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大越期货沪铝早报-20250811
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:32
沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 :祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面:碳中和控制产能扩张,下游需求不强劲,房地产延续疲软,宏观短期情绪多变;中性。 2、基差:现货20650,基差-35,贴水期货,中性。 3、库存:上期所铝库存较上周减3913吨至113614吨;中性。 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线上,20均线向上运行;偏多。 5、主力持仓:主力净持仓多,多减;偏多。 6、预期:碳中和催发铝行业变革,长期利多铝价,多空交织,铝价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多: 利空: 逻辑: 现货价格 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动,影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观,高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 ...
下游行业疲弱格局难解 沪铝等待反弹后沽空机会
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-10 23:26
截至2025年8月8日当周,沪铝期货主力合约收于20685元/吨,周K线收阳,持仓量环比上周减持11717 手。 中辉期货:宏观情绪有所缓和。产业上,7月份中国电解铝行业含税完全成本为16261元/吨,环比下降 1.7%。8月最新国内电解铝锭库存56.4万吨,环比上周上涨2万吨;国内主流消费地铝棒库存14.25万 吨,环比上周微降0.45万吨。需求端,国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比下滑至58.6%,下游行业疲 弱格局难解。策略推荐:建议沪铝短期反弹抛空机会为主,注意淡季铝锭垒库进度,主力运行区间 【20000-20900】。风险提示:关注全球贸易及关税政策变化。 8月7日,据统计上海保税区电解铝库存为91300吨,广东保税区库存20000吨,总计库存111300吨,库存 较上周增加3800吨。 宁夏发改委制定了《宁夏回族自治区2025年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重分解实施方案》。方案指出, 按国家相关要求,电解铝、钢铁、水泥、多晶硅及数据中心等重点用能行业绿电比例分别不低于 34.2%、34.2%、34.2%、34.2%、80%。 机构观点汇总: 建信期货:基本面上,受几内亚雨季影响8月铝土矿供应有趋紧态势, ...
累库趋势难改,期价维持弱势震荡
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 14:13
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of supply - side contraction policies for alumina still needs observation. Given the low proportion of backward capacity and new production coming online this year, the over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. With the ebb of short - term commodity buying sentiment and the alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index had risen 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. In mid - and early July, the expectation of supply - side contraction policies, a strong commodity buying atmosphere, and low warrant registration volumes drove the futures price up. As sentiment faded and the spot market loosened, the price dropped due to the oversupply situation [12][23]. - **Spot Price**: In July, the "anti - involution" policy expectation led to a sharp increase in alumina spot prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 3325 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, 3225 yuan/ton, 3215 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton, and 3520 yuan/ton respectively, up 155 yuan/ton, 145 yuan/ton, 135 yuan/ton, 125 yuan/ton, 165 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton from early July [12][20]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory had increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [12][75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply - side contraction policy implementation needs further observation. The over - capacity pattern of alumina may persist. With the ebb of short - term buying sentiment and the alleviation of spot shortages, short positions on rallies are recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Futures and Spot End - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index rose 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. The early - July price increase was driven by policy expectations and low warrant registration, while the subsequent decline was due to the return to the fundamental logic of oversupply [23]. - **Basis**: The basis decreased significantly this month and then gradually recovered. As of August 8, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 45 yuan/ton over the alumina main contract price [23]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts first rose and then fell. As of August 8, it was - 12 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Raw Material End - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of August 8, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian bauxite was 69 US dollars/ton. Due to the impact of the rainy season and previous bans on Guinea's shipments, the arrival volume of imported ores is expected to decline, and ore prices are expected to be supported in the short term [29]. - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 519 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 3039 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. In June, bauxite imports were 1812 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 10340 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68% [31][33]. - **Guinea Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 7967 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recent low shipments from Guinea may lead to a decline in imports after June, but the annual supply remains in surplus [36]. - **Bauxite Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on shipping schedules and seasonal shipments from Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to tighten in July and experience significant inventory reduction in September and October. If the AXIS mining area does not resume production this year, China's bauxite import growth is expected to decline from 4000 tons to 2000 tons. However, due to the large surplus in the first five months and sufficient inventories in most alumina plants, the basic production of alumina enterprises is not expected to be significantly affected [37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory reached a new low of 1455 tons. China's bauxite port inventory was 2819 tons, and the inventory accumulation trend slowed down. With the expected decline in ore arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease [40]. 4. Supply End - **Alumina Production**: In June 2025, alumina production was 733 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34% and a month - on - month increase of 3.14%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 4349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.01% [47]. - **Operating Capacity**: In June 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 9000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.36% and a month - on - month increase of 6.38%. The recovery of smelting profits led to the resumption of previously shut - down capacity [50]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, the total new alumina production capacity is expected to be 1430 tons. Some projects have been put into production and are gradually releasing output, while the fourth - quarter new production has uncertainties [51][52]. - **Smelting Profit**: Based on the August 8 spot price, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinea ores is 395 yuan/ton and 440 yuan/ton respectively. The profit in Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore is 185 yuan/ton and 235 yuan/ton respectively [54]. 5. Import and Export - **Alumina Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 6.97 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 6.75 tons in the previous month to 10.13 tons, and the export volume decreased from 20.78 tons to 17.1 tons. The cumulative net export in the first six months was 107.5 tons. A small net export is expected to become the norm [58]. - **Import Window**: As of August 8, the FOB price of Australian alumina rose 13 US dollars/ton to 374 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 72 yuan/ton. The import window remained closed [61]. 6. Demand End - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 377.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 2560 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [66]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Utilization Rate**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4419 tons, an increase of 16 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% month - on - month to 97.24% [69]. 7. Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [75]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41 tons to 2.62 tons compared to early July, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.98 tons to 8.5 tons. As the spot market loosens, the registration volume of warehouse receipts is expected to increase [77].
