Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable nickel profits in Q2, with cobalt performance showing elasticity. The forecast for H1 2025 indicates a net profit of 2.6-2.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%-68% [7] - Nickel wet-process projects are expected to continue overproducing, with a projected shipment of over 70,000 tons in Q2, maintaining stable profits. The company anticipates nickel intermediate shipments of over 280,000 tons for the year, a 25% increase year-on-year [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise, potentially leading to a second wave of price increases in the second half of the year, with the company’s cobalt projects contributing significantly to profits [7] - Copper is expected to contribute stable profits, while lithium is projected to break even. The company aims for a total copper shipment of 90,000 tons for the year, contributing 700-800 million in profits [7] - The sales of positive materials are expected to recover significantly, with a target of 130,000 tons for the year, a 30% increase year-on-year [7] - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6 billion, 6.75 billion, and 8.24 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 44%, 12%, and 22% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 66.304 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.351 billion, down 14.25% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.58 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 138.963 billion by 2025, with total liabilities of 84.779 billion [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased policy uncertainty and market volatility [14][15] - Various commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, such as the impact of tariff threats on palm oil exports, the production pressure on Ferrexpo's iron ore, and the adjustment of the expected price of polysilicon [2][30][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.02%, lower than the expected 3.13% and the previous value of 3.20%. Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper, and the equal - tariff is postponed to August 1. Gold lacks the impetus to break through and rise, and there is a risk of decline in the short term [9][10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper, threatens to impose sanctions on Russia, and the tariff deadline on August 1 will not be postponed. Market risk appetite is affected, and the dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term [12][13][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - National leaders inspected Shanxi, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. The A - share market sentiment is high, and it is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US June one - year inflation expectation dropped to a five - month low. Trump threatens to impose a 50% copper tariff, and tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are expected. The industry tariff pressure increases, and there is a risk of US stock market correction [20][21][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise marginally from July to August, and long positions can be held and bought on dips [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 7.3%, and the US cotton growth progress was slightly slow but the excellent rate was higher. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [26][27][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Due to US tariff threats, Indonesia's palm oil exports to the US are expected to decline. Palm oil prices rose significantly yesterday, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a callback [30][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises in production areas are in a loss state, and the starch inventory cycle changes rapidly with high uncertainty [32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction on July 8 cooled down, and it is recommended to enter short positions on new crops lightly in advance [33][34] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic steam coal exists. The daily consumption of steam coal is high in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable in July [35] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of excavators in June increased year - on - year, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [36][38][39] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Ferrexpo's iron ore production in the second quarter was under pressure. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair of coking coal [40] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount. The lead price center may gradually rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the external reverse arbitrage opportunity [41] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expected price of polysilicon was significantly increased, but there are still problems in reality. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount, and the zinc market is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. It is recommended to short on rallies, arrange medium - term positive arbitrage, and maintain the medium - term positive arbitrage idea externally [44] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The output of organic silicon increased. The industrial silicon price may face a downward risk, and it is recommended to short on rallies [45][46][47] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel raw materials began to weaken, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [48][49] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium carbonate project's environmental impact assessment was accepted. It is recommended to buy on dips and arrange positive arbitrage [50][51] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - EIA lowered the forecast of US crude oil production growth this year, and API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [52][53][54] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rose slightly, and it is expected to adjust in the short term and the supply gap will widen in the medium term [54][55] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices fluctuated, and the basis declined. It is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of PX maintenance on the supply - demand gap in the medium term [56][57] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices were lowered, and it is recommended to increase the processing fee of bottle chips on dips [58][59][60] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [60][61][62] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp fluctuated, and it is expected to fluctuate in the market [62] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device is expected to be put into production. The pure benzene futures were listed, and the styrene - pure benzene spread narrowed. There may be a long - term allocation opportunity for pure benzene [63][64][66] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices fluctuated slightly, and the market is expected to have limited upside [67] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The construction of national zero - carbon parks was launched, and CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [68][69] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices were weak and fluctuating, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [70] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market were stable. It is recommended to use the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [71][73]

