Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on November 18, with the three major indices declining collectively. The Kexin 50 ETF (588000) experienced a peak increase of 0.98% during the morning session, driven by semiconductor stocks, with significant gains from companies like Jingchen Co. (over 8% increase) and others like Zhongwei and Hanwha Microelectronics (over 3% increase) [1] - The Kexin 50 ETF (588000) has seen substantial capital inflow recently, with a net inflow of over 666.5 million in the last three days and over 2.143 billion in the last five days. The trading volume for the ETF exceeded 1.134 billion [1] - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a significant demand for various storage products, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCU, indicating a supply shortage in the storage industry that is expected to maintain high price levels [1] Group 2 - Changjiang Securities forecasts that the current storage cycle is being driven by increasing demand from AI, transitioning from a supply-controlled price cycle to a demand-driven industrial cycle. By 2026, the storage market is expected to see strong demand from AI, with manufacturers focusing more on server products, potentially reducing supply for consumer-grade products [2] - The Kexin 50 ETF (588000) tracks the Kexin 50 Index, with 69.3% of its holdings in the electronics sector and 5.17% in the computer sector, totaling 74.47%. This aligns well with the development of cutting-edge industries such as AI and robotics. The ETF also covers various high-tech sectors, including medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment, indicating a strong long-term outlook for China's hard technology sector [2]

Core Insights - The technology sector has been the most prominent market theme this year, with rapid rotations among sub-sectors like AI computing, semiconductors, and new energy, making it challenging for ordinary investors to navigate [1] - Broad-based index funds are emerging as a better solution for ordinary investors to participate in the technology wave, offering industry-balanced allocation that diversifies individual stock risks while capturing industry trend dividends [1] Group 1: Index Characteristics - The ChiNext 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices are highlighted as the "twin stars" of technology investment, with distinct compositions and risk profiles that complement each other [1][4] - The ChiNext 50 index represents "mature technology anchors," featuring leading companies in new energy, communications, and electronics, which have established strong competitive advantages and exhibit stable earnings [4] - In contrast, the Sci-Tech 100 index focuses on "hard technology pioneers," concentrating on sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, characterized by higher growth potential and volatility [4][6] Group 2: Momentum Rotation Strategy - A momentum rotation strategy is proposed, leveraging the strong performance of the ChiNext 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices, which exhibit a "stronger gets stronger" effect typical in the technology sector [7] - Entry signals for the strategy are defined as a cumulative increase of 8% or more over the past 20 trading days for either index, with a preference for the index showing stronger momentum [7] - The strategy includes ongoing monitoring of the holding index's momentum, with a switch to the stronger index if the other surpasses it by 3 percentage points [7][8] Group 3: Strategy Performance - Historical backtesting from November 14, 2020, to November 14, 2025, shows that the momentum rotation strategy achieved a total return of 96.36%, significantly outperforming the ChiNext 50's 31.84% and the Sci-Tech 100's -0.78% [10] - The strategy also demonstrated effective risk control, with a maximum drawdown of -25.46%, compared to -63.72% for the Sci-Tech 100 index, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 0.59, well above the benchmark's 0.21 [10] - The strategy successfully kept pace with market trends during bullish phases and avoided significant losses during market downturns by maintaining cash positions when both indices fell below the entry threshold [10]

编者荐语： 转载自申万宏源证券上海分公司，仅供参考。行业方面：当前申万一级行业指数中非银金融和食品饮料的PE估值（TTM）低于近十年20%分位水平，PE （TTM）估值分别处于近十年5.78%和14.57%的分位水平，可作为重点关注。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1、巴菲特指标： 当前A股巴菲特指标为89.92%，处于相对较高区间，高于安全区间。 2、估值历史百分位水平： 宽基指数方面： 目前市场主要宽基指数PE估值（TTM）均高于20%。深证成指、沪深300、上证50、北证50、科创50、上证指数和中证A100的PE估值（TTM）分别处于 上市80.70%、86.50%、92.10%、92.55%、96.06%、97.53%和99.63%的分位水平，估值分位相对较高，应注意风险。 行业方面： 当前申万一级行业指数中非银金融和食品饮料的PE估值（TTM）低于近十年20%分位水平，PE（TTM）估值分别处于近十年5.78%和14.57% 的分 ...

