Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.7% to 3424 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.34% and 0.47% respectively [1][2] - Total trading volume for the day was 1.58 trillion yuan, a decrease of 475 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 3400 stocks rising [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index gained 5.69% [1] Sector Performance - The industrial metals sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Electric Alloy and North Copper hitting the daily limit [4] - CPO concept stocks surged, with companies such as Lian Te Technology and Huada Technology reaching their daily limits [6] - Stocks related to the "horse" theme experienced notable increases, with Yuma Technology and other related stocks hitting the daily limit [8] Banking Sector - The banking sector faced declines, with several banks including Qingdao Bank and Hangzhou Bank dropping over 4% [11] - Overall, the banking stocks showed a downward trend, impacting market sentiment [11] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector experienced significant losses, with Zhun Oil shares hitting the limit down and other companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Beiken Energy also declining sharply [12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on breakthrough opportunities in technology-related fields such as semiconductors and components, as well as dividend sectors like banking and insurance [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Metal Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the industrial metals sector, particularly aluminum and copper, with projections for 2025 and beyond [1][3][9]. Key Points on Aluminum - **Supply Growth**: Aluminum supply is expected to grow by 0-1% in the second half of 2025, maintaining a tight overall supply situation. The annual production capacity growth is forecasted at 1.2%-1.3%, primarily driven by Yunnan province [1][4]. - **Profitability**: The profitability of electrolytic aluminum has significantly improved, with pre-tax profits nearing 4,000 yuan per ton [1][6]. - **Demand Dynamics**: Domestic demand remains strong, particularly in transportation and power electronics, with a 4% year-on-year increase in consumption from January to April 2025 [1][9]. - **Market Gaps**: A projected aluminum deficit of 250,000 tons is anticipated due to a decline in real estate completions [10]. - **Price Volatility**: Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate around 3,000 yuan, influenced by high dependency on foreign supply and geopolitical factors affecting Guinea's mining licenses [11][12]. Key Points on Copper - **Supply Adjustments**: Initial expectations of a 3% growth in copper supply have been revised down to approximately 1% due to maintenance and shutdowns at major mines, leading to a significant increase in LME spot prices [3][4][8]. - **Production Trends**: Global electrolytic copper production is projected to grow by 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with domestic growth reaching 11% [3][16]. - **Demand Growth**: Domestic apparent copper consumption increased by 14% year-on-year, driven by sectors such as electricity, home appliances, and transportation [21]. - **Market Tightness**: A supply gap of 180,000 tons is expected for 2025, with a further reduction to 150,000 tons in 2026, indicating a tight balance in the market [23]. Investment Recommendations - **Aluminum Sector**: Recommended companies include Chalco, Zhongfu, Hongqiao, and Tianshan [5]. - **Copper Sector**: Recommended companies include Wenkang, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, Jinchuan, and China Mining [5][8]. Additional Insights - **Geopolitical Impact**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may affect aluminum imports from Russia, which currently accounts for 90% of imports [1][7]. - **Recycling and Supply Chain**: The increase in domestic old copper supply by 12% and a 4% increase in imported old copper indicate a shift towards recycling amid supply chain pressures [17][18]. - **Future Price Projections**: The bottom price for copper is estimated to be around 7,000 USD, with potential for significant price movements if macroeconomic conditions change, such as a shift to looser monetary policies [14][26][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the aluminum and copper markets, along with strategic investment recommendations.

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by increased risk aversion due to global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data from the US. Additionally, the temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo has tightened supply, making precious metals and rare earths key investment opportunities [5][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.6.09-2025.6.20) - The Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 0.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index and ranking 5th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. Energy metals (1.54%) and metal new materials (0.90%) saw the highest gains, while precious metals and small metals changed by 0.54% and -2.00%, respectively [2][14]. Precious Metals - As of June 20, COMEX gold closed at $3,384.40 per ounce, up 1.60% over the past two weeks and 26.70% year-to-date. COMEX silver closed at $35.95 per ounce, down 0.50% over the same period but up 19.89% year-to-date. The report suggests that geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties will continue to support gold prices, while silver may have further upside potential due to its undervaluation [3][22][25]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,945 per ton, up 1.53% over the past two weeks and 14.50% year-to-date. LME aluminum closed at $2,529 per ton, up 4.01% over the same period but down 0.28% year-to-date. The report indicates that copper's supply-demand dynamics remain supportive, while aluminum faces challenges from seasonal demand fluctuations [29][32]. Small Metals - As of June 20, black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 172,000 CNY per ton, down 0.58% over the past two weeks but up 20.28% year-to-date. LME tin closed at $32,690 per ton, up 1.35% over the same period and 15.82% year-to-date. The report notes that the antimony market is experiencing weak demand, while tungsten prices may trend higher due to stable consumption [35][36]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was reported at 182.17, down 0.70% over the past two weeks but up 11.23% year-to-date. The report highlights a mixed performance in rare earth prices, with light rare earths showing slight declines while others remain stable due to steady demand from traditional sectors [46][47]. Energy Metals - As of June 20, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 234,500 CNY per ton, down 0.02% over the past two weeks but up 36.73% year-to-date. The report emphasizes the impact of the extended cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo on supply dynamics [53][56].