Core Viewpoint - China Railway (00390) has seen a stock price increase of over 5%, currently at 4.27 HKD with a trading volume of 175 million HKD, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in its resource sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Railway operates five mines, holding leading positions in copper, cobalt, and molybdenum reserves within the industry [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company from its subsidiary, China Railway Resources, is projected to be 3 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 11% of the company's overall profit [1] - The resource segment is expected to generate a net profit of 3.3 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting growth potential [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Guosen Securities suggests that if mineral resources are developed as a core business, there is potential for acquiring new mines to accelerate growth [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the resource segment's ongoing development will enhance profitability and provide resilience against market cycles [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zijin Mining Industry Overview - Geopolitical easing has not reduced global asset reallocation, with expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve chairman candidate, which is favorable for non-ferrous metals. Demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to resonate upwards over the next five years [2][4] - Recent funding trends show a return to net inflows, with gold and copper experiencing net outflows while other sectors saw net inflows. A consolidation phase is anticipated due to seasonal factors and high prices, with a potential upward trend post-Chinese New Year [2][5][6] Key Points on Metals Gold - As of the end of 2025, investment-grade gold will account for only 3% of global disposable financial assets, significantly below the historical peak of 5%. This indicates substantial room for gold allocation, which could drive prices higher [2][7] Copper - Electrolytic copper demand is weak, with inventory accumulation noted. However, its financial attributes support copper prices, and downstream replenishment demand is emerging, suggesting limited downside risk for copper prices [2][8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are low, with stable demand benefiting from export tax rebates and significant growth in photovoltaic demand. The supply-demand balance is relatively strong compared to copper [2][9][10] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing robust demand despite the seasonal downturn, with battery companies actively seeking exports. Supply remains stable, and prices are expected to maintain high levels [2][11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices have risen from 520,000-530,000 to around 670,000, an increase of approximately 20%. Supply is constrained due to national quota controls, while downstream demand continues to grow, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance [2][12] Company-Specific Insights on Zijin Mining - Zijin Mining's profit forecast has been significantly revised upwards, with expected net profit of approximately 80.8 billion by 2026. The company is well-positioned for future growth due to a complete management system and ongoing mine upgrades [2][15] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth and profitability, with copper production projected to reach 1.2 million tons and gold production at 105 tons [2][16] - The valuation of Zijin Mining is expected to benefit from its strong growth potential and liquidity, with a target market value revised to 1.6 trillion, reflecting a 20% valuation premium [2][17] - Zijin Mining has completed five resource acquisition projects in the past two years, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity. Continued acquisitions in 2026 could further strengthen its market competitiveness [2][18] Conclusion - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals, particularly for Zijin Mining, is positive, with strong demand projections and strategic growth through acquisitions. The company is expected to capitalize on favorable market conditions and maintain a leading position in the industry [2][15][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD), reaching a 16-month high of 0.6931, driven by hawkish expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), commodity support, and policy divergence between Australia and the US [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Economic Factors - The RBA's hawkish stance is a key support factor, with the central bank maintaining a 3.6% benchmark interest rate and indicating no plans for rate cuts, even considering rate hikes in 2026 [2]. - Market expectations for rate hikes are rising, with a 27% probability for February and nearly 50% for March, with forecasts suggesting rates could rise to 3.85% [2]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Australia enhances the AUD's appeal, as the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 75 basis points by 2025 and potentially 2-3 more times in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Commodity and Economic Support - Commodity prices, particularly copper and iron ore, are providing support for the AUD, with copper prices expected to rise due to demand from new energy and AI infrastructure [2]. - China's economic growth, projected at around 5%, continues to support Australian resource demand, benefiting the AUD [2]. - Australia's economy shows resilience, with over 60,000 full-time jobs added in December and improvements in unemployment and labor participation rates, despite pressures in consumption and construction sectors [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for AUD/USD indicates a clear bullish trend, with a weekly inverted head and shoulders pattern and a breakout above short-term moving averages [3]. - Key resistance is identified at 0.6931, with a target of 0.7000 if this level is surpassed; support levels are at 0.6900, 0.6800, and 0.6712 [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts the AUD/USD will reach 0.69 by the third quarter, with general expectations for the annual exchange rate to shift higher [3].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% to 4136.16 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.79% and the ChiNext Index gained 0.63%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.45% at 26749.51 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.62% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.51%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 240.9 billion HKD[1] Currency and Trade Tensions - The Japanese yen rebounded strongly, nearing the 160 mark against the USD, marking its largest single-day gain since August of the previous year[8] - U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian exports to the U.S. if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China[8] ETF and Market Sentiment - Continuous outflows from broad-based ETFs in China have raised concerns about potential reductions in state-owned fund holdings, leading to increased interest in small-cap stocks[12] - From January 15 to 22, approximately 67.5 billion USD was sold off from 14 ETF products by the central government, indicating a significant market impact[12] Corporate Developments - Dongpeng Beverage plans to raise up to 10.141 billion HKD through an IPO, with a share price set at 248 HKD, representing a 12.5% discount compared to its A-share price[10] - BYD aims for overseas sales of 1.3 million vehicles in 2026, a nearly 24% increase from last year's 1.05 million deliveries[14]

