因智利生产商智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)大幅提高其年度溢价，且美元走弱令金属吸引力提升，铜价上 涨。 铜期货价格正向每吨10,900美元迈进，周二涨幅达0.4%。 智利国家铜业公司提出以每吨335美元的溢价，向部分买家供应2026年年度合同所需铜材，该溢价是伦 敦金属交易所价格之上计算的。 该公司向部分中国买家提出，在2026年年度合同中，其铜供应的溢价定为每吨350美元(基于伦敦金属交 易所价格)。此举凸显出市场对运往美国货物激增或很快导致其他地区出现供应短缺的担忧。 权益端，铜相关标的计量2025年8w铜价15—16倍PE，2026年8.5w铜价12—13倍，建议在沪铜波动率下 降至低位时积极介入铜标的布局。 铜矿企业相关港股： 洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)、紫金矿业（601899）(02899)、五矿资源(01208)、江西铜业（600362）股 份(00358)、中国有色矿业(01258) 鉴于铜矿增量有限，电力消费前景良好，全球铜供需出现缺口且随时间推移缺口呈扩大之势，支撑铜价 重心上移。目前铜已经完成对Grasberg、Teck供应干扰的计价，疲弱的消费主导铜价短期回落； 另外，据 ...

产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：智利国家铜业对2026年长单报价大幅上涨至350美元/吨，较2025 年提升261美元，反映冶炼成本上升；同时，西藏玉龙铜业项目投产，年处 理氧化铜矿能力提升至100万吨，阴极铜产量增至13527吨，澳大利亚Eva铜 矿项目获批，预计2028年增加供应。 需求端 ：华北地区下游消费疲软，月末资金受限导致需求不佳，下游采购 压价心理明显；电力、建筑等领域需求未现强劲复苏，采购情绪仅略微上 升。 电解铜价高位震荡，需求疲软抑制进一步上行空间 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：主力合约SHFE价格小幅上扬至86620元/吨，较前一日上 涨70元；LME价格同步走高至10832.5美元/吨。基差方面，升水铜基差小幅 走高至150元/吨，平水铜基差扩大至35元/吨，但LME(0-3)基差走弱至9.52 美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：市场采购情绪略微上升，成交量略有扩大；持仓量未显示显 著变化，库存数据间接反映市场流动性稳定。 市场小结 预计未来一到两周铜价维持高位震荡，受供给端成本支撑和宏观情绪改善 驱动，但需求端疲软抑制涨幅。驱动原因包括：供给端长单报价上涨和 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Since late October, domestic and international commodity prices have experienced fluctuations, with copper and gold prices showing high volatility after strong performance earlier [1] - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, driven by concerns over the job market, may stimulate a new upward trend in copper prices [1] - Supply shortages are a solid foundation for rising copper prices, particularly due to tight copper ore supply constraining refined copper production [1] Group 2: Copper Supply Dynamics - In 2025, global copper mine supply growth is expected to fall short of projections, with a predicted decline of 0.12% year-on-year [2] - The top twenty copper mines are projected to see a 6.5% year-on-year decrease in production in Q3 2025, primarily due to external disruptions and internal factors affecting most companies [2] - Significant production increases are anticipated from specific mines, such as Oyu Tolgoi and Las Bambas, while others like Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg are facing production declines due to various incidents [2][3] Group 3: Future Production Challenges - The global copper mine output is unlikely to see substantial growth in 2026, with increases mainly coming from the resumption of Grasberg and the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi [3] - The average ore grade is continuously declining, and mining costs are rising, while new mine development cycles take 6 to 10 years, limiting the potential for rapid output increases [3] - Factors such as resource protectionism and rising development costs are likely to hinder copper mine production from meeting expectations, providing long-term support for copper prices [3] Group 4: Smelting and Refining Pressures - Copper mine shortages are constraining the expansion of refined copper output, with many smelters facing raw material inventory depletion and significant operational pressures [4] - Despite plans for new smelting capacity in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, delays are expected in their deployment [4] - Increased activity in overseas smelting plant tenders indicates a proactive approach to securing raw materials, but this further exacerbates the copper supply shortage [4] Group 5: Emerging Demand Drivers - Despite a significant rise in copper prices, traditional copper demand is being suppressed, while emerging sectors like photovoltaic, energy storage, and AI are driving strong demand growth [5] - The photovoltaic industry is projected to require approximately 217.3 to 220 thousand tons of copper due to anticipated global solar installation growth [5] - The energy storage market in China is expected to continue its rapid growth, with significant increases in installed capacity projected through 2027 [6] Group 6: Investment Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut is expected to boost asset prices, including copper, which is increasingly viewed as a critical resource in the AI era [6] - The demand for copper foil is expected to rise significantly, indicating substantial potential for further price increases [6] - Downstream purchasing companies can utilize micro copper futures to hedge against rising procurement costs [6]