双贲驭险,中期伏波 -- 申万宏源 2026 年全球资产配置投资策略 展望 2026 年, 全球资产配置环境或从美联储预防式降息, 逐步过渡至财政 与货币政策双宽松驱动的再通胀周期，密切关注年内流动性拐点对资产轮 动的影响。国内大类资产逻辑也有望逐步从流动性宽松推动转向基本面趋 势准动。 | 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | ┣证指数 3972 -0.46 3.45 -1.16 | | 深证综指 2512 0.01 4.79 -0.7 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 -0.65 | 1.69 | 18.16 | | 中盘指数 --0.32 -- | 2.64 | 27.58 | | 小盘指数 | 5.26 | 25.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | FEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海川 | 6.47 | 18.46 | 24.24 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 6.2 | 26.46 | 57.21 | | 地面兵装II | 6.05 | 4.27 | 47.35 | ...

Core Insights - N Hengkun was listed today with an opening price of 58.00 yuan, representing an increase of 286.92% from its issue price [2] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of photolithography materials and precursor materials [2] - The total issuance volume was 67.3979 million shares, with an online issuance of 16.1865 million shares at an issue price of 14.99 yuan per share, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of 71.42, compared to the industry average of 60.47 [2] - The effective subscription number for the online issuance was 6.1918 million accounts, with a final winning rate of 0.02873717% [2] - The funds raised from the initial public offering (IPO) amounted to 1.01 billion yuan, primarily allocated to advanced materials projects for integrated circuits and the second phase of precursor projects for integrated circuits [2] Recent IPO Performance - N Hengkun's first-day performance was notable, with a significant increase compared to other recent IPOs, such as N Beikuan, which had a first-day increase of 360.90% [3] - The table of recent IPOs shows various companies with their respective issue prices, P/E ratios, and first-day performance, indicating a trend of strong market interest in new listings [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In October, general public budget expenditure turned negative year-on-year, with spending related to "three guarantees" and infrastructure investment showing a decline compared to the previous month, necessitating attention to the effectiveness of incremental fiscal policies since September [2] - Government fund revenues and expenditures are both slowing down, with expectations for improvement once local government debt limits are set and utilized to supplement overall financial capacity [2] - The supply of government bonds for the year is nearing its end, while an increase in fiscal deposits year-on-year in October indicates that there is still room for fiscal funds to be released, which is favorable for future liquidity [2] Group 2: High-end Manufacturing Industry - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is projected to have long-term growth potential, with a recent procurement project exceeding 2 billion yuan, covering areas such as power systems, low-temperature systems, and shielding layers [3] - Key companies to watch in the vacuum chamber and internal components segment include: Hezhong Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Antai Technology, Yingliu Co., Parker New Materials, and Tiangong International [3] - In the magnet system segment, notable companies include Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Yongding Co., while in the power system segment, focus on Sichuan Chuang Electronics, Wangzi New Materials, and Xuguang Electronics [3] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - Supply growth for steel, copper, and aluminum remains constrained, with gold benefiting from the US interest rate cut cycle and central bank purchases [4] - Recommended stocks for steel include Baosteel Co. and Jiuli Special Materials, with attention to companies like Ordos, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel [4] - For copper, recommended stocks are Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Western Mining [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market - As of November 16, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 674,000 units, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, with significant declines in cities like Beijing (-16%) and Shenzhen (-25%) [5] - In the second-hand housing market, transactions in 10 cities reached 667,000 units, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, with notable growth in Shenzhen (+15%) and Shanghai (+11%) [5] Group 5: Company Research - Electronics - The company is expected to see performance improvement driven by its cellular baseband business, with mobile SoC and ASIC products supporting future growth [6] - Profitability recovery in the IoT business is slower than expected, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the potential for growth in its mobile SoC product matrix and the high growth of its ASIC business benefiting from the trend of AI localization [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

