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焦作万方:有限合伙企业曼联(杭州)持股比例升至5.53%
Core Viewpoint - The announcement indicates that Manchester United (Hangzhou) Enterprise Management Partnership (Limited Partnership) has increased its stake in Jiaozuo Wanfang by acquiring 393 million shares, representing 5.53% of the total share capital post-issuance, which positions Hangzhou Manchester as a significant shareholder in the company [1] Company Summary - The increase in shareholding by Hangzhou Manchester is expected to enhance Jiaozuo Wanfang's asset scale and sustainable profitability [1] - The transaction does not involve any cash payment or funding sources [1] - There are no plans for further increases or decreases in shareholding by Hangzhou Manchester within the next 12 months [1] Industry Summary - The move is anticipated to further optimize the business layout within the aluminum industry [1]
焦作万方:8月22日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-22 23:19
Group 1 - The company, Jiaozuo Wanfang, announced that its 10th second board meeting will be held on August 22, 2025, using both in-person and communication methods [1] - The meeting will review the proposal regarding the convening of a temporary shareholders' meeting to discuss matters related to this transaction [1] - For the year 2024, the company's revenue composition is entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100.0% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, Jiaozuo Wanfang has a market capitalization of 11 billion yuan [1]
铝类市场周报:供给持稳需求暂弱,铝类或将有所承压-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may experience a situation of double - growth in supply and demand, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. The electrolytic aluminum market may see a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The overall aluminum market may face some pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of cast aluminum first declined and then rose, with a weekly change of +0.05%, closing at 20,175 yuan/ton. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.67%, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton. The alumina contract oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 2.09%, closing at 3,138 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina may face a situation of double - growth in supply and demand. Electrolytic aluminum may see stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from August 15; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,593 US dollars/ton, down 1.18% from August 15. The alumina futures price was 3,127 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from August 15; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,175 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from August 15 [8][12]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 22, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.11 from August 15. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from August 15; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,060 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from August 15 [9][20]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 575,286 lots, down 4.33% from August 15; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 10,019 lots from August 15 [15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, 2025, the alumina spot price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang regions decreased slightly. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,450 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from August 15. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from August 15, and the spot premium was 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 0.03% from August 14; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,653 tons, up 6.2% from the previous week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 540,000 tons, up 2.66% from August 14 [32]. - **Raw Material Import and Inventory**: As of the latest data, the nine - port inventory of domestic bauxite was 27.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons. In July 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22% [35]. - **Waste Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed waste aluminum in Shandong region was 15,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. In July 2025, the import volume of waste aluminum and scrap was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [41]. - **Alumina**: In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; the cumulative import from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In July 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The output was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; the cumulative output from January to July was 10.628 million tons. The import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In July 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64][67]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price is expected to experience slight oscillatory pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [72].
新能源及有色金属日报:海外氧化铝价格同步出现松动-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:18
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, although the supply has a slight increase with limited impact and the consumption is in the seasonal off - peak but shows signs of improvement, the long - term supply is restricted and the consumption peak season can be expected [6] - For alumina, the spot supply is becoming looser, the risk of cornering the market is reduced, and the ore price is difficult to rise due to the expected surplus and high inventory. The supply is increasing, and the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue [6][7] - For aluminum alloy, the price spread and smelting profit show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can be concerned [8] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,490 yuan/ton, the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1] - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,550 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [1] 2. Aluminum Futures - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,580 yuan/ton, closed at 20,545 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,187 lots, and the open interest was 234,699 lots [2] 3. Aluminum Inventory - As of August 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, with a change of 1.9 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 65,467 tons, with a change of - 25 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] 4. Alumina Spot Price - On August 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,210 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] 5. Alumina Futures - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,178 yuan/ton, closed at 3,120 yuan/ton, with a change of - 79 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 2.47%. The highest price was 3,187 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273,457 lots, and the open interest was 192,727 lots [2] 6. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 19, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] 7. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4] 8. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [5] 9. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The supply has a slight increase with limited impact. Consumption is in the off - peak season but shows improvement. The aluminum rod output increases and the inventory decreases. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots is increasing, the consumption is changing from the off - peak to the peak season, and the downward space of aluminum price is limited [6] - **Alumina**: In East Australia, 30,000 tons were traded at FOB 369 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from a week ago. The warrant inventory increases rapidly, reducing the risk of cornering the market. The ore price is difficult to rise due to the expected surplus and high inventory. The smelting profit exists, and the supply is increasing [6] - **Aluminum alloy**: The price spread of AD2511 - AL2511 contract is - 405 yuan/ton. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can be concerned [8] 10. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - **Arbitrage**: Shanghai aluminum positive spread arbitrage, long AD11 and short AL11 [9]