01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 铜周报：降息前景不明，铜价高位整理 2025-11-24 01 主要观点策略 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜区间震荡。截至上周五收至85660元/吨，周跌幅1.87%。美国劳工部公布最近非农就业情况，新增就业岗位显著高于预 期水平。叠加美联储后续利率政策内部意见分歧下，12 月降息概率有所下调，铜价高位承压。基本面铜精矿TC仍处于历史负值低位， 自由港的印尼Grasberg预期将于明年二季度复产，但铜矿紧缺下铜价中枢中长期有支撑。铜价下跌带动下游订单回升，采购情绪回升 铜库存小幅去库，但高铜价对终端需求影响仍较大，铜价或延续高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25-11-05 25-10-30 25-10-24 25-10-20 25-10-14 25-09-30 25-09-24 25-09-18 25-09-12 25-09-08 25-09-02 25-08-27 25-08-21 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released, which are expected to boost carbon prices, and carbon prices are likely to recover at an accelerated pace. The potential buyer demand in the market may increase by over 100 million tons in the remaining month of this year, and the actual procurement demand of the three industries is estimated to be around 30 million tons [5]. - MEG is in a weak mid - term trend, with short allocation recommended, and the monthly spread maintains a reverse arbitrage. The supply is expected to return in the future, and there is a pattern of supply - demand surplus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [6][7]. - The repair market of treasury bond futures has reached its limit. The subsequent market is expected to show a steeper curve and a bearish trend with fluctuations. The probability of scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) is relatively high [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Carbon Market - The 2024 and 2025 national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released. In 2024, the free - allocated quotas equal the quotas to be cleared, and the basic carry - over volume is increased from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. In 2025, the overall balance of the three industries is maintained, and the adjustment coefficient of the carbon emission intensity coefficient is expanded from 10% to 15% [5]. MEG - The load of the synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit has decreased from 80% to below 70% in the previous two weeks, but some device overhauls have ended, and new devices are put into production. The monthly import is expected to exceed 600,000 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the polyester load declines in December, resulting in a supply - demand surplus [6][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market had a repair market due to weak economic data and a decline in global risk appetite. Currently, it is difficult to stimulate the long - end price to continue rising. The bond market curve is expected to become steeper, and the market trend is bearish. There are two scenarios in the future, with scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) having a higher probability [8][9]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure due to increased internal and external inventories; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead prices are restricted from falling due to reduced inventories; tin prices are falling from a high level; aluminum shows a slight stabilization, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; nickel prices break through the support level and are under pressure to oscillate, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality but have limited downward space [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Carbonate lithium may have a short - term correction; industrial silicon may see production cuts to support prices in the future, and polysilicon is in a weak and volatile pattern; iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese experience a weakening market sentiment and supplementary price drops; coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation; logs are in a volatile and repeated state [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking process in the producing areas; soybean oil is oscillating strongly; soybean meal and soybeans are in an adjustment and oscillation; corn is oscillating; sugar is in a range - bound arrangement; cotton prices are still suppressed by the pressure of new cotton listing; eggs show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; live pigs' price increase expectation due to cooling fails, and the pressure is gradually released; peanuts require attention to the spot market [12][15].