宏观情绪偏暖， 基本面拐点仍需等待 氧化铝周报 2026/01/10 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 06 库存 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至1月9日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内上涨2.72%至2830元/吨，持仓增加15.9万手至77.7万手。本周初有色板块做多情绪亢奋，带动氧化期货价格大幅上涨，随后逐步 回落。基差方面，山东现货价格报2595元/吨，贴水02合约94元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-128元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周各地区氧化铝现货价格延续下跌趋势，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别下跌0元/吨、下跌5元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌5元/吨、下跌5/吨、 下跌20元/吨。累库趋势持续，多数地区现货价格仍然承压。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库7.6万吨至531.8万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存、氧化 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Short-term high prices suppress demand, but low LME inventories and mid-term demand are still valid. Copper prices are expected to oscillate to digest short-term selling pressure [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Mid-term supply and demand are promising. Short-term inventory accumulation concerns may cause prices to oscillate at high levels, but the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. - Aluminum: The aluminum market is still dominated by macro and capital sentiment. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand and are prone to rise rather than fall [43]. - Nickel: Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. - Zinc: The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation to digest the previous increase and wait for new directional guidance [105]. Summary by Directory Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main contract reached a high of 105,500 and then fell below 100,000. LME copper also showed a similar trend. Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently [7]. - Supply is still at a high level, but demand is weak in the short term due to high prices. However, the market is generally optimistic about the future demand growth space of copper. LME low inventories support copper prices, and short-term spot pressure is limited. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate import TC continues to decline, and the supply of cold materials is abundant. SMM expects that the output of smelters in January will decrease by 14,500 tons month-on-month. The import window for refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of downstream waste copper rods, refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire enterprises have all declined. However, after the short-term decline in copper prices, downstream orders have been released. The current decline in operating rates is mainly due to high prices rather than a substantial lack of demand [7]. - **Spot Side**: Domestic inventories have increased, and it is expected that the market will maintain a pattern of "loose supply and cautious consumption" next week, and inventories will continue to accumulate [16]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, driving the spot price up. The rise in the first half of the week was due to supply concerns and capital enthusiasm, and the second half of the week was in high-level oscillation due to capital selling. The destocking process was interrupted this week [25]. - Supply growth is limited, and demand has not significantly stalled. Although the short-term inventory accumulation concerns are emerging, the mid-term supply and demand situation is good, and the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 115 tons. It is expected that the output in January will decrease compared with December last year, and the growth of lithium mica output is restricted. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from raw materials has increased [26][30]. - **Demand Side**: The output of cathode materials has declined, but the orders in the energy storage field have increased month-on-month. The final business conditions of ternary materials are expected to be favorable to manufacturers, and some iron lithium plants are expected to resume production [26]. - **Spot Side**: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract has deepened. The destocking process has been interrupted, and short-term concerns are emerging [34][35]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - At the beginning of 2026, aluminum prices rose sharply, and the import window was closed. Alumina and aluminum alloy also showed corresponding trends. Overseas speculative funds' enthusiasm for going long increased [40]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually easing, and the price of alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The short-term supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and high prices have suppressed downstream demand. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand [42][43]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: The price of domestic bauxite has slightly decreased, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. The price of imported bauxite has also decreased, and the market is trading lightly [44]. - **Alumina**: It has rebounded with the general trend, and the import window remains open. The domestic alumina plant maintains a high level of operation [47][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window for aluminum ingots remains closed, and the net import in November has declined [56][63]. - **Downstream Consumption**: High aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the operating rates of processing enterprises are differentiated. It is expected that the operating rates will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [66]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [71]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - In the first week of 2026, Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, with a large fluctuation range. The spot market has obvious speculative inventory phenomena. The import window remains closed [75]. - Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. 2. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable this week. In November 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased month-on-month [80]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: In December 2025, the national nickel pig iron output decreased month-on-month. The supply side continued to hold prices firm, and the demand side had some activity but still had differences between upstream and downstream [87]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. In December, the monthly output of electrolytic nickel in China increased month-on-month [92]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The price of nickel salt continued to decline this week. In December, the monthly output of nickel sulfate decreased month-on-month [98]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the market sentiment is strong. The inquiry and transaction are relatively active [103]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Geopolitical risks have driven up the prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals, but the zinc price has risen weakly this round. It has fallen back from a high level in the second half of the week. The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation [104][105]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply of domestic zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee continues to decline. The import window for zinc ore is open, but the transaction is light. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in January will increase month-on-month [112][113]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide are different. Galvanizing has increased slightly, while die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide have decreased. The overall demand is weak in the off-season [114][115]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic inventories have increased, and LME zinc inventories have also increased [116].

