秘鲁铜运输继续受到抗议者堵路的干扰。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current spot TC price of copper concentrate remains low, but the mid-year long-term contract price signed by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is $0/ton, which is better than the current spot price. - Due to the premium of Comex copper price, LME and domestic inventories are continuously flowing to the US market, leading to persistent squeeze pressure. Coupled with the recent increase in risk sentiment, it is favorable for copper prices. - The operation of copper varieties is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips, with the buying range suggested between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 80,620/ton and closed at RMB 80,540/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at RMB 80,560/ton and closed at RMB 80,900/ton, up 0.35% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand. Although there is a demand for low-price purchases, the overall situation is not ideal. The supply in Changzhou is tight, and the transaction is better than that in Shanghai. It is expected that the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the downward space is limited [2]. - **Important Information Summary** - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, and the Challenger job - cuts reached 47,999, the lowest since December 2024. Interest rate futures almost fully price in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. China's National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over RMB 300 billion for the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025 [3]. - **Mine End**: India will send geologists to Zambia for copper and cobalt exploration. Chile's Congress passed the "Investment Project Approval Acceleration Act", which is expected to shorten project approval time by 30% - 70%. Peruvian non - formal miners' roadblocks have disrupted copper transportation [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: From January to May 2025, Russia's exports of basic metals to China increased significantly, with copper exports up 66% year - on - year [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 74.01%, and that of copper cable enterprises dropped to 70.18%. Some enterprises faced losses due to rising raw material prices and had to cut production. The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, up 29% year - on - year [6][7]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 93,250 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 324 tons to 25,097 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 30 was 126,100 tons, a change of - 4,000 tons from the previous week [7]. Strategy - **Copper Varieties**: Buy hedges on dips, with the buying range between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton [8]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8].

秘鲁铜运输遭到抗议者阻断道路的干扰。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is mainly concerned about reciprocal tariffs, and the results and implementation of the 232 investigation may be postponed. The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't led to a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. The Fed's interest - rate cut is expected in September, October, or December. - Due to various factors such as mine production disruptions and smelter operations, the production and import of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper in July may change, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreasing. - Amid the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper enterprises may decline. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and pressure levels [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't caused a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. Trump may appoint a successor to Fed Chairman Powell in advance, and the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates is September, October, or December [3] 3.2 Upstream - Rio Tinto will pay nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit regarding the development delay of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia. The western side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under the control of a mining company resumed production in late June, but the drainage on the eastern side may last until September, reducing the planned mineral copper production in 2025 from 62 - 68 to 37 - 42 tons. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has shut down. The copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources in Namibia has stopped production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile has suspended production. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter may be put into production in June 2025 with an annual output of 600,000 tons of cathode copper. - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to conduct a 6 - week maintenance on its copper smelter in late October. Pan - Pacific Copper may cut production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Moura Isa copper smelter may shut down in the second half of 2025. Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan's Waryagba smelter will resume production in late June and reach full - load production in December. India's Jhagadia copper smelter resumed feeding on June 18 but still faces the risk of cancellation of long - term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates [3][4] 3.3 Investment Strategy - Due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, and the decline in electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] 3.4 Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 80,640, with an increase of 770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 113,449 lots, an increase of 12,504 lots. The open interest was 223,983 lots, an increase of 11,072 lots. The inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 24,773 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons. - The Shanghai copper basis was - 435, a decrease of 555 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in different regions also changed. For example, the spot premium of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou increased by 25, and the spot discount of electrolytic copper in North China decreased by 30. - The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange was 9,943, an increase of 65 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 91,250 tons. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.099, a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day. The total inventory increased by 2,858 tons [2]

