据报道，APNI秘书长Meidy Katrin Lengkey 周二表示，该目标属于政府层面的规划，具体实施细节尚未 明确。 沪镍盘初快速上行，主力合约涨超2%。 印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）称，印尼政府在《2026年工作计划与预算》中提议将明年产量较今年总量削 减34%，降至2.5亿吨。 ...

摩根士丹利最新研报预计到2026年，镍价将回升至每吨15,500美元，届时供需将同步增长。据悉，力勤 资源印尼的湿法总产能12万湿法项目均实现达产，火法项目一期稳定生产，火法项目二期年设计产能 18.5万金属吨镍铁稳步推进，全部产线有望在2026年建成。 智通财经APP获悉，力勤资源(02245)早盘涨超7%，截至发稿，涨7.46%，报17.71港元，成交额1191.52 万港元。 消息面上，据印尼镍矿商协会(APNI)表示，印尼政府在2026年工作计划和预算(RKAB)中提出的镍矿石 产量目标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年RKAB设定的3.79亿吨大幅下降。APNI秘书长解释称，下调产量规划 的目的是为了防止镍价进一步下跌。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 市场悲观情绪更浓，镍不锈钢破位下行 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-16日沪镍主力合约2601开于114540元/吨，收于112290元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-2.36%，当日成交量 为157287（+27291）手，持仓量为105568（358）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开低走、单边下行态势，价格破位下跌，创近期新低。短期内，消费淡季背 景下，下游需求难有明显改善，供需失衡格局短期内难以改变，库存持续累积 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场较为平静，镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面北部矿山多履行前期订单出货 为主，矿山挺价为主。下游工厂生产计划未有变动，多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印尼方 面，12月(二期)内贸基准价预计走跌0.11-0.18美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在 +25-26。整体镍矿内贸价格预计仍将有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格118100元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌2100元/吨。现货交投一般，各品牌精炼 镍现货升贴水多有上调，低升水货源较为抢手。其中金川镍升水 ...

行业方面，华联期货指出，今年的RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，印尼MHP产能释放 压制价格，但印尼国内矿业政策改变扰动仍在；10月国内镍进口保持高位，10月印尼镍铁供应维持高 位；10月电解镍产量维持高位，11月份小幅回落。 需求方面，中财期货分析称，不锈钢疲软转为负反馈，三元材料12月排产小幅增加，四季度新能源汽车 补贴退坡冲量临近尾声，不锈钢维持刚需采购心态。 12月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，沪镍期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约震荡下 跌2.62%，报111990.00元/吨。 宏观面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，美联储理事米兰再次呼吁加快降息，断言"潜在"通胀接近目标， 称任期或延长。美联储"三把手"：上周降息后，货币政策已为明年做好准备。今年票委柯林斯：上周支 持降息是艰难决定。 对于后市走势，中辉期货表示，海外印尼减产影响逐步减弱，国内外镍库存仍处于偏高水平，下游不锈 钢消费转入淡季，终端需求支撑不足，镍价短期延续偏弱走势。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 过剩局面不改，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-15日沪镍主力合约2601开于115070元/吨，收于114690元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.88%，当日成交量 为129996（+29560）手，持仓量为105210（252）手。价格走势延续近期弱势，呈现 \"冲高回落、震荡下行\" 走势， 核心受供需过剩、高库存及技术破位三重压力。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场维持平静，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面矿山多履行前期订单出货为主， 矿山延续挺价心态。游工厂生产计划未有变动，多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印尼方面， 12月(二期)内贸基准价预计走跌0.11-0.18美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 整体镍矿内贸价格预计仍将有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120200元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌800元/吨。现货交投尚可，各品牌精炼 镍现货升贴水多持稳。其中金川镍升水变化100元/吨至5300元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至400元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元 ...

镍作为空配品种延续下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 期权：卖出阻力位虚值看涨期权。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美联储鹰派降息如期落地，中央经济工作会议也已结束，更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策等表述，并未给市场带来强刺激，市场反应平平。 产业方面：11月国内产量锐减1万吨，供需基本匹配，LME库存也因此未出现增长。12月产量略有回升， 需求端进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也环比走弱。库存预计小幅增长。供 需双弱格局缺乏向上驱动。商务部、海关总署公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，对不锈钢和镍利 空。 期货层面：沪镍11.8万附近阻力较强，资金减仓后上周四返回，价格再度下行，若市场整体风险偏好下降， 可能增仓下破前低。 不锈钢交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 单边：测试前低。 交易逻辑及策略 | 单边：低位震荡。 | | --- | 套利：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUT ...

2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][4] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,970 yuan/ton and closed at 115,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 106,815 (-13,204) lots, and the open interest was 106,302 (+3,719) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high, then moving low, and closing weakly, in an overall weakly oscillating pattern, affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - economics [1] Fundamental - The current pattern of nickel supply surplus remains unchanged. Although refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the production of primary nickel in December increased month - on - month, and the reduction in refined nickel production in November was lower than expected, having a limited marginal impact on the market supply - demand balance sheet [1] Macro - The Fed cut interest rates in December, but subsequent statements were hawkish, and the previous positive factors have basically been reflected in the market [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market was calm, with prices stable. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and their price - holding mentality recovered. As downstream ferronickel prices rebounded and domestic factories needed to stock up before the Spring Festival, the mentality of pressing down prices for nickel ore purchases may ease. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market showed no obvious improvement, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 5,100 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,939 (-296) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,852 (-240) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,550 yuan/ton and closed at 12,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,489 (+3,558) lots, and the open interest was 103,523 (-4,171) lots. After the contract changed to 2602, it continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a narrow - range weakly oscillating pattern and closing slightly lower. Technically, the price closed below the 5 - day moving average, remaining in a short - term weak pattern, but there was strong support around 12,400 yuan/ton [3] Spot - Downstream buyers remained cautious, and trading did not improve. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 195 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 888.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

2025年12月12日 商 品 研 究 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库持续叠加大厂复产未定，高位震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注新疆地区天气情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡格局 | 6 | 2025 年 12 月 12 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 期货研究 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 115,870 | -1,220 | -1,890 ...