瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.18」 铝类市场周报 沪铝需求内增外降，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝主力震荡走势，周涨跌幅环比持平，报19695元/吨。氧化铝主力震荡走势，周涨跌幅+0.46%，报2818元/吨。 行情展望：国际方面，特朗普：有信心与欧盟达成贸易协议，但不急于达成协议；如果谈判破裂，据悉欧盟考虑对美国实施 出口限制。美联储威廉姆斯：货币政策处于良好位置，目前不认为需要很快调整利率。国内方面，国务院总理李强主持国务 院第十三次专题学习，他强调，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，把握政策力度必要时敢于打 破常规。基本面上，原料端部分海外发运铝土矿陆续到港令港口库存明显回升，国内铝土矿供应量级增长。氧化铝供给方面， 由于氧化铝现货价格持续低位运行，影响冶炼厂利润，部分冶炼厂减 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the final implementation mode of Trump's tariffs at the beginning of April and is also awaiting new domestic policy signals. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - The central bank will choose the right time to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond futures market will maintain a strong oscillation range in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [48]. Summary by Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 3.341 million barrels last week. The market trading focus may shift to the supply - demand side. There is still accumulation pressure after the first quarter. Pay attention to the resistance at Brent $74 - 75 per barrel and SC 550 yuan per barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, continue to hold the strategy of shorting at high levels as supply fluctuations ease and加注 demand weakens. Low - sulfur fuel oil lacks upward drive but also has limited downward pressure, and its cracking spread is expected to continue to oscillate [21]. - **Asphalt**: The production of asphalt using diluted asphalt as raw material is still restricted. The planned asphalt production in China in April is 228.9 million tons. With the temperature rising, demand is expected to improve, and the fundamentals are marginally better [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Crude oil strength supports international prices. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand may decline. The supply - side pressure is limited, but the market may turn weaker in the later stage [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Despite better - than - expected US economic data, precious metals rose overnight. The gold price is in an upward trend but needs to be wary of corrections. Focus on the US PCE data tonight [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell back. High copper prices affect the de - stocking speed. Short - term adjustments are expected, and the decline range is limited [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the decline of non - ferrous metals. The de - stocking speed is faster than in previous years. Short - term oscillation is expected, and attention should be paid to the support at 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices opened low and moved lower. Mine production is advancing as scheduled, and supply is not tight. Consumption shows resilience but limited growth. Zinc is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 24,250 yuan per ton [7]. - **Lead**: The market is worried about new tariffs, leading to a decline in lead prices. The raw material supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The fundamentals are mixed, and it is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 17,880 yuan per ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly. High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. Nickel is expected to have short - term support around 130,000 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose. Pay attention to the technical resistance at 285,000 - 287,000 yuan. Track LME inventory and demand - side changes [10]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high. Spot prices are under pressure, and the decline may slow down, with limited rebound space [6]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds close to 75,000 yuan. The market demand lacks expansion space, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is suitable to try short - selling [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the implementation of the joint production - cut plan of northwest silicon enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price shows limited upward and downward drive. Spot prices are stable, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected [13]. - **Plastics and Fibers** - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The short - term bearish factors are digested, but the demand follows up slowly. The inventory is transferred to the intermediate links [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC production remains high, and there is high - inventory and high - supply pressure. The caustic soda industry also faces similar pressure, and the prices are in a weak pattern [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX rebounds at night. PTA follows the raw material fluctuations. Mid - term trends depend on energy support and terminal demand [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply is still high. Pay attention to the positive supply - side drivers in April [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: The short - fiber industry's fundamentals improve, and pay attention to the opportunity of processing margin recovery. The bottle - chip price follows the raw material, and the processing margin may be under pressure [31]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass spot sales are good, and the industry continues to de - stock. Pay attention to the sales volume. If it falls below 100%, consider closing long positions [32]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash continues to de - stock. Supply rebounds this week. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [34]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The market awaits the US soybean planting intention report. Domestic bean meal basis is falling. After the arrival of a large number of soybeans, the basis may continue to decline. The mid - term trend is range - bound [35]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices are falling back. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. The price may test the bottom again [39]. - **Meat and Eggs** - **Pork**: The hog futures price oscillates slightly downwards. The long - term supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to move towards 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. The futures market maintains a bearish view [40]. - **Egg**: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The mid - term spot price may decline, and the futures market maintains a bearish view in the mid - term [41]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rise. The US cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The demand for cotton is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected. The domestic sugar supply and demand show some positive factors, but the upward space is limited [43]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price corrects. The cold - storage apple inventory is low, and the demand is entering the peak season. The price may rise [44]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The log inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price falls slightly. The inventory decreases, and there are supply - reduction expectations. The demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) lacks an upward drive and may continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the shipping companies' price - supporting actions during the May Day holiday [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market volume rebounds slightly. The stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff policy and domestic policies [47]. - **Bond**: The bond futures close stably. The central bank will cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The market maintains a strong oscillation range, and a steepening strategy is recommended for hedging [48].