Group 1 - The overall market trend for 2026 is expected to be optimistic, driven by a combination of fundamental, liquidity, sentiment, and policy factors [1][2] - China's GDP has surpassed 140 trillion, indicating a strong economic achievement that supports market performance [1] - Despite a recent cooling in market sentiment, the overall bullish sentiment remains high, and the market is currently undergoing a necessary adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that previous bull markets have been characterized by short bursts of activity followed by long periods of adjustment, which negatively impacted investor experiences [3] - The current market environment is being guided towards healthier long-term development through measures such as increased margin requirements and regulatory support [4] - The AI sector remains a key focus for 2026, with strong growth expected in upstream computing power and semiconductor equipment due to expansion and rising demand [5][6] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory in 2026, focusing on new drug platforms and expanding applications for existing treatments [6]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a strong upward trend last week, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and continued global central bank gold purchases, with international gold prices approaching $5000 and silver prices surpassing $100 [1] - The macro environment for the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to remain generally favorable through 2026, with potential for continued upward movement [2] - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to provide sustained support for gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Demand for copper, aluminum, and lithium is expected to strengthen, while supply constraints are likely to persist, leading to sustained price increases for these commodities [2] - Strategic minor metals such as tungsten, tantalum, and antimony are also positioned for investment opportunities due to supply-demand mismatches and geopolitical factors [3] - The demand for minor metals is significantly increasing due to their critical role in high-tech industries such as AI, military, and semiconductors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Suggest holding short - term copper long positions, setting trailing stop - profits, and considering it a good opportunity to enter the market after a full correction. Remain optimistic about copper in the long - term [6]. - In the short - term, there is a fierce battle around the 100,000 - yuan mark for copper. The market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to set trailing stop - profits for short - term long positions and pay attention to the support of the 30 - day moving average. Long - term long positions should be held firmly [6]. - In the medium - to long - term, copper is an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation. With the tight supply of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, the outlook for copper remains positive [6]. - Short - term Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of [98,500, 105,500] yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of [12,500, 13,500] [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The US economic data is strong, but the inflation data is not enough to prompt the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. The US Q3 real GDP quarterly growth rate was revised up to 4.4%, and the core PCE inflation remained at 2.9% [10]. - China achieved a 5% GDP growth target in 2025. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The 1 - year LPR is 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, remaining unchanged for 8 consecutive months [13]. - Long - term, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with US Treasury yields. Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset, and the gold - copper ratio is at a new high, indicating that copper has room for a catch - up [16]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economy**: The US dollar index fell 1.09% this week to 98.29 as of January 22. The core CPI in December increased by only 0.2% month - on - month, lower than market expectations. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in January. Trump's remarks about the Fed chair have raised concerns about its independence [10]. - **Chinese Economy**: China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan. The real estate market is weak, with housing prices falling. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [13]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Ore Supply**: Mining giant mergers are accelerating. Rio Tinto is in talks to acquire Glencore. Some mines have production disruptions, while others increase production. In 2025, China's imports of copper concentrates reached a record high. The TC of copper concentrates is at a low level, and the market expects a tight supply in 2026 [48][49]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In December 2025, domestic copper smelting started at 87.34%, and the output was 117.81 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. It is expected that the output in January 2026 will be 116.36 tons, a decrease of 1.45 tons compared with December. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased in 2025 [50]. - **Scrap Copper**: The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the refined - scrap price difference has risen to a medium - to high level. The annual import of recycled copper in 2025 is expected to be about 230 tons, a slight increase of 2.24% year - on - year [50]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Industrial Demand**: In December 2025, the copper product industry's operating rate was 59.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%. The operating rates of different copper product sub - industries showed different trends. The overall demand is affected by high copper prices [70]. - **Terminal Demand**: Green copper demand is on the rise, with high copper consumption in renewable energy and new energy vehicles. The demand for copper in the power industry is also strong, and the government's policy of replacing old household appliances with new ones has promoted the demand for copper in the home appliance industry [72]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In the short - term, the copper market is in a high - level shock due to the fierce battle between long and short positions. The high inventory during the off - season drags down copper prices. It is recommended to set trailing stop - profits for short - term long positions and pay attention to the support of the 30 - day moving average [6]. - In the medium - to long - term, copper is an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation. With the tight supply of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, the outlook for copper remains positive [6].