Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the current surge in industrial metal prices driven by macro sentiment is about to retreat, leading to significant market differentiation, with aluminum, lithium, and iron ore expected to see price declines by 18%, 23%, and 17% respectively by the end of 2026, while copper remains strong due to supply constraints and robust structural demand from sectors like power grids and AI [1][3]. Copper - Copper is viewed as the only metal with a positive outlook, with a price floor around $10,000 per ton due to structural demand from power grid upgrades and AI infrastructure [3][5]. - Supply constraints are highlighted, with accidents at major copper mines revealing challenges in old mines and complex geology, limiting supply growth and supporting copper prices [6]. - Strong demand is driven by strategic investments in power infrastructure, with expectations that over 60% of copper demand growth will come from this sector by 2030 [7]. - A short-term catalyst includes potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper, leading to preemptive stockpiling by traders, tightening supply outside the U.S. [7]. - Despite recent price spikes, the increase is based on future expectations rather than current fundamentals, with predictions of a 500,000-ton surplus in 2025, narrowing to 160,000 tons in 2026 [7]. Aluminum - The aluminum market faces a dual challenge of oversupply and demand risks, with Goldman Sachs recommending a short position [8]. - A supply surge is anticipated due to high prices stimulating new capacity, particularly from Indonesia and India, leading to a projected 1.1 million ton surplus by 2026 [8]. - Demand is threatened by substitution risks, as manufacturers shift from aluminum to cheaper steel in automotive production due to rising aluminum prices [8]. - Price forecasts suggest LME aluminum prices could drop to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 [9]. Lithium - Recent rebounds in lithium prices are viewed as temporary, with Goldman Sachs predicting a return to a surplus by the second half of 2026 [10]. - Short-term tightness is attributed to strong demand for energy storage systems and supply disruptions in China [10]. - By the end of 2026, lithium prices are expected to decline by 23% to around $9,500 per ton [10]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market's fundamentals have deteriorated significantly, with a bleak outlook for 2026 [11]. - A projected increase of 51 million tons in Chinese port inventories is expected by 2026, alongside supply increases from Australia, Brazil, and Guinea [12][13]. - Global seaborne iron ore demand is anticipated to decline by 1%, with Chinese steel production expected to drop by 2% [12]. - Price predictions indicate that iron ore prices could fall to $88 per ton by the end of 2026 [14]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a strategy of "distilling the truth" for investors in 2026, advocating for long positions in copper due to its structural shortage while avoiding or shorting aluminum, lithium, and iron ore, which face significant supply pressures [14].

据悉，国际能源署近期发布的数据显示，即使在高产量的情况下，到2035年全球铜供应缺口仍将达到20%。美国高盛集团日前发布报告预计，自明年开始， 铜价将迈入新的高价交易阶段。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 （央视财经《天下财经》）据多家外媒报道，受到全球铜供应趋紧和对美国潜在关税的担忧等，当地时间3日，英国伦敦金属交易所铜价格一度触及每吨 11540美元的历史高位，国际铜价继续刷新历史新高。 业内人士表示，此轮铜价上涨受到多重因素影响。首先，全球铜供应趋紧推高铜价。受到智利矿山坍塌事故影响，全球矿业与大宗商品巨头嘉能可近日宣布 下调今年铜产能至85万吨到87.5万吨，比2018年减少近四成，同时该公司也下调了2026年铜产量预期。其次，市场普遍预测特朗普政府明年或对铜加征关 税。分析师称，为规避关税，近期出现包括铜在内大量金属运往美国的情况，全球铜库存可能很快降至危急的低位水平。最后，全球对于铜资源需求旺盛， 比如电网和电力基础设施升级带来的需求呈爆发式增长，也是推高铜价的原因之一。 ...

