1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Defensive wait-and-see for stock indices, take profit for treasury bonds [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Temporarily wait-and-see for rebar, oscillate for iron ore and coking coal and coke [1][6] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Range trading or wait-and-see for copper, wait-and-see for aluminum, suggest wait-and-see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][11] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Oscillate for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; wide-range oscillation for polyolefins; short lightly for soda ash [1][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate and adjust for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillate strongly for apples and jujubes [1][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide-range oscillation for corn; oscillate strongly for soybean meal and oils [1][38] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures varieties based on current market conditions, including macro events, supply and demand fundamentals, and policy expectations [1][6] - It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to key events such as the Sino-US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as the impact of these events on the market [6][11] - For each variety, it analyzes the supply and demand situation, cost factors, and market sentiment to predict the future price trend and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Due to the Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Politburo meeting, combined with the high margin trading and the decline in fund holding ratio, the stock indices may oscillate, especially with potential small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid-year reports in late August [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday and the central bank's capital injection improved market sentiment, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks." Attention should be paid to whether the important meeting will bring incremental demand-side policies. If demand improves, the bond market may not be overly optimistic [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The market is trading on the expectation of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively balanced. In the short term, it is expected to enter an oscillating pattern, and investors can wait and see or conduct short-term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures price oscillated strongly. Affected by the macro sentiment, the impact on iron ore is relatively small. The supply is expected to increase in the long term, but the current high profit of steel products and the expectation of the meeting support the price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is tight locally, and the import is improving. The demand for coke is strong, and the supply and demand structure is tight. The price of coking coal is expected to oscillate, and the price of coke may continue to rise [9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the US copper import tariff policy and the change in domestic demand, the copper price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, but the supply of imported ore may increase in the third quarter. The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for aluminum and short on rallies for alumina [12][13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in excess in the medium and long term, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,200 yuan/ton [14][15] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin is stable, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 245,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Sino-US trade talks and the Fed's interest rate decision, the market's risk aversion sentiment has decreased, but there are still concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to conduct range trading carefully, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 757 - 805 and the SHFE silver 10 contract being 8,700 - 9,500 [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 5,150 - 5,350 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The spot price is stable and weak, and the near-month contract is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 2,500 - 2,700 [24] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. The macro environment is favorable, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,600 [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is high, providing cost support. The downstream demand is general, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the focus on the pressure level of 15,000 [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises increases, and the industrial demand is stable. The inventory pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level of 1,700 - 1,730 and the pressure level of 1,820 - 1,850 [31] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory decreases, and the price may face a certain correction [32][33] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the macro sentiment and cost factors, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The L2509 contract can focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,500, and the PP2509 contract can focus on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 [34] - **Soda Ash**: After the market sentiment cools down, the futures price of soda ash has fallen back. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the price is overestimated. It is recommended to short lightly [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase, and the ending inventory will also increase. The Xinjiang cotton production is expected to be good, and the downstream consumption is light. The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [36] - **Apples**: The spot market is stable, the inventory of old-season apples is low, and the early-maturing apples are in stable demand. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the high range [36] - **Jujubes**: The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the growth period, and the second and third crops of flowers have a good fruit set. The supply in the sales area is low, and the price of high-quality products is strong. It is expected that the spot price will be stable and strong in the short term [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the resistance from the breeding side and the entry of secondary fattening limit the decline. In the medium and long term, the supply will gradually increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near-month contracts, and consider the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short-term supply pressure is weakened by the decline in egg production rate, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the large supply in the medium and long term restricts the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - **Corn**: The short-term supply and demand game intensifies, and the spot price has limited upward and downward space. The medium and long-term supply and demand are tightened, but the supply from substitutes limits the increase. It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally in the short term, with the range of 2,250 - 2,350, and consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the good weather in the US soybean producing areas and the abundant supply in China suppress the price. In the long term, there is a potential supply gap, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to cautiously go long on the M2509 contract and go long on dips for the M2511 and M2601 contracts [44][45] - **Oils**: The short-term market sentiment is bearish, but the supply and demand of Indonesian palm oil are balanced, and the demand from China and India still exists. The short-term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil can focus on the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,900 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 respectively [45][51]

