Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The copper market is waiting for guidance from the Fed's interest rate cuts, with price fluctuations narrowing [1] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 78,730, up 0.13%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,721, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 48,373, an increase of 24,847 compared to the previous day, and the position was 139,777, an increase of 1,819. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,574, a decrease of 718, and the position was 263,000, a decrease of 2,295. The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,223, a decrease of 275, and the inventory of LME Copper was 156,350, an increase of 1,200. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 6.88%, a decrease of 0.38% [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,200, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous day. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 190, a decrease of 5. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 10, a decrease of 10. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first contract was 204. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was 171, an increase of 24. The spread between the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third contract and LME 3M was - 144, an increase of 35. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 944, a decrease of 106. The import profit and loss of recycled copper was - 1,287, a decrease of 467 [1] [Macro and Industry News] - **Macro News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, a Fed voter for next year said that there may be no interest rate cut in September, and this year's voters were hesitant about action. After that, the yield of the two - year US Treasury note was close to a three - week high. Fed Chair candidate Brad suggested aggressive action: a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, with the first action in September. The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, unexpectedly reaching a new high in more than three years, and inflation pressure intensified [1] - **Industry News**: The oxygen - making equipment of the PT Smelting smelter malfunctioned, extending the originally scheduled four - week maintenance period. The smelter of the El Teniente copper mine of Codelco has restarted operation. Glencore has submitted an application to include two copper mine projects in Argentina with a total estimated capital expenditure of more than $13 billion in the Argentine government's investment incentive program. In July 2025, China's refined copper imports were 335,969.236 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in July 2025 were 2,560,072.316 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. Australia's Hillgrove Resources said that a new high - grade copper/gold resource was discovered in its Kanmantoo underground mine in South Australia, and early drilling indicated that there was a possibility of increasing the mine's metal resources in the near future [1][3] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows strong growth as the US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly reached a three - year high, but it may also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm due to inflation concerns [7]. - For the soybean sector, the rise in US soybean prices is driven by a Reuters report and a market rumor. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic and move with US soybean prices [8][10]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to oscillate and correct after the macro - sentiment cools down, as the driving force for the previous rise has weakened [11]. - The copper market lacks a clear driver, with a narrowing price range, but the downside support is relatively clear. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. - The PTA market has a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Indicators - The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, with the output and backlog of orders reaching highs since mid - 2022, and new orders reaching the highest since February 2024. The services PMI initial value was 55.4, a two - month low, and the composite PMI initial value was 55.4, a nine - month high [7]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analyses 3.2.1 Beans - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemption applications on Friday, and a supplementary rule on large refineries may be released next week. A market rumor said that China plans to buy US soybeans, driving up US soybean prices. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic [8][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous rise was due to the expected supply contraction of coking coal under anti - involution policies. Recently, the driving force has weakened as the policy window has passed, the macro - sentiment has cooled, the exchange has restricted positions and increased handling fees, and the actual supply remains high with weakening fundamentals. Coke's seventh price increase is expected to be implemented today, but steel mills' acceptance of price increases is decreasing [11]. 3.2.3 Copper - Macroscopically, the market is waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech and interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, overseas smelters are reducing production due to raw - material shortages and losses. The tight supply of recycled copper may also affect production. The domestic consumption season is approaching, and inventories are low. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. 3.2.4 PTA - The unexpected shutdown of the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant is expected to cause significant inventory reduction in August - September. The polyester device's operating rate has increased, and the PTA supply - demand relationship will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Other Commodity Trends - Gold is in high - level oscillation, and silver has a slight decline [19]. - Zinc is in a weak oscillation, and lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [19][33][36]. - Tin is in range - bound oscillation, and aluminum is in a range - bound state, with alumina slightly falling and cast aluminum alloy following electrolytic aluminum [19][40][43]. - Nickel is in low - level oscillation, and stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality [19][46][47]. - Lithium carbonate's weekly inventory is decreasing again, and it is in range - bound oscillation [19][53]. - Industrial silicon is affected by market news, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to this week's meeting information [19][57]. - Iron ore still has support as the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined [19][61]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [19][64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations [19][69]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [19][72]. - Logs are in repeated oscillations [75].

