Macro - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the third cut in 2025, with expectations of only one more cut in 2026 [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices saw a short-term surge, and spot gold prices increased by $20 [1] Industry - Micron's NAND prices surged nearly 50% in a single month, with storage module manufacturers indicating that NAND shortages will become widespread after Q2 next year [2] - The rapid increase in NAND prices is attributed to unprecedented AI demand consuming storage chip capacity, potentially leading to a new round of price hikes in consumer electronics [2] - There are rumors of interest subsidy policies in the real estate sector, with Vanke's stock hitting the limit up, and several cities already implementing such policies [4] - If the interest subsidy policy is enacted, it could effectively reduce loan pressure for homebuyers and stimulate potential housing demand [4] Company - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye announced mid-term dividend distributions totaling approximately 40 billion yuan, with Moutai distributing on December 19 and Wuliangye on December 18 [3] - The high dividends from leading liquor companies reflect their robust financial health and commitment to rewarding investors, although high dividends should be considered alongside other investment value metrics [3]

Group 1: Company Performance - On December 10, Falunsheng (000890) experienced a significant surge in stock price, with a large order of 38,500 shares executed in just three minutes, amounting to approximately 18.65 million yuan, representing nearly 20% of the total trading volume for the day [1][2] - The stock price rose by 8.74% during the closing auction phase, with an increase exceeding 10% at one point [1][2] - Investors expressed confusion regarding the sudden price increase, with many questioning the reasons behind it in online forums [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply and structural demand resilience, as domestic production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with new capacity additions being extremely limited [6][7] - Recent breakthroughs in aluminum metal battery technology by Tianjin University, specifically the development of a low-corrosive "organic dichloride" electrolyte, may enhance the application of aluminum products in the new energy sector [4][6] - The average increase in aluminum stocks this year has been 48.13%, with several stocks doubling in value, indicating strong market performance [7][10] Group 3: Stock Valuation - As of December 10, 11 aluminum-related stocks have a rolling price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating potential undervaluation in the sector [7][8] - Ming Tai Aluminum, with a rolling P/E ratio of 10, is positioned as a leader in aluminum processing and recycling applications, focusing on new energy battery materials and automotive lightweight aluminum [8] Group 4: Financing Trends - Data shows that since December, 10 aluminum stocks have seen net financing purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, with four stocks surpassing 100 million yuan in net purchases [10]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 盘面价格下跌氧化铝仓单成交平平 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21880元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21740元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-230元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21770元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-200元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-09日沪铝主力合约开于22210元/吨，收于--元/吨，较上一交易日变化-370元/吨，最高价 达22210元/吨，最低价达到21735元/吨。全天交易日成交255735手，全天交易日持仓195726手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67863 吨，较上一交易日变化127吨，LME铝库存523300吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-09SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2740元/吨，河南价格录得 2820元/ ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price center of aluminum is expected to move upward, while alumina will continue to face pressure, and cast aluminum alloy lacks upward momentum [1]. - The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, and OpenAI plans to release the new model GPT - 5.2 ahead of schedule [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22,345 yuan, up 285 yuan from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,901 US dollars, up 13 US dollars. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract have changed compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,555 yuan, down 60 yuan. The trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,190 yuan, up 120 yuan. The trading volume and open interest have changed as well [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 593,000 tons, with no change from the previous day. The import and export profits and losses of electrolytic aluminum have different degrees of change [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,831 yuan, down 20 yuan. The prices of imported alumina from different sources have also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite Spot**: The prices of imported aluminum bauxite from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have different degrees of change [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 272 yuan, and the price of Baotai ADC12 is 21,100 yuan [1]. Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating different market outlooks [3].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 减产迟迟未能兑现 氧化铝空头氛围浓 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，近期国内外矿端保持平静，国内矿石维持偏 紧价格持稳。进口矿近期成交活跃度不高，主要以 几内亚、澳大利亚长单执行为主，氧化铝利润不断 压缩对铝土矿采购态度谨慎。供应端上周有山西 地区氧化铝企业减产，预计持续20天，日度影响产 量2000吨。进口窗口保持开启，进口氧化铝后续仍 有流入预期。消费端上周氧化铝价再度加速下跌， 电解铝企业采购意愿稍有抬升，但大多压价成交， 周末现货价格出现较大跌幅。仓单库存25.3万吨 周内减 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]

期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的 现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场还因反内卷政策预期一度 躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 2025年12月5日凌晨，氧化铝期货主力合约在夜盘交易中收于2590元/吨，跌破了2600元/吨整 数关口，刷新上市以来新低。 期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场 还因反内卷政策预期一度躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 在新疆交割库接近满额、后续大量仓单即将到期的压力下，氧化铝产能明显过剩，期货与跌破 2800元/吨的现货市场形成双杀。 所谓"双杀"，是指期货价格与现货价格同步大幅下跌，使得无论是持有期货头寸还是现货实物的 市场参与者普遍面临亏损的局面。 行业共识正在形成：除非出现"检修企业达到一定量级"的实质性减产，否则市场的跌势难以扭 转。 破位下行 2025年12月5日的夜盘，成了压垮氧化铝价格的最后一根稻草。氧化铝主力合约收于2590元/吨 的价位，创下新低。这一价格已跌出行业公认的现金生产成本区间。根据行业普遍的成本模型测 算，国内约90%至全部氧化铝产能的边际现金成本在28 ...