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals sector as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited strategic metal reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, coupled with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries. Geopolitical tensions and China's export controls on tungsten, antimony, and rare earths have exacerbated supply-demand conflicts, leading to a sustained upward price trend for small metals [12][15][17] - In May 2025, the overall non-ferrous metals sector saw a moderate increase, with precious metals (gold) and strategic small metals (rare earths, tungsten) leading the gains. The geopolitical situation has intensified, causing a decline in risk appetite in international financial markets, which has driven gold prices higher as a traditional safe-haven asset [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Focus Areas: Supply-Demand Conflicts and Geopolitical Impact - The small metals market is currently hot, with prices rising due to limited reserves and high extraction difficulty. The rapid growth in demand from new energy and military sectors, along with geopolitical tensions, has intensified supply-demand conflicts [12][15] 2. Small Metals Price Increase Cycle and Strategic Resource Valuation - Small metals are experiencing a significant price increase, with tungsten concentrate prices reaching historical highs of 169,000 yuan/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increasing by 57.02%. The main drivers include limited reserves, high extraction costs, and increased demand from various industries [15][17] 3. Market Trends: Macroeconomic Sentiment Recovery and Non-Ferrous Sector Growth - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a recovery in May, with small metals leading the way. The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and China's economic recovery [12][46] 4. Policy Changes: Global Policies on Key Mineral Resource Protection and Development - Multiple countries are implementing policies to protect and develop key mineral resources, including the U.S. signing a "mineral agreement" with Ukraine and South Africa launching a critical minerals strategy. China is also taking measures to combat smuggling of strategic minerals [13][27] 5. Key Industry and Company Developments - Harmony Gold's acquisition of Macarthur Copper for $1.03 billion and other significant mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector are noted. Companies are using diverse capital strategies to strengthen resource control and optimize capacity [14][15]

Market Overview - The US stock market has shown positive performance recently, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Dow Jones reaching its highest level since early March [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 13, driven by expectations of liquidity easing following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point level on June 24, with a trading volume of 1.41 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market signal [3] - Technical indicators such as RSI rising above 50, narrowing MACD bars, and KDJ golden cross suggest improving market sentiment [3] - However, significant selling pressure exists around the 3400-point mark, with historical failures to break through due to insufficient volume and trapped positions [3] Capital Flow - Northbound capital recorded a net sell of 6.304 billion yuan on June 24, with significant sell-offs in electronics, utilities, and home appliances, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage saw net inflows [4] - Main capital flows indicate net inflows in banking, industrial metals, and real estate development, while sectors like semiconductors and computer applications experienced net outflows, reflecting a shift in capital between high and low-performing sectors [4] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan on June 24, releasing liquidity into the market [4] - A joint initiative from six departments introduced a 500 billion yuan loan program to support service consumption and the elderly care industry, which is expected to benefit related sectors in the long term [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in supporting technological innovation, potentially boosting confidence in the tech sector [4] Geopolitical Context - High-level trade talks between China and the US have resumed, which may help ease trade tensions [4] - The ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is in effect, but ongoing conflicts warrant attention to geopolitical risks that could impact the market [4] Investment Strategy - A-shares are expected to continue an upward trend on June 25, but attention is needed around the 3400-point resistance level [5] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on sectors supported by policy, such as consumption, technology, and elderly care, which have strong growth potential [5] - Short-term investors should monitor volume changes, with a sustained increase to 1.5 trillion yuan or more indicating potential for further market breakthroughs [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity prices [1]. - The significant growth in profits is attributed to the increase in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The company is accelerating the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, having shut down a 721,000-ton production line and replacing it with new capacity [2]. - The company is positioned for significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, while also benefiting from a notable undervaluation as a Hong Kong-listed stock [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 150.949 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.676 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8 times in 2025, decreasing to 5.9 times by 2027 [4].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic and tactical value of investing in the rare earth sector, viewing it as a critical asset in the long-term geopolitical competition between China and the US [2][15]. - It argues that the current market fluctuations in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors are largely driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term fundamentals [8][14]. - The report highlights the unique competitive advantages of China's rare earth refining and separation capabilities, which are difficult for foreign entities to replicate [15][16]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The domestic supply of rare earths is expected to remain stable, with a concentration of production among two major rare earth groups, while illegal mining activities are being strictly controlled [16]. - China's ability to manage both domestic and international rare earth resources is strengthening, which may further enhance the strategic importance of these resources [16] . Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to grow significantly due to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [17]. - Recent approvals for export applications have alleviated previous concerns regarding demand for magnetic materials, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17]. Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in consumption [18][23]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, both on a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar production is diverging, with long process margins showing slight improvement [29][34]. Group 5: New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a substantial year-over-year increase, while hydroxide production experienced a decline [41]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, reflecting strong demand in the market [45]. - Prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have generally declined, indicating a potential softening in the market [51]. Group 6: Industrial Metals - The report notes a continuous decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices [62]. - Global refined copper production has increased, with slight improvements in smelting fees [62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are driving an increase in risk aversion, which supports the rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) has risen over 1.1%, reflecting the strengthening of precious metals due to heightened risk aversion [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), tracked by the gold stock ETF, includes companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, providing a representative performance of the gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate has led to continued fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with strong long-term support for copper prices [1] - In the energy metals sector, cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, while strategic metals like neodymium oxide have seen a price recovery from a low point [1] - The black tungsten concentrate price has reached a historical high, indicating a potential revaluation opportunity for strategic minor metals like antimony and tungsten amid supply chain autonomy trends [1]