232 条款落地前，美国已从非美地区转移约 40 万吨铜，预计未来一到 两个月或增加 20 万吨，导致非美市场供应紧张。该条款落地后铜价可 能回调，但幅度预计不大，或提供买入机会，LME 铜价第一目标位为 11,000 美元/吨，国内铜价为 81,000-82,000 元/吨。 机构通过跟踪 17 家主要铜矿企业（占全球供应 55%）及引入 Tapir 铜 矿发运数据，将全年铜矿增速调整至 0.6%，增量约 13 万吨。同时，考 虑到关税和高利率的影响，消费增速也调整为 0.6%，全年铜平衡表仍 显示紧缺格局。 铜在有色金属板块中基本面最强劲，矿端供应受限，废铜进口因 CL 价 差下降，电铜因 232 条款现货供应紧张。商品投资者倾向于增配铜，对 冲或配置其他板块，长期基金也高度关注铜市场。 当前市场环境下，铜价整体呈现易涨难跌的趋势，得益于其强劲的基本 面提供的长期趋势支撑。自 4 月 2 日以来的反弹中，铜价在各类商品中 表现突出，较早触底反弹，并具备相互矛盾的配合因素，支撑其继续上 行。 Q&A 当前铜市场的主要驱动因素是什么，以及对 LME 和国内库存有何影响？ 当前铜市场的主要驱动因素是美国 232 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises are affected by the implementation of the reverse invoicing policy and generally believe that the supply of goods may become tight in the future. However, the demand side is not very optimistic. Although the supply and demand are slightly weak, the macro factors are relatively changeable, and the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. Therefore, it is still recommended to mainly use buy hedging on dips, with the buying range of the Cu2507 contract suggested to be between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,810 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,720 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on June 25, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,530 - 78,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of flat to 60 yuan/ton for the 2507 contract and an average premium of 30 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The intraday spread between nearby contracts narrowed to 130 - 150 yuan. The market supply of goods tightened, and the premium stabilized. It is expected that the premium will remain stable today, but some tight varieties may rise [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical aspects: Trump said that he thought the war between Israel and Iran was over, but the conflict might break out again, perhaps soon, and he would not give up sanctions on Iran. He did not think Iran would restart its nuclear program. The US will hold talks with Iran next week, and he did not think the nuclear deal was necessary. Domestically, the Iranian defense minister arrived in China to attend the SCO defense ministers' meeting [3] Mining End - New World Resources' land reclamation plan for its Antler copper mine project in Arizona has been approved. With the pending state-level permits, the company can start construction on the private land that constitutes most of the Antler project. The Arizona Mining Supervision Bureau approved the plan and accepted a total of A$9.01 million in relevant financial guarantees, which must be finalized within 60 days. New World, which is in a takeover bidding war, plans to meet this requirement through a guaranteed bond arranged with its preferred insurance company. The Antler project is located in a remote area in northern Arizona and is planned as an underground mining operation. Magna Mining received C$500,000 from the Ontario government for the development of its Crean Hill nickel-copper-platinum group metal mine in the brownfield project. Magna said the funds will be used for metallurgical research on improving the recovery of precious metals in the Crean Hill contact zone and footwall mineralization, which is part of its 2024 surface bulk sampling plan. In September last year, the company released the latest economic evaluation of the project, based on more than 30 million tons of mineral resources (including 14.5 million tons of high-grade underground resources) that meet the NI 43 - 101 standard, calculating a post-tax net present value (8% discount rate) of C$194.1 million and a mine life of 13 years [4] Smelting and Import - In April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, while in March, there was a surplus of 12,000 tons. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year. In April, the global refined copper production was 2.37 million tons, and the consumption was 2.42 million tons [5] Consumption - Recently, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month-on-month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The mid-year production plan put pressure on processing fees, and the resumption of production by some enterprises drove the output to rebound. The raw material inventory decreased to 34,650 tons (-3.08%), while the finished product inventory increased to 68,350 tons (+7.38%), reflecting weak terminal demand. It is expected that the operating rate will slightly rise to 76.23% next week, and the high copper price may continue to suppress the improvement of demand. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased to 73.26% (a month-on-month decrease of 3.04 percentage points), mainly due to weak terminal demand and the high copper price suppressing procurement. The finished product inventory decreased to 21,190 tons (-5.02%), and the raw material inventory increased to 17,360 tons (+1.58%). It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decrease to 71.64% next week, and the demand decline in the construction industry is particularly significant [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,200 tons to 94,675 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21,470 tons. On June 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 129,600 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shortage at the raw material end continues, with limited cold material supplements, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons. The pressure at the raw material end will further reduce processing fees and impact downstream industries. - The processing profit of the smelting industry continues to deteriorate, with an initial risk of industry - wide losses. The scope of active production cuts overseas is expanding, and the market is focusing on domestic smelting trends. The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons. - The marginal growth of traditional demand is weakening, the new - energy demand is slowing down, while the demand from emerging industries is growing strongly. The marginal growth of global copper demand in 2025 is adjusted down to 700,000 - 800,000 metric tons. - Macro factors center around the weakening of the US dollar, and policies from various countries are expected to stimulate the economy. The fundamentals are in a stalemate, with greater potential for supply constraints. In a low - inventory state, the regional balance needs time to recover. It is recommended to focus on structural market trends, with the low point of copper prices in the second half of the year unlikely to break through 74,000 yuan/ton, and the high point may exceed 83,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material End 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - In Chile, the copper supply is in a recovery cycle. