2025年9月发布的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》是行业发展的重要指南。中国有 色金属工业协会重金属部主任段绍甫认为，为落实《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》 提出的"质的有效提升"，需要强化资源保障，构建多元化供给体系。一方面推进国内资源开发。国家组 织实施了新一轮找矿突破战略行动，要稳步提升国内矿产自给率。另一方面大力发展再生金属利用。加 快推进有色金属再生资源相关产业政策修订，扩大和规范再生资源进口；推广先进有色金属再生处理技 术，特别是高效清洁回收技术；完善再生有色金属标准体系，打通高品质再生金属进入高端应用领域的 渠道。 2025年，有色金属大宗商品价格上涨明显。对于备受关注的有色金属价格走势，中国有色金属工业协会 政策研究室主任林如海表示，2026年，有色金属市场将呈现"结构分化、波动加剧"的整体格局，价格中 枢有望进一步上移。国内外多种因素将为2026年有色金属价格提供有力支撑。但是，市场也需警惕海外 宏观政策转向、供需预期差导致的行情反复，以及主产区政策变动、资金获利了结带来的波动加剧这些 风险。下一步，将密切跟踪市场动态，加强行业引导，推动上下游协 ...

Group 1 - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a shift in capital flow, with traditional broad-based ETFs seeing outflows while sector-specific ETFs in high-growth industries like chemicals, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals are attracting significant inflows [2][3] - As of February 6, 2026, seven industry ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan, with notable inflows into the Guotai Communication ETF (239.54 billion yuan), Penghua Chemical ETF (155.34 billion yuan), and Southern Non-ferrous Metals ETF (127.58 billion yuan) [3] - The overall net profit growth rate for A-shares in 2025 is projected to be 17.94% and 37.26% based on different calculation methods, indicating a recovery trend in corporate earnings [4] Group 2 - The current capital flow reflects investor interest in sectors aligned with industrial trends, particularly AI, price increase chains, and overseas expansion, which are expected to drive market performance [5] - Three key growth areas have been identified: AI demand in electronics and communications, price increases in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, and overseas expansion in pharmaceuticals and renewable energy [4][6] - The free cash flow analysis of A-share companies (excluding financial stocks) indicates an improving fundamental trend, with expectations for a turning point in corporate earnings growth in 2026 driven by AI technology and supportive policies [7] Group 3 - Investment opportunities in A-shares are expected to be abundant, driven by technological innovation, industrial upgrades, and green transformation, with a focus on sectors that are experiencing gradual earnings improvement and policy support [8] - The semiconductor industry in China is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with self-sufficiency rates expected to rise from 16% in 2020 to approximately 26% by 2025, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [8] - High-end manufacturing sectors, including military, nuclear power, wind energy, and energy storage, are anticipated to produce globally competitive leading enterprises [10]