天山铝业:实际控制人曾超懿解除质押718.8万股
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-19 08:24
Group 1 - The core revenue composition of Tianshan Aluminum for the year 2024 is 100% from the aluminum industry [1] Group 2 - Tianshan Aluminum announced on August 19 that its shareholder and actual controller, Zeng Chaoyi, has released the pledge on 7.188 million shares [3] - As of the announcement date, Shihezi Jinlong Energy Industry Chain Co., Ltd. has pledged a total of 370 million shares, accounting for 40.54% of its holdings [3] - Shihezi Jinhui Energy Investment Co., Ltd. has pledged approximately 173 million shares, accounting for 50% of its holdings [3] - Zeng Chaoyi has pledged approximately 143 million shares, accounting for 36.39% of his holdings [3] - Zeng Chaolin has pledged approximately 137 million shares, accounting for 45.42% of his holdings [3]
大越期货沪铝早报-20250819
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing, showing a bullish sign. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral, with carbon neutrality curbing capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market and volatile macro sentiment. The basis is neutral with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing. In the long - term, carbon neutrality is positive for aluminum prices, but the US tariff expansion creates a mixed situation and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Price**: Yesterday's Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's price was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [20][22].
有色金属基础周报:美联储降息预期起伏,宏观总体偏好有色金属整体偏强震荡-20250818
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].
铝行业周报:下游铝加工开工率回升,静待库存拐点-20250817
Guohai Securities· 2025-08-17 13:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing sector is witnessing a recovery in operating rates, with expectations for inventory to reach a turning point. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is anticipated to boost demand [11]. - The macroeconomic environment is leaning towards favorable conditions, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. [6]. - The report highlights that the current low inventory levels and reduced aluminum ingot supply provide support for aluminum prices [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of August 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,603.0 per ton, down $12.0 from the previous week but up $276.0 year-on-year [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,770.0 yuan per ton, up 85.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,755.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20,680.0 yuan per ton, up 50.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,750.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In July 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.721 million tons, an increase of 112,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [55]. - The production of alumina in July 2025 was 7.650 million tons, up 392,000 tons month-on-month and 808,000 tons year-on-year [55]. 3. Inventory - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The inventory of aluminum rods was 138,500 tons, down 4,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continuous decline due to reduced production by manufacturers [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5].
废铝偏紧给予支撑,警惕税返退坡风险
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 09:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the foundry aluminum alloy industry is "Bullish" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scarcity of scrap aluminum resources and the expected increase in demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials provide strong support for the price of ADC12. Considering the expected production cuts due to policies and the strong market sentiment for long - positions, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. Additionally, an arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 when the spread is below - 500 can be considered [2][15][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival is Scarce, Beware of the Risk of Tax Rebate Decline - Last week (08/11 - 08/15), the price of recycled cast aluminum alloy ingots fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.3% to 20,165 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 19,900 yuan/ton. The cost side was strongly supported, and the profit margin widened [12] - The prices of different scrap aluminum varieties showed mixed trends this week. The factors affecting the fundamentals of scrap aluminum include the cooling of the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the high inflation data in the US, the slowdown of order - taking by spot - futures traders and traditional traders, and the reduction or suspension of production by some enterprises, which suppresses the upward movement of scrap aluminum prices [13] - The raw material inventory in national alloy ingot factories and the social inventory of scrap aluminum have both increased marginally. However, due to the high price of scrap aluminum, aluminum enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The arrival of scrap aluminum has decreased, and it is expected that the inventory at the scrap aluminum end will not continue to accumulate. The demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase significantly, which may widen the procurement price difference between East and South China [14][15] - The 2025 (770) document requires the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion. The cancellation of tax rebates and the investigation of reverse - invoicing will significantly increase enterprise production costs, and there may be a transfer of production capacity in tax - preferential areas. It is expected that the spot supply of aluminum alloy will tighten significantly, which is negative for scrap aluminum prices [16] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries jointly issued a notice to rectify illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion, including the full - scale inspection and abolition of relevant policies, the immediate suspension of illegal clauses in existing projects, and the prohibition of various illegal operations. For some specific violations, a transition period can be set, with the latest exit deadline of August 2027 [21] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products. The expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18 [21] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrival and Slight Inventory Accumulation - The report provides multiple data charts on scrap aluminum, including monthly production, monthly shipments, weekly procurement volume of traders, regional production, inventory of traders and foundry aluminum alloy factories, price trends, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum, reflecting the current situation of tight arrival and slight inventory accumulation of scrap aluminum [23][25][27] 3.2 ADC12: Strong Price and High Social Inventory - The report presents data on the closing price of the main contract of foundry aluminum alloy, term structure, basis, sales price, price difference with A00 aluminum, production and operation rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, social and in - factory inventory, and production and import profits, indicating that the price of ADC12 is strong and the social inventory is high [35][38][40] 3.3 Downstream: Weakening Start - up of Semi - Steel Tires and the Automobile Industry Still in the Off - season - The report uses data on the monthly consumption of recycled cast aluminum, automobile production (including new energy and fuel vehicles), motorcycle production, inventory warning index, and start - up rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires to show that the start - up of semi - steel tires is weakening and the automobile industry is still in the off - season [59][60][62]