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first three quarters, achieving a revenue of $925 million, a year-on-year increase of 99.83%, and a net profit of $341 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The third quarter saw a net profit of $141 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.43%, driven by rising gold and copper prices and improved sales discount coefficients for the Jiamar mine [1] - The company has set ambitious production guidance for 2025, with gold production from the Changshanhao mine expected to be between 2.4-2.6 tons and from the Jiamar mine between 2.15-2.3 tons, alongside copper production guidance of 63,000-67,000 tons [1] Production and Cost Data - For the first three quarters, gold production was 4.02 tons and sales were 4.21 tons, while copper production was 54,100 tons and sales were 53,300 tons [1] - The unit production cost for gold at the Changshanhao mine was $1,639 per ounce, while the unit production cost for copper at the Jiamar mine was $3.23 per pound, with a decreasing trend in costs observed over the quarters [2] Operational Insights - The Changshanhao gold mine is nearing the end of its operational life, with a reduced production capacity of 40,000 tons per day, while the Jiamar mine is undergoing operational adjustments due to past incidents and is expected to resume full operations by mid-2027 [3] - The company is actively working on the construction of a third tailings storage facility, which will enhance the daily processing capacity once operational [3] Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of $1.277 billion, $1.440 billion, and $1.564 billion, with corresponding net profits of $502 million, $666 million, and $740 million, indicating strong growth potential [3]

Summary of Compañía de Minas Buenaventura (NYSE:BVN) 2025 Investor Day Company Overview - **Company**: Compañía de Minas Buenaventura - **Event**: 2025 Investor Day held on November 18, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: Leandro García (CEO), Daniel Dominguez (CFO), Juan Carlos Ortiz (VP of Operations), Roque Benavides (Chairman) Industry Insights - **Mining Sector**: Focus on gold, silver, and copper production - **Market Position**: Currently ranked 81st in market capitalization, with aspirations to reach the top 50 in 15 years - **Production Goals**: - Gold: From current 120,000-130,000 ounces to 200,000-220,000 ounces per year - Silver: From current levels to 20-22 million ounces per year - Copper: From current levels to 120,000-130,000 tons per year Core Strategies and Financial Performance - **Revenue Mix**: 50% base metals and 50% precious metals, targeting a minimum EBITDA margin of 30% [5][6] - **Financial Strength**: Current leverage ratio at 0.45, down from 6 times EBITDA five years ago [9] - **Investment Grade**: Aiming to regain investment grade status and participate in new mining standards [5] Production and Operational Highlights - **Flagship Projects**: - **Cerro Verde**: Partnership with Freeport-McMoRan - **Uchucua and Yumpac**: Silver complex - **Brocal**: Copper mine - **San Gabriel**: Expected to start production in December 2025 [3][6] - **Production Forecast**: - Gold production expected to reach 75,000-80,000 ounces in 2026, increasing to over 100,000 ounces in subsequent years [28] - Copper production at El Brocal projected to reach 60,000 tons per year by 2029 [34] Cost Management and Efficiency - **Cost Reduction Initiatives**: - San Gabriel cash costs projected to decrease from $2,000 to $1,500-$1,400 per ounce as production ramps up [52] - El Brocal cash costs expected to reduce from $6,000 to $5,000 per ton [53] - Uchucua cash costs projected to decrease from $12 to $9-$10 per ounce [53] - Coimolache costs expected to drop from $1,400 to $1,100 per ounce [54] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Practices - **Local Employment**: 64% of employees are from local communities [14] - **Safety Record**: Zero fatal accidents reported this year [15] - **Renewable Energy**: 100% of energy sourced from renewable sources [16] - **Community Investment**: $240 million spent annually on local services and goods [15] Political and Economic Context - **Political Landscape**: Upcoming elections in Peru may bring discussions on nationalization and tax changes, but the current political context is more stable compared to 2021 [18][19] - **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: Strong central bank and positive performance of the Peruvian sol [19] Future Outlook - **Cash Flow Projections**: Expected positive free cash flow starting in 2026, with projections of $150 million in 2026 and $400 million in 2027 [56][57] - **Capital Expenditures**: Estimated at $400 million for 2025, with a focus on San Gabriel construction and sustaining CapEx for other projects [55] - **Dividend Expectations**: Anticipated dividends from