油脂日报 | 2025-06-11 宏观题材交错，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8116.00元/吨，环比变化-66元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7758.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9188.00元/吨，环比变化+6.00元，幅度+0.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.70%，现货基差P09+374.00，环比变化 +6.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7970.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差Y09+212.00，环 比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9390.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元，幅度+0.11%，现货基差OI09+202.00， 环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：巴西植物油行业协会（Abiove）：维持巴西2024/25年度大豆产量预测为1.697亿吨；维持本年 度大豆压榨量5750万吨的预测。据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚6月1-10日棕榈油出口量为285 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp [4][5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Live pigs, cotton, sugar, logs [2][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The MPOB report has limited impact on oils and fats, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical resistance. The protein meal downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, with spot prices weaker than the futures. The bullish sentiment for corn/starch is rising, and the 09 contract has broken through the previous high. The pork reserve purchase has temporarily boosted the market sentiment for live pigs. The strength of commodities has driven up the price of rubber, while synthetic rubber has changed little and followed the rebound. The macro - environment affects the sentiment of pulp commodities, and pulp maintains an oscillating trend. The fundamentals of cotton have changed little, and the macro - level has released positive news to boost the futures. The sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the log futures are experiencing a decline due to strong delivery games [1][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports in May were higher than expected, and inventory was slightly lower than expected. May production was 1.7716 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 3.94%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25.85% and a year - on - year increase of 0.64%; inventory was 1.9902 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.68% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5% [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and an improvement in the good - to - excellent rate, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday, with palm oil being weaker. The market is focused on Sino - US trade negotiations, the US dollar weakened, and crude oil prices continued to rise. The cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and there is still great uncertainty in US biodiesel and foreign trade policies. The soybean planting progress in the US has reached 90%, and the good - to - excellent rate is 68%. In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas will be normal, and the temperature is expected to be high in mid - June. A large number of imported soybeans are arriving in China, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to rise. The MPOB report on palm oil has limited impact, and the short - term production increase pressure may weaken marginally. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high and the supply is sufficient [4]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the oils and fats market may operate within a range. Recently, there may be a rebound demand for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper technical resistance [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 10, 2025, the international soybean trade basis quotes for US Gulf soybeans were 226 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 7.62% and a year - on - year change of - 20 cents per bushel or - 8.6957%; for US West soybeans, they were 199 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 8.74% and a year - on - year change of - 54 cents per bushel or - 22.7848%; for South American soybeans, they were 180 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 12 cents per bushel or 7.14% and a year - on - year change of - 6 cents per bushel or - 3.4483%. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 34.17 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 20.49 yuan per ton or 149.78% and a year - on - year change of - 74.08 yuan per ton or - 84.412% [4]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, and the precipitation and temperature in the next 15 days will be slightly high. Although the drought in June is not a major problem, it is expected to intensify in the quarterly outlook. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the spot and basis trading volume has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of spot prices. The oil mill's profit margin has increased month - on - month. It is expected that the soybean arrivals will increase in the next few months, the oil mill's operating rate will remain high, the soybean meal inventory will increase seasonally, and the basis will be under seasonal pressure. The downstream soybean meal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the downstream has become more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The year - on - year increase in the inventory of breeding sows indicates that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [4]. - **Outlook**: Before weather speculation, US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating trend within a range. Under the dominance of increasing supply pressure in China, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis will continue to be weak. The soybean meal futures will follow the US soybeans to operate within a range [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 30 yuan per ton. The average domestic corn price is 2,391 yuan per ton, with a price increase of 12 yuan per ton and an expanding increase [4]. - **Logic**: The wheat minimum purchase price policy has been launched in Henan over the weekend, which has continuously boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. The import of grains has been continuously tightened, and the expectation of inventory reduction is gradually being realized. The fundamental situation shows that the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants this morning is 116, remaining at a low level. The demand for new corn from downstream feed - using enterprises is limited, but there is still rigid demand for corn in some egg - laying hens, young poultry, and pig feed. Futures prices have continuously risen, which has in turn boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. In the medium term, the import of grains has been continuously tightened, further confirming the expectation of inventory reduction [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Corn and starch are expected to operate with a bullish bias [5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Industry Information**: On June 10, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.01 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week change of 0.79%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13,595 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 0.89% [5]. - **Logic**: After the recent rapid decline in pig prices, the pig - grain ratio has decreased. On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased, which has boosted market sentiment. However, the current inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals remain loose. In the short term, the slaughter weight of live pigs has decreased, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has significantly increased. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets from January to April 2025 has continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase in the third quarter. