中航证券指出，在稳增长政策持续加码、服务消费与文旅免税政策密集落地、入境游强势复苏的背景 下，消费链条已呈现多个结构性机会。一方面，服务消费与线上消费延续强韧增长，政策驱动下文旅、 教育等领域具备更高景气弹性；另一方面，免税渠道改革叠加入境便利化，有望成为下阶段消费复苏的 核心引擎。 提振内需+低估赛道：食品饮料ETF(515170)； 相关热门ETF： 电商龙头+新消费：港股消费ETF(513230)。 11月17日，港股三大指数集体下跌。截至午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.80%，恒生科技指数跌1.19%，国企 指数跌0.79%。盘面上，科网股普跌，军工股涨幅居前，半导体板块逆势上涨，黄金股普跌，港股消费 板块午后持续震荡，港股消费ETF(513230)现跌近0.5%，打开低位布局通道。 假期催化+冰雪经济：旅游ETF(562510)； 11月14日晚，2025年天猫双11以实现四年来最好增长收官。天猫双11全周期，近600个品牌成交破亿， 34091个品牌同比去年增长翻倍，18048个同比增长超3倍，13081个同比增长超5倍，均超去年同期。其 中，苹果、海尔、美的、源氏木语、小米、斐乐、老铺黄金、骆驼、华为、 ...

宏观信息 行业信息 综合点评及操作建议 五、宏观信息 应新西兰议会议长布朗利、澳大利亚联邦议会参议长莱恩斯和众议长迪克邀请，全国人大常委会委员长赵乐际将于11月19日至25日对新西兰、澳大利亚进行正 式友好访问。 中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀在2025年第22期《求是》杂志中发表署名文章《深刻领会因地制宜发展新质生产力的重要论述和决策部 署》。其中提到，要培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能 和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。 香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波表示，香港经济将连续第三年取得正增长，且明年经济可望继续增长。 金融监管总局发布的2025年三季度保险公司资金运用情况表显示，三季度末，保险资金运用余额达到37.46万亿元，其中股票的账面余额为3.62万亿元。这一 数字较去年末增加了1.19万亿元，增幅近五成；其中第三季度增加5524亿元。银行股依然是险资的"心头好"，不仅三季度末持仓市值占比超一半，且第三季 度险资增持股数也在所有重仓股中排名首位。在银行股外，钢铁、通信 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the phenomenon of "Haqimi" and its impact on stock prices, particularly focusing on the product launch by Jiuyang Douye and the subsequent stock surge of Jiuyang Co., which is unrelated to the product [3][6][7] - Jiuyang Douye's new product "Haqimi North-South Mung Bean Milk" sold out quickly, leading to a backlog of orders and a significant increase in demand [6][8] - Jiuyang Co. experienced a stock price surge after the product launch, despite clarifying that it had no operational ties to Jiuyang Douye, which had sold its stake in the bean milk business [7][8] Group 2 - The article highlights the emergence of "Haqimi" as a meme culture, with various companies and stocks being associated with it, leading to a speculative investment environment [8][9][28] - The phenomenon has sparked a broader internet culture war, with opposing views on animal rights and meme usage, resulting in increased engagement and controversy [28][40][61] - The article suggests that the "Haqimi" trend represents a shift in how companies engage with controversial topics, potentially leading to more businesses taking sides in cultural debates [61][63]

Group 1: Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index opened with a rapid decline, touching a low of 49,846 points, falling over 1% before slightly narrowing the loss [1] - Several consumer stocks in Japan experienced significant drops, with FOOD&LIFE COMPANIES down over 14%, Japanese electronics down over 11%, and Shiseido down over 9% [1] - Other notable declines included Mitsukoshi Isetan down over 8%, Japan Eyewear down over 6%, and Nissan down over 4% [1] Group 2: Travel Warnings - The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a warning for Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan due to rising safety concerns [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Education also released a study abroad warning, highlighting the deteriorating security situation for Chinese citizens in Japan [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's GDP reported a year-on-year decline of 1.8% for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3] - The actual GDP, adjusted for price changes, decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [4] Group 4: Diplomatic Engagement - A senior official from Japan's Foreign Ministry is visiting China to discuss recent comments made by Japan's Prime Minister regarding Taiwan and to emphasize the importance of maintaining personnel exchanges despite differences [5]

