| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 3870.28 | 13224.51 | 1439.0 | | +45.47 +1.19% +309.85 +2.40% -0.63 -0 | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1325.33 | 3175.91 | 6231.5 | | +31.95 +2.47% +104.15 +3.39% +94.46 +1 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4579.88 | 7137.83 | 5520.7 | | +82.32 +1.83% +136.52 +1.95% +105.85 +1 | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红和 | | 7288.74 | 3063.86 | 5429.6 | | +107.12 +1.49% +22.86 +0.75% +15.36 +0 | | | | 涨幅榜 | 资金净流入 | 5日涨幅* | | --- | --- | --- | | 通信设备 | 化肥农药 | 电子元器 | | +5.02% | +3 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is at a low level, with a score of 35, categorized as "cold" [6][9] - The report highlights three key themes for investment focus: liquid cooling technology, banking stocks, and brokerage firms [6] Liquid Cooling Theme - The upcoming International AIDC Liquid Cooling Industry Chain Conference will take place on December 18-19, indicating a growing trend towards liquid cooling technology in the AI sector [6] - Major companies like NVIDIA have transitioned to liquid cooling solutions for their chips, suggesting a shift in industry standards [6] - Related stocks include Yingwei Technology (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [6] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are noted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [6] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6] - Relevant banking stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] Brokerage Sector - The report mentions a recent speech by the CSRC Chairman emphasizing the need for differentiated regulation and support for quality institutions in the brokerage sector [6] - The focus is shifting from mere scale and growth to high-quality development, encouraging smaller firms to differentiate their operations [6] - Key brokerage stocks highlighted are CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [6] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market is currently in a cautious phase, with a tendency for support when sentiment scores drop below 30 and resistance when scores exceed 70 [9] - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks while avoiding high-risk speculative activities [23]

国内政策细则出台助推太空算力发展，再提能源强国指引核聚 变进程 机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 黄龙(分析师) | 021-38031028 | huanglong@gtht.com | S0880525070027 | 本报告导读： 上周（2025/12/8-2025/12/12）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+1.80%。国内政策细则出台， 助推太空算力进程；中央经济工作会议战略指引可控核聚变发展；半导体设备销售 稳步增长，多晶硅产能整合收购平台正式落地； 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《可控核聚变行业招标显著加速，联创 光电与中国能建签署战略协议》2025.12.14 机械行业《特斯拉开启新一轮审厂，国内本体厂 量产落地加速》2025.12.13 机械行业《AI 端侧守正、人形机器人出奇，3C 供应链重拾成长》2025.12.10 机械行 ...

2026 年机器人投资策略 20251215 摘要 特斯拉机器人 V3 版本即将定型，预计 2026 年二三月份启动百万级产 线，国内宇树智元等本体公司上市，将推动机器人行业进入高潮期，为 供应链带来估值重构机会。 特斯拉机器人硬件逐步定型，将带动拓普、三花、恒立液压、钧胜电子、 双环、爱柯迪等核心零部件供应商获得更多订单，提升市场地位，尤其 在执行器总成、头部模组和灵巧手等关键环节。 液冷赛道受益于数据中心需求增加，敏实、飞龙和银轮等公司从汽车领 域快速切换到液冷领域，热管理技术外延至液冷应用，将进一步推动其 业务增长。 2026 年特斯拉机器人发布会、大脑升级及产能释放，以及国内宇树智 元等本体公司上市，将持续刺激机器人板块向上发展，为相关供应链公 司提供投资机会。 国内机器人行业处于快速突破阶段，宇树智元、优必选和小鹏等公司在 产量和利润上表现良好，预计 2026 年上半年进入密集催化阶段，产品 将从工厂转向小批量生产和销售。 Q&A 2025 年机器人和液冷领域的主要发展趋势是什么？ 2025 年，机器人和液冷领域展现出显著的成长空间。特斯拉等主机厂通过技 术同源系统集成和降本能力推动业务转型，市场逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling industry is expected to experience rapid demand growth starting in 2026, while supply will lag behind, creating a highly favorable market environment for early movers in the sector [17]. Demand Side - As the power consumption of AI computing cards and cabinets increases, traditional air cooling solutions become inadequate, necessitating the adoption of liquid cooling solutions for effective heat dissipation. Specifically, cabinets with power consumption exceeding 35-40KW cannot utilize air cooling [4]. - North America faces severe electricity shortages, and liquid cooling can significantly reduce Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE), thereby saving energy costs and alleviating delays in data center projects caused by power shortages. Liquid cooling solutions can achieve a PUE of less than 1.2 [4]. - Many data centers in North America are located near economic centers or residential areas, and liquid cooling can significantly reduce noise levels compared to air cooling, accelerating project implementation and reducing financial costs [6]. Supply Side - The supply landscape for liquid cooling in North America is currently dominated by American and Taiwanese manufacturers, with limited participation from mainland Chinese firms. The primary technology used is cold plate liquid cooling, which accounts for over 98% of the market [11]. - The verification process for liquid cooling products is lengthy and complex, creating high barriers to entry for new suppliers. This process can take anywhere from six months to two years, making it challenging for many manufacturers to enter the market [11]. Company-Specific Insights - NVIDIA is projected to ship 100,000 cabinets of the GB series (primarily GB300) by 2026, with a liquid cooling value per cabinet estimated at $90,000 to $100,000, leading to a total liquid cooling value of approximately $10 billion [7]. - Google is expected to ship 2.2 to 2.3 million TPU V7 and above chips by 2026, translating to a need for around 35,000 cabinets with liquid cooling solutions, with a total liquid cooling value estimated at $2.6 billion [9]. - Meta anticipates shipping 1 million MTIA V2 chips, requiring about 14,000 cabinets, with a projected liquid cooling value of approximately $1.05 billion [10]. - Amazon's AWS Trainium3 is expected to ship 1.2 million chips, corresponding to around 16,000 cabinets, with an estimated liquid cooling value of $1.25 billion [10]. Market Opportunities for Mainland Chinese Manufacturers - North American CSP technology companies are increasingly looking to mainland Chinese liquid cooling manufacturers to ensure supply chain security, as existing production capacities in North America and Taiwan may not meet the surging demand by 2026 [13]. - Mainland Chinese manufacturers can offer liquid cooling products at a lower cost compared to their foreign counterparts, potentially enhancing project profitability for data centers [13]. - Some leading mainland Chinese manufacturers possess competitive technological advantages in liquid cooling products, which can improve the efficiency of downstream data center products [13]. Future Outlook - The liquid cooling industry is expected to see a significant increase in demand starting in 2026, with early adopters benefiting from the first wave of industry growth. The process of engaging with overseas manufacturers, obtaining samples, and securing initial orders will be crucial for companies looking to capitalize on this trend [17].