Group 1 - Glencore has sold its copper smelting plant to the Villar family, a prominent business group in the Philippines [1] - This transaction indicates a strategic shift for Glencore, focusing on divesting non-core assets [1] - The sale reflects the growing interest in copper production and processing in the Philippines, aligning with the country's economic growth [1]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing the financial and commodity markets. - In the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices. - In the bond market, it is advisable to enter the market at low prices as interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. - In the precious metals market, a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained due to the expected easing of the Fed's policy. - In the metal market, different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are in a state of complex supply - demand and price fluctuations, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: Trump threatens to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries; Changxin Storage starts the listing guidance; Guojin Securities' Hong Kong subsidiary prepares to apply for virtual asset trading licenses; the eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index reaches a new high [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH futures contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East decline, and the market risk appetite recovers. Domestically, economic data in May is stable, and policies are introduced to support the market. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures long at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined to varying degrees [5]. - **News**: China's foreign exchange reserves increased in June; Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries supporting BRICS' anti - US policies [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the economic data and policy support, it is expected that interest rates will decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.36%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.19%. COMEX gold rose 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US fiscal and monetary policies are the core drivers of precious metal prices. It is expected that the Fed will ease its policy in the second half of the year, and a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.69%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79390 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose. In China, social inventory increased, and the spot premium changed. The copper price is under pressure of phased shock adjustment [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum fell 1.31%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20490 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index fell 1.41%, and LME zinc fell 50 to 2695.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore supply is high, and the zinc price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and the decline of the long - short structure [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.48%, and LME lead fell 19 to 2043.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The lead price is relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai nickel fell 1.41%, and LME nickel fell 0.85%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. The price difference between refined nickel and nickel iron is high, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai tin fell 1.40%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, and the terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the LC2509 contract rose 0.60%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The lithium price has limited upward space, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand expectations and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose 0.15%. - **Industry Situation**: The alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to short at high prices, and pay attention to policy and production reduction risks [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.71%. - **Industry Situation**: It is in the consumption off - season, and the supply - demand excess pattern is difficult to reverse. The spot market is expected to be weak [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.78%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are weak, and the price is affected by the aluminum price. The upper resistance is large [20][21]. Black Construction Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - **Industry Situation**: The export is under pressure due to the anti - dumping policy. The supply - demand situation of rebar and hot - rolled coil is different, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies, demand, and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron ore main contract fell 0.20%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply and demand of iron ore are affected by multiple factors. The price is in a wide - range shock, and it is necessary to control risks [25][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The glass price rebounded, and the soda ash price was stable. - **Industry Situation**: Glass is affected by policies, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling. Soda ash has large inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon fell 0.04%, and ferrosilicon was flat. - **Industry Situation**: The industry is over - supplied, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and short at high prices for hedging positions [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial silicon main contract rose 0.81%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is over - supplied, and demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU adjusted downward. - **Industry Situation**: The tire industry has a neutral start - up rate, and the inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to be long - term bullish in the second half of the year and neutral in the short - term [39][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all declined. - **Industry Situation**: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities at low prices [45]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, and the futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The cost is sufficient, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [46]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 14 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [48][49]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both expected to decline, and it is recommended to short at high prices [50]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was flat. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is slightly under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [51]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 12 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: The overhaul season is over, and it is expected to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The price is expected to fluctuate due to inventory and demand factors [53]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The pig price may stop falling and rise slightly. The short - term long - position has space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [56]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price mostly declined. - **Industry Situation**: The egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in others. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term [57][58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans fell 2.75%, and domestic soybean meal spot fell. - **Industry Situation**: The soybean import cost is stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to trade policies [59][60]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Domestic oils and fats fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a shock [62][63]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated, and the spot price declined. - **Industry Situation**: Brazilian sugar exports increased, and the domestic sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased risk aversion, a rebound in the US dollar index, and a decline in the three major US stock indexes [1][2][16]. - The capital - market equilibrium supports the strength of the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties [3][21]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and the agricultural product market is also affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [5][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump has issued tariff letters to 14 countries, with tariffs on some countries ranging from 25% to 40% and set to take effect on August 1st. Gold prices fluctuated slightly higher, and the market's panic was limited due to the possibility of negotiations before the implementation [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices remain in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Former Fed official Kevin Warsh suggested a rate cut, stating that tariffs would not cause inflation. The EU is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the US to lock in a 10% tariff rate after August 1st. Trump's tariff pressure has led to a decline in global risk appetite, a rebound in the US dollar index, and an increase in safe - haven assets [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Wash suggested a rate cut, believing that Trump's tariffs would not cause inflation. Trump postponed the tariff deadline to August 1st, but the announced tariff rates for some countries are higher than the 10% benchmark. The market maintains a risk - averse sentiment, and the impact of tariffs on corporate earnings should be noted during the earnings reporting season [18][19]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the risk of a correction in US stocks [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves increased. The central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The capital - market equilibrium supports the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties. The impact of trade conflicts on the bond market needs further observation [20][21]. - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 1.92 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July. The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained at 66%, and the weekly export inspection report met market expectations. Domestic soybean meal inventory increased rapidly due to sufficient imports and high - capacity operation of oil mills [24][25][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The EU set a new import quota of 100,000 tons for Ukrainian sugar. Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June, a 4.91% increase year - on - year. Pakistan's sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, and the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures is limited [28][29][31]. - Investment advice: Although the production and sales data in domestic main producing areas in June were positive as expected, the market focus has shifted to processed sugar. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions increased, while that of palm oil decreased slightly. The palm oil market is relatively strong, and the soybean oil market is weak due to high - capacity operation. The strength - weakness pattern may change under certain conditions [33][34]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding the YP spread, but wait for a clear driving force and observe in the short term [34]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year this year. Steel prices fluctuated slightly lower. The short - term fundamentals are relatively strong, but some spot demand comes from the covering of previous short positions. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][35][36]. - Investment advice: Spot steel should be hedged on rallies [37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on July 7 were - 111 yuan/ton, - 49 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and - 97 yuan/ton respectively. Starch is expected to gradually reduce its operating rate to reduce inventory, and attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect [38]. - Investment advice: The inventory cycle of starch changes rapidly, and there are many uncertainties in the future [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Due to the import corn auction, the market sentiment was affected, corn futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. The market expects that the import auction will suppress spot prices [39]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the results of future import auctions. If the transaction rate drops significantly and the premium disappears, short positions on new crops can be lightly entered in advance [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 7, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The port has a structural shortage, but downstream demand is not strong. The price is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to changes in power plant loads and port inventories [40][41]. - Investment advice: The price of steam coal is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Shanxi [41]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01% - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils. Iron ore prices fluctuated, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of the anti - dumping ruling is limited [42]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term, as the upside of iron ore prices is limited [42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable. The supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price increase momentum is not strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [43][44]. - Investment advice: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. If demand weakens, the upside of coking coal prices is limited [44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - AIXU Co., Ltd.'s 3.5 billion yuan private placement was approved. The price of polysilicon has increased, but the actual problem of over - supply has not been solved. The future price increase depends on production cuts and price increases in the downstream market [45]. - Investment advice: The futures market has factored in the impact of price - limit policies. It is recommended to observe due to high policy - related risks [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The electrode market demand is weak, and cost transfer is blocked. The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan is expected to increase. The upside of industrial silicon prices is limited, and there may be opportunities for short - selling on rallies [47][48][49]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies of industrial silicon, and manage positions carefully when building positions on the left side [50]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Political conflicts in Bolivia have affected lithium - mining cooperation. Downstream demand for lithium carbonate has gradually recovered, and the supply pressure is limited. The market focus is on demand [51]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Avoid short positions for now, and wait for a better opportunity to build mid - term short positions [52]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of July 7, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends. The demand from battery factories has increased, but the terminal consumption is weak. Lead prices are expected to gradually rise, and attention can be paid to buying on dips [53][54][55]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and selling put options. Observe in terms of spreads and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [55]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. The domestic zinc inventory increased. Zinc