新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 莫桑比克电解铝确定减产 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21630元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-100元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-60元/吨；中原A00铝价21560元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-70元/吨至-170元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21520元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-55元/吨至-210元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-16日沪铝主力合约开于21955元/吨，收于21845元/吨，较上一交易日变化-45元/吨，最 高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21655元/吨。全天交易日成交241924手，全天交易日持仓288833手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化1.2万吨，仓单库存77188 吨，较上一交易日变化-625吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-16SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2765元/吨，山东价格录得2690元/吨，河南价格录得 2790元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in alumina futures prices, which have dropped below 2500 yuan/ton, raise questions about potential turning points in the market as prices rebounded last Friday [1]. Group 1: Production and Supply - In November, domestic bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.6% month-on-month and a 5.3% year-on-year decline; cumulative production from January to November reached 55.213 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total production of metallurgical-grade alumina in November was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 1.4% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 81.897 million tons, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year [2]. - As of last Thursday, the total capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina remained at 11.032 million tons/year, with operational capacity at 8.7832 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate slightly increased by 0.15 percentage points to 79.62% [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - The alumina price index reported 2804.9 yuan/ton last Thursday, a decrease of 16.48 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a premium of 300 yuan/ton over the futures settlement price [3]. - Domestic alumina total inventory reached 5.061 million tons, continuing to rise, while electrolytic aluminum plants held 3.516 million tons of alumina inventory, indicating relatively sufficient raw material reserves [2]. Group 3: Import and Inventory Trends - In October, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a month-on-month decrease of 13.3% but a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; cumulative imports from January to October reached 170.96 million tons, up 30% year-on-year, with Guinea accounting for 74% of imports [1]. - As of last weekend, domestic bauxite port inventory was 26.4354 million tons, a significant decrease of 1.475 million tons from the previous week [1].

铝产业链年报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 向阳而行 不忘风雨 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪 证 监 许 可 【2015】 84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 | 图表 | 1 氧化铝期货价格 7 | | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 氧化铝现货升贴水 7 | | 图表 | 3 氧化铝月差 7 | | 图表 | 4 国内外电解铝期货价格 7 | | 图表 | 5 沪伦铝比 8 | | 图表 | 6 沪铝月差 8 | | 图表 | 升贴水 7 LME 8 | | 图表 | 8 国内铝现货升贴水 8 | | 图表 | 9 铸造铝期货价格 8 | | 图表 | 10 铸造铝现货价格 8 | | 图表 | 11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the medium - term trend of aluminum prices. The pricing logic for aluminum in Q4 2024 will continue in 2026. In 2026, under different scenarios, the aluminum market is expected to face shortages, and although there will be inventory accumulation in Q1, the pressure is relatively controllable [3]. - The alumina market needs significant supply - side clearing and supply - demand re - balancing to reverse the situation. The current supply is in excess and inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Price and Market Outlook**: The medium - term view is that aluminum prices will trend upwards. In 2026, under the baseline scenario (production and demand growth rates of 1.7% and 2.1% respectively, net imports of 2.4 million tons), the annual shortage is expected to be about 124,000 tons; under the optimistic scenario (production and demand growth rates of 1.7% and 2.6% respectively, net imports of 2.5 million tons), the annual shortage is expected to be about 258,000 tons. In Q1 2026, even if there is a price dip, it may be a good buying opportunity. In the short term, due to increased macro - disturbances at the end of the year, the Shanghai aluminum price has fallen back from the 22,000 mark [3]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 14,000 tons to 579,000 tons this week. It is expected to decline slightly above the level at the end of last year by the end of the year. The downstream demand is showing signs of recovery, with the spot basis, downstream start - up rates, and downstream profits all improving [3]. Alumina - **Price and Market Situation**: The alumina price once fell below the 2,500 mark this week, and the main contract dropped to a minimum of 2,437 yuan/ton. The market is facing continuous over - supply and inventory accumulation, and the expected increase in ore supply next year may further drag down the price. However, due to the accumulation of short positions, trading factors are causing more disturbances [4]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase this week, with an increase of 57,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory in the alumina plants decreased, while that in the electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the inventory at stations/on - the - way increased significantly [44]. Trading - end - **Price Spreads**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina strengthened this week. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from - 80 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 195 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from 187 yuan/ton to 227 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from 252 yuan/ton to 322 yuan/ton [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract increased slightly, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of December 12, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 1.4746 million tons compared to last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of November, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 (ALD) caliber also showed a downward trend. In November, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises decreased by 370,000 tons month - on - month [24][30]. - **Alumina**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase. As of December 11, the national alumina inventory was 4.585 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons compared to last week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 14,000 tons to 579,000 tons as of December 11, continuing the de - stocking trend this week [52]. - **Processed Materials**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods decreased this week. As of November, the finished product inventory ratio and raw material inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum sheets and foils increased slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio remained flat [58][61]. Production - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply showed a differentiated situation. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In terms of different provinces, the bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends in the steel - union and SMM calibers [66][67]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 12, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 96.1 million tons, a weekly decrease of 400,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.859 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week, and the supply - side over - supply situation remained unchanged [71]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit recovery. As of December 11, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum in the steel - union caliber was 853,600 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to last week. As consumption entered the off - season, the proportion of aluminum water decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to increase month - on - month [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum sheets and foils all decreased slightly, with decreases of 900 tons, 17,000 tons, and 21,000 tons respectively. The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.1%, and the market performance was stable, generally in line with the seasonality [77][78]. Profit - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the steel - union caliber was 86.2 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit was under pressure. Among different provinces, the alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better due to the relatively firm cost side [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [100]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 10 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [101]. Consumption - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased. In October 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed a differentiated situation [110][112][115]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing remained at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at high levels. The shortage of scrap aluminum supply persists, providing some support for prices, but the weakening demand limits further price increases. In the short term, prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation range [6]. - From the micro - fundamental perspective, as of December 14, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.07 million tons to 13.12 million tons compared to the previous week, with high - level visible inventory. The automotive market demand is under pressure, with the retail volume of the national passenger car market from December 1 - 7 showing a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 8% [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation data are presented graphically, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The calculation of the inter - period spread cost of casting aluminum alloy involves various fees such as transaction fees, storage fees, and capital costs. For the AD2601 - AD2602 spread on December 12, 2025, the fixed cost is 8.82 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 90.89 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 100 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot - futures arbitrage cost calculation of casting aluminum alloy takes into account factors such as spot price, storage fees, capital costs, and trading fees. Based on the current situation, the spot price is 21,200 yuan/ton, and the calculated warehouse receipt cost is 22,140.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with relatively fast year - on - year growth [16][20]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has widened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum is flat, while the monthly start - up rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy has its own distribution characteristics by region. Currently, the ADC12 cost is mainly composed of scrap aluminum and is estimated to be in a loss state [30][40][47]. - The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy is currently closed [52][57]. - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided, along with their respective proportion distribution by region [60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption market [66].