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report, dated January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. The main reasons were the upward revision of the US GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, the mild performance of the core PCE in November, and the robust consumer spending. Trump's announcement of deploying the US fleet to blockade Iran further fermented the global risk - aversion sentiment. The continuous new highs of gold and silver limited the downward adjustment space of copper prices. AI and new - energy transformation provided strong impetus for the refined copper consumption market. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern at the mine end continued, the output of domestic smelters declined marginally, the global visible inventory continued to rise, the domestic trade spot premium increased, and the C - structure of the near - month contract widened [2][7]. - Overall, the further fermentation of overseas risk - aversion sentiment continuously boosted the valuation center of copper prices. The better - than - expected performance of the US economic fundamentals made the market confident about the future expansion of the global refined copper consumption market. Fundamentally, the resumption of production of overseas interrupted mines was slow. The global refined copper continued to accumulate inventory, but the supply in the distribution areas was still tight. New trends were gradually replacing traditional drivers as the mainstream in the refined copper consumption market. It was expected that copper prices would continue to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the latest interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve in January [2][10] Summary by Directory I. Market Data - **Price Changes**: LME copper rose from $12,808.50 to $13,128.50 per ton, a 2.50% increase; COMEX copper rose from 584.85 to 593.7 cents per pound, a 1.51% increase; SHFE copper rose from 100,770 to 101,340 yuan per ton, a 0.57% increase; international copper rose from 89,650 to 91,120 yuan per ton, a 1.64% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.87 to 7.72. The LME spot premium decreased from $61.52 to - $66.06 per ton, a - 207.38% change. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from - 125 to - 180 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 23, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 1.067624 million tons. LME copper inventory increased by 28,125 tons (19.59%); COMEX inventory increased by 19,691 short tons (3.63%); SHFE inventory increased by 12,422 tons (5.82%); Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 7,800 tons (7.83%) [6] II. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The US core PCE in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and personal income increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating robust consumer spending. The annualized growth rate of the US GDP in Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%. The IMF raised the US economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4%. Trump's actions and statements on geopolitical issues and the Federal Reserve's policy and personnel appointment further fermented the market risk - aversion sentiment, and the new highs of gold and silver boosted the copper price valuation center. In China, the industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with different growth rates in various industries [7][8] - **Supply - demand aspect**: Rio Tinto's copper production in Q4 increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the domestic copper production was basically flat month - on - month. The import of copper concentrates in November reached 2.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. In terms of demand, traditional industries were affected by high copper prices at the beginning of the year, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaics, AI data centers, and robots showed good prospects [9] III. Industry News - **Rio Tinto**: Its Q4 copper production increased by 5%. The expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia offset the decline in the Escondida copper mine in Chile. It is in key acquisition negotiations with Glencore and must make a formal offer by February 5 [11] - **Lundin Mining**: Due to the decline in the underground mining efficiency of its Candelaria copper mine in Chile, it lowered its copper and gold production guidance for 2026. The company's stock price fell by more than 10% on Thursday [12] - **Capstone Copper**: A copper mine in northern Chile has been shut down due to a nearly three - week labor strike, intensifying the global copper supply shortage [13] IV. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][16][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Jinhui Co., Ltd. (stock code: sh603132) experienced a trading halt with a price increase of 10.02% to 17.7 yuan, resulting in a total market capitalization of 17.927 billion yuan and a trading volume of 91.8165 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company is undergoing a governance structure transformation, revising over 30 management systems, eliminating the supervisory board, and enhancing the board of directors' functions to modernize governance and improve efficiency [1] - Jinhui Mining has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Haosen Mining, adding 56.6 square kilometers of mining rights and discovering medium to large-sized mineral deposits, significantly increasing resource reserves [1] - The management team, consisting of 15 directors and supervisors, collectively increased their holdings by 6.33 million yuan, nearing the planned upper limit, indicating confidence in the company's future [1] - The influx of capital into the stock on the day of the trading halt may have been influenced by these factors, suggesting a combination of technical and fundamental positive impacts [1]

1月26日，香港恒生指数开盘涨0.35%，恒生科技指数涨0.05%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 恒生指数 | 26844.04c 94.53 | 0.35% | | HSTECH | | 5801.15c 3.14 0.05% | | | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 15924.23c -12.84 - -0.08% | | | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9188.19c 27.38 0.30% | | | HSCI | 恒生综合指数 | 4135.95c 13.37 0.32% | | | 代码 | 名称 | 规价 | 浙先 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 73.750 | -3.050 | -3.97% | | 9888 | 百度集团-SW | 155.100 | -5.400 | -3.36% | | 9626 | 哔哩哔哩-W | 253.800 | -8.800 | -3.35% | | 1024 | ...