Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum resource sector, indicating a positive outlook due to supply disruptions in bauxite and alumina prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Guinean government's revocation of multiple bauxite mining rights may lead to a domestic bauxite shortage, potentially supporting bauxite and alumina prices [6][7]. - The report suggests that the acquisition of overseas potassium fertilizer projects by Salt Lake Co. could enhance its global presence and production capacity [6][7]. - The report expresses optimism for the performance of small metals such as tin, cobalt, and antimony in the medium to long term [6][7]. Industry Overview Aluminum Industry - The report notes that as of May 2025, there are 126 listed companies in the aluminum sector with a total market capitalization of approximately 288.51 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that Guinea accounts for 26% of global bauxite reserves and 29% of global production, with China importing 110 million tons of Guinean bauxite in 2024, representing 69.4% of total imports [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a shift from surplus to shortage in domestic bauxite supply, which could lead to price support for bauxite and alumina [6][7]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The report discusses Salt Lake Co.'s intention to invest around 300 million USD in acquiring shares of Highland Resources, positioning it as a major stakeholder and enhancing its control over key potassium projects [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and cobalt, such as Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum [6][7].

评级：推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 2025年05月18日 有色金属 铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报：去库表现强势，关注需求及出口走向（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-04-21 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓解，铝价压制减弱，关注需求变化（推荐）*有色 金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-04-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.7% | 1.3% | -0.0% | | 沪深300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 封帆 联系人 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|新能源&有色专题 2025-05-07 废铝供应紧张将持续成为合金厂的考验 报告摘要 1、根据上海有色数据统计，2024 年中国废铝回收总量 1106 万吨，同比增长 8.1%， 其中旧废铝供给增速 11.6%，新废铝供给增速 1.6%。测算 2026 和 2027 年废铝供应增 速将会下滑至 1.9%和 4.5%。 2、中国原铝年产量 4350 万吨左右，废铝按照回收率大概测算后，占铝总供应量的 18.5%，即若要满足消费 1%的增长，废铝供应增速需达到至少 5.5%，而新废铝供应由 于原铝供给受限导致增量寥寥，预计 2025 年新废铝供给增量 1%，那么就需要旧废铝 给予更高的增速达到 7.5%以上。因此推算下来，未来两年废铝的供应紧张的局面难以 缓解。 3、废铝价格居高不下，精废价差持续走低，此外工业硅价格大幅度回落，使得即使使 用原铝生产添加 11%的工业硅，其生产性价比也在逐渐体现，若废铝价格持续居高不 下，后期存在原铝替代废铝的可能 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月07日 隔夜伦铜领涨至9550美元以上,沪铜与美铜涨势承压在前期反弹高点。中美共同披露将在瑞士展开 高层经贸接触。市场关注国内铜社库与上期所库存的快速流出,近月合约间Back悟废在300元以上 继续走扩。昨日国内现铜78190元,上海铜升水扩至285元,且沪粤相对升水强弱转向。目前支持消 费的依然是国内电网板块,空调以外的白电排产开始走弱,同时东盟国家在90天对等关税豁免期内 支撑生产惯性。反弹空配2507合约或近月合约间延续正套。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。 五一期间铝锭铝棒社会阵存分别增加2.2万吨和1.6万吨略高于去年，库存总量 仍处于近年同期最低水平。较高的行业利润继续扩大需要更强的铁口预期，但贸易战阴霾下下游面 临季节性转淡和贸易摩擦的压制难乐观。沪铝在上方块口20000-20300元区域具备较强阻力,这高 考虑卖保适当参与。 【氧化铝】 近期集中检修压产产能超过600万吨,产量阶段性降低,行业库存特降,不过一旦利润修复产能依然 会大规模复产,且山东和河北有新产能将逐渐有成品产出。长期过刺前景以及接近30万吨的仓单阵 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 铜铝有所回暖，警惕假期风险 ——铜铝周报2025.04.28 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内重要会议释放政策利多信号，美国关税利空减弱， | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 市场避险情绪有所降温，关注谈判情况。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位79000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月24日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至18.17万吨，连续八周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：特朗普关税言论反复摇摆，市场情绪有所缓和，铜价 | 75000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 向 ...