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 3.5% year - on - year to 1.752 million metric tons, with an absolute increase of 59,000 metric tons. The government expects a 3% increase in production in 2025 to 5.672 million metric tons, but there are uncertainties. Large - scale projects like Escondida have significant production increases, while some mines like Collahuasi and Anglo American Sur have lower - than - normal production [19][21] - In Peru, the copper mine is in a restorative growth period. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 887,000 metric tons, with an absolute increase of about 41,000 metric tons. The government expects the annual production to be around 2.8 million metric tons. Some projects have production differentiations, and the government's policies to stimulate production have limited effects for now [29][31] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the copper production was in a high - growth period but has faced challenges this year. Geopolitical issues, infrastructure weaknesses, and resource nationalism have affected production. The output of the Kamoa - Kakula project has been significantly reduced, and the production forecast for 2025 has been greatly lowered [34][35][36] - In China, copper production has been in a recovery phase since 2022 but is constrained by factors such as ore grade decline and aging mines. The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 is estimated to be 250,000 - 350,000 metric tons, with different trends in different regions [37][40] - From a company perspective, the production of major mining companies in 2024 increased by 3.3% to 17.05 million metric tons. In 2025, the growth is expected to be 2.1% to 17.41 million metric tons, mainly due to disruptions in African mines [42][43] - Regarding new projects, the marginal contribution of new global copper mines before 2028 is decreasing. Policy instability and external environment changes are the main risks for project delays or cancellations [46] 3.1.2 Recycled Materials - Overseas, due to the shortage of copper concentrate, smelters are relying more on cold materials. European smelters are competing for scrap copper, and India is increasing scrap copper imports. The US has new scrap - copper - based processing enterprises, and its scrap copper export ratio is expected to decline [50][52] - In China, smelters' demand for cold materials has increased, but supply has been restricted. From January to May, scrap copper imports decreased by nearly 2% year - on - year to 962,000 physical tons, mainly due to tariff policies and overseas demand. Domestic scrap copper supply is also constrained by fiscal and tax policies and profit margins. The supply of anode copper has also decreased [55][59] 3.1.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2024 was 530,000 - 550,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons in 2025. The copper raw material gap in China is expected to widen in 2025, and copper prices can regulate cold material supply. Attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policies [62][63] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Domestic Market - The shortage of copper concentrate has led to a decline in processing fees. If the long - term processing fee is set at a low level, Chinese smelters may face industry - wide losses. Sulfuric acid price increases have provided some support, but there are uncertainties. The planned production increase of major listed smelters in 2025 is to 8.5 million tons, but raw material shortages may limit production. The marginal growth of China's refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 600,000 - 700,000 metric tons [70][77][83] 3.2.2 Overseas Market - In Chile, the decline in refined copper production is significant, with an expected 10% decrease in 2025. Similar situations exist in Mexico. Overseas smelters are showing a trend of production cuts, mainly due to raw material constraints and processing fee decreases. The risk of a decline in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is increasing [86][91][92] 3.2.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2024 was 650,000 - 700,000 metric tons, and it is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons in 2025. The transfer of the raw material shortage to smelters takes time. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid prices and cold materials on smelters [94][95] 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1 Macro Level - From an economic cycle perspective, the global economy is in a transition from "recession" to "recovery," with different economic situations in different countries. The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the Fed's monetary policy shift is uncertain. The US dollar's credit cycle is weakening, and copper's financial attributes are expected to increase [97] - From a manufacturing cycle perspective, the global manufacturing PMI is around 50, and the recovery will be more differentiated. Tariff policies are the core external factor affecting manufacturing [102] - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit is expected to expand, and the US dollar will continue to depreciate. Copper will play a more important role in resource currency, and investment in copper will provide support [102] 