应对数据安全、算法可靠性等关键挑战。 在近日举办的"大模型金融应用及创新论坛"上，来自金融机构、科技企业和监管机构的众多专家齐聚一 堂，共同探讨了人工智能（AI）和大模型技术在金融领域的应用现状与未来发展方向。 在外资银行方面，东亚银行资讯科技架构平台部总经理张方昌指出，外资银行在AI应用中面临着投入 有限、市场竞争激烈等挑战。然而，通过与全球集团方案的结合和本地化创新，东亚银行在跨境审单等 场景中实现了智能化应用，提升了业务效率和客户体验。 数据、安全与技术难题 尽管应用广泛，金融大模型的深度落地仍面临多重障碍。数据安全与算法可靠性构成首要掣肘。 北京国家金融科技认证中心认证二部负责人段力畑在论坛上发布了《大模型金融应用安全风险测评结 果》。他指出，大模型在金融场景中的应用存在安全能力不足、推理能力与数理计算能力不匹配、幻觉 现象等问题。 中国金融电子化集团党委委员、副总经理潘润红指出，现阶段大模型在金融领域的应用面临数据安全和 算法可靠性等风险、实施路径不明晰、功能边界有待验证、核心场景中的渗透率不足等问题。 论坛聚焦于AI技术如何从降本增效迈向价值创造，以及如何应对数据安全、算法可靠性等关键挑战。 与会 ...

高盛计划要求初级银行家定期展现忠诚，以限制求才若渴的收购公司挖角。该投资银行将要求新的分析 师每三个月要保证一次自己未接受其他公司的工作。（彭博） ...

高盛研究团队近期发布重要报告，重申美联储将于9月启动降息的预期。该机构将降息时间从此前预测的12月提前至9月，并预计全年将实施三次降息，每次 25个基点。同时，高盛上调标普500指数回报预期，预计该指数年底前将再涨6%。 高盛策略师认为，美联储比预期更早、更深入地实施宽松政策，债券收益率低于此前预期，大型股票基本面持续强劲，投资者愿意忽略短期可能出现的盈利 疲软，这些因素共同支撑其将标普500指数远期市盈率预期从20.4倍上调至22倍。该机构维持2025年和2026年每股收益均增长7%的预测，但认为这一预测面 临双向风险。 降息预期提前的核心驱动因素 流动性环境的持续改善为市场上涨提供了额外支撑。高盛团队估计，未来一个月全球股票市场可能有约800亿美元的资金流入。波动性下降有助于资金流动 和市场情绪改善，采用固定选股规则的系统性投资者仍有充足配置资金待入场。历史数据显示，7月通常是美股表现强劲的月份，标普500指数在该月的平均 回报率达到1.67%。 高盛经济学家在最新报告中指出，9月降息的可能性略高于50%。这一预测调整主要基于关税政策影响的重新评估。初步证据显示，今年关税措施对通胀的 冲击程度明显低于此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end LME copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025, while adjusting the baseline forecast for U.S. copper import tariffs from 25% to 50% [1] Group 1 - The risk of copper prices exceeding $10,000 in the third quarter has decreased [1] - U.S. copper import volumes are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks due to increased motivation to preemptively respond to tariff implementation [1]

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街对标普500指数的看涨情绪升温，高盛和美国银行均上调了该指数的目标位，原 因是大型上市公司表现强劲、债券收益率下降以及美联储宽松政策早于预期。 高盛分析师David Kostin表示："不断变化的关税形势给我们的盈利预测带来了很大的不确定性，我们2025年 的盈利预测与市场普遍预期基本一致，但2026年的盈利预测低于市场普遍预期。我们每股收益预测面临的 主要下行风险是最终的关税水平及其对企业利润的影响。" 美国银行预计短期内股市上涨空间有限，并认为在盈利信号不一以及短期内缺乏利率催化剂的情况下，该 指数将在第三季度横盘整理。 Subramanian表示："记住，股价回报只是故事的一半——股息在未来可能会发挥更大的作用。在零利率政策 期间，股息增长滞后于收益增长，这降低了现金回报的重要性。" 高盛目前预计标普500指数到年底将升至6600点，12个月内将达到6900点，较此前的预测分别上调了6%和 11%，理由是美联储将更早采取降息行动。这是高盛策略师两个月内第二次上调预期，也是今年第四次调整 标普500指数目标位，反映出华尔街策略师在关税不确定性时期面临的挑战。 高盛再次上调标普50 ...

