风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓风险;消费复苏不及预期风险;市场竞争加剧超预期;新市场开发不及预期; 产品获批进度不及预期;数据统计口径风险等。 IP+、AI+：拥抱产业机遇期，变现方式更趋多元化 以三丽鸥中国等作为观察中国IP零售行业的风向标，2021年至今，IP行业景气度高居不下。国内IP产业 从上游优质内容生产，中游IP授权运营，到下游多元消费变现，已经形成了完备且高品质的产业链基 础，且2025年IP全产业链均更加积极拥抱资本市场，获得更大增长动能。持续看好IP+产业链黄金发展 期。AI+消费也逐步实现更多应用场景落地及C端付费转化，如AI在人力资源管理的招聘领域应用最为 成熟，B2B跨境电商平台也率先借力AI实现创收。 线下零售、服务：低位孕育积极变化，高质量龙头底色未变 2024年/2025Q1线下服务、零售等相关行业整体收入增速仍承压，其中量价层面的压力均存在，同时经 营杠杆的存在使得业绩端承压更甚。但低位往往蕴含更多包容性和可能性，伴随着政策托底+行业迎接 低基数，该行跟踪到中观及微观层面已出现消费数据改善趋势。中观层面，2025Q2以来以酒店、人服 等为代表的顺周期行业同比增速已现企稳并有上行趋势 ...

投资策略 +-[Table_MainInfo]科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡 ――A 股市场投资策略周报 | 分析师： 严佩佩 | | SAC NO： | S1150520110001 2025 年 6 月 19 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | 严佩佩 |  | 市场回顾，近 | 个交易日（6 月 日-6 月 日），重要指数纷纷收跌； 13 19 | | | 5 | | 022-23839070 | | 其中，上证综指收跌 | 1.19%，创业板指收跌 1.95%；风格层面，沪深 | 300 | | | | SAC NO:S1150520110001 | 收跌 | 1.26%，中证 | 收跌 2.12%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区 | | 500 | | | yanpp@bhzq.com | 间内成交 | 6.33 | 万亿元，日均成交额达到 万亿元，较前五个交易日 1.27 | | | | | | ...

【博时市场点评6月19日】风险偏好收敛，沪深两市调整 6月19日，A股三大指数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3362.11点，下跌0.79%；深证成指报10051.97点， 下跌1.21%；创业板指报2026.82点，下跌1.36%；科创100报1022.12点，下跌0.46%。申万一级行业中， 仅石油石化上涨，涨幅为0.86%；纺织服饰、美容护理、轻工制造跌幅靠前，分别下跌2.36%、2.28%、 1.96%。699只个股上涨，4471只个股下跌。 简评：通过深化科创板改革"1+6"政策措施，重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套标准上市，未盈利的优 质企业可在成长层渡过研发高风险期，盈利达标后转至科创板主层或主板，从而对科创企业形成全生命 周期的资本市场多层次支持链条，有助于提振科创企业发展信心，避免优质企业因盈利门槛外流，促进 资本市场各板块良性互动。 美联储公布6月利率决议，将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预 期。美联储表示，对前景的不确定性已减弱，但仍然处于较高水平。美联储将2025年GDP预估下调至 1.4%，同时将通胀预期上调至3%。另外，美联储点阵图显示，202 ...

从热点看，继续快速轮动。周三芯片半导体、消费电子等震荡走强，涨幅居前。而近期一度拉高的 美容护理、盲盒概念等冲高回落，和港股市场中数只网红个股冲高回落表现同步。总体看，热点"短平 快"轮动的风格没有改变。总体风险偏好较低。 由于近期市场持续窄幅整理，多空双方都缺乏一锤定音的"杀手锏"，因此行情在现有区间相持已 久，反复拉锯。一方面，大盘多次探底不下，韧性十足，包括周三上午，行情也一度向下试探，但随后 就企稳回升，甚至小幅翻红。另一方面，多方也没有很强的上攻愿望，迟迟未能发动有效攻击，致使大 盘盘整复盘整。表现在盘面，沪深两市成交量始终保持在较低水平，显示市场参与意愿不强，观望气氛 浓重。从目前看，在缺乏新的变量因素之前，维持盘局概率较大。 展望后市：短线继续温和盘整，6 月下旬可能面临资金面的阶段性分流，关注盘中成交量能变化。 根据技术分析法则，只有出现持续放量，行情才有选择方向的机会。 风险提示：消息面或海外市场表现超预期，流动性的不确定性。 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要观点 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 19 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 19 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：6 月 18 日上证指数上涨 0.04%，沪深 300 上涨 0.12%，科创 50 上涨 0.53%，中证 1000 下跌 0.1%，创业板 指上涨 0.23%，恒生指数下跌 1.12%。 ❑ 行业：6 月 18 日表现最好的行业分别是电子（+1.5%)、通信（+1.39%)、国防军工（+0.95%)、银行（+0.92%)、 电力设备（+0.32%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-1.73%)、房地产（-1.35%)、建筑材料（-1.22%)、非银金 融（-1.16%)、轻工制造（-1.13%)。 ❑ 资金：6 月 18 日全 A 总成交额为 12217.64 亿元，南下资金净流入 12.42 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商煤炭 樊金璐】煤炭 半年行业策略 ...