Cerro Verde of $150 million-$170 million annually [56] Conclusion - **Strategic Focus**: Buenaventura is committed to operational stability, strategic expansion, and maintaining a strong financial position while enhancing production capabilities across its flagship projects [58][59]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The copper price is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term. Although the copper price has fallen from its high due to the hawkish signals from Fed officials, the pressure from the macro - side on the copper price is not expected to last. The tight spot market and frequent copper mine accidents provide support for the copper price [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On Monday, the Shanghai copper price dropped 0.91% to 86,450, and the total positions decreased by 11,326 lots. The copper price fell from its high due to the hawkish signals from Fed officials. The spot price dropped 585 to 86,510, and the spot premium increased 50 to 105. The month - to - month spread of the last trading day fluctuated significantly, and the premium of Shanghai copper against the current month strengthened significantly [9]. - The social inventory decreased by 0.73 tons over the weekend because of less imported and domestic arrivals. The LME0 - 3 swap fee turned to back at 3.88, and the Shanghai - London ratio fell below 8, leading to an expansion of the spot import loss to over 900. The short - term import window remained closed, and the supply of imported goods was expected to decline [9]. - The increase in spot premiums at home and abroad highlighted the tightness of the spot market. The probability of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in December dropped to 40% due to the Fed officials' remarks. A large number of important US data will be released starting this Thursday, but the inflation and employment data in October still face challenges, which may lead to significant differences in the December Fed meeting. A rate cut in December is still ruled out in the short term [9]. - A bridge collapse at a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo over the weekend caused 32 deaths. Frequent copper mine accidents maintained the support from the mine end [9]. 2. Industry News - On Saturday, a bridge at a copper mine in the southeast of the Democratic Republic of Congo collapsed, causing 49 deaths and sending 20 seriously injured people to the hospital [12]. - On November 15, Huixin Copper Industry in Siziwangqi Bainaimiao area cooperated with Amaowusu Mining Company for copper mining and beneficiation. The project with an annual output of 10,000 tons of copper concentrate powder and an annual processing capacity of 800,000 tons of ore officially started production. It is expected to process 6,000 tons of raw ore and produce 3,200 tons of copper concentrate powder by the end of the year, with an output value of 64 million yuan. After the deep exploration and mine operation are completed next year, the industrial output value will reach 1.1 billion yuan [12]. - The second - phase expansion project of Sichuan Southwest Copper Industry Co., Ltd. has completed the main construction and entered the final stage. The project focuses on the efficient and circular use of resources and will build a production line for the deep - processing of waste high - voltage cable copper with an annual processing capacity of 53,200 tons. After the full operation of the second - phase project, the company's total production capacity will reach 170,000 tons. It is expected to achieve an output value of 1.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of this year and a total annual output value of 4.5 billion yuan [13].

国信证券发布研报称，中国黄金国际(02099)2025年前三季度业绩强劲，营收与净利润大幅增长并实现 扭亏，主要受益于金铜价格上涨及成本优化。公司金、铜产销量稳步提升，全年产量有望超指引。随着 甲玛矿逐步复产和未来产能扩张，成长性可期，当前股价对应PE为13.9/10.5/9.4X，考虑到公司拥有 金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，未来成长性较强，维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

国信证券发布研报称，中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)2025年前三季度业绩强劲，营收与净利润大幅 增长并实现扭亏，主要受益于金铜价格上涨及成本优化。公司金、铜产销量稳步提升，全年产量有望超 指引。随着甲玛矿逐步复产和未来产能扩张，成长性可期，当前股价对应PE为13.9/10.5/9.4X，考虑到 公司拥有金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，未来成长性较强，维持"优于大市"评级。 公司前三季度实现黄金产量4.02吨，实现黄金销量4.21吨。其中长山壕前三季度黄金产量约2.12吨，黄 金销量约2.34吨;甲玛矿前三季度黄金产量约1.90吨，黄金销量约1.87吨。公司前三季度实现铜产量5.41 万吨，实现铜销量5.33万吨。公司2025年产量指引：长山壕黄金产量指引约2.4-2.6吨;甲玛矿黄金产量指 引约2.15-2.3吨，铜产量指引约6.3-6.7万吨。全年的维度来看，公司金、铜产量超过指引的可能性较 高。 成本数据方面 长山壕前三季度黄金单位生产成本1639美元/盎司;甲玛矿前三季度铜单位生产成本3.23美元/磅， Q1/Q2/Q3单位生产成本分别为3.41/3.19/3.13美元/磅，前三季度扣除副产品 ...