1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by international trade policies and supply - demand dynamics. The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure, and the domestic soybean and bean -粕 markets are in a state of high inventory and structural shortage expectations. The protein -粕 market will oscillate, with the bean -粕 05 contract ranging from 2700 - 2870 [6]. - The rapeseed -粕 market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly disturbed by news related to imported rapeseed supply. Rapeseed -粕 mainly follows the protein -粕 market trend, with potential for a stronger performance but also risks of mood reversal. The 05 contract is expected to be in the range of 2300 - 2450 [45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean and Bean -粕 Market 3.1.1 International Situation - China maintains a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, and commercial purchases are still difficult. The progress of China's soybean purchases from the US is slower than expected, and the optimistic sentiment for exports is cooling. The focus of the January USDA report is whether US soybean exports will be adjusted downward, which could lead to an increase in the stock - to - consumption ratio. The CBOT soybean futures are oscillating downward [6]. - Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, and harvesting has begun in some areas. There is no weather premium on the futures, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, and the spot supply of bean -粕 from oil mills is still relatively abundant. Downstream feed enterprises have high inventories and limited demand, with average pick - up. Oil mill bean -粕 inventories continue to accumulate and remain at a high level [6]. - In the first quarter, the forward supply gap of imported soybeans in China has been partially repaired, but the soybean purchase plan from the US needs to be observed. The expectation of tightened customs policies for arriving ships has caused temporary supply concerns, but given the high inventories of soybeans and bean -粕, there is a risk of a reversal in market sentiment [6]. 3.1.3 Price and Cost - The USDA's December report predicts that in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production will be 422.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons compared to the previous year; the demand for soybean crushing will be 365.24 million tons, an increase of 7.04 million tons; and the export volume will be 187 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons. The final inventory will be 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons. The supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly [8]. - The price of imported soybeans is affected by the futures price, premium, and shipping costs. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the inverse relationship between the futures price and the premium [17]. 3.1.4 Purchase and Inventory - As of December 30, the purchase progress for the December 2025 shipment was 100%, 99.33% for January 2026, 82.82% for February 2026, and 77.47% for March 2026 [27]. - As of December 26, the oil mill bean -粕 inventory was 116.75 million tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous month and a 47.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The physical inventory of bean -粕 in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, a 13.54% increase from the end of the previous month and an 11.97% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. 3.1.5 Oil Mill Operations - In December 2025, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 9.0675 million tons, a 0.55% increase from the previous month and a 9.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The annual soybean crushing volume in 2025 was 101.728 million tons, a 6.35% increase compared to the previous year [31]. 3.2 Rapeseed -粕 Market 3.2.1 International Situation - Last week, ICE rapeseed futures oscillated at a low level. Trading was light before the New Year's Day holiday. The futures declined slightly due to the pressure of a bumper rapeseed harvest during the week and were supported by the rise in the vegetable oil market on the weekend. The settlement price of the main rapeseed futures contract on the weekend was 603.9 Canadian dollars, a 7.6 - Canadian - dollar decrease from the previous week, a 1.2% decline, and a 20.1 - Canadian - dollar decrease compared to the previous year, a 3.2% decline [45]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Canada's insistence on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has led to no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. There are basically no new purchase orders for Canadian rapeseed, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed -粕 in oil mills are at a low level. Rapeseed crushing plants are mostly shut down. As the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed -粕 in feed decreases, and market trading volume is limited, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [45]. - China is actively seeking alternative imports of rapeseed -粕 from multiple sources, and relevant news will have a significant impact on the futures [45]. 3.2.3 Policy Impact - The preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed maintains a 75.8% deposit for exporters, closing the window for importing Canadian rapeseed. This will significantly increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed, reducing import willingness, tightening the domestic rapeseed industry supply chain, and changing the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the rapeseed -粕 market [46]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - As of the first week, the rapeseed crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed -粕 production was 0 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed -粕 in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and there was no trading in the rapeseed -粕 market [61][64]. - As of the first week, the oil mill rapeseed -粕 inventory was 0 tons, the granular rapeseed -粕 inventory was 16.7 million tons, and the consumption was 0.8 million tons [69]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The bean -粕 05 contract basis was 296 yuan/ton, compared to 311 yuan/ton the previous week. The bean -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 101 yuan/ton, compared to - 106 yuan/ton the previous week [39]. - The rapeseed -粕 05 contract basis was 119 yuan/ton, compared to 93 yuan/ton the previous week. The rapeseed -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 47 yuan/ton, compared to - 59 yuan/ton the previous week [75]. - The soybean oil - to - bean -粕 ratio was 2.85, compared to 2.82 the previous week. The spread between the main contracts of bean -粕 and rapeseed -粕 was 393 yuan/ton, compared to 399 yuan/ton the previous week [82].