和讯财经 xun.co 和而不同 迅达天下 出现供应短缺。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【高盛：铜价突破11000美元涨势难持久】12月4日，高盛对铜价前景发出预警。该行认为，全球铜供应 足以满足需求，铜价突破每吨11000美元的涨势恐难持久。 高盛分析师称，近期铜价涨势基于未来供应 趋紧预期，而非当前基本面。预计此次突破11000美元的涨势不会持久。 周三，伦敦期铜创下每吨 11540美元的纪录新高。LME仓库铜提货申请量激增，加剧供应担忧。贸易商摩科瑞曾警告美国以外铜 市场受低库存影响大。 高盛虽上调明年上半年铜价预测，称美国关税驱动的供应风险将支撑价格，但 指出可避免美国以外出现"极低"库存。 高盛预计，今年需求比供应少约50万吨，直到2029年全球铜市 场都不会供应短缺。短期内，市场也不会出现供应短缺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 扫码查看原文 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liaoning Chuangshi Molybdenum Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ), with Shenwan Hongyuan as the lead underwriter, indicating a significant milestone for the company and its growth strategy [1]. Company Overview - Established in 2006, Chuangshi Molybdenum specializes in the research, production, processing, and sales of molybdenum series products, including molybdenum iron alloy, molybdenum oxide, ammonium molybdate, high-purity molybdenum trioxide, molybdenum powder, and molybdenum metal [1]. - The company has developed into a large enterprise engaged in the entire line of research, production, and sales of molybdenum products, from rough processing to deep processing, after over a decade of technological accumulation [1]. Market Position - Chuangshi Molybdenum is positioned as a leading enterprise in the domestic molybdenum iron alloy industry, with its main product, molybdenum iron alloy, ranking among the top in domestic sales market share in 2024 [1]. Future Strategy - The company plans to extend its industrial chain by engaging in mineral mining through its subsidiary, Mongolian Molybdenum Metal Company, to ensure stable raw material supply, reduce procurement costs, enhance overall operational efficiency, and improve risk resistance [1]. - Shenwan Hongyuan's support aligns with the national innovation-driven development strategy, providing a solid foundation for Chuangshi Molybdenum's future industrial chain upgrades and the layout of rhenium series products [1].

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices opened lower but closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.3% to 6849.72 points, the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.17% to 23454.09 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.86% to 47882.9 points, despite weak labor market data and concerns over Microsoft's AI product sales [1] - The S&P 500 index is only 71 points away from its high of 6920 points set on October 29, and just 21 points from its closing high of 6870 points [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The recent surge in stock prices is being led not by large tech companies but by lithium carbonate giants such as Albemarle, Eli Lilly, and Boehringer Ingelheim [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.38%, with notable declines in stocks like NIO and XPeng, which dropped over 4%, and Li Auto and New Oriental, which fell over 3% [3] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Copper prices reached a historical high, with LME three-month copper prices rising by 2.59% to $11,435 per ton, and Shanghai copper futures surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton [4] - Tin prices also increased, with LME three-month tin rising by 3.45% to $40,385 per ton, and Shanghai tin futures up by 3.05% to 318,770 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels since May 2022 [6] - Spot silver rose by 0.27% to $58.59 per ounce, while spot gold increased by over 0.50% to $4,226 per ounce, and WTI crude oil rose by over 1% to $59.23 per barrel [7] Group 4: Copper Supply Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts that severe supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches could push copper prices to $12,500 per ton by mid-2026 [8] - LME data shows a significant increase in copper delivery requests, with a surge of 50,575 tons, the largest increase since 2013 [8] - The global copper supply chain is facing vulnerabilities due to factors such as stagnant production growth in Chile, delays in African projects, and export restrictions in Indonesia [9]

文 |姑苏九歌 编辑 |姑苏九歌 12月1日那天，手机上的期货APP差点炸了现货白银价格"噌"地一下冲破每盎司57美元，纽约商品交易所的白银期货更猛，直接摸到57.81美元，这可是实打 实的历史新高。 紧接着伦敦金属交易所的铜价也坐不住了，11210.5美元一吨，同样是历史头一遭。 盯着K线图看了半天，这俩金属最近半年跟开了挂似的，白银从8月底到现在涨了快30%，铜也涨了13%，普通投资者估计都看懵了，不就是白银和铜吗，咋 突然成了市场新宠？ 今天咱就聊聊，这波涨价到底啥逻辑，普通人能不能跟着喝口汤。 价格飙涨的直接推手 伦敦金属交易所的铜价12月1日摸到11210.5美元，美国Comex铜价也涨了1%。 有做期货的老铁跟我说，最近贸易商跟疯了似的把铜库存往美国运，就为了赚那边的溢价。 本来铜矿供应就紧张，这一来一回，市场上的铜更不够用了。 智利那边的铜矿最近不是罢工就是品位下降，挖出来的矿石铜含量比几年前降了快一半，产量自然上不去。 先说白银，这玩意儿最近跟坐火箭似的。 有个在上海做贵金属贸易的朋友跟我吐槽，11月底去上海黄金交易所调货，发现白银库存只剩715.875吨，创了七年新低。 你猜怎么着？10月份 ...

