Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Baijiu and Snack Food Sectors Baijiu Industry Insights - Moutai prices have slightly rebounded, with expected batch prices fluctuating between 2,100 and 2,200 RMB, and an increase in non-standard products leading to a slight rise in total inventory [1][3] - Wuliangye's batch prices are above 920-925 RMB, but transaction volumes remain low, indicating low channel inventory [5][9] - Fenjiu is optimistic about growth, focusing on mid-tier products, with expectations for significant single-digit growth in marketing and profits for 2025 [1][10][13] - The overall baijiu industry is showing signs of cyclical adjustment, with a decrease in the number of large-scale enterprises and a slight increase in sales but a decline in profits [1][14] - Strict regulations on government consumption have led to a significant decline in business demand, with expectations of nearly double-digit declines [2][7] Snack Food Sector Insights - The snack food industry is still in an expansion phase, with stable single-store profit models and strong franchisee investment returns, averaging about two years [1][18][19] - The number of stores for brands like Mixue Ice City is increasing, with nearly 2,000 new stores opened in the first five months of 2025 [1][16][19] - The zero-sugar snack segment is experiencing rapid growth, with brands like Salted Fish expanding their product lines and improving profit margins through e-commerce channels [1][23] - The overall snack food market is projected to grow, with significant opportunities for companies with strong brands or continuous product innovation [1][31] Key Market Trends and Challenges - The baijiu market is facing challenges due to a decline in government consumption and overall economic conditions, leading to a cautious outlook from distributors [2][8] - Snack food brands are leveraging e-commerce and social media to enhance brand visibility and sales, indicating a shift towards online retail [20][22] - The competitive landscape is tightening, with top brands maintaining strong market positions while mid-tier brands struggle to sustain profitability [21][22] Recommendations for Investors - Focus on high-end baijiu brands and those with strong channel advantages, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, as they show better performance and execution capabilities [1][15] - Monitor the performance of snack food brands in the context of ongoing market expansion and franchisee confidence, as these factors could present investment opportunities [1][32] - Consider the impact of regulatory changes and economic conditions on traditional industries, particularly in the baijiu sector, when making investment decisions [1][7][14]

Summary of the Snack Retail Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The snack retail industry has undergone three development phases: - 2010-2019: Model exploration phase - 2020-2022: Model innovation phase focusing on supply chain and store standardization - 2023-present: Rapid store opening and mergers & acquisitions phase, represented by companies like "Snack Busy" and "Wancheng Group" [1][2][9] Key Insights and Arguments - The snack retail industry has lower gross and expense ratios compared to traditional retail, but higher turnover efficiency. For instance, Wancheng Holdings has inventory turnover days between 10-20 days and accounts payable turnover periods also short, allowing better management of payment terms and long-term partnerships with brands [1][3][4] - The industry has an estimated potential for 70,000 to 80,000 stores, with current single-store revenue remaining stable. The return on investment for franchisees has not significantly extended despite increased store density, indicating substantial future market potential [1][5][17] - "Snack Busy" Group is the largest snack and beverage retailer in China, with plans to exceed 14,000 stores by the end of 2024, making it the fastest-growing company in the franchise sector. Fundraising efforts are aimed at enhancing supply chain capabilities, upgrading store types, and expanding product categories [1][6][7] Industry Trends - The snack retail sector is evolving from a single-category focus to a full-category discount supermarket model to enhance single-store revenue and consumer loyalty. Examples include "Three Squirrels" launching discount initiatives and Wancheng testing full-category discount supermarkets [1][8][20] - The industry is characterized by high turnover efficiency, with low inventory and accounts payable turnover days compared to traditional supermarkets, which typically have longer payment terms [4][16] Competitive Landscape - The snack retail industry is primarily strong in third-tier and lower markets, with "Snack Busy" having 70% of its stores in these areas, and over 60% in rural markets. This sector will continue to consolidate its advantages through increased store density [3][18] - In contrast, competition in large cities is intense, with major players like Walmart and Sam's Club expanding rapidly. However, the high rental costs in urban areas limit the profitability of snack retail stores [18][19] Future Opportunities and Challenges - The snack retail industry is expected to continue growing, with the potential for 70,000 to 80,000 stores nationwide. Current single-store revenue has shown stability, with "Snack Busy" increasing from 3.1 million yuan in 2022 to 3.8 million yuan in 2024 [5][17] - The industry is likely to see a consolidation of smaller brands due to cash flow issues, with leading brands like "Snack Busy" and "Wancheng Group" expected to increase their market penetration through mergers and acquisitions [12][17] - The strategy of expanding product categories to include daily necessities is aimed at enhancing consumer loyalty and increasing single-store revenue, positioning the snack retail sector for sustained growth [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence and growth potential of "poor people's supermarkets" in China, exemplified by the listing application of Hunan Mingming Henbang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its rapid expansion in lower-tier markets and significant revenue growth projections [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hunan Mingming Henbang has approximately 58% of its stores located in county towns and rural areas, indicating a deep penetration into the lower-tier market [1]. - The company reported revenue figures of RMB 4.285 billion, RMB 10.295 billion, and RMB 39.343 billion for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203.0% [2]. - The total Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 55.5 billion [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The retail sector in China is experiencing a transformation, with a notable shift towards