铝类市场周报:供给小增需求暂弱,铝类或将有所承压-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 11:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material end is affected by the rainy season in Guinea and mining area disturbances, with a potential decrease in bauxite shipments and rising prices. Domestic port inventories may decrease. Supply has a slight increase due to policy - related price increases and profit repair for smelters. Demand also shows a small increase as electrolytic aluminum production slightly rises. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is high with firm alumina prices and high - oscillating aluminum prices, resulting in good smelter profits and positive production willingness. Supply has a small increase due to previous technical renovation and capacity replacement projects, but production is approaching the industry ceiling. Demand is weak during the off - season, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption. Short - term inventory may accumulate slightly, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs squeeze smelter profits, and production may decrease due to cost - profit issues and the off - season. Demand is weak during the off - season, with cautious purchasing by consumers. Inventory is slightly accumulating [6]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trade the main contract of Shanghai aluminum lightly with a weak - oscillating view, and trade the main contract of alumina lightly by going long at low prices. Trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with an oscillating view. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.85% to 20,685 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated, with a weekly increase of 0.25% to 3,170 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.95% to 20,110 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: See the core views above [4][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movements**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,695 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 1; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,610.5 dollars/ton, up 1.87% from August 1. The alumina futures price was 3,161 yuan/ton, down 2.23% from August 1. The cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 20,110 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from August 1 [9][13]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 8, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.1 from August 1. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 1; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,805 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from August 1 [10][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's position was 587,075 lots, up 1.6% from August 1; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 6,713 lots from August 1 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 1. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from August 1. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from August 1, with a spot discount of 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, up 1.84% from July 31; Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,614 tons, down 3.33% from last week; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 506,000 tons, up 3.9% from July 31 [36]. - **Raw Materials**: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.36 million tons, down 40,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [39][45]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. The import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 192,300 tons, up 58.78% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.2493 million tons, up 2.46% year - on - year; the export was 19,600 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 85,900 tons. In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year. The output of aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons [48][51][55][59][62][65]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year. From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105, up 11.43% year - on - year [68][71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight weak - oscillating trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].
天山铝业:石河子市锦汇能源投资有限公司累计质押股数约为1.73亿股
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-08 09:04
天山铝业(SZ 002532,收盘价:9.68元)8月8日晚间发布公告称,截至本公告日,石河子市锦隆能源 产业链有限公司累计质押股数为3.7亿股,合计占其所持股份比例为40.53%。石河子市锦汇能源投资有 限公司累计质押股数约为1.73亿股,合计占其所持股份比例为50%。曾超懿累计质押股数约为2.15亿 股,合计占其所持股份比例为54.64%。曾超林累计质押股数约为1.37亿股,合计占其所持股份比例为 45.42%。 2024年1至12月份,天山铝业的营业收入构成为:铝行业占比100.0%。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
多重变量交织难改氧化铝过剩实质
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 06:10
研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 封帆 联系人 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|有色专题报告 2025-08-07 多重变量交织难改氧化铝过剩实质 报告摘要 结论和核心观点: 策略 单边:逢高卖出保值 风险 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3080232 投资咨询号:Z0016047 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3046665 投资咨询号:Z0014806 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03139777 投资咨询号:Z0021579 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03114162 1、 几内亚矿权扰动更多来源于利益博弈而非限制出口,对中国出口量难有实质性影 响。预计全年进口铝土矿供给增量达到 3500-4000 万吨,叠加国产矿增量,预计中 国铝土矿供给增量可达到 4500 万吨左右。全年铝土矿从 2024 年紧缺 1600 万吨转 变为 ...