进退两难,维持区间震荡
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:04
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased; the reported meeting between Trump and Putin is expected to have a significant short - term impact on the market; China's July CPI data beat expectations, and under the influence of "anti - involution" and positive policy expectations, the probability of macro funds entering the market to go long has increased [6]. - After the Fed's July FOMC meeting and China's mid - year economic meeting, the short - term macro environment is in a window period, but the Trump - Putin meeting may increase market volatility. Currently, the Shanghai aluminum industry is in the off - season, with a slightly wider spot discount, general overall trading, and still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The 21,000 level is an important resistance level. Considering that social inventory is still relatively low compared to the same period, and the sentiment in China's capital market remains strong under expectation guidance, it has a strong driving effect on the Shanghai aluminum price. Therefore, the market is likely to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 [8]. Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In June, the in - production capacity increased by 3.65 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly. The weekly domestic arrival volume of ore increased, but the shipment volume from Guinea decreased significantly. In June 2025, China's net alumina exports were 68,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease, with 15 consecutive months of net exports, and the export profit margin slightly narrowed [9]. - In July 2025, China's total alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.65% and a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.37% and a month - on - month increase of 1.5 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.7493 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cumulative output this year was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In July 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 83.75%, at a moderately high level in history, returning to the same level as last year, with a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. There is still significant upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Cost - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $77 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the CIF average price of Australian bauxite remained unchanged at $69 per ton [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,640 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.27% [30]. Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,847.8 yuan per ton, with a profit of 418 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The alumina export profit was 73 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 26 yuan per ton [9][33][36]. Inventory - As of August 7, the port inventory of alumina was 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [39]. Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply situation. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In July 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68% and a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 98.40, with a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the cumulative output this year was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24][48]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. It is at a historically high level, and there is limited upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's net electrolytic aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58,600 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 18,300 tons; the cumulative net imports from January to June were 1.1635 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,700 tons. The import channel for electrolytic aluminum has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - As of August 7, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,275 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 320 yuan per ton. The scrap - to - primary aluminum price differential was 1,545 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 90 yuan per ton [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons; the cumulative imports from January to June were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88%. The monthly import volume is currently increasing year - on - year but has declined significantly month - on - month and is approaching the level of the same period in 2024. Future imports may still be affected by tariff policies [61]. Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.8737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the cumulative output this year was 32.7679 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the cumulative output this year was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. Cost - The domestic spot price of alumina was relatively stable, while the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The latest price of pre - baked anodes was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. Profit - The recent smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum was 16,899 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan per ton. Based on cost calculations and the spot aluminum price, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum was 3,850 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 122 yuan per ton [79]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum was 1,533 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week widening of 156 yuan per ton [82]. Inventory - As of August 7, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 566,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons, with no change during the week. The overall inventory increased week - on - week, but the rate of increase slowed significantly during the week, indicating off - season characteristics in the downstream [85]. - In July 2025, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 545,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons. The absolute value is currently at a historically low level, returning to the level of the same period in 2023 [88]. - As of August 7, the domestic inventory of aluminum rods was 138,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons and a decrease of 56,000 tons during the week. The current inventory of aluminum rods remains relatively high compared to the same period in history [91]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China ranged from 20,460 to 20,710 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan per ton. The spot price was quoted against the August contract. The spot price increased with the market, the spot discount widened, and the off - season deepened. The downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was general [94].