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will significantly reduce the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9% and silver from 9.6% to 3.94%, leading to substantial selling pressure on silver [1][2]. Group 1: Rebalancing Impact - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities estimate that $7.7 billion worth of silver will flood the market in the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market, which may trigger a significant price correction [2][10]. - The rebalancing process is expected to unfold over several days, not just one, indicating a prolonged period of selling pressure on precious metals, particularly silver [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that the rebalancing will negatively impact precious metals while benefiting crude oil [3][5]. - TD Securities highlights that the trading volume of the largest silver ETF has reached extreme levels, typically seen only at market peaks, indicating speculative fervor among retail investors [3][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that liquidity in the London market is crucial for determining silver price trends, with tight inventory conditions likely to lead to extreme price volatility [4][12]. - The current tightness in the London market is exacerbated by speculative activities surrounding U.S. trade policies, which have led to a significant outflow of silver from London inventories [12][13]. Group 4: Price Sensitivity - Deutsche Bank estimates that a sale of 2.4 million ounces of gold could lead to a price drop of 2.5%-3.0%, depending on the sensitivity model used [7]. - In tight market conditions, the sensitivity of silver prices to net demand has increased significantly, with a typical weekly demand of 1,000 tons pushing prices up by about 2%, now heightened to 7% [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft - commodity markets, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped sharply today with a significant reduction in positions, as commodities fell collectively. The recent rally was driven by expectations, while downstream conditions were average. Spot sales were ordinary with a stable - to - weak basis. Although new - cotton production increased substantially, commercial inventories were lower year - on - year, and sales progress was faster, providing strong support for the market. Currently in the off - season, demand remained stable. As of December 25, cumulative lint processing was 669.7 million tons, up 75.8 million tons year - on - year. As of December 15, national cotton commercial inventories were 534.9 million tons, down 1.63 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, but the reduction range was not specified. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials was resilient with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Suggestion: Exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. Internationally, the short - term market focus was on the yield forecast gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar season, India's production progress was fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output. However, Thailand's production was slow and output was below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. In December, Guangxi's sugar production and sales both decreased. December single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, down 43.1 million tons year - on - year; sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, down 55.18 million tons year - on - year; industrial inventories were 105.71 million tons, down 6.21 million tons year - on - year. The sales decline was mainly due to strong market bearish sentiment. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season, the production progress was always slow. If production could not increase later, futures prices would rise. Suggestion: Wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices oscillated at high levels. In the spot market, mainstream prices were stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking prices of some soft - semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the producing areas mainly packed their own goods for market, with less procurement of farmers' fruit. Due to merchants starting to stock up for the Spring Festival, cold - storage trading volume increased. As of December 26, national cold - storage apple inventories were 702.1 million tons, down 12.76% year - on - year. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, down 14.17% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell might affect the destocking speed. Suggestion: Wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices dropped slightly, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices increased, and the outer - market butadiene port prices continued to rise. Thailand's raw - material market prices were stable with some increases. In terms of supply, global natural rubber supply entered the production - reducing period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan accelerating to stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continuing to rise. In terms of demand, last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventories of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased to 54.83 million tons, with both bonded - area and general - trade inventories increasing. Before the holiday, China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 4.13 million tons. Overall, after the holiday, demand would recover, natural rubber supply would decline, synthetic rubber supply would be stable, natural rubber inventory would continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory would continue to decline, cost support would strengthen, and market sentiment would weaken. Suggestion: Wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space for pulp might be restricted. The focus was on macro and capital trends. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a 0.5% increase. The inventory continued to accumulate. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support for coniferous pulp. Recently, the outer - market quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp both increased. Paper mills' procurement of pulp was mainly based on rigid demand, and the increase in base - paper prices was relatively weak. Suggestion: Buy on dips [6] Timber - Futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, mainstream quotes were stable. In terms of supply, outer - market quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. In terms of inventory, as of January 2, the total national port log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a 5.12% increase. The total national log inventory was relatively low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, low inventory provided some support for prices. Suggestion: Wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to negatively impact precious metals like gold and silver, while benefiting crude oil and other energy commodities [2][4]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities predicted a potential 13% sell-off of open contracts in the COMEX silver market, leading to a significant drop in silver prices and ongoing liquidity issues [1]. - Hsueh from Deutsche Bank indicated that the rebalancing could result in a downward adjustment of gold's weight from 20.4% to 14.9%, and silver's weight from 9.6% to 3.94% [2][3]. Group 2: Rebalancing Details - The BCOM rebalancing will occur from January 9 to January 15, 2024, and will not be completed in a single day [5]. - The largest supply impact from the rebalancing is expected to come from silver, aluminum, and gold, while the largest demand impact will be seen in WTI crude oil, natural gas, and low-sulfur diesel [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical data shows that significant weight changes in the BCOM have generally correlated with price movements of the respective commodities, with the exception of gold in the previous year [8]. - The estimated impact of a 2.4 million ounces gold sell-off could lead to a price decrease of 2.5% to 3.0%, depending on the analysis method used [7].