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level, and the inventory of breeding sows in May has continued to increase month - on - month in the sample points of Steel Union and Yongyi. The terminal consumption has entered the off - season, and the slaughter demand has decreased. The average slaughter weight has decreased month - on - month [1][5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is weak, and in the long term, the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term market is under pressure to sell, and the far - term market is affected by the expectation of inventory clearance and production capacity adjustment, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 13,740 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber is 13,800 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan. The STR20 spot in the free trade zone is 1,715 US dollars, up 5 US dollars. The price of glue entering the dry - glue factory in Yunnan is 13,000 yuan, unchanged; the price of rubber blocks is 12,600 yuan, unchanged. On June 10, the raw material market quotes in Thailand's Hat Yai showed that the price of white sheet rubber was 63.66 baht, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 67.88 baht; the price of glue was 56.25 baht, up 0.25 baht; the price of cup lump was 46.2 baht, up 1 baht. According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million units in May this year, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail sales volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [5][6]. - **Logic**: Driven by the strength of commodities, the rubber price has increased, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals have changed little. On the supply side, Thailand is still affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has started to decline under the drag of the futures. On the demand side, the overall recovery of tire production is weak, and the finished - product inventory backlog has been slightly alleviated, but there is still no obvious improvement. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the futures may temporarily stabilize and have a slight rebound [6]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the fundamentals of rubber are still weak, and the impact of the commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is relatively large, and the downward trend may continue [6]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber standard delivery products from two major oil companies are as follows: the market price in Shandong is 11,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Yantai Haopu is 11,400 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of butadiene in the central Shandong region is 9,450 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan; the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangyin is 9,100 yuan per ton, down 175 yuan [5]. - **Logic**: The futures followed the broader market to rise slightly yesterday, but the fundamentals have changed little recently. The current futures price has returned to the previous low and the absolute low since listing. The BR fundamentals are relatively neutral, and most private production enterprises have started to reduce production, which may help alleviate the subsequent social inventory pressure. The butadiene market is operating weakly, but the tight supply of spot resources has gradually supported the market sentiment. As the price declines, the phased buying in the market has gradually followed up, and the premium transaction of auctioned goods has boosted the replenishment enthusiasm of middlemen, providing short - term support [7]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the support of the futures after the butadiene price stabilizes. The BR futures are expected to temporarily stabilize, but there is still pressure on the upside [7]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the number of registered warrants in the 2024/2025 season is 10,815. As of June 9, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,520 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan per ton week - on - week [7]. - **Logic**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen for three consecutive trading days. The fundamentals have changed little, and the market sentiment has been boosted by positive macro - news last week. In the new cotton planting season, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase year - on - year. If there is no extreme weather, the cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season may remain high or even reach a new high, with the market generally expecting it to be around 7 million tons. On the demand side, the downstream production has been stable since the beginning of the year until before the Dragon Boat Festival, and cotton consumption has been rapid. However, since June, the downstream demand has gradually entered the off - season, the enterprise operating rate has decreased, and the finished - product inventory has gradually accumulated. On the inventory side, the cotton inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and the commercial inventory is lower than that of last year and the five - year average, which may support the price [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, it is expected to oscillate on the weak side [7][8]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan per ton week - on - week [9]. - **Logic**: The market has advanced the trading of the expectation of a loose global sugar supply in the 2025/2026 season. In the new season, Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The new sugar - making season in Brazil's central - southern region has started, and although the production data as of the first half of May has declined year - on - year, the market's optimistic expectation for the total output remains unchanged. China's 2024/2025 sugar - making season has ended, with a high sales - to - production ratio, a year - on - year decrease in industrial inventory, and a low import volume, but there will be subsequent arrival pressure [9]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected loose supply in the new season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the decline of the external market has led to a downward shift in valuation, and the sugar price is oscillating weakly [9]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, on the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong is 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Maples is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Silver Star is 6,150 yuan per ton, unchanged. The price of Golden Fish is 4,120 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Logic**: Currently, the pulp supply - demand situation is as follows: the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and there are rumors of maintenance and production conversion for Russian softwood pulp, so the price difference between Russian softwood pulp and other softwood pulps may return to the normal historical level. The continuous production pressure of hardwood pulp is emerging, the US dollar price is continuously decreasing, and the domestic downward space has been opened. The overseas shipment is abundant, and the domestic arrival volume of hardwood pulp is generally high. The demand side is generally weak. In the short term, there are news of strikes and pulp mills' price - holding in the supply side. The previous month's futures rebound was mainly due to the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is now approaching the end. Excluding this factor, the overall pulp supply - demand is weak, and the abundant supply of hardwood pulp suppresses the hardwood pulp price, and the weak demand. The decline in the hardwood pulp price negatively affects the softwood pulp price through the price difference between soft and hard pulp. In the future, due to the weak supply - demand, the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline. The pulp futures are priced based on Russian softwood pulp, and the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts and the production conversion of Russian softwood pulp will continue to drive the futures to resist decline [10]. - **Outlook**: Due to the conflict between the weak supply - demand situation, which is negative for the single - side market, and the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is positive for the futures, the pulp futures are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 770 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter. The LG2507 log futures contract closed at 772 yuan per cubic meter, with a basis of - 2 yuan in Jiangsu and - 22 yuan in Rizhao [11]. - **Logic**: Since June, the fundamentals of logs have weakened, and the short - term supply is still accumulating, with the spot price still under pressure. In the futures market, the main log

油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8182.00元/吨，环比变化+72元，幅度+0.89%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7766.00 元/吨，环比变化+28.00元，幅度+0.36%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9182.00元/吨，环比变化+42.00元，幅度+0.46%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8550.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.71%，现货基差P09+368.00，环比变 化-12.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7970.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元/吨，幅度+0.63%，现货基差Y09+204.00， 环比变化+22.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9380.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.43%，现货基差 OI09+198.00，环比变化-2.00元。 油脂日报 | 2025-06-10 原油价格上涨，油脂震荡偏强 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部数据显示，截至2025年6月5日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为547040吨，前一周修 正后为301459吨，初值为268343吨。2024年6月6日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为234061吨。本作物 ...