Core Insights - BHP reported a decline in annual profits to the lowest level in five years due to falling iron ore and coal prices, indicating a mixed global economic outlook [1] - For the fiscal year ending June 2025, total revenue decreased by 8% to $51.3 billion, while profit fell by 26% to $10.2 billion [1] - Increased copper production helped offset weakness in other commodities, contributing 45% to the company's underlying earnings, with copper output growing by 28% over the past three years [1] - The company noted record iron ore and copper production for the fiscal year, with demand from major Asian export markets helping to mitigate the impact of an unstable overall trade environment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee has rebounded, but the shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is not expected to perform well, but with relatively stable grid orders, the overall price is expected to fluctuate. The development of the Putin-Biden meeting and the performance of the domestic equity market may impact copper prices. The report suggests a neutral stance on copper, puts arbitrage on hold, and provides option strategies [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, a -0.32% decline from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 130 - 250 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average premium of 190 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was in the range of 78,670 - 78,870 yuan/ton. The purchase and sales sentiment in Shanghai increased. It is expected that domestic supplies will continue to be supplemented, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper will face continued pressure [2]. 3.3 Important Information Summary 3.3.1 Macroeconomic - The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting showed that tariffs pose upward pressure on commodity price inflation, but the increase in the cost of imported goods including tariffs will be less than previously predicted and the time of increase will be postponed. The labor market is expected to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise above the estimated natural unemployment rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [3]. 3.3.2 Mine End - Tudor Gold has submitted an underground exploration permit application for the Treaty Creek gold-copper mine project. First Quantum Minerals has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for the Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia, which is expected to nearly double the ore processing capacity, increase smelter capacity by about 25%, and increase the average annual copper production to 250,000 tons by 2044 [4]. 3.3.3 Smelting and Import - The Hong Kong delivery warehouse of the London Metal Exchange was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase. Some smelters have reduced production due to shortages of copper concentrate and scrap. In August, the number of smelters reducing production has increased compared to July [5]. 3.3.4 Consumption - The monthly prosperity index of China's copper industry in July was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [6]. 3.3.5 Inventory - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 25,223 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous week [6].

Core Viewpoint - Codelco will lower its production guidance for 2025 following a recent accident at its flagship mine El Teniente, which resulted in a production decrease of 33,000 tons and a financial loss of $340 million [1][1][1] Production Impact - The CEO Ruben Alvarado announced that the expected production for El Teniente this year is 316,000 tons [1] - The accident occurred on July 31 near a new section of the underground tunnel network called Andesita, leading to a temporary suspension of mining activities [1][1] Financial Implications - The production decline has resulted in a loss of $340 million, which is slightly higher than the previously estimated loss of $300 million based on a 20,000 to 30,000 ton production decrease [1][1] - The company plans to announce its latest copper production guidance when it releases its financial results for the first half of the year, which has been delayed due to the accident [1][1] Long-term Goals - Codelco's chairman Maximo Pacheco stated that the company aims to maintain a long-term production target of 1.7 million tons of copper annually until 2030 [1][1] - The company had previously set a production target of 1.37 to 1.4 million tons for 2025, slightly above the previous year's output [1][1]

机构：天风证券 研究员：刘奕町/曾先毅 受益金铜价格上行，业绩同比高增 公司25H1 实现营收41.55 亿元，yoy+178.36%，实现归母净利润14.34 亿元，同比+732.36%；其中Q2 实 现营收22 亿元，同比+107.7%，环比+12.5%，归母净利润8.25 亿元，同比+2244.8%，环比+35.6%。 长山壕矿：25H1 产量年化超过全年指引，成本稳中有降量：25H1 黄金产量1.43 吨，Q1/2 分别为 0.74/0.69 吨。25H1 黄金销售1.7吨，Q1/2 分别0.9/0.79 吨。 甲玛矿：年化产量超指引，折价系数、副产收益环比升高，成本环比下降量：25H1 黄金产量1.36 吨， Q1/2 分别为0.7/0.66 吨；25H1 黄金销售1.3吨，Q1/2 分别0.65 吨。25H1 铜产量3.5 万吨，Q1/2 分别 1.7/1.8 万吨；25H1铜销售3.4 万吨，Q1/2 分别1.7/1.8 万吨。H1 副产银86 吨，铅2.1 万吨，锌1.1 万吨， 钼453 吨。 价：25H1 伦铜均价9442 美元/吨，Q1/2 分别为9340/9480 美元/盎司；金银等副 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The outcome of the September Fed interest rate meeting is highly uncertain, leading to a stalemate between bulls and bears in the market. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will make cautious decisions at the meeting to avoid significant easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation has improved, reducing market risk aversion. On the supply side, refined copper production in May increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the port inventory of copper concentrates has declined to a five-year low. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in Chile has led to a short-term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees for smelters continue to stabilize and rise, with long-term contracts profitable and spot contracts still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. In August, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production of refined copper will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up. On the demand side, downstream demand is tepid during the off-season, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. Real estate investment and sales have declined, but the power grid and new energy sectors provide demand resilience. The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short-term demand and a loose supply-demand pattern. However, as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, domestic demand is expected to improve. Overall, with the Fed interest rate meeting approaching, the market is in a stalemate, and the market situation is highly uncertain. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the expected peak season demand provides support for the market. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamental Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in July was flat at 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut [5]. Recent Developments in the Copper Mining Sector - Jintian Co., Ltd. announced on August 13 that with the rapid development of the AI industry driving the growth of chip computing power demand, copper materials have become the core materials for advanced chip interconnection and heat dissipation due to their excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. The company's high-precision special-shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products have been mass-produced in the 3DVC new AI heat dissipation structure and have reached strategic cooperation with global leading heat dissipation module enterprises, and are applied in multiple top-level GPU heat dissipation solutions. The company's self-developed copper heat pipes, liquid-cooled copper tubes and other products have also been successfully introduced into the computing power servers of multiple leading enterprises [7]. - On August 14, foreign media reported that Chilean mining company Antofagasta's semi-annual report showed that its core profit increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Driven by the strong global copper demand and rising prices, its EBITDA increased from $1.39 billion in the same period last year to $2.23 billion, slightly higher than market expectations [9]. Analysis of LME Copper and SHFE Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 19, the highest price of SHFE copper during the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.97% and an interval decline of -0.16%. The highest price of LME copper during the week was $9,865/ton, the lowest was $9,680/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.88% and an interval decline of -1.58% [10]. - As of August 20, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and the number of domestic smelter maintenance increased, leading to a stronger spot premium. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [16]. Copper Supply Side - According to customs data, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week [19]. - The El Teniente copper mine under Codelco in Chile suffered a mine collapse on July 31, with a magnitude of 4.2, resulting in the death of six miners. The smelter restarted on August 13 [19]. - As of August 15, the spot TC in China was -37.65 dollars/dry ton, and the RC was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rise. The result of the mid-year long-term contract negotiation was set at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long-term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still in the red. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October [22][23]. - In June 2025, the import volume of scrap copper was 183,200 tons, higher than expected. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper reduced the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelters reduced their scrap copper usage rate [28]. - In July 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. The cumulative production from January to July was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. The smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production will not fluctuate significantly. However, production may be cut or halted in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up [28][29]. - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [29]. Copper Inventory Data - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory build-up speed has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous week and an increase of 28.76% from the previous month. The inventory build-up speed at COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, an increase of 1.16% from the previous week and an increase of 11.59% from the previous month [31]. - On August 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 94,300 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 88,100 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 6,200 tons, an increase of 800 tons from August 11 and unchanged from August 14. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase due to the arrival of export goods from some smelters [31]. - The SHFE inventory has remained at a low level with slight fluctuations and has not increased significantly. However, it increased by 2,423 tons compared to the previous week, reflecting weak downstream demand and a loose supply-demand pattern in the short term [31]. Downstream Terminal Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by approximately 2% in 2025 and by approximately 0.8% in 2026 [40]. - Downstream demand is tepid, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. However, the power grid and new energy sectors have strong resilience, providing support for copper prices [40]. - According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod in July 2025 was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The operating rate was lower than expected, and downstream cable procurement was cautious, putting pressure on copper rod processing fees. Refined copper rod enterprises showed unexpected production cuts, and the current operating load is at a historically low level. It is expected that the production reduction in August will be limited [40]. