证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...

（来源：沈阳日报） 与此同时，沈阳市内多家商场、酒店推出"宠物友好"政策，宠物乐园、休息区等配套设施不断涌现，进 一步释放了人宠共处消费场景的潜力。在铁西区万象汇一家奶茶店，记者看到了专门的宠物玩耍区、休 息区，并提供食用奶油、零食、水碗等，不时有消费者带着宠物前来，共享惬意时光。 宠物正在撬动千亿乃至万亿级别的消费市场。《2025年中国宠物行业白皮书》数据显示，2024年中国城 镇宠物（犬猫）消费市场规模突破3000亿元，同比增长7.5%。毕马威发布的《2025年中国宠物行业市 场报告》预计，中国宠物市场规模将于2025年突破8114亿元，两年后有望突破1万亿元。在技术升级的 推动下，定时喂食机、智能猫厕所等高端智能产品，也开辟出便捷养宠的新赛道。今年天猫双11期间， 宠物追踪器等智能穿戴设备同比增长1560%，智能玩具增长1470%，智能饮水机、储粮桶等基础设备增 速均超160%，伴宠机器人销售额同比增长210%。，年增1.2万家企业 宠物经济在沈蓬勃"起势"） 转自：沈阳日报 "它用一生陪伴我，我也要尽可能对它好。"研究生毕业后到沈工作的贾小姐，把饲养的一只博美犬当成 了家人，狗窝、狗笼、玩具、罐头、保 ...

但多数宠业从业 者面临两大痛 点：一是看不清 市场增长新方 向，错失细分赛 道机遇；二是不 懂新媒体运营逻 辑，难以通过抖 音、小红书、视 频号精准触达目 明日开讲 | 媒体 +大咖教您破解 宠业流量密码， 玩转抖音小红书 _南方+_南方 plus 随着"它经济"崛 起，宠物消费从 基础温饱向健康 医疗、品质生 活、情感陪伴全 面升级，万亿市 场蓝海持续扩 容。 标客群。 为破解行业痛 点，赋能宠业人 把握发展红利， 12月20日14:30- 17:00，由南方 农村报主办，农 语（广州）现代 农业有限公司、 广州大洋教育科 技股份有限公司 联合协办的大湾 区宠物行业年度 盛典，重磅启幕 公益直播专场！ 本次直播将聚焦 市场趋势与新媒 体实操，为宠业 从业者搭建高效 学习交流平台， 助力破局增长。 01 活动亮点 1、双维度深度 拆解：既解读宠 物经济市场纵深 与未来增长点， 又手把手教学三 大平台账号搭建 全流程，从宏观 趋势到实操落地 一站式覆盖。 2、实战派大咖 坐镇：两位拥有 丰富行业经验的 讲师联手，用真 实案例与落地方 法赋能宠业人。 3、精准解决痛 点：针对宠业门 店引流难、账号 起号慢、运营踩 ...