建信期货铝日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:51
Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Fed's easing expectations support the rebound of aluminum prices. On the 6th, SHFE aluminum closed higher, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. Due to uneven arrivals, the daily inventory decreased slightly, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE aluminum closed higher on the 6th, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. [8] - The daily inventory decreased slightly due to uneven arrivals, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. [8] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. [8] - The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. [8] - Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Right Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government, with a board of directors, legal personality, and financial and management autonomy. The 690.20-square-kilometer mining area previously occupied by GAC has been awarded to NMC for 25 years. Previously, EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 14 million tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9][10] - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant in the US**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum annually. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing to make railings, window and door frames, and structural components for automobiles, ships, airplanes, trailers, etc. The plant is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will nearly double the primary aluminum production in the US. [10] - **Change of Bauxite Mining Right in China**: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine was changed. The mining right holder is Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mine's mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area is 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year. [10] - **Vedanta's Q1 FY2026 Results**: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April - June 2025) declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the impact of falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Affected by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US trade policies, the benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. Falling commodity prices often affect the sales prices and profits of mining companies. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's consolidated net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), analysts' average expectation for Vedanta's profit was 34.83 billion rupees. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. Vedanta's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: According to customs data, in June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090 and 76011010) [10][11]
铝周报:炒作退烧需求不足,沪铝后市震荡偏弱-20250807
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was weak due to China's July economic data falling short of expectations, the US announcing full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data being disappointing. However, the market sentiment improved with optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries. Currently, the spot demand for aluminum is insufficient, and the subsequent trend of Shanghai aluminum may be volatile and weak. The speculation in the aluminum market has subsided, and this round of speculation may end [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Background and Sentiment - China's July economic data was below expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was poor with previous two - month data significantly revised down. This led to an increased risk of US economic recession and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar tumbled and the RMB soared at night, causing the market to weaken. Optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day [1]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,525, and the spot price was 20,480, with a spot discount of - 45 points. The spot turned to a discount of - 40 yuan this week, and spot trading was poor. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased this week, while the social inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and spot consumption was weak. The LME spot inventory increased this week, and the LME spot turned to a discount of - 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices rose significantly to 8.06, indicating that the external market performed weaker than the domestic market [1]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil and LME aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai aluminum opened lower and closed higher, rising slightly and closing at 20,525. The technical form improved slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Data Monitoring - From July 29 to August 4, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, the spot premium/discount changed from 0 to - 40, the LME situation also changed, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract increased from 7.83 to 8.06 [3].
宏观落地,空窗期内警惕价格高位回落风险
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 14:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its late - July meeting, but the probability of a September rate cut increased, with greater internal divergence. The non - farm payrolls data on Friday night was significantly below expectations, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in precious metal prices. In China, relevant meetings have concluded, and subsequent policies are awaited [6]. - As macro events gradually land, there is likely to be a macro - policy window period, and the market is more likely to return to fundamental logic. Attention should be paid to hedging opportunities during the off - season [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's alumina total capacity was 11,292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.56% and a month - on - month increase of 50 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,315 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.14% and a month - on - month increase of 365 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina production was 774.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The cumulative production this year was 4,515.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In June 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 82.49, at a relatively high - middle position in history, returning to the same level as last year and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. There is still significant upward space, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. - In June 2025, China's alumina net exports were 6.87 million tons, with a continuous net - export pattern for 15 months and a significant month - on - month decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net exports were 107.18 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The Guinea bauxite price increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $73.5 per ton, a $0.5 increase from last week. The CIF average price of Australian bauxite was $69 per ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - The caustic soda price was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,834.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.1 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 426.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.1 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina export profit was 99 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 24 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the port inventory of alumina was 2.5 million tons, a 1.2 - million - ton decrease from July 24 [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,520.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58% and a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million tons. The in - production capacity was 4,415.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.38, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative production this year was 2,237.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [48]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.68, a year - on - year increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. It is at a relatively high position in history, with limited upward space and low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 17.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.86 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative net imports were 116.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77 million tons [56]. - On August 1, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 19,955 yuan per ton, a 245 - yuan decrease compared to July 24. The refined - scrap spread was 1,635 yuan per ton, a 75 - yuan increase compared to July 24 [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 15.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 101.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88% [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product production was 587.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.17 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 3,276.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 166.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4 million tons. The cumulative production this year was 909.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The domestic alumina spot price stabilized with a slight rebound, and the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The recent electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,882 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 3,728 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 318 yuan per ton [79]. - Currently, the electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,377 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week narrowing of 228 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 31, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 54.5 million tons, a 3.3 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 1 - million - ton increase during the week [85]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 54.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.8 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.5 million tons. The absolute value is at a relatively low position in history, returning to the same level as in 2023 [88]. - As of July 31, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 13.99 million tons, a 0.21 - million - ton week - on - week increase and a 0.14 - million - ton decrease during the week. The inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, with little weekly change [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,490 - 20,690 yuan per ton, a 310 - yuan week - on - week decrease. The spot price against the 08 contract showed a high - level decline in both the spot and futures markets, with the spot turning to a discount and the discount widening. Due to the deepening off - season, the downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was average [94].
天山铝业:曾超懿累计质押股数约为2.43亿股
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-05 09:55
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 2024年1至12月份,天山铝业的营业收入构成为:铝行业占比100.0%。 天山铝业(SZ 002532,收盘价:9.17元)8月5日晚间发布公告称,截至本公告日,石河子市锦隆能源 产业链有限公司累计质押股数为3.7亿股,占其所持股份比例为40.52%。石河子市锦汇能源投资有限公 司累计质押股数约为1.73亿股,占其所持股份比例为50%。曾超懿累计质押股数约为2.43亿股,占其所 持股份比例为61.79%。曾超林累计质押股数约为2.22亿股,占其所持股份比例为73.36%。 ...