韩国与美国讨论建设有色金属冶炼厂。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751) anticipates an annual production of approximately 6 tons of indium by 2025, contingent on the input of raw materials [1] Group 1: Production and Market Insights - The production of indium is classified as a comprehensive recovery product, with its output directly influenced by the quantity of raw materials brought in [1] - The market price for indium has consistently remained above 2000 RMB per kilogram since last year, indicating a stable pricing environment [1] - The company plans to actively monitor the market price and trends of indium to seize sales opportunities and maximize profitability [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and the demand in the spot market has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing, leading to an expected increase in supply. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a continuous increase in social inventories. After the market sentiment fades, zinc prices are expected to return to the fundamental logic, and due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is - 1.96 dollars/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 120 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and its premium rose 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell 160 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined 120 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium increased 35 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On July 28, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22905 yuan/ton, closed at 22645 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193107 lots, an increase of 41021 lots, and the position was 124461 lots, a decrease of 4767 lots. The highest price reached 22965 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22575 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 28, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 103700 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 115500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Cost**: The new - month tender price of domestic ore has not been determined, while the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching 85 dollars/ton, and the smelting profit is increasing. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for ore procurement, so the TC is expected to continue rising [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The downstream consumption shows some resilience, but the high growth on the supply side leads to an increase in social inventories, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Considering the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-29 消费趋弱，有色震荡承压 有⾊观点：消费趋弱，有⾊震荡承压 交易逻辑：美欧达成15%关税协议，但美国对等关税博弈仍在继续； 7月18日工信部提到十大行业稳增长，将推动重点行业着力调结构和 淘汰落后产能，整体来看，反内卷延伸到基本金属，供给收缩预期一 度提振有色，但美国关税预期反复对有色有压制。供需面来看，基本 金属供需逐步季节性趋松，国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看， 关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，但政策刺激预期及供应扰动 对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会， 逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月 底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会面临短时抛压，中长期来看， 基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期 过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪降温，锌价震荡偏弱。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks. Traders should pay attention to market sentiment changes, fundamental factors, and policy developments [2][3][6] - For most commodities, short - term price fluctuations are affected by market sentiment, especially the "anti -内卷" and supply - side reform expectations. However, in the long - term, fundamental factors such as supply and demand will play a more important role. Some commodities may face price adjustments due to over - speculation, while others may have potential based on their own fundamentals [33][37] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, industrial policies, and commodity futures market performance. The market has seen an all - around rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting and consider going long on IF index futures on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - On Monday, Treasury bond futures rose. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. Short - term market sentiment in commodities and stocks suppresses the bond market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [3][4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices fell slightly, while overseas prices rose slightly. Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, and US economic data is resilient, putting short - term pressure on precious metals prices. However, the Fed's monetary policy may turn dovish, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on silver [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US is close to a trade agreement with the EU, and the dollar index rises. Copper prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs, as well as seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports [9][10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic black - series commodities weakened, and aluminum inventories increased. Without unexpected policy announcements, market sentiment may be under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to low - level inventories and weak downstream demand [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. Short - term factors such as Fed's dovish sentiment and overseas structural risks need to be considered, and caution is needed for price fluctuations [12] Lead - Lead prices fell slightly. Lead ingot supply is marginally tightening, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Environmental inspections may affect smelter operations, and there is a possibility of price strengthening. Caution is needed for price fluctuations [13][14] Nickel - Nickel prices fell. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron has an oversupply problem. In the short - term, the macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [15] Tin - Tin prices fell. Short - term tin ore supply is still tight, but downstream demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell sharply. The commodity market has cooled, and there is uncertainty in capital games. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders should choose appropriate entry points [17][18] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to relevant policies [19] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The market atmosphere has weakened, and the supply is expected to increase. If downstream demand cannot keep up, prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - news and downstream demand [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are weak. Although there is cost support, there is upward pressure on prices [21][22] Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices fell. The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cost has decreased. Export volume has decreased, and the fundamentals of different steel products vary. Attention should be paid to policy signals and downstream demand [24][25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fell. Overseas shipments are increasing, and demand is high but slightly declining. Inventory has increased slightly. Short - term prices may adjust, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - policies [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fluctuated. Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and may be volatile. In the long - term, they depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [28] - Soda ash prices fell. Supply has decreased, and inventory pressure has eased. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a sharp decline as sentiment fades. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, and relevant enterprises consider hedging [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices fell. Short - term prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices fell. Supply concerns may ease, and there are differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a spread trading strategy [39][40][41] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices showed different trends. The fundamental market is healthy, and there is upward momentum, but seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a short - term target price [42] Methanol - Methanol prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of decline as sentiment cools. Fundamentally, supply may increase and demand may weaken, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [43] Urea - Urea prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is decreasing and demand is weak. Exports are an important factor, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [44] Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward [45][46] PVC - PVC prices fell. The fundamentals are weak with strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. Attention should be paid to export conditions and the risk of price decline after sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate. Demand is gradually improving, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following PX [49] Para - Xylene - Para - xylene prices fell. The load is high, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices were stable to weak. The market is trading on policy intervention, and the supply - surplus logic has changed. It is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [55] Eggs - Egg prices fell. Supply is stable, and demand is average. Short - term prices of near - month contracts will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. North American weather is favorable, and domestic soybean meal inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range and look for opportunities to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [57][59][60] Oils and Fats - Palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. The domestic oil inventory increased slightly. EPA policies and other factors support the price center, but there are also bearish factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [61][62][63] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian port sugar shipments increased, and domestic import supply pressure may increase. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64][65] Cotton - Cotton prices fell. Downstream consumption is average, and there is a potential negative factor of additional import quotas. The price has partially reflected the positive expectation, and caution is needed [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial sector, the short - term strong US dollar suppresses gold prices, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and the bond market sentiment will improve this week but with continued market fluctuations. The implementation of the national parenting subsidy system is expected to drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. - In the commodity sector, the supply and demand of various commodities vary. For example, the supply of coking coal is slightly tight, the supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, and the supply of some energy - chemical products is affected by factors such as production restrictions and inventory changes [13][17][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion from July to September, $450 billion more than the April forecast. Gold prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar, and the market is volatile this week. Short - term, gold is in a volatile state, and there is a risk of decline [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Thailand expects a favorable trade agreement from the US after the cease - fire with Cambodia. Trump may impose a 15% - 20% tariff on imports from countries without a separate trade agreement and shortens the cease - fire deadline for Russia. The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The national parenting subsidy system will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child. It is expected to increase annual fiscal expenditure by over 110 billion yuan and drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock index varieties [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US July Dallas Fed business activity index is 0.9, better than expected. The US Treasury raises its Q3 borrowing forecast. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The bond market sentiment will improve this week, but there are still uncertainties, and it is recommended to enter and exit quickly when going long [24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Environmental inspections in Wuhai limit coal production, and coking coal supply is tight. Coke prices are rising, but there are risks due to rapid price increases. It is necessary to manage positions [26][27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean good - to - excellent ratings rise to 70%, and Brazil's July soybean exports are expected to exceed last year. Domestic soybean meal inventory increases. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and focus on the Sino - US talks this week [28][30]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 25, soybean oil inventory decreases slightly, and palm oil inventory increases. Malaysian palm oil production increases in July. The market is expected to be under pressure, but palm oil has support. Soybean oil prices are hard to rise due to sufficient supply [31][32][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangtang Group aims for a sugarcane order area of 2.18 million mu by the end of 2025. Pakistan bids to buy 100,000 tons of sugar. The Sino - Thai AEO mutual recognition agreement will be implemented on August 1. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and focus on the resistance level of 5,900 yuan [35][36][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch spot prices are stable. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of some enterprises' production. Starch enterprises' losses may continue or expand [38][39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast China is expected to have more precipitation in the next 10 days, increasing waterlogging risks. Corn futures show differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop contracts and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's transportation fixed - asset investment in H1 is 1.6474 trillion yuan. Steel prices decline due to changes in market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term [42][43][44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Northern port steam coal prices are stable. Coal consumption growth slows down, and supply is slightly weak. Pay attention to coal consumption growth and port inventory changes [45]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company plans to develop an iron ore project. Iron ore prices follow the decline of coal prices. The fundamentals may weaken later. It is recommended to reduce positions [46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An aluminum plant in Xinjiang's alumina tender price rises. The domestic alumina surplus is increasing, and the futures price falls after rising. It is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Zimbabwe makes progress, and a lithium refinery project in Morocco is advancing. The futures exchange limits positions, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory for reverse arbitrage [50][51][52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Turkey raises the import reference price of some photovoltaic products. Polysilicon prices are affected by the market. The price is expected to be between 41,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and consider buying on dips [53][55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal in some areas rises. Industrial silicon production increases, and inventory changes. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities or sell out - of - the - money call options [57][58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment. In the short - term, it may be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is expected to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead smelting system in Guizhou starts production, and lead ingot social inventory changes little. The lead price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage [63][64][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Bolivian zinc concentrate production decreases in May, and domestic zinc ingot inventory increases. The zinc price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to positive calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for cross - border trading [67][68][69]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A refinery's LPG - related device is about to start. The LPG price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia temporarily bans gasoline exports. Oil prices rebound. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [73][74]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increases, and social inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile [75][76][77]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increases. The styrene price is affected by the macro - environment. Pay attention to macro - sentiment changes [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea prices in North China decline. The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [80][81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices decline. The PX price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the long - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA prices decline. The PTA price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The soda ash price drops sharply. The market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait for policy guidance [87]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market change. The glass price drops, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [88][89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export and domestic prices decrease. Bottle chip production decreases, but demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing margins on dips [90][91][92].

