Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tight supply of nickel ore supports the high - level volatility of nickel and stainless - steel prices. The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment, supply expectations, and technical factors, while the stainless - steel market is influenced by cost support and weak downstream demand [1][3] - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with the need to focus on Indonesian policy implementation, downstream demand recovery, and inventory changes [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 22, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 143,140 yuan/ton and closed at 142,500 yuan/ton, a 1.15% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 588,698 (- 156,970) lots, and the open interest was 69,610 (- 6,282) lots [1] - The price movement of the Shanghai nickel main contract was driven by three factors: macro - sentiment and external market linkages, the continuous fermentation of the expectation of reduced Indonesian nickel ore quotas, and technical support at the 140,000 yuan/ton mark [1] - The nickel ore market was stable, with prices in a high - level consolidation phase after consecutive increases. There was no new public tender or large - scale transaction information. In Indonesia, the market was waiting for the possible increase of the February domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) [2] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable [2] Strategy - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 22, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,650 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 389,457 (- 37,459) lots, and the open interest was 163,858 (- 4,171) lots [3] - The stainless - steel main contract showed a trend of rising and then falling, weakening after high - level volatility and slightly stabilizing at the end. The cost side had strong support, but downstream demand was weak, suppressing price increases [3] - The stainless - steel prices in the Wuxi and Foshan markets were 14,550 (+ 250) yuan/ton and 14,450 (+ 250) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 80 - 180 yuan/ton [4] Strategy - In the short term, high inventory, weak spot demand, rising costs, and macro - policies create long - short contradictions. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, the nickel price continued to fluctuate widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark. The main contract closed up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreased by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point again. The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to fall by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction. The nickel market has great upward elasticity, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Indonesian policy and the actual quota issuance rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel price trend: On the 22nd, the nickel price fluctuated widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark, with the main contract closing up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreasing by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day [7]. - Price changes of related products: The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate fell by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited [7]. - Market influencing factors: The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - PT Vale Indonesia's project progress: The HPAL Pomalaa project of PT Vale, Huayou, and Ford is accelerating. As of December 2025, the construction progress of the HPAL Pomalaa project has reached about 60%. Two autoclave equipment have arrived at the project site, and three other units are planned to be delivered later. The company aims to complete the mechanical completion of the HPAL Pomalaa factory by August 2026. PT Vale is the only nickel ore supplier for the HPAL Pomalaa factory [8]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd.'s production and cost situation: In 2025, the company's copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; the gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; the Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, mainly due to higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi. The nickel production guidance remained unchanged. The unit copper cash cost and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised because some investments originally planned for 2025 were postponed to 2026. The Panama government agreed to process the Cobre Panamá inventory ore, which is a positive signal for the project [10]. - Indonesia's nickel industry situation: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. In 2026, the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) is expected to be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply still depends on the later government assessment and quota addition [10].

来源：中国能源网 中邮证券近日发布有色金属深度报告：储量来看，印尼镍储量5500万吨，全球占比42%，是全球最重要 的镍储量国，巴西和澳大利亚储量分别为1600万吨和2400万吨，占比分别为12%和18%。年产量来看， 2024年全球镍产量为352万吨，YOY为4.7%，2025年，根据INSG预测，全球年产量为381万吨，YOY为 8.2%。印尼方面，2024年印尼镍产量220万吨，全球占比60%左右，且随着25年其产量的进一步释放， 占比为67%，对全球镍供应具有举足轻重的作用。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 镍供给：印尼戏份不断增强。 储量来看，印尼镍储量5500万吨，全球占比42%，是全球最重要的镍储量国，巴西和澳大利亚储量分别 为1600万吨和2400万吨，占比分别为12%和18%。年产量来看，2024年全球镍产量为352万吨，YOY为 4.7%，2025年，根据INSG预测，全球年产量为381万吨，YOY为8.2%。印尼方面，2024年印尼镍产量 220万吨，全球占比60%左右，且随着25年其产量的进一步释放，占比为67%，对全球镍供应具有举足 轻重的作用。 红土镍矿冶炼：MHP盈利良好，火法进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 21st, the nickel price fluctuated widely. Overnight, the sharp decline of European and American stock markets led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. The nickel price followed the non - ferrous sector and fell below 140,000. During the domestic daytime, it strengthened again, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The daily line showed a long lower shadow, with an amplitude of more than 6,000 between the high and low points. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,028.5 yuan per nickel point, and the bullish sentiment in the market drove up the bargaining range. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped 85 to 33,375 yuan per ton. The coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The nickel price continued to run strongly supported by Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and macro - sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor the policy statements of Indonesia and the final quota for the new year. It is expected to have a large upward elasticity before the final outcome is determined [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The nickel price on the 21st had a wide - range shock. Affected by the overnight decline of European and American stock markets, it first fell below 140,000 and then strengthened during the domestic daytime, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The price of high - nickel pig iron was flat, the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped, and the MHP coefficient remained high with limited short - term circulation. The nickel price is expected to be elastic before the Indonesian policy is finalized [7] 3.2行业要闻 - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated that the 2026 Annual Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) will be used as a strategic tool to synchronize mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. The government aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government is still integrating specific data [8] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 Annual Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business, but management expects the license to be approved soon. This temporary suspension only affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, and the existing main Sorowako mine and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10]

镍供给：印尼戏份不断增强 储量来看，印尼镍储量5500万吨，全球占比42%，是全球最重要的镍储量国，巴西和澳大利亚储量分别 为1600万吨和2400万吨，占比分别为12%和18%。年产量来看，2024年全球镍产量为352万吨，YOY为 4.7%，2025年，根据INSG预测，全球年产量为381万吨，YOY为8.2%。印尼方面，2024年印尼镍产量 220万吨，全球占比60%左右，且随着25年其产量的进一步释放，占比为67%，对全球镍供应具有举足 轻重的作用。 红土镍矿冶炼：MHP盈利良好，火法进退维谷 智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，镍是有色金属中少有的缺席2024年至今有色牛市的品种。截 至2026年1月5日，2024年开始，镍涨幅仅有3%，相较于贵金属、铜铝锌等工业金属、以及钴和碳酸锂 等能源金属的涨幅都相差较大，一旦印尼政策使得品种出现供需缺口，或存在一定的高弹性补涨的可能 性。若镍价成功反转，建议关注力勤资源(02245)、华友钴业(603799.SH)等湿法冶金成熟，盈利可充分 释放的公司。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 根据供需平衡表推演，需求端不锈钢和三元电池保持一定的增量，总体需求增速在20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of refined nickel and stainless steel is oscillating at a high level. The core contradiction of nickel lies in the continuous tug - of - war between "strong expectations" and "high inventory + weak reality", while that of stainless steel is the game between raw material cost support and weak downstream demand [1][3][4]. - The short - term nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton, and stainless steel will maintain a high - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 142,500 yuan/ton and closed at 141,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.36% compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 695,146 (-254,226) lots, and the open interest was 79,005 (-4,205) lots. It showed a trend of wide - range oscillation after a high opening and a decline in the late session, affected by macro - sentiment, supply - demand expectations, and external market linkage. In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85% and a year - on - year increase of 24%. Other unwrought non - alloy nickel imports were 16,177 tons, accounting for 69% of refined nickel imports [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The sentiment in the nickel ore market heated up. The tender price of Philippine mines jumped significantly, and the domestic mainstream grade quotation quickly followed. The CIF quotation of 1.4% grade nickel ore has risen to about 53 US dollars. The Indonesian market is temporarily stable after the previous benchmark price adjustment, and the official benchmark price in February is expected to increase by about 3 US dollars [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 150,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand of refined nickel was slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 400 yuan/ton to 8,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,478 (-320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,736 (-972) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to the possible recurrence of Indonesia's nickel ore policy and the rainy season in Indonesia in the first quarter, the nickel cost is supported to run at a high level. It is expected that the short - term nickel price will oscillate in the range of 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premium, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand [3]. - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,300 yuan/ton and closed at 14,345 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 296,762 (+9,074) lots, and the open interest was 145,198 (-4,171) lots. It followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a trend of rising first and then falling and closing up. The core contradiction lies in the game between raw material cost support and weak downstream demand, and it is also affected by macro - sentiment and inventory pattern [3][4]. - **Spot**: Downstream demand is weak as it is the pre - Spring Festival ending stage. High prices suppress procurement, and the inventory digestion rhythm slows down. The quotations of traders are slightly adjusted after rising with the futures market. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 14,350 (+50) yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 14,250 (+100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 85 to 285 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,028.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - In the short term, the high inventory and weak spot demand form a long - short contradiction with the rising cost and macro - policies. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's mining policy, the recovery rhythm of downstream demand, and inventory changes [4]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's nickel supply is increasingly significant, with its reserves accounting for 42% of the global total, and its production expected to dominate global output in the coming years [3][15] - The demand for nickel is primarily driven by stainless steel, which is projected to maintain a stable growth rate, while the growth of demand from ternary batteries is slowing down due to competition from lithium iron phosphate batteries [5][31] - Recent regulatory changes in Indonesia are expected to tighten the management of nickel resources, potentially leading to a supply shortage in the market [6][40] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing price for nickel is reported at 9453.04, with a 52-week high of 9504.06 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Nickel Supply - Indonesia's nickel reserves are 55 million tons, representing 42% of global reserves, with Brazil and Australia holding 12% and 18% respectively [15] - Global nickel production is forecasted to reach 3.52 million tons in 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, and 3.81 million tons in 2025, reflecting an 8.2% increase [15] Nickel Smelting - The report discusses the profitability of the MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) process, which is currently favorable due to high cobalt prices, while the RKEF (Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace) process faces challenges due to high nickel ore prices and poor downstream nickel-iron prices [4][21] Demand Analysis - Stainless steel remains the dominant demand driver for nickel, with an expected demand of around 2.3 million tons in 2025, accounting for 65% of total demand [5][31] - The growth rate for ternary battery demand is projected at 7%, with total demand around 480,000 tons, representing 14% of the market [5][35] Regulatory Impact - Indonesia's recent mining policies are tightening regulations on nickel development, which could significantly impact the supply-demand balance [6][40] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel ore production targets to 250 million tons in 2026, down from 364 million tons in 2025, which may alleviate oversupply concerns [43] Market Dynamics - Nickel has been notably absent from the recent metal bull market, with a price increase of only 3% since 2024, suggesting potential for a rebound if supply constraints materialize [7][47] - Companies such as Liqin Resources and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of a price rebound due to their established wet metallurgy processes [7][50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after a significant decline in nickel prices, the market is currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with the main contract down over 2% [1] - Short-term supply constraints from Indonesia are unable to be disproven, providing some support for prices, but there are expectations for potential quota replenishment in the long term [1] - The current fundamental changes are limited, maintaining an oversupply situation in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing structural differentiation, with high-purity battery-grade nickel performing strongly due to increasing demand and tightening supply expectations, while traditional nickel usage is constrained by weak demand and high inventory levels [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel futures saw a rise of 1.8%, with LME nickel closing at $18,145 per ton, up $320 from the previous trading day, and SHFE nickel closing at 143,640 yuan per ton, up 2,790 yuan [1] - The global liquidity environment and market sentiment are providing foundational support, as the US dollar index's decline reduces pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [1] - Supply concerns are heightened due to recent policy adjustments in the Democratic Republic of Congo and ongoing geopolitical dynamics, which inject uncertainty into the global nickel market [1] Group 2: Supply Side - Indonesia's significant reduction in nickel ore quotas (RKAB) for 2026 is impacting market sentiment, with expectations of tighter supply throughout the year [2] - The rigid increase in Indonesia's domestic trade benchmark mineral price (HPM) is raising smelting costs, forcing companies to pass on these costs through price increases [2] - Nickel ore inventories at major global ports are beginning to decline, reinforcing signals of tightening supply [2] Group 3: Demand Side - The demand landscape is polarized, with the electric vehicle sector driving strong growth and optimistic global sales forecasts boosting demand for high-nickel ternary battery materials [2] - European market policies and domestic companies' export strategies are supporting short-term consumption of battery-grade nickel products, while traditional sectors like stainless steel are facing weaker demand due to macroeconomic factors [2] Group 4: Industry Chain Status - The upward price movement and demand differentiation are leading to varied experiences across the industry chain [3] - Companies controlling mining resources, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines, are the biggest beneficiaries due to resource scarcity premiums [3] - Midstream smelting companies with advanced processes and overseas projects are enjoying substantial profit margins from rising product prices [3] - Downstream processing sectors are experiencing significant internal differentiation, with high-nickel material companies benefiting from favorable conditions, while traditional sectors face cost pressures [3] Group 5: Leading Companies - Major listed companies like Huayou Cobalt are expected to see significant profit growth driven by their Indonesian projects, while companies like Greeenme have doubled their nickel resource product shipments [3] - These leading firms share characteristics such as deep ties to upstream resources, advanced smelting technologies, and continuous capacity expansion, allowing them to benefit from the current structural market conditions [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].