重磅发布 利好突现，直线涨停！ 刚刚，工信部等十部门印发《铝产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027年）》。到2027年，产业链供应链韧性和安 全水平明显提升，产业链整体发展水平全球领先。铝资源保障能力大幅提高，力争国内铝土矿资源量增长3%— 5%，再生铝产量1500万吨以上。产业结构进一步优化，铝加工产业集聚区建设水平进一步提升。 方案还提到，加快推动国内铝土矿资源增储上产。受此刺激，闽发铝业直线封板，常铝股份直线拉升。分析人士认 为，上述方向无疑有利于铝行业的发展，且能给有色行业提供一定的示范效应。前一段时间，国内市场传出工业金 属战备收储的消息，虽未获权威证实，但亦激起了市场的做多情绪。 分发挥我国铝产业基础好、市场规模大等优势，引导产业加快转型升级，推动产业实现质的有效提升和量的合 理增长。 《实施方案》指出，一是明确发展定位。聚焦落实国家"十四五"规划和2035年远景目标纲要，以及原材料工业发展 规划、碳达峰实施方案、数字化转型实施指南等有关要求，提出促进铝产业高质量发展的三年目标任务。二是强化 系统谋划。立足全产业链，统筹国内国际两种资源、两个市场，系统谋划提升铝资源开发、冶炼加工、材料制备、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant inventory reduction, with a focus on the upcoming peak demand season. The report suggests that the combination of inventory depletion and rising prices may lead to a favorable investment environment [12]. Summary by Sections Inventory - As of March 13, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stood at 862,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 6,000 tons from the beginning of the week. The inventory reduction trend is becoming clearer, with the traditional peak demand season approaching [8][12]. Production - In February 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 357,000 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 222,000 tons. Conversely, alumina production was 6.935 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase of 215,000 tons [55][58]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 000933.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - China Hongqiao Group (Stock Code: 1378.HK) with a "Buy" rating - Tianshan Aluminum (Stock Code: 002532.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Aluminum Corporation of China (Stock Code: 601600.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Yunnan Aluminum (Stock Code: 000807.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 are as follows: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd.: 2.56 CNY - China Hongqiao Group: 2.26 CNY - Tianshan Aluminum: 0.97 CNY - Aluminum Corporation of China: 0.86 CNY - Yunnan Aluminum: 1.60 CNY [5]. Price Trends - As of March 14, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,688.5 per ton, a slight decrease from the previous week. The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,990 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 155 CNY week-on-week [23][24]. Demand - Demand is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the downstream processing industries. The opening rates for aluminum processing sectors are generally improving, with notable increases in demand from the new energy vehicle and battery sectors [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aluminum industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing material production in China is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating stable growth [1][2]. - Despite a 6% drag on aluminum demand from the real estate sector, the production of industrial aluminum profiles has historically surpassed that of construction aluminum profiles for the first time, compensating for the decline in construction aluminum [1][11]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests that while the growth rate of new energy vehicles may slow and the photovoltaic sector may not see additional aluminum demand, investment in the power sector is expected to maintain high growth, benefiting the home appliance sector [1][11]. - 2025 is projected to be the peak year for China's primary aluminum supply, with supply growth expected to be less than 2%, likely leading to a supply-demand gap in the aluminum industry, which may sustain or even create new highs in aluminum prices and smelting profits [1][11]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production Trends - In 2024, China's aluminum processing material production is projected to reach 49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with significant contributions from aluminum plates, foils, and wires [2]. - From 2020 to 2024, the total increase in aluminum production is expected to be 6.9 million tons, with aluminum plates contributing 42%, aluminum extrusions 28%, and aluminum foils 18% [2]. Industrial Aluminum Profiles - The production of industrial aluminum profiles is expected to reach 11.7 million tons in 2024, marking a 23% year-on-year increase, which compensates for the decline in construction aluminum profiles [6][11]. - The growth in industrial aluminum profiles is primarily driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors, with photovoltaic aluminum profiles contributing 40% to the increase [5][11]. Aluminum Plates and Foils - The production of aluminum plates is expected to increase by 2.9 million tons from 2020 to 2024, with the fastest growth seen in automotive body panels, which have a CAGR of 38% [7][11]. - The production of battery foils and air conditioning foils has shown significant growth, with battery aluminum foil production expected to have a CAGR of 59% from 2020 to 2024 [14].

观点聚焦 近期国内地产优化政策兑现[1]，大超市场预期，叠加海内外同步降息释放流动性，电解铝板块估值压 制逐步解除，迎来配置机遇。我们建议短期优先关注氧化铝自给率较高的标的。 理由 电解铝行业供需矛盾突出，美联储降息周期开启叠加国内地产政策超预期有望提振全球铝需求，电解铝 有望迎来配置机遇。 需求侧，宏观面， 海内外同步降息释放流动性，国内地产优化政策超预期兑现， 有利于刺激经济回暖。基本面，一是进入9月后国内秋季旺季特征明显，9月库存下降11万吨为历史同期 最大，下游龙头铝加工企业开工率底部回升1.8ppt。二是国内地产占铝需求约30%，地产政策优化有望 改善铝需求预期。三是以旧换新等政策有望持续带动传统需求复苏，我们预计国内合计占比27%的交运 和家电需求有望获得提振。四是碳中和背景下，新能源汽车及光伏领域的"新三样"铝需求增长方兴未 艾，我们测算2023-2028年全球新兴需求占比有望从10%提升至17%，其中新能源车需求未来5年仍是铝 板块增速最快的领域。五是我们预计海外欧美再工业化需求有望回升，南亚和东南亚新兴经济体的高速 发展，亦有望加快拉动国内铝材出口。 供给侧， 全球产能刚性和脆弱性凸显，国内 ...