为打通销售前端，宠物园区引入电商直播平台，借助数字化渠道，为产业链上下游企业赋能。据中储发 展（沈阳）物流有限公司相关负责人介绍，截至目前，东北亚宠物交易中心已吸引多家宠物产业上下游 企业入驻，活体宠物电商业务规模化后，预计日运输量达500只，年相关收入有望达到2250万元。配合 宠物寄养、短途运输及宠物食品、用品等后端衍生业务，将形成多元化的收益结构。 东北亚宠物交易中心项目将充分发挥我省在活体资源供给及对日、韩、俄等周边国家跨境渠道方面的优 势。目前，项目投资方——中储发展（沈阳）物流有限公司已与沈阳自贸区签订战略合作协议，推动我 省宠物活体产业带建设。 责编：周艺凝 审核：刘立纲 本报讯 记者刘桐报道 12月16日，记者从沈阳市苏家屯区获悉，东北亚宠物交易中心项目正式启动建 设，其中，宠物园区已完成活体宠物运输全流程标准化试运营。该项目将打造集活体交易、智能仓储、 跨境物流、金融服务与品牌孵化于一体的综合性平台，实现从源头繁育到终端销售、从国内贸易到跨境 流通的全链条整合。 值得一提的是，东北亚宠物交易中心项目正推进省内首个宠物跨境清关场所落户，为国内优质宠物资 源"走出去"和国际知名宠物品牌"引进来" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pet industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the evolution of the pet industry over the past two decades, highlighting the shift from offline to online channels and the transition from distribution to direct sales. The rise of e-commerce has significantly accelerated the growth of domestic pet brands [6][8] - Online channels have become the primary sales avenue for pet food, leveraging e-commerce platforms to rapidly scale and reach mainstream consumers. The emergence of content-driven e-commerce has further enhanced customer acquisition and conversion capabilities [6][42] - Offline channels remain crucial for building trust and providing service-oriented consumption experiences, with professional stores and veterinary clinics playing a key role in offering product experiences and consultations [6][42] - The report emphasizes the need for brands to shift from broad expansion to efficient, lifecycle-focused operations in response to rising customer acquisition costs and market saturation. The competitive landscape is becoming clearer, with leading brands gaining significant advantages over smaller competitors [6][42] Summary by Sections Channel Evolution - The pet industry has undergone significant channel changes, moving from a dealer-dominated offline model to a direct sales online model, driven by e-commerce growth since 2012. The current phase is characterized by content-driven marketing and multi-channel integration [6][8][9] Online Channel Dynamics - Online channels have solidified their position as the largest sales channel in the pet industry, with retail share increasing from 47.7% in 2020 to 59.0% in the first half of 2025. The dominance of major platforms like Taobao and the rapid growth of Douyin highlight the evolving landscape [6][47] - The report notes that online purchasing behavior is heavily influenced by the convenience of buying pet food and treats, while offline spending is concentrated on services like veterinary care and grooming [6][49] Offline Channel Insights - The offline channel structure is diverse, comprising specialized pet stores, supermarkets, veterinary clinics, and other service-oriented businesses. While retail sales are lower due to high costs, offline channels are essential for service delivery and building consumer trust [6][72] - Direct sales through physical stores enhance consumer trust and repeat purchases, while veterinary clinics serve as authoritative channels for brand credibility [6][77] Brand Building and Competitive Strategy - The report identifies efficiency improvement and brand building as core strategies for navigating high costs and market saturation. Brands must focus on establishing trust and enhancing brand recognition to achieve premium pricing in a competitive environment [6][90] - The report highlights the importance of private traffic and refined operations as brands adapt to the evolving market landscape, moving away from reliance on public advertising to building direct connections with consumers [6][117]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——海南封关政策红利全解析：零关税、低个税、投资准入放宽、跨境资金自 由、创业扶持…… （记者 张明双） 2025年1至6月份，天元宠物的营业收入构成为：宠物用品占比50.72%，宠物食品占比46.55%，其他主 营业务占比2.62%，其他业务占比0.11%。 截至发稿，天元宠物市值为38亿元。 每经AI快讯，天元宠物（SZ 301335，收盘价：29.68元）12月18日晚间发布公告称，公司第四届第十一 次董事会会议于2025年12月18日在浙江省杭州市临平区宁桥大道291号天元宠物鸿旺园区9号楼召开。会 议审议了《关于补选公司第四届董事会审计委员会委员的议案》等文件。 ...