宏观事件落地，铝价调整 铝周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止11月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4422.5万吨；11月电解铝产量环比减少2.8%%，同比增长1.5%。 11月国内 铝水比例环比下降0.5%。预计12月铝水比例小幅下降。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，本周四铝锭库存录得57.9万吨，较上周四下降1.4万吨。保税区库存录得6.4万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。本周 四铝棒库存合计12.9万吨，较上周四下降0.6万吨。LME全球铝库存录得51.9万吨，较上周减少0.6万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走强，LME市 场Cash/3M贴水扩大。 ◆ 进出口：2025年10月中国原铝进口量为24.8万吨，环比增加1.8%，同比增加42.2%。1-10月累计进口量为2 ...

Group 1 - The company, Jiaozuo Wanfang, announced that its 10th eighth board meeting will be held on December 12, 2025, to discuss related party transactions with Zhejiang Jinliantong International Trade Co., Ltd. [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition is entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100.0% [1] - As of the report date, Jiaozuo Wanfang has a market capitalization of 11.7 billion yuan [1]

新疆众和公告称，2025年12月12日，公司第十届董事会2025年第十一次临时会议通过相关议案，拟开展 2026年度套期保值及远期外汇业务，尚需股东会审议。套期保值业务涉及氧化铝、铝，预计任一交易日 持有的最高合约价值不超150.42亿元，保证金占用最高额度不超18.05亿元；远期外汇业务涉及美元、欧 元等，预计未来12个月内任一交易日持有的最高合约价值不超7亿美元、2000万欧元或其他等值外币。 公司将采取系列风控措施，并按会计准则进行会计处理。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-12 社会库存回落现货贴水修复 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21890元/吨，较上一交易日变化120元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-60元/吨， 较上一交易日变化30元/吨；中原A00铝价21820元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化70元/吨至-130元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录21780元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化25元/吨至-165元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-11日沪铝主力合约开于21990元/吨，收于21970元/吨，较上一交易日变化50元/吨，最 高价达22110元/吨，最低价达到21865元/吨。全天交易日成交189881手，全天交易日持仓294576手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-11，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.4万吨，较上一期变化-1.1万吨，仓单库存69410 吨，较上一交易日变化823吨，LME铝库存518750吨，较上一交易日变化-2050吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-11SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2725元/吨，河南价格录得 2815元/吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant price divergence between alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices dropping sharply while electrolytic aluminum prices are on the rise, creating a "ice and fire" scenario in the market [1][8][13]. Price Trends - As of December 10, the main contract for alumina futures fell below 2500 yuan/ton, marking a significant decline from last year's peak of 5500 yuan/ton, representing a "halving" in price [1][4]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum has increased, with the average price reaching 22,100 yuan/ton as of December 5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.60% [6][10]. Cost Dynamics - The production cost for electrolytic aluminum is heavily influenced by alumina prices, which have decreased by over 3000 yuan/ton compared to last year, thus improving profit margins for electrolytic aluminum producers [4][5]. - The production of 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum requires 1.92 tons of alumina, 0.46 tons of anode, and 13,500 kWh of electricity, which together account for 90% of the production cost [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of alumina is expected to remain high, with a projected production of 74.46 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, while electrolytic aluminum production is only expected to grow by 2% [9][10]. - The disparity in supply growth between alumina and electrolytic aluminum is leading to a continued decline in alumina prices, while electrolytic aluminum prices are supported by tight supply conditions and strong demand [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the price divergence between alumina and electrolytic aluminum will continue, with alumina prices likely to remain under pressure due to oversupply, while electrolytic aluminum prices may see further increases driven by demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [13][14]. - The expected supply surplus for alumina could exceed 10 million tons, while the electrolytic aluminum market may face tighter conditions in certain months due to production constraints [13][14].