Group 1 - Glass futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.84% to 1102 yuan/ton, fully reversing the gains from the previous week, primarily due to the end of the macro "anti-involution" trading phase and a decline in market sentiment [1] - The overall glass spot market is under pressure, with the price of 5.00mm large glass sheets in North China falling by 10 yuan to 1240 yuan/ton, indicating weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [1][2] - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises nationwide was 59.49 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy boxes or 3.87% from the previous period, marking a six-week consecutive decline, although the rate of decline has narrowed [2] Group 2 - The glass production and sales showed a high-to-low trend this week, with a decrease in procurement enthusiasm among industry players, despite the overall improvement in production line profitability for seven consecutive weeks [2] - The operating rate of the float glass industry reached 75%, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 79.78%, the highest level this year [2] - The recent important meetings did not signal additional fiscal policy support, emphasizing the need to utilize existing policy packages, which may impact market sentiment and price movements [2] Group 3 - Institutions have differing views on the future price trends of glass, with some suggesting a trading range of 1080-1200 yuan for the FG2509 contract, while others maintain a cautious outlook due to the weak balance between supply and demand [4] - The overall market is at a critical juncture of policy expectation adjustment and fundamental dynamics, with short-term market sentiment cooling significantly [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Mid - to long - term: After continuous increases due to policy speculation, black - series commodities mainly showed a volatile correction this week. Market sentiment cooled, and the market logic gradually returned to fundamentals. For steel mills, the profitability rate continued to increase, daily hot metal output continued to decline, and overseas ore shipments rebounded. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, and in - plant inventory continued to decline, but the fundamental changes were limited. For soda ash, production decreased month - on - month, but the oversupply situation continued, and the supply - demand fundamentals were poor, with recent fluctuations mainly following the chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the release and implementation of relevant policies [51][55]. - Short - term: The main contracts of black - series commodities had sharp price fluctuations recently, and it was recommended to operate with caution and light positions. The main contracts of glass and soda ash closed significantly lower this week, and short - term cautious observation was recommended [52][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2510) | - 89 (from 3294 to 3205) | - 2.70% | 3370 | 165 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510) | - 66 (from 3456 to 3390) | - 1.91% | 3410 | 20 | | Iron Ore (I2509) | - 32 (from 811 to 779) | - 3.95% | 779 | 0 | | Coke (J2509) | - 134 (from 1735 to 1601) | - 7.72% | 1520 | - 81 | | Coking Coal (JM2509) | - 153 (from 1199 to 1046) | - 12.77% | 1250 | 205 | | Glass (FG509) | - 190 (from 1307 to 1117) | - 14.54% | 1320 | 203 | | Soda Ash (SA509) | - 161 (from 1408 to 1247) | - 11.43% | 1359 | 112 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - Profit: On July 31, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to July 24 [7]. - Supply: As of August 1, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.82% (+0.64), daily hot metal output was 240.71 tons (- 1.52), and rebar production was 2.1106 million tons (- 0.9) [12]. - Demand: In the week of August 1, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.0341 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 131,700 tons; the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 78,119 tons [16]. - Inventory: In the week of August 1, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8414 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.6215 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,200 tons [20]. 3.3 Float Glass - Supply: As of August 1, the number of float - glass production lines in operation was 222 (unchanged from last week), weekly output was 1,115,225 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7050 tons). As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points), and the start - up rate was 75% (unchanged from last week) [25]. - Inventory: On August 1, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes compared to July 25; the available days of in - plant inventory were 25.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days [30]. - Demand: As of July 31, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [34]. 3.4 Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to last week; production was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons compared to last week [39]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared to July 25 [44]. - Production and Sales Rate: As of August 1, the production - sales rate of soda ash was 109.83%, an increase of 4.17 percentage points compared to July 25 [48].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the prices of cyclical products continue to rise, while the domestic production of air conditioners has turned negative [7][8]. - Real estate sales remain sluggish, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% in the transaction area of 30 major cities, and the air conditioner production for August is expected to decline significantly due to high base effects from the previous year [8][11]. - The service consumption sector shows seasonal improvement, but long-distance passenger transport demand has decreased, indicating that the summer service consumption outlook remains uncertain [7][8]. Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, the expectation of anti-involution policies has increased, leading to a rise in steel and float glass prices, while cement prices remain under pressure due to weak demand affected by rainy weather [9][26]. - The operating rates in the manufacturing sector show mixed trends, with a notable decline in petroleum asphalt production, while recruitment intentions among companies have slightly improved [37][9]. - The prices of upstream resources, including thermal coal and industrial metals, have continued to rise, driven by increased demand and tightening supply expectations [46][48]. Group 3 - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, while domestic freight and express logistics have shown a decline in activity, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 0.6% and 2.1% respectively [55][57]. - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, attributed to increased market supply due to rising temperatures [13][19]. - The report notes that the average price of floating glass has increased by 2.2% week-on-week, reflecting improved market demand despite general market conditions [30][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the construction materials sector is expected to continue its recovery due to increased infrastructure investment and consumption stimulation, supported by government policies [3][4] - The real estate sector has seen a weakening in sales momentum over the past two months, with the market remaining in a low-level fluctuation, influenced by policy developments [3][28] - The report suggests focusing on stable and leading companies in the real estate sector, particularly those operating in first and second-tier cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others [3][28] - In the building materials sector, the report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in cement companies, recommending firms with solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [4][50] Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The report notes that the recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of urban renewal and fiscal measures to support the real estate sector [3][28] - It anticipates ongoing issuance of special bonds to support urban renewal and old community renovations, which will provide some demand support for real estate [3][28] - The report indicates that the real estate sector's sales have weakened, and the market is currently in a policy negotiation phase, with potential short-term rebounds driven by policy announcements [3][28] - It highlights the need to monitor the recovery of sales and improvements in the fundamentals of real estate companies for medium-term outlooks [3][28] Building Materials Sector - The report discusses recent environmental regulations aimed at improving standards in the glass and cement industries, which are expected to positively impact company operations and profit recovery [4][50] - It mentions that the cement market is currently facing weak demand and excess capacity, but infrastructure investment is expected to support cement demand in the second half of the year [4][50] - The report provides data indicating that retail sales of building and decoration materials reached 15.8 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [5][53] - It suggests that the building materials sector will see improvements in sales and profit margins due to market recovery and internal optimization efforts by companies [7][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the construction materials sector is expected to continue its recovery due to increased infrastructure investment and consumption stimulation, supported by government policies [3][4]. - The real estate sector has shown weakened sales momentum in recent months, with a focus on policy impacts for short-term rebounds and a need for improved sales recovery and company fundamentals for medium-term outlook [3][28]. - The building materials sector is facing challenges such as weak demand, excess capacity, and inventory pressure, but upcoming policies are expected to enhance environmental standards and control capacity, positively impacting profitability [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The central government is emphasizing urban renewal and fiscal measures to support the real estate market, including the issuance of special bonds [3][28]. - The real estate sector has seen a slight increase of 0.66% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points [15][20]. - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Vanke, focusing on stable operations and strong positions in first and second-tier cities [3][28]. Building Materials Sector - The building materials sector has experienced a 6.23% increase over the past two weeks, ranking second among 31 sectors [29][31]. - Cement prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with the national average price at 320 RMB per ton, down 4 RMB from the previous week [36][50]. - Companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are recommended for their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [4][50]. Consumer Building Materials - Retail sales of building and decoration materials reached 15.8 billion RMB in June, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [5][53]. - The report anticipates a recovery in sales and profit margins for consumer building materials companies due to market improvements and cost optimization strategies [7][53]. - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials, Rabbit Baby, and Three Trees for their competitive advantages and solid fundamentals [7][53].

