油脂日报 | 2025-12-26 油脂驱动乏力，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7824.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8981.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8500.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%，现货基差P05-42.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化-80.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI05+649.00，环比变化+49.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1124美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调22美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1058美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调29美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(1 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-25 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8488.00元/吨，环比变化+2元，幅度+0.02%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7764.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8980.00元/吨，环比变化+133.00元，幅度+1.50%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差P05-8.00，环比变化 +48.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8210.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y05+446.00， 环比变化+28.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9580.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+1.91%，现货基差 OI05+600.00，环比变化+47.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油产量预估减少7.44%， 其中马来半岛减少11.66%，沙巴减少2.12%，沙捞越减少0.75%，婆罗洲减少1.73%。加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价 格505美元/吨， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to lower production expectations. The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. After India increased its import channels for oils this year, the pace of India's palm oil purchases slowed down, and recent export data also slowed. However, with the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction season, the market expects future supply to decrease synchronously, and the overall situation will continue to fluctuate [1][2] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,486 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.86% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,772 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,847 yuan/ton, a change of -17 yuan or -0.19% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.81%, and the spot basis was P05 - 56 yuan, a change of +78 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,190 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan or +0.37%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 418 yuan, a change of +30 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,400 yuan/ton, a change of +70 yuan or +0.75%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 553 yuan, a change of +87 yuan [1] Market News - As of December 21, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting in July) reached 6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the total imports of rapeseed were 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%; the imports of soybean meal decreased by 11% to 8.83 million tons, and the imports of palm oil were 1.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9%. The Indonesian Meteorological Agency stated that the rainy season in Indonesia is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the authorities should strive to improve efficiency during the harvest period of major crops such as palm oil. As of December 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 2,148,146 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

门源油菜花海。资料图片 18岁的他在北山乡沙沟脑村的小作坊里，守着燃煤的铁锅翻炒菜籽，一天下来只能榨出几十斤油，满脸煤灰 不说，油价还得看收购商脸色。 改变，始于"十四五"的春风吹进门源油菜地。 产业升级的浪潮里，门源县以政策扶持、技术改造补贴为助力，推动油菜加工从小作坊向规模化转型，我也 在这时迎来了属于自己的黄金时代。靳正峰受聘来到香满金门源公司，成了现代油脂加工线上把控品质的"关 键先生"。当政府技改补贴引入的全自动高原冷榨生产线运抵厂区，我看着他围着这个"铁家伙"转了一圈又一 圈，回家时轻轻拍了拍陪伴自己20多年的老式榨机，满是不舍却又满怀期待。 如今，我们的生产车间明亮洁净，恒温恒湿。靳正峰不再需要赤膊挥汗，控制台成了他的新"战场"，可那双 辨火候的"火眼金睛"，仍是精密仪器无法替代的坚守。"如今大不一样喽！"靳正峰看着金灿灿的我汩汩流 出，语气里满是自豪，"用天然气，受热均匀，油质更纯、更亮。这门源油，总算能以它本来的金色面貌，走 向全国了。" 油香四溢。本报记者 刘程锦 摄 本报记者 刘程锦 我是一滴菜籽油，诞生于海北藏族自治州门源回族自治县的青海香满金门源粮油食品有限公司，身上藏着高 原的清风 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market. The market will maintain low - level fluctuations, waiting for the US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8,200 yuan/ton, and the palm oil may have a chance to improve in the future [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil market lies in the external market. Key issues include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed oil supply, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - No specific content provided other than the headings. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - The short - term trend is low - level shock adjustment, with a possible rebound in Q1 2026. The price ranges for P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are [8,200 - 8,800], [7,600 - 8,100], and [8,600 - 9,500] respectively. Technical analysis suggests a short - term low - level consolidation approach for single - side trading and observing the weakening trend of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads for arbitrage. The current basis is expected to be weak in the short term, and the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads are expected to weaken [19]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on basis, spreads, and other indicators [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The US will exempt Indonesia's palm oil tariffs. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in December. Indonesia has started the B50 biodiesel road test, and its implementation is likely in H2 2026. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October [23][24]. - **Likely Negative Information**: Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025. China's palm oil inventory increased in December. Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased in December. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Key events include domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the US small refinery exemption re - allocation, China - Canada trade negotiation progress, and producing area weather information [33]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was weak this week, lacking upward drivers. Capital trends showed a bearish sentiment in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. The basis continued to be weak, and the market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. The rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads weakened slightly [32][35][43]. - **International Market**: The international market was weak and volatile. Palm oil producing areas faced pressure, and the US soybean market lacked positive drivers. The market sentiment was pessimistic [45]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread rebounded slightly, and the BOHO spread continued to weaken [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Import profits fluctuated slightly, but were limited. Profits weakened again near the end of the year [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Producing Area Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Malaysia's palm oil inventory pressure remained in November. December production decreased, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [55]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: Low - season demand and winter factors limit domestic purchases. Wait for inventory pressure relief. - Soybean oil: December raw material arrivals may decline, but inventory is still abundant. Pay attention to potential short - term supply shortages in Q1. - Rapeseed oil: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed arrivals have increased, the supply gap may gradually disappear [57]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Short - term demand for the three major oils is weak. The traditional consumption peak in Q4 has limited impact, and the overall demand is expected to remain stable and weak [60].

