is around 60 basis points, close to the highest level since January 2022 [1]