Q&A 2026 年机械行业的主要投资主线是什么？ 机械团队 26 年年度策略：重点推荐装备出海+AI 设备高 景气机会 20251214 摘要 工程机械行业性价比高，利润增长依赖海外市场，国内市场困境反转。 三一重工和徐工机械估值分别为 16 倍和 10 倍出头，增长潜力可观，建 议超配。 叉车市场前景广阔，欧美降息刺激需求，无人叉车技术成熟。推荐关注 中力、杭叉和合力，受益于无人叉车产业趋势和欧美市场人力成本优势。 出口链受益于美国降息和欧美制造业复苏预期，光伏设备行业关注硅料 公司收储和下游整合，新技术可能引发扩产需求。 纽威股份具有高性价比，订单增速快，平台化布局潜力大，重点发力水 阀门和电力阀门，未来估值有望提升。 看好北方华创、中微公司、微导和迈为，受益于存储扩产预期和国产化 率提高，头部厂商订单有望大幅增长。 光伏设备行业关注迈为出海战略和奥特维的技术创新带来的资本开支机 会，一旦市场修复，奥特维可能率先反应。 PCB 板块钻孔环节存在历史性机遇，下游资本支出增速高，进口替代逻 辑强，技术迭代速度快，看好大族数控。 哪些细分方向和个股在 2026 年最值得关注？ 在工程机械领域，我们最看好头部主 ...

智通财经APP获悉，近期，富国基金经理罗擎分享了他对人工智能(AI)领域的深度观察与最新研判。他 表示，对明年主线非常乐观，认为AI将是贯穿全年的最明显主线。但过程中必然有波折，要对短期快 速上涨保持警惕。 罗擎指，长期看好AI产业前景，行业仍在快速演进——如OpenAI与芯片巨头的深度绑定、Sora2的突破 表现等，但也指出经历三季度大幅上涨后，部分公司股价已较充分反映当前基本面，投资性价比有所回 落。 至于能走多远，罗擎指要观察两个方面，即市场驱动因素：一是企业业绩，这是根本；二是市场流动 性。总结来说，看好基本面，但资金面需边走边看。 此外，他也持续看好光模块行业的整体发展。同时认为短期涨幅确实夸张，在如此大的体量下，短期再 涨后可能需要休整，但长远看好。 今年三季度，光模块龙头公司的业绩出现分化，有的光模块公司业绩很好，但也有不少公司业绩不佳或 低于预期。核心差别就在于对原材料的准备。物料准备越充分的公司，明年业绩越可能表现出色。 在液冷方面，他表示，液冷本质上是AI的一个分支，看好明年行业开始放量。因为随着AI机柜密度和 芯片功率提升，发热量越来越高，必须使用液冷这种高效散热方式来维持系统稳定。现在 ...