今日（12.18），大消费板块回调，消费ETF（159928）收跌0.5%，全天成交额2.4亿元！资金再度逆市涌入，全天获1400万份净申购，近5日累计"吸金"超3 亿元！ 聚焦大消费板块，估值性价比仍极具吸引力。截至12月17日，消费ETF（159928）标的指数市盈率TTM为19.4，处于近10年3.17%分位点，比近10年历史上 近97%的时间便宜，估值性价比更高！ 年底将近，市场风格将如何演绎？信达证券指出，每年Q4存在基于投资者配置思路变化的季节性规律，容易成为风格变化的高发期，特别是12月市场风格 更容易偏向低估值。（来源：信达证券20251109《年底容易成为风格变化的高发期》） 【2026年新消费如何看？】 犒赏经济概念今日上涨。消息面上，12月17日，高层发表文章《何为"犒赏经济"》，所谓"犒赏经济"，是指消费者在面对工作生活压力或特定的心理需求 时，通过购买价格在承受范围内的非必需品或体验服务，以获取即时性愉悦感、自我确认感和心理疗愈的一种经济活动。例如，上班族在回家路上购买一份 精致的甜点、大学生考试结束后抢购一张演唱会门票，这种消费行为越来越成为时下年轻人的选择，也是观察当前我国消费市 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in sales of Durex, with a 50% drop in 2020 and a 40% industry-wide decline, alongside a 20% decrease in marriage rates, indicating a broader trend of reduced sexual desire in society [2][3]. Group 1: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in traditional sexual products is attributed to a "low-desire society," where consumer spending is shifting towards other areas [3]. - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival saw a negative growth of 7%, and the Double Eleven event has not reported results for four consecutive years [3]. Group 2: Emerging Growth Sectors - Five high-growth sectors are identified as alternatives to traditional sexual products: 1. **Pet Consumption Upgrade**: The pet market is projected to reach 302 billion in 2024, with one pet for every three young people [4]. 2. **Endorphin Economy**: An increase of 200 million new sports participants in the last decade, with a surge in outdoor activities and sports brands [8]. 3. **Aromatherapy**: The fragrance market is valued at 850 million USD in 2023, growing at a rate of 10% annually [8]. 4. **Emotional Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)**: Products that provide immediate emotional satisfaction, such as colorful small items and emotional flower shops [11][12]. 5. **Self-Rescue Economy**: Health-focused products like probiotic cola and health teas are gaining popularity, reflecting a trend of anxiety rather than health consciousness [16][19]. Group 3: Underlying Consumer Needs - The five growth trends reflect the demands of a low-desire society, focusing on feelings of companionship, control, healing, ritual, and safety, which add extra value to products [20]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - For businesses to thrive by 2026, it is crucial to align their development with national strategies, technological trends, globalization perspectives, and user demands [21].

Group 1: Construction Materials Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes "internal strength" and highlights the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the construction materials industry, indicating a shift towards supply-side reforms and potential investment opportunities in the cement sector [2][6][9] - The policy focus has shifted from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," suggesting a more gradual adjustment in demand-side policies for the upcoming year [2][6] - The cement sector remains the most valuable investment area within the construction materials industry, with expectations for a new round of supply-side reform [2][6] Group 2: Cosmetics Raw Materials Industry - The Chinese cosmetics raw materials market is projected to grow from CNY 1147.80 billion in 2019 to CNY 1603.90 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% [10] - The peptide raw materials market is expected to grow from CNY 11.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 21.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.1% [10] - Leading companies in the industry include Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological, with Weiqi holding a 6.6% market share in the peptide raw materials sector [10][11] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The logistics demand in emerging markets is showing robust growth, with Jitu Express achieving record daily collection volumes in Brazil [15][16] - The international air transport association (IATA) forecasts a stable profit outlook for airlines, with a projected total net profit of USD 41 billion in 2026 [18] - The supply chain bottlenecks continue to restrict the growth of the aviation industry, with a structural mismatch between demand and available aircraft [18] Group 4: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The pig price is expected to remain weak, with a recent increase to CNY 11.54/kg, but overall industry losses persist [31][32] - The central economic work conference has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing farmers' income, indicating a shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [32] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" dilemma, with leading companies likely to gain market share as they adapt to changing conditions [33]

2025 年，消费行业正呈现出 "市场两极分化、组织精简重构、行业多点爆发、人才韧性突围" 的全景态势。无论是企业经营者、投资者，还是职场从业者， 读懂这些趋势背后的逻辑，方能在不确定性中把握确定性机遇。本文将基于《2025 消费行业年度趋势报告》核心内容，拆解四大核心趋势，解锁行业未来 发展密码。 一、消费品市场新趋势：分化中孕育新机遇 消费市场的变革从未像今天这样剧烈，"中间价格带" 遇冷，理性消费崛起，银发经济爆发，三大趋势共同勾勒出 2025 年消费市场的核心轮廓。 1. 消费两极分化：升级与降级并行，中间地带承压 疫情后，消费者收入与财富状况的差异进一步放大，直接导致消费市场呈现 "两极分化" 的显著特征 —— 高收入群体追求品质升级，中低收入群体侧重性价 比降级，曾经拥挤的 "中间价格带" 成为竞争最激烈、增长最乏力的区域。 | 品牌 | 价格区间 | 产品特色 | 选址策略 | 净利润 (亿元) * | 同比变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 蜜雪冰城 | 低价(约6元) | 果饮、茶饮、 冰淇淋、咖啡 | 街边店 | 44 | 利润增超40 ...