【导读】日本股市开盘大幅走低，日经225指数跌超2% 11月18日，日本股市开盘再度走低，日经225指数下跌超1000点，跌幅超2%。 日本东证指数快速跳水，跌超1.5%，现报3297.14点。 | 日本东证指数 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.TOPIX | | | | | | | 3297.14 -50.39 -1.51% | | | | | | | 11-18 08:42:42 | | | | | | | 今开 3321.56 | | 最高 3330.38 | | | | | 昨收 3347.53 | | 最低 3294.50 | | | | | 分时 周Ｋ | 日K | 目K | 藝K | 更多, ◎ | | | 均价:3312.98 最新:3297.14 -50.39 -1.51% | | | | | | | 3400.56 | | | | | 1.58% | | 3347.53 | | | | | 0.00% | | 3294.50 | | | | | -1.58% | | 08:00 11:45 | | | | | ...

【导读】日本股市开盘大幅走低，日经225指数跌超2% | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 古河电气工业 | 9636.0 | -6.72% | 6809亿 | | 5801.T | | | | | 藤仓 | 18570.0 | -6.40% | 54942亿 | | 5803.T | | | | | 住友电气工业 | 6114.0 | -6.41% | 48542亿 | | 5802.T | | | | | BAYCURRENT | 6561.0 | -5.77% | 10197亿 | | 6532.T | | | | | RESONAC控股 | 5812.0 | -5.20% | 10746亿 | | 4004.T | | | | | M3集团 | 2535.0 | -5.20% | 17216亿 | | 2413.T | | | | | 软银集团 | 19425.0 | -4.50% | 27.74万亿 | | 9984.T | | | | | SHIFT软件 | 980.4 | -4.44% | 2623亿 | | 3697.T ...

Group 1: Commodity ETFs Growth - The total scale of commodity ETFs in the market has increased by over 200% this year, reaching a total of 229.99 billion yuan with a net inflow of 102.02 billion yuan as of November 14 [1] - The primary driver of this growth is the performance of gold ETFs, with leading products like Huaan Gold ETF growing from 1.2 billion yuan at inception to 87.38 billion yuan, a more than 70-fold increase [1] - The rise in commodity prices has created a profit-making effect that attracts capital into commodity ETFs, which offer a low-threshold and transparent investment tool for ordinary investors [1] Group 2: Asset Sales by A-Share Companies - Nearly 250 A-share companies have announced asset sales since October, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [1] - Companies are selling assets to focus on core businesses, accelerate capital recovery, or improve annual performance due to unsatisfactory results in the first three quarters [1] - The urgency of asset sales is influenced by new delisting regulations that pressure companies to meet financial data standards, although there are uncertainties in completing these sales by year-end [1] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry and Energy Storage - The energy storage market has surged since Q3, driving rapid demand for lithium battery materials, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate significantly increasing [2] - Phosphate lithium batteries dominate the new energy storage sector, accounting for over 97% of installed capacity [2] - The energy storage boom is seen as a new growth driver for lithium demand, indicating that this trend may just be beginning [2] Group 4: Major Contracts and Stock Price Catalysts - Nearly 70 A-share companies have signed significant contracts or strategic cooperation agreements since October, which are viewed positively by the market and tend to boost stock prices [3] - The mechanical equipment and power equipment sectors have the highest number of companies involved in these contracts, with notable projects like a 6.16 billion yuan contract for a large-scale energy storage project [3] Group 5: Hong Kong-listed Automakers' Q3 Reports - Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely Auto reported their Q3 results, with Xpeng's losses narrowing significantly, Leap continuing to be profitable, and Geely's profits increasing substantially [4] - The automotive industry is expected to face a critical phase next year, with companies needing strong profitability to survive [4] - All three companies expressed optimism about the market outlook and plans to accelerate overseas expansion despite the upcoming reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives [4]