3.3.2 Traditional Demand: China - In the power industry, grid investment is expected to grow steadily, with a focus on UHV projects and distribution network upgrades. Power source investment growth is slowing down, but there may be new drivers in 2026. Overseas exports of electrical equipment have been strong, but are affected by external policies [106][112][115] - In the home appliance industry, domestic air - conditioner sales and production increased in the first four months of 2025. Domestic sales may decline in the third quarter, while overseas sales are relatively strong but face risks from tariff policies. High inventory levels may limit production [117][119] - In the real estate industry, policies are being strengthened, but the industry is still in a bottom - building phase and will drag down copper demand this year, with a possible return to positive demand in 2026 - 2027 [120][121] - In the transportation industry, domestic automobile production is growing strongly, with new - energy vehicles as the main growth driver. However, it is affected by policy subsidies and consumer income expectations. China's automobile exports are facing bottlenecks [122][124] - The marginal growth of China's traditional copper demand in 2024 was 255,000 - 475,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 132,000 - 392,000 metric tons in 2025, with risks in the second half of the year [132] 3.3.3 Traditional Demand: Overseas - In the US, policies have increased inflation expectations and economic uncertainties. The real estate and durable - goods consumption markets show a downward trend but not a significant decline. The US government's policies on power infrastructure and renewable energy will drive copper demand growth [133][136][137]

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan's copper smelter in Arizona is one of the last three operating copper smelters in the U.S., highlighting the challenges faced in rebuilding the domestic mineral supply chain [1][3] - The U.S. has significant copper reserves, estimated at approximately 47 million tons, ranking seventh globally, yet the average time from discovery to production is 29 years, second only to Zambia [1][7] - The operational costs of U.S. smelters are about three times higher than those overseas, leading many miners to process copper abroad due to lower costs and higher capacity [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. copper industry peaked in 1997 with 35 mines and 11 smelters producing 1.9 million tons of copper annually, but now only has 25 mines and 2 smelters [7] - China dominates the copper refining market, processing 44% of the world's copper and producing approximately 13 times more refined copper than the U.S. [6][7] - The Resolution copper project in Arizona has recently made progress after a lawsuit from indigenous groups was dismissed, and it has been prioritized for federal approval [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the copper industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the production growth of overseas large copper mining companies is low, and there are frequent disruptions. The lack of new large copper mining projects in the coming years will continue to constrain copper supply [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Production in Major Producing Countries - Chile's copper production from January to April 2025 reached 1.752 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.57% (+60,300 tons). The growth is primarily driven by the Escondida project due to higher mining intensity and improved ore grades. Peru's copper production during the same period was 892,000 metric tons, up 5.59% (+47,200 tons), with significant contributions from the Las Bambas and Toromocho mines [4][18]. 2. Overseas Copper Mining Companies' Production - The total copper production of 15 major copper mining companies in Q1 2025 was 3.012 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1% (+3,000 tons). However, excluding three Chinese companies, the production of 12 overseas companies fell by 3.79% (-96,100 tons) to 2.436 million tons. Notably, Freeport and Glencore experienced significant declines of 20% and 29.95%, respectively [5][9]. 3. Growth in Chinese Copper Mining Companies - Three Chinese companies reported substantial production increases in Q1 2025: Minmetals Resources (+76.1%), Zijin Mining (+9.5%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (+15.7%). The growth for Minmetals was largely attributed to the Las Bambas mine in Peru, which produced 95,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70.9% (+39,700 tons) [7]. 4. Future Project Developments - The report notes a scarcity of new or expanded copper mining projects. The Salvador project by Codelco is currently ramping up production, while First Quantum's Kansanshi expansion is expected to contribute additional capacity starting in H2 2025. Other long-term projects include Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi and Antofagasta's Centinela Phase II, with expected production increases in the coming years [8]. 5. Production Summary of Major Companies - Codelco's Q1 2025 production was 324,000 tons, a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year. BHP's total production was 513,200 tons, up 10.18%, primarily due to the Escondida mine. Freeport's production fell to 393,720 tons, down 20% year-on-year, while Glencore's production dropped to 167,900 tons, a decrease of 29.95% [47][54][60][69].

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-13 月差盈利让持货商积极出货 铜价陷入震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-12，沪铜主力合约开于 78740元/吨，收于 78610元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.86%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,600元/吨，收于 78,580 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.13%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日日内平水铜价差收敛，月差盈利令持货商积极出货。早盘祥光、JCC等升水60-80元/吨，此时铁 峰、金冠、紫金等升水10-20元/吨迅速成交。进入主流交易时段，祥光日内价格迅速回落至升水40-50元/吨，甚至 低价存在少量30元/吨货源。此时其他货源趋向紧俏，紫金、铁峰、红鹭等均有成交至升水30-40元/吨。 展望明日， 铜价走跌下游采购情绪向好，但目前BACK结构下游更倾向换月后采购。于持货商而言，目前贴水出货意愿几无， 预计今日市场依旧小升水成交。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，6月7日当周初请失业金人数录得24.8万人，高于预期的预期24万人，为2024年10月5日当周以来 新高。美国5月核心PPI月率录得0.1%，低于预期的0.30%。交易员 ...