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, with a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also periodic restocking [40]. - From January to July, the retail sales of air conditioners increased by 16.7% year-on-year, maintaining a steady upward trend in the first half of the year. In August, the growth rate of the retail end turned negative for the first time, with a 6% and 19% decline in online and offline sales respectively in the first week of August. The domestic sales production plan for air conditioners in September was 5.082 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and the export production plan was 4.785 million units, a significant decrease of 14.6% [40]. - According to the National Energy Administration, the investment in power grid projects from January to June was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching a historical high for the same period. The investment in power source projects from January to June was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively. Power grid projects remain a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [46]. - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year-on-year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4.9566 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June [46].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability in the first half of the year, achieving a revenue of $580 million, up 178% year-on-year, and a net profit of $200 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The production and sales data for core products indicate strong performance, with gold production of 2.74 tons and copper production of 34,900 tons in the first half of the year, suggesting a high likelihood of exceeding annual production guidance [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved Q1/Q2 revenues of $273 million and $307 million respectively, with Q2 showing a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The net profit for Q1/Q2 was $85 million and $115 million respectively, with Q2 reflecting a 35% quarter-on-quarter growth [1] Production and Sales Data - Gold production for the first half was 2.74 tons, with Q1/Q2 production of 1.39 tons and 1.35 tons respectively; gold sales were 2.94 tons, with Q1/Q2 sales of 1.50 tons and 1.44 tons [1] - Copper production reached 34,900 tons, with Q1/Q2 production of 16,900 tons and 18,000 tons; copper sales were 34,300 tons, with Q1/Q2 sales of 16,700 tons and 17,600 tons [1] Cost Structure - The unit production cost for gold at Changshanhao was $1,619 per ounce, with Q1/Q2 costs of $1,625 and $1,612 per ounce respectively [2] - The unit production cost for copper at Jiama was $3.29 per pound, with Q1/Q2 costs of $3.41 and $3.19 per pound; after deducting by-product credits, the copper unit cost was $0.53 per pound for the first half, with Q1/Q2 costs of $0.73 and $0.33 per pound, indicating significant cost optimization in Q2 [2] Operational Insights - Changshanhao gold mine operates as an open-pit mining operation with a designed capacity of 60,000 tons per day, reduced to 40,000 tons per day as of July 2019; the mine is approaching the end of its life, with underground operations expected to commence around 2029-2030 [3] - Jiama copper-gold polymetallic mine employs both underground and open-pit mining methods, with a combined capacity of 50,000 tons per day; operations were halted due to tailings overflow in March 2023, but are expected to resume in May 2024 with a reduced capacity of 34,000 tons per day [3] - The company is actively advancing the construction of a third tailings storage facility, expected to be completed and operational by mid-2027, which will increase total daily processing capacity to 44,000 tons [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reason was that the unexpected increase in the US PPI slightly cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The hawks and doves within the Fed have significant differences on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year. Gradual and small - scale interest - rate cuts may still be the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the accident - hit mine under Codelco is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity. The inventory accumulation in the domestic off - season is limited, and the near - month structure has changed from flat to a slightly B structure [2]. - Overall, the general recovery of the US September interest - rate cut expectation, the continuous alleviation of global economic growth concerns after the implementation of tariffs, the good results of the Trump - Putin meeting that may promote US - Russia trade and boost the risk appetite of global capital markets, and China's anti - involution and steady - growth policies will effectively boost the demand for the non - ferrous metal market. However, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value and social retail sales in July were slightly lower than expected. Fundamentally, there are continuous disruptions at overseas mines, the inventory accumulation speed in the domestic off - season is slow, and no large amount of US copper has flowed out. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level fluctuation in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - LME copper price on August 15 was $9,760.00/ton, down $8.00 (-0.08%) from August 8; COMEX copper price was 448.9 cents/pound, up 0.4 cents (0.09%); SHFE copper price was 79,060 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan (0.73%); international copper price was 70,180 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan (0.76%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.04 to 8.10, and the LME spot premium/discount was -$93.75/ton, down $24.20 (34.80%) [4]. - As of August 15, LME inventory was 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); COMEX inventory was 267,195 short tons, up 3,055 short tons (1.16%); SHFE inventory was 86,343 tons, up 4,428 tons (5.41%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,600 tons, up 5,100 tons (6.75%); total inventory was 589,938 tons, up 12,533 tons (2.17%) [7] Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level due to the unexpected increase in the US PPI cooling the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, Codelco's accident - hit mine is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity, and the domestic off - season inventory accumulation is limited [8]. - As of August 15, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 589,000 tons, and the global inventory continued to rebound. The LME copper inventory was basically flat, and the cancelled warrant ratio remained at 7.4%; the SHFE inventory increased slightly by 4,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season was relatively limited; the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.1 [8]. - In the macro - aspect, the US July PPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The core PPI rose to 3.7%, much higher than the previous value of 2.6%. After the data was released, the September interest - rate cut expectation slightly declined. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year [9][10]. - In terms of supply and demand, most areas of Codelco's Teniente project have resumed production, but the affected area is a new area for capacity improvement in the next 3 - 5 years. The Panama copper mine has basically no hope of resuming production this year. The domestic spot TC has slightly rebounded to -$38/ton, and the mine - end interference rate is still rising. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. However, affected by the increasingly tight supply of cold materials, non - CSPT smelters have started to slightly reduce production. From the demand side, the construction of power grid investment projects has slightly weakened, dragging down the operating rate of cable enterprises. The overall domestic demand has slightly decelerated month - on - month but still has resilience year - on - year [11] Industry News - Codelco has restarted the underground mining and processing operations of its EI Teniente mine in Chile. Eight underground areas that were evaluated as safe by the mining and labor departments resumed production last weekend, and the smelter also restarted. Four other mining areas near the accident site on July 31 are still closed, and relevant investigations are underway. The eight areas that resumed production account for about 82% of the total production [13]. - Chilean state - owned mining enterprise ENAMI has officially launched an investment recruitment plan to attract investors for a $1.7 - billion smelter. After the renovation, the annual processing capacity of the smelter will reach 850,000 tons of copper concentrates, and the annual production capacity will be 240,000 tons of copper cathodes [14]. - The official data shows that Zambia's copper production in the second quarter declined, posing a risk to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. If the first - quarter production is not revised, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. The production in the second quarter was affected by problems at four producers [15] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, LME copper premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - period spread, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][22][24][28][32]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a complex situation with both supply - side and demand - side factors at play. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. - There is still room for debate on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary - The report analyzes the copper market from multiple aspects including macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory changes. It concludes that short - term copper prices will remain volatile with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. 02 Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Domestic TC is low and stable, and the accumulation of social inventories is limited [7]. - The continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, such as consumption loan subsidies and investment in special bonds, is expected to boost copper demand [12][14]. Bearish Factors - The US PPI data shows that inflation may be more persistent, which slightly reduces the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates [9]. 03 Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - US inflation data shows that in July, CPI was lower than expected while core CPI was pulled up by commodities. The PPI soared both year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations [9]. - China's domestic growth - stabilizing policies continue to be implemented, including consumer loan subsidies and investment in special bonds [14]. Supply - side Data - China's copper ore imports in July remained stable. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in July was 2.56 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [15][16]. - The tightness at the mine end continues. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee remains low and stable. Overseas supply - side disturbances have increased slightly, but some situations have subsided [18][19]. - The output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. In July, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 3.47% and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. SMM expects a slight decline in domestic refined copper output in August [21][22]. - China's scrap copper imports in June decreased slightly. The import volume was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand increased, while that from the US decreased significantly [24][25]. Demand - side Data - The power sector is growing rapidly. As of the end of June, the country's cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [31][32]. - The demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area and new - start area also declined [33][34]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. In July, the output of new energy vehicles was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 8.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.9%. The output of automobiles in July was 2.51 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 18.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [36][38]. - The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9% [39][41]. Inventory Data - Copper inventories in various regions have increased. LME copper inventories have slowed down in the rate of accumulation, SHFE copper inventories have slightly increased, COMEX inventories have continued to accumulate, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventories have also increased slightly [42][43]. Price Data - The premium of domestic copper spot has widened, and the premium or discount of foreign copper has also widened. On August 14, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 170 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 88.75 US dollars/ton [45]. 04后市研判 - Short - term copper prices will continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [48].