新华财经注意到，从各大电商平台公布的数据来看，"618"期间，参加国补的家电家装、手机数码等品 类成交总额较去年双11大幅增长，带动家电、家居、家装、3C数码等行业整体成交同比双位数增长。 此外，IP潮玩、宠物、美容护理，黄金珠宝等一些新消费标的品类销量迭创新高。大促新特征方面，美 团等即时零售发力618，销售数据亮眼。 业内机构认为，在"618"大促提振下，新消费展现出的高增长更受人关注，IP潮玩、宠物、美容护理， 黄金珠宝、线下零售等细分品类存机会。 大促叠加国补家电3C赛道现结构性机遇 据了解，此次618大促活动，京东活动周期首次延长至38天（5月13日-6月20日，而24年同期为21天）， 天猫预售期提前至5月13日，现货期与京东同步覆盖至6月20日，抖音活动周期达36天（5月13日-6月18 日），快手延长至6月30日。头部平台正通过周期延展抢占用户决策时间，同时配合跨品类联动、政府 消费券叠加等组合拳，应对存量市场竞争。多平台取消传统跨店满减改为"官方立减"直降模式，最低 15%折扣（8.5折）。企业端，国补助力折扣加大，各品牌价格带放宽。 数据显示，618开卖以来，天猫平台的破亿新品集中涌现在3 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in consumer stocks, with notable companies reaching historical highs and significant market valuations, reflecting the unique appeal of the Hong Kong consumer sector characterized by high growth, strong brand power, and valuation opportunities [1] - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks is driven by the narrative of asset revaluation in China, improving market liquidity, and a favorable policy environment, positioning the Hong Kong consumer sector as a new battleground for global capital [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - The consumer market is witnessing a revival, with increased foot traffic in shopping areas, packed cinemas, and a surge in online shopping, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [2] - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9%, showcasing the recovery across various sectors including hospitality and transportation [2] Group 3: Policy Support - The Chinese government has prioritized boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand in its economic agenda, with comprehensive measures outlined in the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" to enhance consumer confidence and spending [3][4] Group 4: Emerging Consumer Trends - The rise of "self-care consumption" reflects a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among the Z generation, who prioritize emotional satisfaction and personal well-being in their purchasing decisions [5][6] - Emotional consumption, driven by the need for emotional fulfillment rather than just practical utility, is becoming increasingly popular, with key demands including self-care, value realization, personal expression, and emotional satisfaction [9][10] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a preferred destination for new consumer companies due to its more lenient listing requirements and the government's supportive measures for domestic companies seeking to list abroad [11] - The National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme has shown a cumulative increase of 32.3% in 2024, outperforming other consumer indices, indicating strong growth potential in the sector [15]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations on Wednesday, with major indices showing slight increases, while most individual stocks declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04% to 3388.81 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 0.03% [1] - The total trading volume across A-shares was 12.218 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 12.371 trillion yuan on Tuesday [1] Sector Performance - Bank stocks saw a broad increase, providing some support to the indices despite the decline in most individual stocks. Other sectors that performed relatively well included electronic components, consumer electronics, and wind power [1] - Conversely, sectors with significant declines included pesticides and veterinary drugs, beauty care, small metals, medical services, and household light industry [1] Financial Policy Announcements - The Lujiazui Forum opened on Wednesday, where the central bank governor announced eight financial opening measures, which likely contributed to the rise in bank stocks. The measures include establishing a trading report database for the interbank market and setting up a digital RMB international operation center [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission discussed the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext at the Lujiazui Forum [2] - The U.S. stock market saw a slight decline overnight, with all three major indices dropping by less than 1%. The Hong Kong market experienced a general increase, although the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.12% [2] - The Federal Reserve's two-day interest rate meeting is ongoing, with expectations that there will be no interest rate cuts. Market focus is primarily on the Fed's statements [2] - Many institutions are adopting a defensive stance in their stock recommendations, indicating a cautious market sentiment. The A-share market is expected to continue its sideways trend until there is a noticeable improvement in the economic situation [2]

【博时市场点评6月18日】沪深两市反弹，电子涨幅领先 每日观点 6月18日，A股三大指数上涨。截至收盘，上证指数报3388.81点，上涨0.04%；深证成指报10175.59点， 上涨0.24%；创业板指报2054.73点，上涨0.23%；科创100报1026.85点，上涨0.87%。申万一级行业中， 电子、通信、国防军工涨幅靠前，分别上涨1.50%、1.39%、0.95%；美容护理、房地产、建筑材料跌幅 靠前，分别下跌1.73%、1.35%、1.22%。1758只个股上涨，3327只个股下跌。 资金追踪 市场成交额为12219.26亿元，较前一交易日下跌。两融余额昨日收报18273.39亿元，较前一交易日上 涨。 6月18日2025陆家嘴论坛上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布8项重磅金融政策，包括：设立银行间市场交 易报告库、设立数字人民币国际运营中心、设立个人征信机构、在上海临港新片区开展离岸贸易金融服 务综合改革试点、发展自贸离岸债、优化升级自由贸易账户功能、在上海"先行先试"结构性货币政策工 具创新、会同证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易等。 简评：陆家嘴论坛已经成为国家金融管理部门释放重要信号、对外发声的 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.15%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.36% with over 4,000 stocks declining in the market [1] Sector Performance - The military equipment restructuring concept saw a significant increase of 43.53% in its sector performance, with a net inflow of 1.49 million and a total investment amount of approximately 2.76 billion [2] - Other sectors that performed well include components (+2.70%), military equipment (+2.19%), and military electronics (+1.56%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets (-2.76%), CRO concept (-2.23%), and film and television industry (-2.11%) experienced notable declines [2] Institutional Insights - According to Wang Xiaohua from Dongfang Securities, ongoing geopolitical tensions and high global funding rates may lead to weak liquidity, with a focus on structural market trends and the potential for sector rotation [4] - Xie Aimin from Shenzhen Gaoping Juneng Capital noted that despite global volatility, the domestic economic structure is improving, and the A-share market is consolidating with a more rational investor sentiment [4]