Core Viewpoint - The premium agricultural product industry is accelerating its upgrade towards "technology empowering tradition, quality anchoring development, and traceability ensuring safety" [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The revitalization of intangible cultural heritage techniques and standardized quality control are key drivers for high-quality development in the industry [1] - The 2025 China Food and Drug Quality Safety Conference highlighted the importance of these trends in shaping the future of agricultural products [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Xia Haiwei, General Manager of Shangzhuang LianTuo Agricultural Technology Development (Beijing) Co., Ltd., shared experiences in the inheritance of intangible cultural heritage and technological empowerment in the Jingxi rice sector [1] - The company emphasizes "technology revitalizing intangible heritage and craftsmanship preserving original flavors" as a foundation for development and leading the high-quality upgrade of premium agricultural products [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Venezuela has agreed to use its oil sales revenue exclusively for purchasing American-made goods, including agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, and equipment for improving its electrical grid and energy facilities [1] Group 1 - The announcement was made by U.S. President Trump on January 7 via his social media platform "Truth Social" [1] - As of the time of reporting, there has been no response from the Venezuelan side regarding this agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the average prices of 55 major consumer goods in the market of Mengyin County, Shandong Province, show a mixed trend with 13 items increasing, 16 remaining stable, and 26 decreasing, resulting in an overall price decline of 2.44% compared to 2024 [1] Grain Products - The average prices of two monitored grain products decreased by 3.85% in 2025 compared to 2024, with wheat at 1.19 yuan per jin (down 6.75%) and corn at 1.18 yuan per jin (down 0.94%) [1] Processed Grain Products - Among seven monitored processed grain products, one increased, five remained stable, and one decreased, with an average price increase of 0.35%. Green beans rose to 6.8 yuan per jin (up 4.62%), while other products like standard flour and corn flour remained stable, and japonica rice decreased to 2.74 yuan per jin (down 2.16%) [1] Edible Oils - The average prices of five monitored edible oil products decreased by 5.25% in 2025 compared to 2024, with soybean oil at 35 yuan for 5 liters remaining stable, while peanut oil decreased to 10.44 yuan per jin (down 9.89%) [1] Meat, Poultry, and Eggs - The average prices of eight monitored meat, poultry, and egg products decreased by 9.09% in 2025 compared to 2024, with pork prices dropping significantly (e.g., lean pork at 14.8 yuan per jin down 12.53%) and eggs at 3.58 yuan per jin (down 22.82%) [2] Aquatic Products - Among four monitored aquatic products, the average price increased by 3.59% in 2025, with live crucian carp at 7.93 yuan per jin (up 3.85%), while other products remained stable or saw minor decreases [2] Vegetables - The average prices of 17 monitored vegetable products decreased by 3.52% in 2025, with significant increases in prices for cucumbers (up 2.46%) and tomatoes (up 6.98%), while others like celery and cabbage saw notable declines [3] Fruits - The average prices of five monitored fruit products increased by 2.93% in 2025, with apples rising to 3.52 yuan per jin (up 18.95%) and watermelons at 2.43 yuan per jin (up 4.49%), while bananas and pears experienced price declines [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations are swinging back and forth. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's return to a "restrictive" stance in December, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad, with asset sentiment deviating from the macro situation. Future commodity prices will be determined by supply - side risks and loose monetary policies due to global geopolitical instability [1]. - There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December returned to the expansion range [2]. - For commodity investment, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals. There are also opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for price increases. In the energy sector, pay attention to the growth expectation of crude oil supply after the US "temporary management" of Venezuela. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of some varieties. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are unstable. After the Central Economic Work Conference in December and the 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference in January, there are uncertainties in domestic and foreign policies. The Fed has internal differences. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's Day holiday have increased supply - side risks for commodities [1]. - On January 7, the A - share market showed mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain was active, and the coal sector had a strong performance. In the commodity futures market, many contracts such as nickel, coke, and coking coal reached the daily limit [1]. Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's November foreign trade growth rebounded. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs returned to the expansion range. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but were still weak, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high [2]. Commodity Investment - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Among non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a good choice. In the energy sector, pay attention to the situation in Venezuela and Iran. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices, but short - term silver risks have increased [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Key News - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month in December. On January 8, the central bank carried out a 1.1 trillion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation. The US Supreme Court will rule on the tariff issue on January 9. Trump announced that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].