12月3日，长沙族兴新材料股份有限公司（族兴新材）北交所上市将迎来上会，保荐机构是西部证券。 族兴新材致力于铝颜料和微细球形铝粉的应用研究和产品开发，铝颜料产品广泛应用于涂料、印刷油墨、塑胶材料等领域，其下游产品应用于汽车、3C产 品、家用电器、飞机船舶、工程机械、建筑材料等众多制造业领域。 梳理来看，实控人梁晓斌持股比例过半，担任董事长、总经理职务；曾存在多项财务内控不规范；前次挂牌期间曾遭遇纪律处分，涉及股票暂停转让业务办 理和重大信息披露不及时；要融资超2亿元，补流项目已删除，曾两次分红；存在多项超资质经营情形，合规经营需重视；公司及子公司多次遭遇行政处 罚；收入增速放缓，净利波动大，年内增速良好；铝颜料毛利率连降，微细球形铝粉供应商集中度高；经营现金流连续三年为负，经营质量有待提高；研发 费用垫底，研发费用率在同行中垫底；曾因专利侵权被告。 首次挂牌期间遭纪律处分 据短平快解读了解，2007年7月，族兴新材前身族兴有限成立，2011年6月完成股份制改革，2014年7月挂牌新三板，2017年8月终止挂牌，随后又在2024年7 月重新挂牌，目前所属层级为创新层。 实控人持股比例过半。族兴新材控股股东、实际 ...

新华财经上海12月1日电中信建投证券金属和金属新材料首席分析师王介超发布观点称，12月本为锂传 统消费淡季，但下游需求远超预期，季节性因素淡化，锂价预计维持高位。据SMM统计，供给端，11 月碳酸锂及氢氧化锂环比增长3%/增长2%，预计12月增量有限，基于江西锂云母复产的乐观预期下，碳 酸锂仅环比增幅3%，氢氧化锂则预计12月环比下降3%。需求端，订单火热现象将持续至年末，11月磷 酸铁锂及三元材料分别环比增长4.7%/下降0.2%，12月订单饱满，铁锂需求环比持平，三元环比回落 6.7%。 月度平衡角度，11月市场短缺万吨以上，预计12月缺口收窄，但或仍缺口5000吨以上，因此12月保持去 库预期，价格有望维持高位。库存端，碳酸锂库存已降至12万吨以下，其中锂盐厂库存从年中的近6万 吨降至2.4万吨，待明年二季度需求旺季，库存水平难以支撑需求，需求将再度赋予价格弹性。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

本次冲击上市，金钛股份拟募集资金约4.05亿元，扣除发行费用后将投资于2万吨高端航空航天海绵钛 全流程项目。 北京商报讯（记者 马换换 王蔓蕾）根据安排，朝阳金达钛业股份有限公司（以下简称"金钛股份"）北 交所IPO将于12月5日上会迎考。 据了解，金钛股份主要从事海绵钛系列产品研发、生产和销售。公司IPO于2024年12月31日获得受理， 2025年1月22日进入问询阶段。 ...

今天分享的是：和君咨询：福建省上市公司发展报告（2025年） 报告共计：126页 福建省上市公司发展报告（2025年）核心总结 《福建省上市公司发展报告（2025年）》基于"HJ - 18"分析框架，全面剖析了福建省A股上市公司的发展状况，核心内容总结如下： 截至2025年4月30日，福建省共有上市公司228家，其中A股172家，在港交所、纽交所等境外上市56家。A股公司数量占全国3.18%，位列全国第9，但低于 福建GDP全国占比4.31%，且与广东、浙江差距显著，仅为广东的19.52%、浙江的23.8%。上市进程呈纵向加速，但横向仍落后于粤浙，近五年上市加速度 低于A股整体。 区域分布不均，厦门、福州、泉州三地集中了全省81.97%的A股公司，宁德虽仅4家上市公司，但凭借宁德时代位居市值第二。行业上，二产占比突出， 76.2%的上市公司归属二产，电气设备、金属与采矿等行业市值领先，涌现出宁德时代、紫金矿业等龙头企业，但部分优势企业选择境外上市，产业结构未 能完全反映福建经济底蕴。 市值方面，A股总市值36,868亿元，占全国3.78%，头部效应显著，宁德时代一家市值占全省27.65%，头部三强市值占比超五 ...