Group 1: Industry Development - The Anhui Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group has produced ultra-thin high-performance lithium battery copper foil, showcasing its focus on high-end copper industry chain development with over 700 research projects implemented since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Anhui is accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries while developing strategic emerging industries, aiming to build internationally competitive advanced manufacturing clusters [1][2] - The province is exploring new paths for the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of traditional industries, with high-tech and high-value-added products emerging continuously [2] Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - The Hefei Guoxian Technology Co., Ltd. is constructing an 8.6-generation active matrix organic light-emitting display device production line with an investment exceeding 50 billion yuan, which will significantly boost the new display industry cluster in Hefei [3] - From 2013 to 2024, the output value of Anhui's strategic emerging industries increased from 20.7% to 43.6% of the industrial output above designated size, with over 4,000 automotive parts and aftermarket enterprises established [3] - Anhui is committed to integrating innovation and industry, with 80% of newly recognized industrial innovation platforms and technology projects led by enterprises [3] Group 3: Future Industries - The Wuhu Aviation Town is attracting nearly 200 companies, creating a complete industrial chain focused on the low-altitude economy, enabling the production of domestic general aircraft within the park [5] - The "Wukong" quantum computer developed by Benyuan Quantum Computing Technology has completed over 500,000 quantum computing tasks for users in 143 countries and regions since its launch [6][7] - The manufacturing investment in Anhui is projected to grow by 13.3% year-on-year in 2024, with the automotive and equipment manufacturing industries both surpassing 1 trillion yuan in revenue [7]

Report Information - Report Title: "Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Preferences, Copper and Aluminum Prices Remain High - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.28" [1] - Author: Liu Peiyang [2] - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 58620083, Email liupy_qh@ccnew.com, Professional Certificate No. F0290318, Trading Consultation No. Z0011155 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Copper - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Although the supply in Shanghai has increased recently, the overall supply remains tight. The downstream consumption willingness is low due to high copper prices. The impact of tariffs on copper prices has been gradually digested, and prices are expected to remain bullish after stabilizing [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Copper 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 81,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 77,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Under the pressure of increased supply and the off - season of consumption, the inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the improvement of domestic macro - expectations will support aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. As of July 24, the national alumina weekly operating rate increased by 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The current spot - futures arbitrage window is open, and the warehouse receipt inventory is expected to increase. With the bullish domestic macro - expectations and low warehouse receipts, the alumina futures price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton. A bullish approach is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review Weekly Market Review - The cumulative weekly price changes from July 21 to July 25 were calculated for various metals including Shanghai Copper, International Copper, LME Copper, etc. [16] Weekly News Review - On July 21, the IAI reported that global primary aluminum production in June was 6.045 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [17]. - From this year to next year, 13.6 million tons of alumina projects in Guangxi are waiting to be put into production, while there is no new alumina capacity in Shanxi and Henan, and some factories may face elimination [17]. - On July 24, the EU started monitoring the import and export of scrap metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper due to supply shortages and smelter shutdown risks [17]. - On July 24, Japanese copper smelters were in difficult mid - year negotiations on processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [17] 02. Macroeconomic Analysis Domestic Market - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [21]. Overseas Market - On July 22, the US reached a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate and a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US [22]. - On July 27, the US reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, buying US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [22] 03. Copper Market Analysis Spot Market - The processing fee TC remained weak [26] Futures Market - The net long position in COMEX copper declined [29] Overseas Market - The US dollar index declined [33] Inventory - Exchange inventories of copper in SHFE, LME, and COMEX, as well as Shanghai bonded area inventories, were presented [35]. - As of July 24, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the inventory accumulated. The future operating rate is expected to continue to decline [41] 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Domestic Market - The spot premium of aluminum narrowed [44] Overseas Market - The US dollar index weakened [48] Inventory - Weekly inventories of SHFE aluminum, aluminum rod social inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory were shown [50] Downstream Operating Rate - As of July 24, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performances, and the weekly operating rate is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [52] Recycled Aluminum Alloy - As of July 24, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The cost increased, but the demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [56] Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were analyzed, and the profit was presented in a graph [60] 05. Alumina Market Analysis Spot Market - The spot price of alumina remained stable [63] Futures Market - The inventory of alumina futures was at a low level [66] Supply and Demand - Supply: The supply of alumina decreased slightly due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern plant. As of July 24, the built - in capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [71]. - Demand: The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly, leading to an increase in alumina demand [71] Cost and Profit - The cost of alumina increased slightly this week due to factors such as the price changes of bauxite, liquid caustic soda, and thermal coal. As of July 24, the industry cost was 2,997.62 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 250.36 yuan/ton [72]