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats showed a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil prices declined due to the expected increase in domestic imports following signs of eased China - Canada trade relations. Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose slightly. Given the seasonal consumption off - peak and the upcoming summer vacation in southern sales areas, with normal soybean import rhythm and high - volume factory crushing, soybean oil inventory will further accumulate. Domestic oil and fat inventories are slightly on the loose side, and consumption is average. There is a high possibility of futures prices oscillating and consolidating [8][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Analysis - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 7,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of June 05, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12]. Other Data - As of May 30, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 6.40 million tons to 84.80 million tons. On June 4, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 3.00 million tons to 36.30 million tons [16]. - As of June 5, 2025, the port - imported soybean inventory was 5,895,030 tons [20]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 304 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 404 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of June 05, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 168 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats oscillated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 1.31% to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.23% to close at 9,140 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to increase by 3.07%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 1.01%. Meanwhile, 6 - 7 months in 2025 saw concentrated soybean purchases by Chinese enterprises. It is expected that 12 million tons of soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. Based on last year's average monthly soybean crushing volume of 8.7 million tons from June to August, the domestic soybean commercial inventory is expected to increase by 3 - 4 million tons by the end of August. The US soybeans rose 1.51% this week [6][7][30].

Core Viewpoint - The drought situation in the U.S. Midwest is gradually easing, which is beneficial for the growth of new season crops, although there are concerns about warm and dry weather affecting recently planted soybeans [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - As of the week ending May 29, U.S. old crop soybean export sales were 194,300 tons, close to the lower end of market expectations [1] - New crop sales were only 3,500 tons, indicating a lack of significant overseas demand [1] - The market is optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations, which could lead to increased imports of U.S. agricultural products, alleviating soybean supply concerns [1] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Harvest - Argentina has completed 89% of its soybean harvest, an increase of 4% from the previous week [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its production forecast at 50 million tons, slightly above the USDA's estimate of 49 million tons [1] Group 3: Malaysian Palm Oil Production - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month-on-month from May 1 to 31, with peninsula production up by 4.05% and East Malaysia production up by 1.90% [1] - April export volume rose by 24.6%, while March production increased by 17.66% [1] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately, closing about 0.5% higher, reaching a one-week high due to optimism in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures experienced mixed results, closing about 0.3% lower due to weak export sales [1] - Domestic and international palm oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to increased production, while crude oil prices stabilize, creating a favorable atmosphere for oilseeds [1]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-06 油脂结构调整，维持震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8126.00元/吨，环比变化-4元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7676.00元 /吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.16%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9152.00元/吨，环比变化+51.00元，幅度+0.56%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+354.00，环比变化-36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7880.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+204.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差OI09+198.00， 环比变化+19.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此 前一周为17%。巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）基于船运计划数据预测，6月1日至7日期间，巴西大豆出口量为 490.1 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-05 中加代表会面，菜系进一步下行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8130.00元/吨，环比变化-66元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7688.00 元/吨，环比变化-4.00元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9101.00元/吨，环比变化-171.00元，幅度-1.84%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8520.00元/吨，环比变化-130.00元，幅度-1.50%，现货基差P09+390.00，环比变化 -64.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7900.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+212.00， 环比变化-16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9280.00元/吨，环比变化-170.00元，幅度-1.80%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化+1.00元。 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(6月船期)C&F价格1048美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油(8月船期)C&F 价格10 ...

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-04 中加贸易摩擦或有缓和，菜系价格承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8196.00元/吨，环比变化+136元，幅度+1.69%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7692.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.71%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9272.00元/吨，环比变化-76.00元，幅度-0.81%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+2.13%，现货基差P09+454.00，环比 变化+44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.89%，现货基差Y09+228.00， 环比变化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.84%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-4.00元。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总： 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚5月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1069643吨，较 上月同期出口的8253 ...