基金投顾观点 本周A股市场震荡，上证创新高后回落，债市窄幅波动，美股下跌。具体来看，市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 本周A股市场整体震荡态势，上证指数本周虽两次创年内新高，最终下跌0.18%，而创业板指数 和科创50指数本周跌幅3%以上。申万一级行业继续分化，呈现结构高低切换局面，前期涨幅较 大的通信、电子和计算机本周跌幅居前，而年内涨幅较小的纺织服饰、美容护理、食品饮料和 房地产等行业本周涨幅居前，其中房地产行业本周创年内新高。香港恒生指数本周上涨1.26%， 但恒生科技指数小幅下跌。 02 债市方面，本周资金面整体均衡偏紧，债市震荡，利率债表现好于信用债，国债期货走弱，预 计纯债基金小幅收正。基本面上，从本周披露的经济数据和金融数据来看，面临去年高基数的 影响，基本面修复动能有所减弱，为债市提供基本面支撑。资金面上，本周资金面整体偏紧， 央行净投放后有所缓解。政策面，本周央行发布三季度货币政策报告，指出实施好适度宽松的 货币政策，明年货币政策基调等待重要会议部署。 03 商品方面，黄金经过前期调整震荡后，于本周再次上行，COMEX黄金周度涨幅超4%，下半周 波动加大，周四亚盘时间拉升明显，后有所下跌。 0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the accelerated rotation in the A-share market, with funds shifting from the previously leading technology sector to the defensive consumer sector, particularly the food and beverage industry, which is showing sustained investment value due to supply-demand improvements and favorable policies [1] Group 2 - Since November, the food processing and beverage manufacturing sectors have seen significant gains, with sub-sectors like prepared dishes and functional beverages performing actively [1] - The supporting logic includes October's financial data confirming signals of deposit migration, maintaining ample market liquidity, which attracts funds to the undervalued consumer sector [1] - Various regions have introduced consumption vouchers and dining subsidies, directly boosting terminal demand for food and beverages [1] - The trend of consumption upgrading is evident, with significant growth in health-oriented and premium products, driving structural optimization within the industry [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the year-end consumption peak effect is expected to continue, further amplifying the performance certainty advantage of the food and beverage sector [1] - Institutions generally believe the sector is currently in a "valuation + performance" recovery phase, with industry prosperity expected to steadily improve as prices rise and policies are implemented, making it a core focus for year-end market positioning [1] Group 4 - Relevant ETFs include the Food and Beverage ETF (515170) and the Consumer 30 ETF (510630) [1]

中银证券认为，食品饮料相关子行业有望回暖。从已公布的三季报业绩来看，白酒板块加速出清，大众 品细分领域龙头业绩表现彰显韧性，经营修复明显。建议关注受益餐饮消费场景修复的大众品相关子行 业。 东兴证券表示，我们通过对宏观及政策、利率水平和成长动能三个方面分析，认为板块正在从"低胜 率"向"高胜率"转变的过程中，明年胜率反弹的高度取决于宏观总量变化的高度。加之当前板块处于高 赔率阶段，我们认为2026年食品饮料板块有望实现基本面和估值的双成长。 消息面上，据中国网，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在国新办发布会上表示，从服务消费看，我国居民 消费正在加快转型，服务消费增长日益成为居民消费的重要增长点。 此外，据智通财经，多家基金公司表示，消费股的投资逻辑正在快速迭代，机构布局不仅看重估值和业 绩，也看重消费体验和服务，投资逻辑正在从"适配需求"转为"创造需求"，看好锐意创新的公司。 食品饮料ETF天弘（159736，场外C类001632）跟踪中证食品饮料指数，仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙 头股，兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利、海天等。 11月14日，市场全天震荡调整，中证食品饮 ...