以下文章来源于斑马消费 ，作者陈碧婷 寻找泛消费领域的斑马企业 本文来自微信公众号： 斑马消费 ，作者：陈碧婷，题图来自：视觉中国 铜，原本属于常见的工业原料，近期，却忽然被推入了公众的可持有资产配置里。 热度来得很快，一根1000克的金属条，封装、刻字、编号、配证书，摆上柜台与直播间，像极了贵 金属。许多人下单时并不笃定要赚多少，反而更在意手里多点实物就踏实一点。 而深圳水贝的铜条"禁售"风声之所以刺耳，是因为它戳中了热潮里最软的环节。 那些刚刚完成的下 单，瞬间就要面对买入容易、卖出难的现实命题。 这一畸形热潮背后，并非铜突然变得稀缺，而是安全感在找出口。 2026年1月22日，SMM所列的长江现货1 #铜均价为100410元 /吨，上海期货交易所的沪铜日行情也 在相近区间波动。然而，当这些数字在直播间里被反复转述，情绪就可能替代计算，许多人并不真正 理解"吨"的交易尺度，反而更容易被1000克一条的零售形态吸引。 斑马消费 . 低门槛、高情绪 铜条之所以能冲进大众购物车，正是因为低门槛的错觉。 多方信息显示，市场上流行的铜条规格多为1000克，零售端报价曾经在180元到299元之间波动，随 后在管理收紧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Alumina - The overall price of alumina is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The marginal contraction of the short - term supply side provides upward potential for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Due to strong uncertainties in the current macro - environment and the supply - demand dual - weak characteristics of the fundamentals, the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - With the cost weakening and the simultaneous contraction of supply and demand, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [108]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The probability of a rate cut in March is 21.7% (13.4% last week). The US dollar index is 97.96, the US PMI is 52.60, and the US 10 - 2 - year spread is 0.74%. The domestic manufacturing PMI is 49.30 [4][10][13]. 3.2 Alumina Futures - Last week, the main alumina contract 2605 closed at 2,824 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price last week was 2,610.4 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The overseas alumina market price in US dollars was 311 US dollars/ton, and the import window of the Chinese alumina market is currently closed [16]. Supply - Alumina plants' production cuts and overhauls are increasing, and the operating capacity continues to decline. As of last Friday, the installed capacity was 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons (down 800,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 82.3% [16]. Demand - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [16]. Valuation - The average full cost of alumina decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was - 234 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 166 yuan/ton. The weekly trading volume increased, while the open interest decreased [16]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the alumina inventory was 5.621 million tons and continued to accumulate [16]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Futures - Last week, the LME aluminum closing price was 3,015 US dollars/ton, down 121 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 23,315 yuan/ton, down 1,245 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. Macro - Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in January exceeded expectations and returned above the boom - bust line; the ADP employment data was unexpectedly lower than expected; the conflict between the US and Iran eased; the US stock earnings reports increased market concerns about AI capital expenditure. Domestically, relevant departments have introduced consumption - promotion and credit - related policies [59]. Spot - Last week, the average spot price in East China was 23,442 yuan/ton, down 3.56% from the previous week; in South China, it was 23,448 yuan/ton, down 3.55% from the previous week; in Central China, it was 23,336 yuan/ton, down 3.54% from the previous week [59]. Supply - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [59]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of aluminum products was 57.9% (down 1.5% from the previous week) [59]. Valuation - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased last week, and the average profit decreased. The basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 340 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [59]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum inventory was 836,000 tons and continued to accumulate [59]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures - Last week, the main ADC12 contract 2603 closed at 21,950 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Scrap Aluminum - Last week, the average price of crushed primary aluminum was 19,150 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the average price of crushed secondary aluminum was 19,650 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Spot - Last week, the average price of Baotai ADC12 was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of ADC12 last week was - 37 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.3% (down 0.6% from the previous week) [108]. Demand - Downstream die - casting enterprises generally replenish inventory based on rigid demand, and the actual demand is generally weak [108]. Valuation - The average cost of ADC12 decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was 1,045 yuan/ton, the 0 - 3 month spread was 875 yuan/ton, and the AD - AL spread was - 140 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [108]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the ADC12 inventory was 45,900 tons, with a slight inventory reduction [108].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月9日，博威合金在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，越南项目的设备没有进入美国市 场的电气认证，且该设备的参数与美国当地的供电系统不匹配，无法转移。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Non-ferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 1.90% at 2.145 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Non-ferrous Metals ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Huayou Cobalt, which also experienced gains [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Non-ferrous Metals Theme Index return, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 110.83% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a 4.15% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.06% at 2.233 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (2.14%), Northern Rare Earth (2.97%), and Huayou Cobalt (1.49%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.94% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a 5.03% return over the past month [1]

2026 年 02 月 09 日 信任命 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不 金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 若研究报 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万 指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点，2) 分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 17.38%，铝下跌 6.24%，能源金属下跌 3.59%，小金属下跌 3.20%，铜下跌 9. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical juncture, transitioning its operational logic with a focus on profit verification and systemic optimization by 2026, while investors should be cautious of "consensus traps" and prioritize long-term value over short-term trends [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Consensus and Trends - Three core consensus in the current A-share market include the recovery of cyclical sectors, rapid development of new productive forces, and the increasing value of low-valuation high-dividend assets [4]. - Compared to mid-2025, the market's driving logic has shifted from policy expectations to performance verification, with a stronger emphasis on profitability and a more balanced approach to growth and valuation [4][5]. - The low-valuation high-dividend assets are gaining traction due to dual confirmations from policy and valuation support, leading to a noticeable acceleration in recovery [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The consensus around cyclical and new productive forces is supported by fundamentals, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals benefiting from supply-demand restructuring and policy support [5]. - Investors should approach these consensus with caution, focusing on the sustainability of profits and the timing of policy implementation, while being wary of short-term data improvements being misinterpreted as long-term trends [5][6]. - Identifying quality opportunities in low-valuation high-dividend assets and technology breakthroughs in new productive forces can help mitigate the risks associated with consensus traps [8]. Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - By 2026, the A-share market is expected to exhibit a more sustainable and systematic growth pattern, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as structural changes in the market [9][10]. - The market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven environment to one driven by profit improvement and valuation recovery, with a dual focus on high dividends and technology growth [10][11]. - The core drivers of stable development in 2026 will include technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and consumption expansion, supported by effective policy implementation [11][12]. Group 4: Technology Investment Logic - The investment logic in the technology sector has shifted from focusing on technical feasibility to validating commercial viability and profitability [14]. - Key areas such as AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing are expected to gain market attention as they demonstrate real commercial applications and revenue generation [14][15]. - Investors should assess companies based on their technological barriers, commercialization capabilities, and financial health to identify those with genuine competitive advantages [15][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 2.07% at 1.135 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 122.52% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 4.76% [1]