discount retailing and the emergence of hard discount models, as seen with companies like Aldi and the rise of discount supermarkets [4][19]. - The discount retail market is expected to grow to RMB 2.28 trillion by 2025, with a CAGR of 11.0% from 2022 to 2025 [19]. - The trend of "quality-price ratio" is becoming prominent, where consumers seek high-quality products at lower prices, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards value [8][12]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with major players like Three Squirrels and Yonghui Supermarket facing challenges, including significant shareholder losses and strategic shifts [14][16]. - The concept of private labels is gaining traction, with companies like Aldi achieving over 90% of their product offerings as private labels, which allows for lower prices and higher quality control [27]. - The article highlights the importance of supply chain optimization and operational efficiency as key competitive advantages in the discount retail space [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The two major players in the snack retail industry are expected to fully enter the capital market, with Mingming Hen Mang officially submitting its prospectus for a Hong Kong listing, potentially positioning itself alongside Wancheng Group as a leading snack giant in both the Hong Kong and A-share markets [2][8]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - Mingming Hen Mang's revenue projections for 2022 to 2024 are 4.28 billion, 10.29 billion, and 39.34 billion RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 203.0% [2]. - By the end of 2024, Mingming Hen Mang is expected to have 14,400 stores and 120 million members, with a total GMV exceeding 55.5 billion RMB [2]. - The market share of Mingming Hen Mang in the leisure food and beverage sector has surpassed Walmart, reaching 1.5% [3]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in store efficiency, with average daily sales per store rising from 38,800 RMB to 45,200 RMB, and daily sales exceeding 15,000 RMB [12]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Competition - The snack retail sector has rapidly expanded, with the number of snack retail stores in China increasing from approximately 2,500 at the end of 2021 to 37,500 in just three years [5]. - The merger between "Zero Snacks Very Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" is seen as a strategic move to counter competition, especially as Wancheng Group has been acquiring multiple snack brands [8][10]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with both Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group achieving a combined market share of over 70% by the end of 2024 [28]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Operational Efficiency - In 2024, Mingming Hen Mang's adjusted net profit is projected to reach 910 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 2.3% [31]. - The company maintains a stable gross margin of 7.5% to 7.6%, while its net profit margin has improved from 1.7% to 2.1% [23]. - The average inventory turnover days for Mingming Hen Mang is 11.6 days, consistent with two years prior [27]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - Mingming Hen Mang is diversifying its product offerings by introducing a new store model that includes daily necessities, aiming to increase customer frequency and average transaction value [39]. - The company has launched several self-branded products, maintaining a focus on cost-effectiveness [40]. - Marketing efforts have intensified, with partnerships with celebrities and the introduction of innovative store concepts to enhance brand recognition [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The company Mingming Henmang Group, a leading player in the snack retail sector, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its entry into the public market [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, achieving revenues of 4.29 billion RMB in 2022, 10.30 billion RMB in 2023, and projected 39.34 billion RMB in 2024, representing an over eightfold increase in three years [6][7]. - Despite the impressive revenue figures, the company has maintained low profit margins, with gross profit margins of 7.5% in 2022, 7.5% in 2023, and 7.6% in 2024, which are lower than its competitor Wancheng Group's 10.76% during the same period [10][11]. Business Model - The company's business model is characterized by a low-cost, high-volume strategy, focusing on a wide range of products and a significant presence in lower-tier cities, with approximately 58% of its stores located in county towns and rural areas [4][8]. - The franchise model has become a mainstream choice in the snack retail industry, with 99.5% of the company's revenue coming from supplying products to its franchise stores [11][13]. Market Competition - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with both Mingming Henmang and its rival Wancheng Group aggressively expanding their store networks, leading to market saturation in certain areas [14][15]. - Both companies have implemented substantial franchise support policies to attract and retain franchisees, resulting in a significant increase in the number of franchise stores for Mingming Henmang from 994 in 2022 to 7,241 in 2024 [17]. Strategic Shifts - The company is shifting its strategy to focus on higher quality and differentiated products, moving away from solely competing on price [22][25]. - Mingming Henmang has initiated a self-branding strategy, launching its own product lines to improve profit margins and enhance its market image [24][26][28]. Future Outlook - The company plans to allocate 70% of the funds raised from its IPO for store expansion, indicating a continued focus on growth [18]. - Additionally, Mingming Henmang is exploring new retail formats, such as community discount supermarkets, to diversify its offerings and meet broader consumer needs [29][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 10.821 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 124.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 215 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 3344.13% [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 11.02%, an increase of 1.24 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.99%, up by 1.86 percentage points [5] - The company has launched a new stock incentive plan for 2025, aiming for significant net profit growth targets over the next four years [7] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a net profit of 412 million yuan in its snack wholesale business for Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 3.85%, marking a record high [6] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 52.567 billion yuan, 63.522 billion yuan, and 72.402 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 62.6%, 20.84%, and 13.98% [8] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 744 million yuan, 985 million yuan, and 1.185 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 153.33%, 32.43%, and 20.36% [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is 29.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.8 billion shares [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 39.88, decreasing to 30.11 in 2026 and 25.02 in 2027 [11] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 79.9%, indicating a high level of leverage [4]