金鹰基金权益研究部策略研究员金达莱 首席经济学家、基金经理杨刚 7月A股大幅放量冲关9.24以来高点，多行业轮动扩大赚钱效应。月内国防军工受益于9.3阅兵预期，行 业表现活跃，而市场风偏提振下，AI驱动的产业链展现出更大弹性。与此同时，创新药再迎政策利好 和恒瑞医药海外BD大单，也点燃了市场投资热情。此外，超预期一面在于，中央财经委推动供给侧反 内卷带动周期行业大幅反弹，以及"雅下水电站"开工进一步推动市场短期风偏。 展望8月市场，关税对全球经济实际影响将显现，等待国内外局势更趋明朗。海外方面，中美新一轮谈 判目前并未有明确进一步进展，此前市场偏乐观的预期或有一定修正。此外，232调查等针对个别行业 的超高关税有待落地。美联储在通胀抬升和就业不差的美国经济背景下，难以引导宽松预期。国内方 面，进入8月，PMI转弱已显示此前"抢出口"效应对经济抬升的支撑正在减弱，我国关税落地后对基本 面的实际影响将进入真实考察期，短期政治局会议基调延续稳中求进，增量政策或难以期待。总体而 言，海内外均有不同层面的不确定性因素有待资本市场消化，市场高位下后续需检验基本面韧性。 后续，还需重点关注以下海内外因素，预计这些方面都可能 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 8 月 1 日 油） 021-60635738 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-606355 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the glass futures market dropped significantly, with the main 2509 contract of glass futures falling 8.22%. The operating rate of float glass enterprises this week was 75%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy boxes from the previous week. Currently, glass supply shows no sign of contraction, and the real - estate sector drags down the rigid demand, while speculative demand has increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing but remains at a high level. In the long run, the glass supply - demand situation remains relatively loose [1]. - The soda ash futures market also dropped significantly yesterday, with the main 2509 contract of soda ash futures falling 6.45%. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from the previous week, the output was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week. Currently, soda ash production remains at a high level and is in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, as projects are gradually implemented, the soda ash capacity may be further released. Meanwhile, due to the "anti - involution" impact in the photovoltaic industry, there is an expectation of production cuts, and soda ash consumption may further weaken, increasing the inventory pressure later [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the collective sharp decline of black commodities drove the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures to hit the daily limit. The main contract of silicomanganese futures dropped 170 yuan/ton from the previous day, closing at 5946 yuan/ton. In the spot market, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese production increased month - on - month, hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The shipping from Australia in the manganese ore segment has basically recovered. After the silicomanganese price was boosted by macro - sentiment, the hedging willingness of enterprises increased, but with the decline of coking coal and coke futures, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent [3]. - Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5696 yuan/ton, a drop of 312 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the price remained stable, and the cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The demand for ferrosilicon remained resilient, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, but with the sharp decline of coking coal, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent. In the long run, the ferrosilicon capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 2: Strategy Glass and Soda Ash - The strategy for glass is to be weakly volatile [2]. - The strategy for soda ash is to be weakly volatile [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The strategy for silicomanganese is to be weakly volatile [4]. - The strategy for ferrosilicon is to be weakly volatile [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [7]. - The outlook for specific varieties is also mostly "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [9][10][13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the important meeting, although the tone is positive, it fails to meet the market's overly enthusiastic expectations, leading to a decline in black prices. However, as the previous bubble is squeezed out, there may be subsequent positive policies. The terminal demand has not shown an obvious turnaround, and the focus currently lies in the intermediate links. The market is volatile, and deep declines are not expected in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Steel mills' profitability has increased again, but iron water production has decreased in some areas due to rainfall, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in berthing ships, and at mills have all decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction in the iron ore market, there is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the price has slightly declined, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Some coal mines have resumed production, but production disturbances still exist, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders are more cautious. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be highly volatile [3] Alloys - The continuous increase in coke prices has strengthened the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The manganese ore market is more cautious, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The demand for ferromanganese - silicon from steel mills is still resilient, but as manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Glass - In the off - season, glass demand has declined, deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased. After the futures market decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled down. The supply is expected to remain stable. The "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, and the short - term futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [6] Soda Ash - In the long term, the over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market, but the delivery pressure is large. It is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the long - term price center will decline [6] Steel - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - trading has temporarily ended. There is a possibility of policy adjustment on the supply side and an increase in infrastructure steel demand. The export is expected to remain resilient. The actual implementation effect of steel mill production restrictions needs to be tracked. The steel market fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, and there is short - term downward pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions have decreased significantly. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume at ports has decreased. Steel mills' iron water production has decreased, and inventories have decreased. The fundamentals have limited negative driving force, and the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [10] Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel have increased significantly. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [11] Coke - The futures market is oscillating weakly, and the spot price has decreased. Coke production is temporarily stable, and demand is still strong. The supply - demand structure is tight, and price increases are accelerating. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [13][14] Coking Coal - After the macro - meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market has declined significantly. The supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be volatile [13][14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has declined weakly. The supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [18] Ferrosilicon - The futures price has declined significantly due to the weakening of market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]