Group 1: Core Views on Metals - The company is bullish on copper and aluminum prices, cautiously optimistic on platinum, and neutral to bearish on palladium prices [1] - Copper prices are experiencing upward momentum but are accompanied by short-term adjustments; supply is increasing but at a declining growth rate, while demand is stable despite some concerns [2] - Aluminum prices are also rising, supported by tight supply conditions, with demand growth in the automotive sector remaining stable, although new energy vehicle growth is slowing [3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - For copper, the company suggests focusing on leading upstream enterprises with copper mines and ongoing acquisitions, as copper pricing has not yet peaked [1][2] - In the aluminum sector, attention should be on the electrolytic aluminum segment, while for platinum, the focus should be on domestic platinum recycling leaders [1][3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating on the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The global supply-demand balance for platinum is tight, with strong demand from the automotive sector, but new energy vehicle growth is slowing, leading to a cautious outlook [4] - Palladium prices are under pressure due to weak demand from the gasoline vehicle market, with inventory levels rising, indicating a loosening supply-demand balance [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen significant price increases, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 13.68% rise this month and a 65.05% increase over the past six months [8] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The current economic cycle is characterized by a downturn, with potential benefits for certain commodities as the market seeks new global assets amid U.S. economic challenges [6][7] - The company notes that as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, there may be increased capital outflow from the U.S., which could further enhance the valuation of globally priced commodities like gold and copper [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The oil price is mainly in a downward trend with a loose supply - demand situation. Precious metals are affected by funds and geopolitical situations, and investors can consider participating in breakthroughs or waiting for re - entry opportunities. Various non - ferrous metals, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and financial products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and market emotions [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The current market is in a pattern of supply surplus and inventory accumulation. In 2026Q1, there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. The US - Venezuela situation may lead to an increase in Venezuelan oil production and exports if sanctions are relaxed. The oil price is in a downward trend [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical factors. Venezuelan supply fluctuations are a short - term issue, and the expected supply recovery may increase the surplus concern. Venezuelan heavy - product supply disruptions may support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: The northern spot price has stabilized, and the southern market shows signs of recovery. The cost may rise if the US maintains the blockade on Venezuela, but there is resistance if the raw - material risk is false [23] - **Urea**: The urea market is in a tight supply - demand situation in the short term. The production enterprises are reducing inventory. Although the daily output is expected to increase, the spring agricultural demand will limit the downward space [24] - **Methanol**: There are rumors of MTO device overhauls in East China, causing the methanol price to fall. Overseas device operation rates are low, and future imports are expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to the operation of coastal olefin devices and port inventory [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The US economic data and policy adjustments affected the market. Geopolitical situations and funds are driving price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims data [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, the copper price dropped from a high level. Domestic copper market focuses on fundamentals, and the previous option combination strategy can still be held [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals declined as a whole. The Shanghai aluminum price was boosted by funds but failed to reach a historical high. The short - term trend deviates from fundamentals, and aluminum producers can consider selling for hedging [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the Shanghai aluminum price trend. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost in some areas may increase. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity remains stable, and the market is in surplus. The cash cost is expected to decrease, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment cools down [7] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc price is approaching a two - year high but is under pressure. The high price has a negative impact on consumption, and there is a risk of a phased correction [8] - **Lead**: The tax cost of recycled lead has increased, and there are still soft squeeze - out pressures. The price is facing upward pressure, but there are also concerns about inventory accumulation and price correction [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price adjusted overnight. The market is in a "buy - on - rising" mode. Stainless steel exports are accelerating inventory reduction, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the short term [10] - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin price decreased with reduced positions. The impact of Venezuelan tin exports is limited, and selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be considered [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price is oscillating at a high level. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream has some rigid - demand purchases. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the ore price is strong [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The market funds are flowing out. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to high - level transactions [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price touched 9,000 yuan/ton and then fell. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is weak. The inventory has pressure, and the futures price may oscillate and correct [14] Steel and Related Products - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price oscillates at night. The demand for thread is weak in the off - season, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is recovering. The steel mill profit is improving, and the iron - water output is stabilizing. The steel price may remain strong in the short term [15] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price oscillates. The global shipment is seasonally decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand is weak, but there is rigid - replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to high - level fluctuations [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: - **Coke**: The price continued to rise last night. The production is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is rising. The downstream demand is still resilient, but there is pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise last night. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the production is slightly decreasing. The overall situation is similar to that of coke, with pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates upward. The manganese ore price is rising, and the inventory has a structural problem. The demand is seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price oscillates upward. Affected by policies, the cost is expected to decrease. The demand is still resilient, and the supply is decreasing significantly. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [20] Chemical Products - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: - **Pure Benzene**: The price rose slightly at night. The import is sufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [26] - **Styrene**: The production and sales of enterprises are stable, but the raw - material cost is weak, which suppresses the price rebound [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The enterprises' sales are smooth, and the prices are rising. The downstream follows up well, but the factory's mentality is cautious [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: - **PVC**: Affected by the policy, the price is rising. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large. In 2026, the production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the price center may rise [29] - **Caustic Soda**: The price oscillates strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand from alumina is still there, but the industry is in a loss. The rebound height may be suppressed [29] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA fell at night. The terminal demand is weak, and the polyester cash - flow is poor. The short - term external disturbances are increasing, and the PTA's main driver is the raw material [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic new - device production is approaching, and the overseas device shutdowns are increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure in the long term. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [31] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: - **Short - Fiber**: The enterprise inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak. The price follows the raw material. Band - trading can be considered according to the production and demand rhythm [32] - **Bottle - Chip**: The demand turns weak, and the price follows the raw material. There is new production in the short term, and there are over - capacity problems in the long term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Related Products**: - **Soybean and Bean Meal**: The market expects the US soybean production to remain stable, and the global soybean production may decrease. South American weather is good, and the bean - meal price follows the US soybean price. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The macro - environment affects the prices. The soybean oil performs better than the palm oil. The palm - oil inventory may continue to accumulate, and the overall market is expected to oscillate [37] - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The domestic soybean market is boosted by the macro - environment and policy. The auction shows high premiums and high transaction rates. Attention should be paid to policies and the market [39] - **Rapeseed and Related Products**: The rapeseed and rapeseed - meal inventories of coastal oil mills are zero, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is decreasing. The market expects the China - Canada economic and trade relationship to improve, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [38] - **Corn**: The overall inventory of corn is low, and the number of vehicles at deep - processing enterprises is small. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: The pig futures oscillate, and the spot price is slightly strong. The data on the number of sows is different. There is a risk of secondary fattening, but the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the price may have a secondary bottom in the first half of next year [41] - **Egg**: The near - month egg futures are slightly strong, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. The egg - laying chicken inventory is expected to decrease in the first half of 2026. A long - position strategy for the first - half - year contracts is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price rose significantly yesterday, and the inventory is relatively low. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging, and long positions should be held with caution [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar production in India is fast, while in Thailand it is slow. The domestic Guangxi sugar production is slow, but there is an expected increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar may be limited [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The cold - storage sales are increasing, but the quality is poor, and the high price may affect inventory reduction [45] - **Wood and Pulp**: - **Wood**: The price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Pulp**: The pulp price fell slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the price increase is limited. The port inventory is rising, and the needle - broad price difference is narrowing. A low - buying strategy is recommended [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The futures index contracts showed different trends, and all contracts were at a discount. The global risk assets are not significantly affected, and the stock index is expected to remain strong in the short term [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal. Attention should be paid to the central bank's operations and the yield - curve trend [49]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 4.97% to close at 2939 CNY/ton, driven by market sentiment and capital inflow [2][7]. Market Summary - The main aluminum oxide futures contract opened at 2822 CNY/ton and closed at 2939 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 494,000 lots, an increase of 64,000 lots [2][7]. - In the spot market, a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant purchased 5000 tons of aluminum oxide at a price of 2680 CNY/ton, while transactions among Guangxi traders occurred at 2810 CNY/ton for 3000 tons [2][7]. - In Western Australia, 30,000 tons of aluminum oxide were sold at FOB 310 USD/ton, reflecting a 5 USD/ton increase compared to the previous period [2][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by simultaneous maintenance and resumption of production, with no significant reduction in supply or proactive cuts observed. The market sentiment and capital inflow have led to an expansion of smelting profits, indicating a low probability of short-term production cuts [2][8]. - The overall supply remains excessive, with social inventories continuing to rise and the import window open, suggesting persistent long-term pressure on spot prices [2][8]. - Regarding bauxite supply, the end of the rainy season in Guinea has led to a noticeable increase in shipment volumes, and previously halted mines are resuming operations, ensuring long-term supply stability. The first-quarter pricing for long-term contracts has been adjusted downward, with potential for further minor reductions, indicating limited cost support [2][8].