核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 多重利空因素 棕榈油震荡偏弱 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌112收于3906林吉特/吨，跌幅 2.79%；棕榈油05合约跌260收于8292元/吨，跌幅 3.04%；豆油05合约跌282收于7712元/吨，跌幅3.53%； 菜油05合约跌603收于8744元/吨，跌幅6.45%；CBOT豆 油主连跌2.24收于48.36美分/磅，跌幅4.43%；ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌23.9收于594.5加元/吨，涨幅3.86%。 ⚫ 油脂整体走弱，菜油领跌油脂，主要是澳菜籽到港压 榨，后续供应预期增多；新年度全球油菜籽供应宽松， ICE ...

油脂周报：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. Gapki数据显示印棕10月产量增至476万吨，10月出口有所增加，但仍处偏低水平，库存有所去库至233万 吨，继续处于历史同期偏低水平。 2. SEA数据显示11月印度食用油进口115万吨，环比减少13%，处于历史同期较为偏低水平，其中棕榈油小增 至63万吨，豆葵油降至37、14万吨，但豆油进口仍偏高。 3.本周油脂整体呈现震荡回落。国内豆油库存拐点已至，目前持续小幅去库，但库存整体不缺，豆油价格更多 跟随油脂整体走势波动。在菜油供应充足的情况下，菜油预计价格上方承压。近期油脂缺乏利多驱动，情绪偏 弱，美国生柴最终方案或推迟至明年、马棕库存持续高企去库缓慢等均不利于油脂的上涨。不过油脂经历了大 幅下跌，预计下方空间将较为有限，建议谨慎追空。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—印棕10月去库较多，CPO现货价稳中有降 50 100 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Indonesia is gradually reducing its palm oil inventory, causing the decline of palm oil prices to stop and enter a period of oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Yesterday's closing prices were as follows - Palm oil 2605 contract was 8,368 yuan/ton, a +0.31% (+26 yuan) change; Soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,802 yuan/ton, a -0.26% (-20 yuan) change; Rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,945 yuan/ton, a -0.06% (-5 yuan) change [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the palm oil price in Guangdong was 8,380 yuan/ton, a -0.12% (-10 yuan) change with a spot basis of P05 + 12 yuan, a -36 yuan change; The first - grade soybean oil price in Tianjin was 8,230 yuan/ton, a -0.24% (-20 yuan) change with a spot basis of Y05 + 428 yuan, no change; The fourth - grade rapeseed oil price in Jiangsu was 9,400 yuan/ton, a -0.21% (-20 yuan) change with a spot basis of OI05 + 455 yuan, a -15 yuan change [1] Recent Market Consultation - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that private exporters sold 114,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year starting September 1 [2] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports in October were 2.8 million tons, about 3% lower than the same period last year. The crude palm oil production in October was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, down from 2.59 million tons the previous month [2][3] - Canadian canola prices: The C&F price for January shipment was $502/ton, down $2/ton from the previous trading day; The C&F price for March shipment was $510/ton, down $3/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil prices: The C&F price for January shipment was $1,142/ton, down $4/ton; The C&F price for March shipment was $1,099/ton, down $13/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil for January shipment was $1,090/ton, unchanged; Canadian rapeseed oil for March shipment was $1,070/ton, unchanged [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]

Group 1 - Malaysia has lowered its January crude palm oil reference price and reduced the export tax to 9.5% [1] - China's palm oil imports in November reached 330,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 97.8%, while the cumulative import volume from January to November was 2.29 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from December 1-15 is estimated at 435,882 tons, a 30.39% increase compared to 334,295 tons in the same period last month [1] Group 2 - Since mid-December, the palm oil market has shown a significant downward trend due to inventory pressure, weak exports, and macroeconomic factors [3] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory surged by 13% month-on-month to 2.84 million tons, the highest level in six and a half years, with expectations of further inventory accumulation increasing selling pressure [3] - Weak demand from the consumption side, including a significant reduction in India's vegetable oil imports in November and a sharp decrease in domestic palm oil transaction volumes, is contributing to the lack of support for demand [3] Group 3 - The overall palm oil market is expected to continue a weak trend due to external pressures from Southeast Asia, upcoming canola seed crushing, and disturbances from state soybean auctions and canola seed imports [4] - A recovery in overnight crude oil prices has eased market sentiment, but the palm oil sector is still anticipated to maintain a weak trajectory in the short term [4]