Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 185.02 points, a decrease of 0.7%, closing at 26,159.12 points [1] - The H-share Index dropped by 80.39 points, closing at 9,290.34 points, a decline of 0.86% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 90.85 points, closing at 6,167.06 points, down 1.45% [1] - The total turnover on the main board was HKD 294.56 billion [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings decreased by 0.86%, closing at HKD 635.5 [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by 1.17%, closing at HKD 437.4 [1] - China Mobile declined by 0.29%, closing at HKD 85.15 [1] - HSBC Holdings increased by 1.31%, closing at HKD 108.6 [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings fell by 0.54%, closing at HKD 36.54 [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties decreased by 1.07%, closing at HKD 92.45 [1] - Henderson Land Development dropped by 1.44%, closing at HKD 27.3 [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China remained unchanged, closing at HKD 4.28 [1] - China Construction Bank rose by 0.67%, closing at HKD 7.5 [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.7%, closing at HKD 5.78 [1] - Ping An Insurance fell by 1.23%, closing at HKD 52.3 [1] - China Life Insurance decreased by 0.56%, closing at HKD 21.48 [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.25%, closing at HKD 4.07 [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation decreased by 0.28%, closing at HKD 7.07 [1] - CNOOC Limited dropped by 0.68%, closing at HKD 18.91 [1]

Group 1 - The contractor's HSE (Health, Safety, Environment) training certification has expired, leading to immediate disqualification from participation [1] - The management area has implemented a comprehensive control system to shift contractor safety management from reactive to proactive measures, ensuring key projects progress as planned [1] - The core of the "three controls" management approach is to make safety a standard requirement for contractor operations [1] Group 2 - The management area has organized specialized training for contractor supervisors, covering seven operational monitoring requirements, responsibilities, safety measures, and personnel credential verification [2] - Qualified supervisors will be included in the contractor monitoring personnel list, and only those on the list can perform monitoring duties [2] - Any violation of safety regulations by construction personnel will result in immediate dismissal and inclusion in a "blacklist" [2]

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index decreased by 1.21%, while the chemical machinery index increased by 2.90% [1] - The pharmaceutical index fell by 1.36%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index dropped by 2.50% [1] - The oil processing index declined by 2.22%, the oil extraction index decreased by 3.17%, and the oil trading index fell by 1.46% [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - As of September 19, the WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.68 per barrel, down 0.02% from September 12 [1] - The Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.68 per barrel, down 0.46% from the previous Friday [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases were liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), isooctyl acrylate (up 7.47%), acrylic acid (up 5.04%), calcium carbide (up 4.94%), and MMA (up 4.51%) [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price decreases were vitamin E (down 10.00%), epichlorohydrin (down 6.44%), sulfuric acid (down 4.94%), p-nitrochlorobenzene (down 4.62%), and dichloromethane (down 3.64%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies were Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%), Hongda Explosive (up 22.93%), Sanwei Co. (up 22.53%), Zhongshi Technology (up 21.57%), and Jinghua New Materials (up 18.94%) [2] - The bottom five performing listed chemical companies were Runyang Technology (down 11.48%), Lafang Cosmetics (down 10.43%), Wankai New Materials (down 10.42%), Jiaao Environmental Protection (down 10.25%), and Shilong Industrial (down 9.41%) [2]

Core Insights - The successful production of the Liuhua 11-1/4-1 oil field secondary development project marks a significant achievement for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in overcoming the challenges associated with developing reef limestone oil fields, which are known for their high difficulty level [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The Liuhua 11-1/4-1 oil field secondary development project has produced over 700,000 tons of crude oil in its first year, exceeding expectations [2] - This oil field is China's first deepwater oil field and has the largest proven geological reserves of reef limestone oil in the country [2] Group 2: Technical Achievements - CNOOC has developed a series of water control and oil stabilization technologies specifically for offshore reef limestone oil fields, which have significantly improved the recoverable reserves and recovery rates [2] - The Liuhua 11-1 oil field has produced over 20 million tons of crude oil since its commissioning in 1996, but the extraction rate remains low at only 12.84%, indicating that approximately 140 million tons of crude oil reserves are still untapped beneath the seabed [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is to provide short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities and financial products, including analysis of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and market sentiment [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Kuwait's crude oil production will increase to 2559000 barrels per day from October, and OPEC+ will increase production by 137000 barrels per day in October. The global crude oil supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is advisable to sell on rallies [1]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Due to typhoon - affected tapping and insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand after pre - holiday restocking, it should be treated with a neutral view [2]. Steel and Related Products - **Steel**: In the "Golden September", steel demand is slowly recovering. With appropriate production control by building material steel mills, the supply - demand relationship has slightly improved. Before the National Day, steel mills need to replenish stocks, and the cost supports steel prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is limited [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume fluctuates at a high level, and the arrival volume increases. Iron water production may rise, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Iron ore prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [4]. - **Coke**: After the second - round price cut, coking profits turn negative, and coke production slightly decreases. Iron water production increases, and the demand for coke is well - supported. The pre - holiday restocking of the middle and lower reaches provides demand support, and the spot price stabilizes. Attention should be paid to the iron water production in the peak season [5]. Livestock and Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The national pig price is weakly stable. The market's resistance to price drops increases, and the decline slows down. However, the pressure on farmers to sell remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, farmers' willingness to hold prices increases. Short - term long positions can be tried, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [6]. - **Soybean**: With the increase in the supply of new soybeans, the supply pressure in the market will increase. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and domestic soybean prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [7]. Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, palm oil production and exports in September decreased. The international palm oil market has high inventories, and the demand in India and China is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: As PX maintenance devices restart and short - process efficiency is good, the supply increases. PTA maintenance devices resume work, and the terminal recovery is limited. PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the overall supply is relatively loose. It should be treated with a weak - neutral view [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production decreases from a high level, downstream demand recovers, and imports are expected to remain high in September. Port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is relatively stable. Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases. The demand from the float glass industry is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - **Polypropylene**: Polypropylene production is relatively stable, new production capacity pressure is released, and the overall supply is abundant. Commercial inventory decreases, and demand is slowly improving. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [13]. Financial Products - **Treasury Bonds**: China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - centered approach. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the bond market may be slightly positive, but the upward space is limited. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Geopolitical risks and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to gold. The independence of the Fed brings uncertainties. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards [14]. - **Silver**: Multiple Fed officials' speeches on interest rate cuts affect the market. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts promotes the rise of precious metals. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the impact of gold on silver [14].