【相关ETF】 食品饮料ETF（515170）； 消费30ETF（510630）。 11月10日至14日，A股市场整体呈现调整态势，三大指数均下跌，创业板指领跌，大消费板块走强，科 技成长板块调整。此番消费行情的启动，主要得益于两大核心驱动力：一是10月CPI同比转正，内需动 能修复；二是年末消费旺季的到来，为零售、食品饮料等行业带来了实实在在的业绩增长预期。 面对海外市场的波动与内部科技板块的高位分化，市场资金开始关注更具性价比和确定性的方向。大消 费板块经过长时间调整，估值已处于历史相对低位，吸引了机构资金的回流。临近年末，机构配置更趋 均衡，正在为明年布局做准备，食品饮料等业绩稳定、与宏观经济复苏紧密相关的板块，自然成为重点 关注的领域。 展望年末，作为内需的核心代表，食品饮料等大消费行业直接受益于经济基本面的好转和消费者信心的 恢复。中长期看，随着政策效果的逐步显现和居民消费潜力的持续释放，大消费板块的配置价值日益凸 显，当前时点或是中长期布局的窗口期。 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 11 月 17 日 | 11 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 600115.SH | 中国东航 | | 600428.SH | 中远海特 | | 600426.SH | 华鲁恒升 | | 002409.SZ | 雅克科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 688198.SH | 佰仁医疗 | | 603345.SH | 安井食品 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 601138.SH | 工业富联 | | 002230.SZ | 科大讯飞 | 中银晨会聚焦-20251117 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】宏观点评*陈琦 朱启兵。10 月实体经济融资需求仍然不振。 "双节"假期带动 10 月消费数据表现，后续"惠民生"政策值得期待。固 投整体维持韧性，但地产投资下行压力加大。 【宏观经济】10 月金融数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。10 月新增社融、新增信 贷、M1 同比增速和社融同比增速均低于万得一致预期，仅 M2 同比增速高 于万得一致预期，一方面表明适度宽 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is experiencing narrow fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with a breakthrough on October 28 followed by a retreat below 4000, indicating a warning signal of crowding [1][24] - The October CPI has rebounded year-on-year, while PPI's decline continues to narrow, leading to a widening PPI-CPI scissors difference [1][25] - The initial phase of the bull market sees funds favoring a few high-growth sectors, while later stages may see a focus on mainline stocks, making it harder for new funds to profit [1][26] Group 2: Social Financing and Economic Indicators - In October, the social financing scale increased by 815 billion yuan, which is 597 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a notable decrease in new government bonds and RMB loans [3][31] - The PPI's decline continues to narrow, while the CPI has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a mixed economic recovery [3][31] - The economic data for October shows a weakening trend in industrial output, retail sales, and investment, with industrial value-added growth at 4.9%, below expectations [1][25] Group 3: Medical Device Industry Insights - The medical device sector's revenue decreased by 1.65% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in net profit by 21.13% [8] - The bidding activities for medical devices have shown signs of recovery, with a 42% year-on-year increase in the total amount of successful bids in the first nine months of 2025 [8] - Companies like United Imaging and Mindray are accelerating their global expansion, with overseas revenue growth of 41.97% and 11.93% respectively in Q3 2025 [8] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Trends - The 3-5 year government bonds have shown better performance with a decline in interest rates, primarily driven by institutional buying behavior [7] - The market is currently in a phase of uncertainty, awaiting key factors that could break the current deadlock, such as the resolution of the US-China tariff dispute and central bank bond purchases [7][30] - The overall liquidity in the bond market is tightening, with a decrease in the net buying activity of various institutions [32][33] Group 5: Paper Industry Developments - Nine Dragons Paper achieved a revenue of 63.24 billion yuan in FY2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a significant net profit growth of 135% [18] - The supply-demand pressure in the boxboard and corrugated paper market is easing, with expectations of price support due to seasonal demand and rising costs [18] - The company's integrated pulp and paper development strategy is yielding results, with a projected net profit of 3.12 billion yuan for FY2026 [18]