据英国金融时报：英国前首相里希·苏纳克将加入高盛担任高级顾问。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, reflecting early signs of milder inflation related to tariffs and emerging deflationary forces [1] - Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 index target for the next 12 months by 11%, citing earlier and deeper monetary easing by the Fed and strong fundamentals of large-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 index's expected returns for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months have been adjusted to +3%, +6%, and +11% respectively, with new target levels set at 6,400, 6,600, and 6,900 points [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that U.S. trade negotiations are moving towards a tactical escalation, with potential increases in tariffs affecting Asian economies [2] - Mizuho Securities notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, reflecting Saudi confidence in market demand rather than an intention to capture market share [3] - Nomura Securities suggests that clearer trade tariffs could help the market eventually rise, as new agreements may reduce uncertainty [5] Group 3 - Bank of America reports that improved Canada-U.S. relations and reduced tariff tensions are likely to benefit the Canadian banking sector [4] - OCBC Bank highlights that despite recent cooling measures in Singapore's real estate market, there remains potential for price and transaction volume increases [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by 25 basis points in July, with a terminal rate potentially dropping to 3.10% [8] Group 4 - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its cash rate in July, leaving the market to interpret future rate changes [9] - CICC notes that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a new era driven by active trading and structural changes in asset and funding dynamics [7] - Huatai Securities anticipates a turning point for IDC due to growing domestic and international demand for intelligent computing centers [8] Group 5 - Galaxy Securities identifies new investment opportunities in the upstream life sciences sector, driven by recovery in revenue growth and domestic substitution trends [9]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank believes that the strong fundamentals of platinum will continue until 2026, supported by four consecutive years of supply deficits and structural demand [1] - Since 2023, platinum has experienced a significant shortage, and this shortage is expected to persist into the fourth year by next year, providing solid price support [1] - Deutsche Bank projects that platinum prices could reach $1,550 per ounce by 2026, indicating potential upside from their base forecast of $1,400 per ounce [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent rise in platinum prices to $1,280 per ounce is primarily driven by speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements [5] - The price sensitivity of Chinese buyers acts as a natural ceiling for platinum prices, with China accounting for approximately 60% of global new platinum supply [5] - The rebound in prices since mid-May has suppressed jewelry and investment demand in China, confirming the price sensitivity of Chinese buyers [5] Group 3 - There is a significant divergence in the outlook for automotive demand between Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, with Goldman Sachs highlighting a structural decline due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles [6] - Deutsche Bank maintains a more optimistic view, suggesting that demand for platinum in automotive catalysts remains high compared to 2018-2022 levels, particularly due to the strong performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [6] - On the supply side, Goldman Sachs expects global platinum supply to remain stable or grow moderately, unless power restrictions in South Africa re-emerge, which accounts for about 70% of global platinum production [6] Group 4 - Trends indicate a shift from gold to platinum as a jewelry manufacturing substitute, supported by rising platinum leasing rates, which are seen as signs of physical shortages [7] - Continuous deficits over the years may have eroded industrial inventories, necessitating some replenishment [7] - Deutsche Bank acknowledges seasonal factors affecting supply, noting that weak performance in the first quarter may be temporary due to adverse weather conditions [8]

杰富瑞：将高盛(GS.N)目标价从597美元上调至801美元。 ...

澳元兑美元在跌破此前阻力位（该位置先转为支撑位，现又再度转为阻力位）0.6525（R1）后，目前呈 现下行态势。不过，只要该货币对维持在0.6360（S1）支撑位与0.6525（R1）阻力位之间的区间内，我 们就对其持整体横盘整理的观点。另一方面，若澳元兑美元明确跌破0.6360（S1）支撑位，我们将立即 放弃横盘整理的观点，转而偏向看空，届时空头的下一个潜在目标将指向0.6225（S2）支撑位。最后， 若要形成看涨前景，该货币对应明确突破0.6525（R1）阻力位，多头的下一个潜在目标则为0.6675 （R2）阻力位。 其维持对澳洲联储在7月会议上将现金利率下调25个基点至3.60%的预测，此预期目前已被市场完全消 化，认为澳洲联储8月会再次连续降息，11月进行最后一次降息，终端利率将达3.10%，鉴于疲软的 GDP数据和不断放缓的私人需求，风险倾向于进入更深层次的宽松周期；关于政策声明，高盛预期声明 最后部分可能无变化，仍强调通胀目标和政策"有些限制"，可能会删除"严重下行情景"提法，因无更新 货币政策预测声明，预计私人需求基调将渐趋温和，但劳动力市场仍会被描述为"紧张"。 周二（7月8日）亚市早盘，澳元 ...