prices declined due to macro - and fundamental factors. The market is expected to be in a surplus in July - August, and attention should be paid to the return of zinc trading to fundamentals [56][57][58]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term for single - side trading. Protect previous short positions. For spreads, observe in advance for positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Maintain the idea of internal - external positive spread arbitrage in the mid - term [59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory remained unchanged on July 7. The supply of nickel ore is slightly tight, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is in surplus, and prices are expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term [60][61]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is difficult for nickel prices to fall further deeply, but there is no upward momentum. In the mid - term, pure nickel prices are expected to follow the cost of pyrometallurgy, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has strengthened the crackdown on illegal mining, which has led to protests. LME copper inventory has increased. Copper prices are under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and inventory increases [63][65][66]. - Investment advice: Observe in both single - side and spread trading, as copper prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Three PDH plants are planned to restart in early July. The domestic and international spot prices of liquefied petroleum gas have declined, and the market is in a weak state. The short - term outlook is affected by tariff policies [67][68]. - Investment advice: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. There is a small upside potential for international prices if buying returns after the tariff uncertainty is resolved [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day in September. Oil prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the impact of the production increase on prices was limited due to market expectations and the inability of some countries to reach the production target [69]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of July 7, the inventory of asphalt increased slightly. Asphalt futures prices fluctuated between 3,500 - 3,600 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the downside of asphalt futures prices is limited, with an expected upward trend [70]. - Investment advice: Asphalt futures prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [71]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of July 7, urea enterprise inventory decreased. The futures market showed different trends in different contracts. The market focus is on export quotas and supply - side changes [72]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the realization of the new export quota expectation. The 09 contract has some support before the expectation is falsified [73]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - Bottle chip factory export quotes were slightly lowered, and the market trading was light. Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if the cuts are implemented, inventory pressure is expected to be relieved [74][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee of bottle chips by buying on dips, as the supply pressure will be relieved in the short term [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of July 7, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased significantly. The market outlook for pure benzene is still weak in the second half of the year, but there may be opportunities for long - term light - position exploration [77][78]. - Investment advice: The listing price of the 2603 pure benzene contract is considered neutral. In the mid - term, the overall view is bearish, but light - position long - entry opportunities can be considered when the spread is compressed [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On July 7, the soda ash market in the Shahe area was in a volatile adjustment. The supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak [79]. - Investment advice: In the mid - term, maintain the view of short - selling soda ash on rallies due to high inventory and cost reduction [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On July 7, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly. The factory shipment is okay, but the downstream purchasing rhythm has slowed down. The fundamentals are still weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is uncertainty in real - estate policies [80]. - Investment advice: From a single - side perspective, the risk - reward ratio of short - selling may not be high. It is recommended to consider the cross - commodity arbitrage strategy of buying glass and short - selling soda ash [81].

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日度报告——综合晨报 中国住建部称将更大力度推动房地产市场止 跌回稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-07 宏观策略（黄金） 美国财长贝森特：贸易谈判的最后阶段出现僵局 周五金价震荡微跌，美国独立日休市海外市场交易较为清淡， 市场聚焦关税暂缓期到期后美国对等关税落地情况，9 日前仍有 谈判在推进，主要是欧盟和日本还未与美国达成协议。 宏观策略（股指期货） 住建部：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 综 合 近期股市情绪持续升温，新题材涌现，使得市场顶住高估压力 持续上涨。这种单边堰塞湖的状态，后续需要基本面回升来夯 实行情。此外海外关税扰动仍不可忽视 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 展望下周，预计资金面仍然偏松，债市做多动能继续积累，但 长端品种突破尚需等待。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） Mysteel 数据：全国主要油厂大豆压榨预估调查统计 45Z 税收抵免通过，关注 7 月 8 日听证会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 6 月下旬重点钢企钢材库存量 1545 万吨 反内卷政策预期带动钢价偏强，基本面仍有支撑，五大品种库 存并未进一步累积。但随着 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daoshi Technology is making a significant overseas investment of approximately 1.183 billion yuan to establish a copper wet smelting plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, aimed at expanding production capacity and securing resource supply [1][2][3]. Investment and Expansion - The company plans to invest in a project that will produce 30,000 tons of cathode copper and 2,710 tons of cobalt intermediates, with a project cycle of 18 months [2][3]. - This investment is part of Daoshi Technology's long-term strategic layout in the Congo, a region rich in copper and cobalt resources, which will enhance the stability and security of raw material supply [2][3]. Production Capacity and Growth - Daoshi Technology's cathode copper production is projected to reach 40,900 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 32%, marking a historical high [1][3]. - The company is also expected to produce 1,743 tons of cobalt intermediates in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 227% [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Daoshi Technology reported a revenue of 7.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%, and a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 662.33%, ending two consecutive years of profit decline [5]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas market revenue, which grew 3.82 times over the past three years, with the revenue share rising from 16.13% to 65.8% [6]. Research and Development - Daoshi Technology has invested over 1.228 billion yuan in R&D from 2020 to 2024, resulting in accelerated technology transformation [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 64 patents in carbon materials, 222 in lithium battery materials, and 104 in ceramic materials [6].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：微观基本面转弱 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：265000-270000元/吨 本周冶炼厂开工率继续走低 本周社会库存基本持平 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-03 01-13 01-26 02-10 02-23 03-04 03-15 03-25 04-07 04-18 04-28 05-10 05-20 05-31 06-13 06-24 07-05 07-19 08-02 08-16 08-30 09-13 09-27 10-14 10-28 11-11 11-24 12-03 12-15 12-24 % 精炼锡_两省合计开工率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 0 ...