铝策略月报 2025 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 氧化铝&电解铝：宏微转弱，稍有承压 p 4 1.1期货价格：4月氧化铝期货震荡走弱，月度跌幅3.1%；沪铝震荡偏弱，月度跌幅2.2% 资料来源：iFind，Wind，光大期货研究所 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据SMM，预计4月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能降至8288万吨，产量717万吨，环比下滑5%，同比增长7.4%；山东、山西、河南检 | | | 修规模扩大，广西贵州维持边际放产，基数效应下开工延续下滑；4月国内电解铝运行产能增至4390万吨，产量357万吨，环比下滑3.2%， | | | 同比增长1.6%，铝水比小幅回落至73%。四川、广西、青海等地复产开启。 | | | 2.需求：旺季临近尾声，线缆滞后发力而其他板块逐渐走弱。4月铝下游加工企业平均开工率62.4%，环比3月增长0.25%。其中铝板带开工 | | | 率下滑1.85%至68.65%，铝箔开工率下滑2.14%至73.43%，铝型材开工率上涨0.75% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in revenue and net profit for the company, driven by increases in coal, aluminum, and electricity sales [5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 29.859 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 11.23% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.342 billion yuan, up 17.15% year-on-year [4][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in profitability for the company, supported by its coal, aluminum, and electricity segments [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company produced approximately 48 million tons of coal, with sales of 47.76 million tons, both up 3% year-on-year. The unit price for coal increased by 9% to 213.5 yuan per ton, resulting in a coal gross profit of 124 yuan per ton, up 16% year-on-year [5] - The aluminum segment saw a 21.6% increase in gross profit per ton, with production and sales of 900,000 tons, also up 3% year-on-year. The unit price for aluminum rose by 7% to 17,402 yuan per ton [5] - The electricity segment experienced a 95% increase in sales from renewable energy, while coal power sales decreased by 1% to 5 billion kWh [5] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company announced a dividend payout of 1.793 billion yuan (including tax), with a dividend yield of 4.5% based on the total share capital of 2,241,573,493 shares [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 29.907 billion yuan, 35.011 billion yuan, and 36.604 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 5.555 billion yuan, 6.143 billion yuan, and 6.541 billion yuan [8][9] - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) of 2.48 yuan, 2.74 yuan, and 2.92 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the issuance of the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)" by ten government departments, which aims to promote structural adjustments in the aluminum industry and enhance environmental performance [1][2] - The plan prohibits the addition of new electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity in key areas for air pollution prevention, while encouraging the transfer of aluminum industry capacity out of these regions [1][2] - By 2027, the plan targets a 30% increase in the proportion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity above the benchmark energy efficiency level, with a clean energy usage ratio of 30% and a new red mud comprehensive utilization rate exceeding 15% [1][2] Group 2 - The plan emphasizes optimizing the layout of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, with strict requirements for new projects, including a maximum aluminum liquid AC power consumption of 13,000 kWh/ton and achieving A-level environmental performance [2] - It supports the application of low-sulfur anode materials and aims to create benchmark enterprises that meet A-level environmental performance, while promoting the transfer of aluminum industry capacity from key pollution prevention areas [2] - The plan encourages the use of clean energy alternatives in the aluminum industry, discouraging the addition of new self-owned coal-fired units and promoting green electricity trading and investment in clean energy projects [3]

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2505 合约收于 77600 元，跌幅 0.5%，沪铜指数增仓 4180 手至 53.41 万 手。 2.现货：铜价震荡下行但仍处高位，下游接货需求有所减弱，成交重心有所下调。上海报 升水 175 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 10 元/吨，天津报贴水 10 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。广东 地区报升水 225 元/吨，持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1.截至 4 月 24 日周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 1.48 万吨至 18.17 万吨，较上周四 下降 5.1 ...