Group 1 - The Invesco Great Wall CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (520990) closed down 1.58% on September 22, with a trading volume of 154 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of September 19, 2024, the fund had 4.308 billion shares and a total size of 4.373 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.00% increase in shares and a 24.88% increase in size year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with returns of 17.76% and 4.19% respectively during their management periods [2] - The fund's top holdings include China Mobile, China Petroleum, COSCO Shipping, CNOOC, China Shenhua, Sinopec, China Telecom, China Unicom, China Merchants Bank, and China Coal Energy, with varying holding percentages [2][3] Group 3 - The top holdings and their respective percentages are as follows: - China Mobile: 10.83% - China Petroleum: 10.55% - COSCO Shipping: 9.66% - CNOOC: 9.03% - China Shenhua: 8.09% - Sinopec: 7.66% - China Telecom: 4.85% - China Unicom: 3.68% - China Merchants Bank: 2.63% - China Coal Energy: 2.57% [3]

中曼石油在2025年上海辖区上市公司集体接待日暨中报业绩说明会活动上回答投资者提问称，公司温宿 项目逐步进入稳产期，产量会存在一定时期内的波动，公司将持续做好老井措施和新井部署，为温宿项 目稳产打下基础。 更多集体接待日详情，请点击：https://rs.p5w.net/html/175611728073329.shtml ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].

Group 1 - Shenzhen has hundreds of scientists and scholars listed in the "2025 Global Top 2% Scientists List," indicating the city's growing academic strength and international influence [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully produced over 700,000 tons of crude oil from the Liuhua 11-1/4-1 oil field, marking a significant achievement in deep-water oil field development [2] - Guangzhou plans to launch low-altitude sightseeing routes along the Pearl River within three years, enhancing tourism and boosting related industries [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government has initiated the first meeting of the Northern Metropolis Development and Operation Group, which aims to drive industrial restructuring and multi-engine development in the region [4] - On September 19, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,070.86 points, down 0.04% [5] - The top gainers in the Shenzhen market included Yuma Technology, Green Island Wind, and Tianshan Electronics, with increases of 20.02%, 20.01%, and 19.98% respectively, while the biggest losers were *ST Dongtong, Haon Automotive Electric, and Zhongqi Automotive, with declines of 14.81%, 11.92%, and 11.79% respectively [6]

智通财经APP获悉，受美联储降息提振，美国股市上周收于历史新高。未来一周，美联储官员的讲话将 成为市场关注的焦点，新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔分别于周一和周二发表 讲话，其他FOMC票委也将密集发声。 将于周五公布的美国通胀数据也备受关注。市场预计美联储青睐的通胀指标8月核心PCE物价指数环比 增长率放缓至0.2%，而年增长率仍为2.9%，高于美联储的目标水平。 上周，参议院民主党和共和党分别阻止了对方提出的将政府资金延长至本月底的提议。这些提议原本旨 在为美国国会争取更多时间来制定一项支出法案。 投资者还将密切关注周五公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以及抵押贷款利率。房地美称，抵押贷款 利率已接近一年来的最低水平。 重要财报方面，投资者将关注美光科技(MU.US)的人工智能需求以及最新营收指引，好市多(COST.US) 财报则是衡量消费者支出状况的重要指标之一。 Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US)、汽车地带(AZO.US)、信达思(CTAS.US)和埃森哲(ACN.US)等公司也将公布 财报。 美联储降息引发股市狂欢 投资者几乎确信美联储上周会降息。无论如何，他们都对 ...