Summary of Liquid Cooling Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the surge in data center cooling demands and stricter PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) regulations. The global AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) liquid cooling market is projected to reach approximately 110-115 billion RMB by 2026 [1][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The cost of cooling systems is expected to double to around 10% of total costs due to rapid server iterations. For instance, the value of server modules increased from $75,000 to $95,000, a 20% rise, as the GB300 phase introduced independent cold plates for each GPU [9][10]. - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: The technology is categorized into indirect contact, direct contact, and spray cooling. The single-sided cold plate is dominant in the North American market, while the Inrow model is suitable for new data centers, and the Inrack model is for retrofitting existing centers [2][6][7]. - **Key Components**: Liquid cooling plates are critical components, with significant technical barriers in the design and manufacturing of microchannel plates. These plates enhance heat transfer but require high stability and leak-proof performance [3][8][12]. Emerging Opportunities - **Domestic Supply Chain**: The opening of supplier permissions by NVIDIA in the GB300 phase allows domestic suppliers to enter the market, increasing the demand for cost-effective solutions as NVIDIA shifts towards cloud services [10][11]. - **Company Performance**: Leading companies like Yingwei and Hongsheng are expected to achieve significant performance milestones by 2026. Yingwei's market value is projected to reach 150 billion RMB, while Hongsheng's profits are expected to exceed 300 million RMB [3][5][14]. Additional Insights - **Technological Challenges**: The manufacturing of microchannel plates faces challenges such as low yield rates and high costs due to complex processes. Companies are actively experimenting to find efficient and cost-effective solutions [12][13]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Yingwei is recognized as a leading player with substantial orders from major clients like Google, while Hongsheng is positioned well within the supply chain, indicating a competitive edge in the liquid cooling market [14]. Conclusion - The liquid cooling industry is poised for rapid growth, driven by technological advancements and market dynamics. The shift towards domestic supply chains and the performance of key players will be crucial in shaping the future landscape of this industry [4][10].

Core Insights - The transition to liquid cooling in data centers is becoming essential due to the rising power consumption of AI chips, marking a significant structural change in the industry [1][2][4] - The global market for direct liquid cooling (DLC) is projected to grow from $1.138 billion in 2024 to $31.599 billion by 2030, driven by the doubling of liquid cooling value per rack [12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift to liquid cooling is not just a hardware upgrade but a strategic necessity driven by intense competition in AI chip development [1] - The liquid cooling market is expected to experience a super cycle worth $31.191 billion, reshaping the global supply chain and opening opportunities for domestic manufacturers [1][12] - The efficiency of traditional air cooling systems diminishes significantly when cabinet power density exceeds 30-40 kW, making liquid cooling a more viable option [5][4] Group 2: Technological Advancements - AI accelerators are pushing thermal design power (TDP) to unprecedented levels, with NVIDIA's GPUs projected to reach up to 7000W in the future [2][10] - Cold plate technology remains dominant for applications below 3500W, while micro-channel lid (MCL) technology is expected to become standard for higher power chips [9][10] - Liquid cooling technology can achieve a cooling capacity 4-9 times greater than air cooling, making it a more effective solution for modern data centers [7] Group 3: Supply Chain Evolution - NVIDIA is shifting its supply chain strategy from a closed model to an open ecosystem, allowing more manufacturers to enter its supply chain [14][16] - This change enables domestic suppliers to either enter as secondary suppliers or potentially become primary suppliers as their technologies mature [16] - The market for liquid cooling systems required for ASIC chips is projected to reach 35.3 billion RMB by 2026, with NVIDIA's platform requiring even more [16]

随着AI芯片功耗迈入"千瓦时代"，一场围绕散热的革命正悄然加速，液冷正从一个"可选项"迅速变为数据中心的"必选项"。 综合瑞银与东吴证券近期发布的深度报告，市场似乎仍未完全消化这场变革的颠覆性。报告明确指出，市场普遍低估了向液冷过渡的速度 和规模，这并非一次普通的硬件升级，而是由AI芯片激烈竞争驱动的"即时、战略性必要之举"。 这一结构性转变不仅将催生一个高达311.91亿美元（约合人民币2205.23亿元）的超级周期，更在重塑全球供应链格局，特别是为国产厂商 打开了进入核心体系的大门。 "热墙"来袭：当风冷走到尽头，液冷即将迎来爆发 AI算力的爆炸式增长，正将芯片推向一道"热墙"。据瑞银及东吴证券报告梳理，AI加速器的热设计功耗（TDP）正以惊人的速度攀升。 英伟达的GPU产品路线图清晰地展示了这一趋势：从H100的700W，到Blackwell B200的1200W，再到预计明年推出的VR200的1800W- 2300W，以及2027年可能超过3600W的VR300，直至未来Feynman平台可能高达5000W-7000W的功耗。 芯片功耗的飙升直接导致机柜功率密度急剧攀升。一个GB200 NVL72机柜 ...