Group 1 - The copper-aluminum price ratio reached 4.49 on December 29, 2025, marking a new high since 2003, with potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors [2][3] - In the wire and cable industry, aluminum poses a significant substitution threat to copper due to its price advantage and favorable physical properties [2] - New standards related to aluminum heat exchangers are being developed, indicating a shift towards aluminum in HVAC applications [2] Group 2 - There are disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply, with limited short-term capacity expansion due to issues like power supply agreements and infrastructure constraints [3] - A production line in Iceland faced a temporary shutdown, reducing its capacity significantly, and another facility in Mozambique is expected to enter maintenance due to unresolved power supply agreements [3] - The aluminum consumption structure is shifting, with increased demand from transportation and power sectors, and new growth points emerging from data centers and energy storage [4] Group 3 - Domestic and international policy expectations are solidifying the bottom for alumina prices, with the Chinese government emphasizing management and optimization in resource-intensive industries [5] - China's reliance on imported bauxite is increasing, with Guinea being the largest supplier, and potential market interventions could impact alumina pricing [5] - The forecast for domestic aluminum consumption in 2026 is 57.37 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of over 1.7% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - Companies to watch include Zhongfu Industrial, Yun Aluminum, and Shenhuo, which are expected to benefit from expanding aluminum profits [6] - China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum are highlighted for their potential rebound in alumina prices and high dividend expectations [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum is a good long - position allocation variety under the support of macro and fundamental prospects, and institutions are highly consistent in bullish on Shanghai Aluminum in 2026, with the target price pointed to the 25,000 yuan mark, and the peak may be higher this year [1][2][3] - Short - term capital boosts Shanghai Aluminum to hit historical highs, which deviates from the fundamentals. Speculative participation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance in 2025 - 2026 - In 2025, precious metals led by gold had the largest annual market since 1979. At the end of the year, silver, platinum, etc. soared, and copper in non - ferrous metals rose over 35%, tin over 40%, while aluminum only rose 15% [1] - At the beginning of 2026, due to the US military action against Venezuela, precious metals strengthened again, and funds were allocated to aluminum, pushing Shanghai Aluminum to 24,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Policy Environment - In 2026, the commodity rise is driven by macro - easing and tight supply - demand expectations. The Fed may cut interest rates, and a dovish Fed chairman is likely to be appointed, maintaining the global easing trend [2] - In China, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", there are strong policy expectations. The government has issued policies on equipment renewal, consumer goods replacement, and grid construction, providing support for aluminum's traditional application scenarios [2] 3.3 Aluminum Market Supply and Demand - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase due to policy support, and the consumption scenarios are expanding. However, the supply is restricted, with domestic production capacity approaching the ceiling and overseas production capacity limited by electricity. There is a risk of over 500,000 tons of production suspension at a Mozambique aluminum plant in Q1, and the aluminum market is expected to be in short supply in 2026 with low inventory becoming the norm [2] 3.4 Investment Suggestions and Risks - Shanghai Aluminum's valuation is rising, but the fundamental reality shows weakness, and there is a risk of industrial negative feedback. Short - term speculation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective as the profit per ton of aluminum has soared to around 8,000 yuan [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day, the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous metals has become steeper, with aluminum and copper leading the gains, and the aluminum price has rapidly approached the historical peak. The current spot market for aluminum is weak, but it may have reached the worst state, and the basis spread is expected to bottom out [1]. - In the mid - 2026 supply - demand situation with supply constraints, diversified demand, tight balance, and low inventory - consumption ratio, the market environment can support the upward movement of the aluminum price center. The systematic capital linkage allocation in the sector also helps increase price elasticity, and this bull - market capital layout is earlier and faster. If the equity market starts the spring rally in the first quarter, the upward space of aluminum metal is still worth looking forward to [1]. - The importance of position management is increasing as the price volatility of aluminum at high levels is likely to expand. It is necessary to use options and other tools for risk hedging while keeping a futures bottom - position [1]. - Future risk points for a potential peak include the performance of overseas Al - related equity assets and downstream processing profit indicators [1]. Group 3: Option - related Suggestions - For investors with a long - position in futures, it is recommended to consider buying put options with a moderate period and moderate out - of - the - money degree to protect against the callback risk of long positions, or replace long futures positions with in - the - money call options to control the callback risk [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by favorable domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, despite some short-term demand weakness and supply constraints [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Macro Factors - Recent domestic policies, including the 2026 national subsidy plan and the promotion of high-quality electricity grid development, are expected to boost aluminum demand [1]. - The automotive sector is seeing a rebound in orders and production due to new model launches and upcoming replacement subsidy policies, which supports aluminum demand [4]. Group 2: International Macro Factors - The divergence in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicates ongoing market speculation regarding interest rate changes, which may influence commodity prices, including aluminum [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, have raised concerns about global trade and supply chain stability, potentially impacting aluminum supply [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper-aluminum ratio has significantly exceeded historical norms, leading to increased speculation in the aluminum market as investors anticipate a correction [3]. - Despite a seasonal decline in demand, the automotive sector and the rapid expansion of energy storage systems are expected to provide a counterbalance to the overall weakness in aluminum consumption [4][5]. - Current aluminum production capacity is constrained, limiting supply growth, while recent disruptions in overseas supply have further tightened the market [4][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While short-term demand may be weak, the long-term outlook for aluminum remains positive due to stable growth in transportation and energy storage sectors, as well as potential shifts in material usage from copper to aluminum [5][6]. - The financial attributes of aluminum are currently driving prices more than its commodity attributes, with significant capital inflow into the aluminum market post-holiday [5].