市场表现 2025 年 05 月 05 日 高景气度延续，盈利能力释放 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 164.75 | | 总市值（亿元） | 297 | | 总股本（百万股） | 180 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 156 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 18.02-164.75 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 177.48 | -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 (%) 万辰集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《万辰集团（300972）：拓店势 能延续，规模效应释放》2025-04- 20 2、《万辰集团（300972）：利润持 续释放，布局省钱超市探索新业 态》2025-01-26 3、《万辰集团（300972）：跑马圈 ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 高景气度延续，盈利能力释放 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 164.75 | | 总市值（亿元） | 297 | | 总股本（百万股） | 180 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 156 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 18.02-164.75 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 177.48 | 市场表现 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 (%) 万辰集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《万辰集团（300972）：拓店势 能延续，规模效应释放》2025-04- 20 2、《万辰集团（300972）：利润持 续释放，布局省钱超市探索新业 态》2025-01-26 3、《万辰集团（300972）：跑马圈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence and growth of discount supermarkets in China, particularly focusing on the listing of Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. and its rapid expansion in lower-tier cities [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hunan Mingming Hen Mang has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with approximately 58% of its stores located in county towns and rural areas, indicating a deep penetration into the lower-tier market [2]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 42.8 billion, RMB 102.9 billion, and RMB 393.4 billion from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203.0% [3]. - The merger of two leading snack chains, "Zero Snacks" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks," has positioned Mingming Hen Mang as a major player in the snack retail sector [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The discount retail sector in China is experiencing a transformation, with a notable increase in the number of stores, as evidenced by Mingming Hen Mang and other brands like "Hao Xiang Lai" both surpassing 15,000 stores [4]. - The retail industry is witnessing a shift towards lower prices and higher value, with consumers increasingly seeking products that offer better quality at lower costs, a trend referred to as "quality-price ratio" [9][11]. - The overall discount retail market is projected to reach RMB 2.28 trillion by 2025, with a CAGR of 11.0% from 2022 to 2025, indicating robust growth in this segment [24]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major players in the discount retail space, such as Aldi and Sam's Club, are adopting hard discount models, which focus on reducing costs through supply chain optimization and operational efficiency [21][24]. - The rise of private label products is becoming a significant trend, with companies like Aldi achieving over 90% of their product offerings as private labels, which allows for lower prices and higher quality control [33]. - The competition in the discount retail sector is intensifying, with brands needing to innovate and differentiate themselves to maintain market share and consumer trust [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Mingming Hen Mang") has officially submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a significant move in the snack retail industry, particularly in the context of market consolidation and expansion into lower-tier markets [1][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang was established through the merger of "Snacks Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" in 2023, reflecting a trend of consolidation in the snack retail sector [1]. - As of December 31, 2024, Mingming Hen Mang operates 14,394 stores across 28 provinces and all tiered cities in China, with approximately 58% located in county and town areas [2]. - The number of franchisees increased from 994 in 2022 to 3,377 in 2023, and is projected to reach 7,241 by 2024, showcasing rapid expansion [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The snack retail industry in China is experiencing a shift towards lower-tier markets, which offer significant consumer potential and lower competition density, providing ample room for expansion for companies like Mingming Hen Mang [1]. - The market size of China's leisure food and beverage retail industry reached 3.7 trillion yuan in 2024, with expectations to grow to 4.9 trillion yuan by 2029 [6]. Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - Unlike traditional franchise models that rely heavily on franchise fees, 99.5% of Mingming Hen Mang's revenue comes from sales to franchise and direct stores, with franchise fees accounting for less than 0.5% [5]. - The company employs a strong control franchise system, focusing on franchisee training and management to enhance efficiency, contrasting with the loose franchise models seen in some convenience stores [3]. - Mingming Hen Mang has developed a digital infrastructure that covers the entire process from product selection to logistics and franchise management, aiming to improve operational efficiency and standardization [5]. Group 4: Product Strategy - The company plans to introduce a dual-brand 3.0 store model in 2025, expanding its product offerings to include diverse categories such as daily necessities, stationery, and fresh food, which is expected to enhance consumer engagement [4]. - As of the end of 2024, Mingming Hen Mang has 3,380 SKUs in stock, with about 25% being customized products, and plans to launch 100 new products each month to increase consumer loyalty [3][4]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The snack retail market is becoming increasingly competitive, with both traditional brands and new entrants adopting similar strategies to capture market share, including supply chain optimization and product diversification [6]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards healthier and more personalized snack options, necessitating continuous investment in research and development to meet evolving demands [6].