Trade Recommendations for Different Futures Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive waiting and observing. The slow - bull trend remains but may correct recently due to factors like market sentiment cooling and high - level technical indicators [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profit, with a trend of weakening in oscillation. The bond market may adjust in oscillation, and the approach depends on investors' positions, durations, and tolerances [6][7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily wait and observe or engage in short - term trading. The market may oscillate as the cost has adjusted, and supply - demand is balanced, with upcoming macro and industrial policies to be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Consider it as the long - leg when shorting other black varieties. Although there are issues of potential supply surplus, support from other factors keeps it oscillating at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillate. The coking coal market has a tight short - term supply - demand pattern, and coke may see price increases, but key factors like production recovery and cost trends need attention [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Trade within a range or wait and observe. The price may oscillate due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand changes, and economic recovery expectations [12]. - **Aluminum**: Mainly wait and observe. There are risks in the short - term, with factors like changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand affecting the market, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings [14]. - **Nickel**: Consider shorting at high levels. The overall supply in the nickel industry is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [19]. - **Tin**: Trade within a range. Supply improvement is limited, and with low overseas inventory, the price is expected to be supported [21]. - **Gold and Silver**: Trade within a range cautiously. Market sentiment and tariff policies affect their prices, and they are expected to have support at the bottom [21][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillate, with attention to the 5150 support level. Supply is high, and export sustainability is in question, but policy expectations have an impact [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on 2500 - 2700. Supply is abundant, and demand has rigid support but a slow - down in growth [26]. - **Styrene**: Oscillate, temporarily focusing on 7300 - 7700. Fundamental positives are limited, and the market is affected by macro factors [28]. - **Rubber**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias, temporarily paying attention to the 15000 pressure level. There is a short - term callback risk, but raw material and inventory factors support it [30]. - **Urea**: First weaken then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is expected to increase, with a neutral supply - demand pattern [31]. - **Methanol**: Oscillate. Supply in some areas is tight, and demand is mixed, with a stable supply - demand situation [32]. - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate weakly. The L2509 contract focuses on 7200 - 7500, and the PP2509 contract focuses on 6900 - 7200. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in the off - season, but inventory provides some support [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Exit and wait and observe. Supply is high, and demand is under pressure, but short - term macro factors drive the market [35]. Cotton Spinning Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Global supply and demand are adjusted, and the domestic market has a tight supply, supporting the price [36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate [37]. - **Jujubes**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. New - season production and sales area conditions affect the price, which is expected to remain stable and strong [38][39]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Hogs**: Oscillate weakly. The short - term supply is strong, and demand is weak. Consider shorting the 09 and 11 contracts and going long on the 01 contract [40][41]. - **Eggs**: Short at high levels. Short - term price increases are limited, and supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [41]. - **Corn**: Oscillate within a range (2250 - 2350). Consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Short - term supply - demand is in a game, and mid - long - term supply is tightening [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, go long on the M2509 contract at low levels; in the mid - long - term, pay attention to weather conditions and go long on relevant contracts at low levels [43][44]. - **Oils**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, trade within the range for 09 contracts and buy on dips [45][50]. Global Major Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,593.66, down 0.33%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,168.14, down 0.22%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,127.16, down 0.53%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,795.51, down 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,299.59, up 0.10%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5,903.58, up 0.25% [2]. - The Nikkei Index closed at 41,456.23, down 0.88%; the Dow Jones Index closed at 44,901.92, up 0.47%; the S&P 500 Index closed at 6,388.64, up 0.40%; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,108.32, up 0.24% [2]. - The US Dollar Index closed at 97.6674, up 0.18%; the RMB exchange rate was 7.1679, up 0.18% [2]. - New York Gold closed at 3,338.50, down 0.97%; WTI Crude Oil closed at 65.16, down 1.32% [2]. - LME Copper closed at 9,796.00, down 0.59%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,631.00, down 0.57%; LME Zinc closed at 2,829.00, down 0.40%; LME Lead closed at 2,020.50, down 0.12%; LME Nickel closed at 15,265.00, down 1.33% [2].