Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Outlook [1] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The real - world demand for iron ore still provides support, and ore prices are expected to oscillate at relatively high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - Seaborne shipments remain at a relatively high year - on - year level, and the freight rate from Brazil to China has increased on a month - on - month basis [5]. - The recent shipments of mainstream mines have recovered to a year - on - year high, and freight rates have risen. Brazilian freight rates may be driven by Vale. Shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa have increased on a month - on - month basis. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region is relatively low [17][19][21][30]. - Global weekly shipments were 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 0.509 million tons. YTD cumulative global shipments were 1.167207 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8832 billion tons or 8%. Brazilian shipments were 8.363 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million tons or 7.7%. Australian shipments were 18.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.246 million tons or 8.49% [4]. 3.2 Demand - Considering the pre - holiday production demand for intermediate products, blast furnace operations have been increasing, and the immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong. Iron and steel production and the output of five major steel products have both increased on a month - on - month basis. The price of scrap steel has continued to rise on a month - on - month basis, helping to widen the scrap - iron price difference as iron ore prices have fallen from their highs [5][33][36]. - The iron - making output of 247 enterprises was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons [4]. 3.3 Macro - level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the market had already priced this in, so the impact was limited after the announcement. The domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5]. 3.4 Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract oscillated strongly, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 509,000 lots, a decrease of 65,600 lots. The average daily trading volume was 28,400 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 55,800 lots [7]. 3.5 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have fallen from their recent highs. For example, the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased from 799 yuan/ton last week to 785 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [12]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at 45 ports has once again exceeded 140 million tons [40][42]. 3.7 Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, leading to a downward revision of the paper profit [44]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Differences - The price of PB powder has fallen more than other varieties this week [46]. 3.9 Futures Spread - The 1 - 5 futures spread has stabilized [50]. 3.10 Basis Performance - As the futures price has fallen from its high, the basis for the 01 and 05 contracts has widened on a month - on - month basis [54].

Report Title - Black Series Weekly Report - Iron Ore, dated September 26, 2025 [2] Report Author - Researcher: Li Haixiao, Trading Consultation: Z0019568; Reviewer: Tang Yun, Z0002422 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Iron ore fundamentals are still supported as hot metal production increased month - on - month, and both port and steel mill inventories increased month - on - month. The Iron Ore 2601 contract will fluctuate [5] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread Price - Multiple price charts are presented for different iron ore products and related indexes from 2016 - 2025, including iron ore index, lowest delivery product discounted to the futures price, various Platts indexes, and prices of different grades of iron ore in Qingdao Port, Hebei, and other regions [11][15][17] Spread - Multiple spread charts are presented, including spreads between different iron ore futures contracts (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), high - medium - low grade price spreads, pellet and lump ore premiums, and basis rates and bases of different futures contracts. Also included are the profit margins of hot - rolled coil index, various steel products in different regions, and the price difference between scrap steel and hot metal in North and East China [29][39][40] 2. Supply - From January to August, the cumulative production of domestic raw ore was 67,810.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In August, China imported 10,522 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; from January to August, the cumulative import was 80,162 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.64%. From September 15th to 21st, 2025, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 27.728 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05 billion tons [7] - Various supply - related charts are presented, including monthly and cumulative imports of iron ore, weekly shipments from Australia and Brazil and their respective ports to China, weekly arrivals at domestic ports, shipping indexes (BDI, BCI), freight rates, and the capacity utilization rate and daily output of domestic mines [63][70][77] 3. Demand - Hot metal production increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 175,000 tons. Mysteel's statistics showed that the average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 3.364 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,700 tons [7] - Multiple demand - related charts are presented, including the monthly cumulative and monthly production of pig iron, average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports, average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills, replenishment intensity, blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 247 steel mills, daily consumption of domestic and imported powder ore of 64 steel mills, and various ore blending ratios [86][91][95] 4. Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports was 140.0028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5264 million tons. The steel mill inventory was 97.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2696 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2687 million tons, and the inventory days were 32.53 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.24 days [7] - Multiple inventory - related charts are presented, including the total inventory of 45 ports, trade ore inventory, non - Australia and Brazil ore inventory, inventory of different types of ore (Australian, Brazilian, coarse powder, lump ore, iron concentrate, pellet ore), inventory of imported ore of 247 steel mills, inventory days, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio and inventory of imported and domestic powder ore of 64 steel mills, as well as the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines [108][116][123]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price is under pressure and has pulled back due to increased arrivals and port inventories. The I2601 contract is recommended for short - term trading in the range of 810 - 770 yuan/ton, considering the tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment, high hot metal production, and weakening upward momentum of iron ore as the holiday approaches [2][9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Price - As of September 26, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 790 (-17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 851 (+1) yuan/dry ton [7]. Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 248.3 tons week - on - week. From September 15 to 21, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 3324.8 tons, and the total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2772.8 tons, a decrease of 205.0 tons [7]. Arrival - From September 15 to 21, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports increased by 358.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports increased by 312.7 tons, and the arrival volume at six northern ports increased by 45.0 tons [7]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons week - on - week and 17.50 tons year - on - year [7]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14550.68 tons, an increase of 169 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1242.24 tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 9736.39 tons, an increase of 426.96 tons [7]. Profit Margin - The profit margin of steel mills was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [7]. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. Industrially, hot metal production remains high, but the upward momentum of iron ore weakens as the holiday approaches. Technically, the I2601 contract is under pressure and may test the support near MA60 (775). It is recommended to trade the I2601 contract in the 810 - 770 yuan/ton range [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract was under pressure and pulled back, and its performance was weaker than that of the I2605 contract. On the 26th, the price difference was 20.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 26, the number of Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore warehouse receipts was 2000, an increase of 300 week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of ore futures contracts was 22924, a decrease of 10873 from the previous week [21]. Spot Price - On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and on the 26th, the basis was 61 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton week - on - week [27]. 3. Industry Situation Arrival Volume - From September 15 to 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [30]. Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 169.00 tons, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 0.38 tons. The inventory of steel mills increased by 426.96 tons, the daily consumption increased by 1.83 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 1.23 days [33]. Inventory Availability - As of September 25, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 24 days, an increase of 2 days. On September 25, the BDI was 2266, an increase of 63 week - on - week [38]. Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - In August 2025, China's iron ore imports increased by 0.6% month - on - month. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 64.03%, an increase of 0.2% [41]. Iron Ore Production - In August 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the iron concentrate production increased by 0.4% month - on - month [45]. 4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Production - In August 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. Steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.6% month - on - month [48]. Blast Furnace Operation - On September 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average hot metal production was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons week - on - week [51]. 5. Options Market - With high hot metal production and rigid demand for iron ore spot, but weakening upward momentum after the National Day holiday replenishment, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [54].

黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石 10 月月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 终端需求走弱，矿价高位承压 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 1 页 共 17 页 黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石 10 月月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 第二部分 铁矿石市场数据回顾 图 1：62%普氏铁矿价格 图 2：PB 粉价格 50 80 110 140 170 200 230 260 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400 500 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 3：卡粉-PB 粉价差 图 4：PB 粉-超特粉价差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. Steel prices may face pressure before the holiday and could decline after the holiday, but there is a possibility of an increase if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and other factors will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [8][10]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and market expectations are fluctuating [11][13]. - The ferroalloy market is driven by overall commodity sentiment and cost in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Related Information**: The US will impose new high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, and Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners. Shanghai's rebar price is 3290 yuan (+10), and Beijing's is 3190 yuan; Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price is 3400 yuan, and Tianjin's is 3330 yuan [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend at night. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 10820 tons. Five major steel products increased in production overall, with a decrease in hot - rolled coils. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils weakened, while that for rebar continued to recover. Steel inventories have reached an inflection point and are starting to decline. However, there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday, and there may be a risk of decline after the holiday, but there is also a chance of price increase if demand recovers beyond expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; for the arbitrage strategy, continue to hold the long 1 - 5 spread and the short hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, a 1.8% increase. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased, and the inventory decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased. The prices of coke and coking coal warehouse receipts are provided [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has digested the pre - holiday raw material replenishment logic. The spot market for coking coal is rising, and coke enterprises are proposing a price increase. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can provide some supply. The demand for steel restricts the upside of raw material prices [8][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is a wide - range volatile market in the short term, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, try to enter the long coking coal 1 - 5 spread at low prices; for the options and spot - futures strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US Q2 GDP final value increased by 3.8% annually, and the US will impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1. The real - estate bond financing in August decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. The prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port are provided [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price dropped slightly at night. The mainstream mines improved in the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas demand remained high. The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels [11][13]. - **Trading Strategies**: No specific trading strategies are clearly provided in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: The November 2025 quotes of overseas manganese mines to China increased. On the 25th, the silicon - iron spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon and manganese - ore spot prices were slightly weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is high, and the short - term negative feedback risk has eased. For manganese - silicon, the supply is high, and the demand is stable. The cost of manganese - ore is rising, but the upside is limited by high supply [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is strong in the short term but limited by high supply; for the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see; for the options strategy, sell the straddle option combination [15][18].

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 14000.28 336.4 9736.39 299.28 2675 40.05 242.36 84.45 90.86 58.01 -10.50 上期 13801.08 339.17 9309.43 297.45 2362.3 40.4 241.02 83.98 90.35 58.87 -8.00 周变动 199.20 -2.77 426.96 1.83 312.70 -0.35 1.34 0.47 0.51 -0.86 -2.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10916.44 1722.13 278.65 1083.06 本期 9061.84 5354.52 5916.19 上期 10811.42 1671.76 291.24 1026.66 上期 8980.59 5266.52 5775.57 周变动 105.02 50.37 -12.59 56.4 周变动 81.25 88 140.62 免责声明： 铁矿石库存周度数据 研究咨询部 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides an assessment of the Chinese iron ore industry from 2025 to 2031, focusing on market evaluation and development strategies [1] Import Data Summary - In July 2025, China imported 105 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] - The import value for the same period was $9.564 billion, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 8.8% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industrial consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The company has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, providing comprehensive industrial solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, container shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals). It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with a view to guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: TMT led the market, with most stock index futures rising. The basis of the four major stock index futures contracts was deeply discounted. The market was affected by domestic and overseas news, and the trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 when the index pulls back [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: MLF was incrementally renewed, and treasury bond futures generally showed an oscillating trend. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, but the improvement of inter - bank market liquidity was limited. It is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to fast - in and fast - out, and also participate in the basis narrowing strategy of the TL contract [5][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US government faced a shutdown risk, and the economy and inflation were relatively resilient. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes. Gold maintained a high - level oscillation. In the future, the Fed's policy path will suppress the US dollar index, and the political situation in Europe and the United States will increase the demand for precious metals as a hedge. It is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and maintain a bullish view on silver [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot freight rates of shipping companies were provided, and the SCFIS European line index declined. The futures price rose, and CMA raised its November price. It is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Grasberg mine disturbances increased supply concerns, and copper prices remained high. The macro - market was affected by the Fed's interest rate cut, and the supply side was affected by the mine accident. Although the short - term demand was suppressed, the long - term supply - demand contradiction supported the price. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The market was in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The price was under pressure, but the cost support limited the downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost - profit change and Guinea's policy [20][21][23]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory showed a turning point, and the fundamentals improved marginally under the support of the peak season effect and stocking demand. The aluminum price was expected to oscillate at a high level after a pullback [24][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The disk oscillated, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supported the spot price. The supply was tight, the cost was high, and the demand recovered moderately. It is recommended to consider arbitrage operations [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory decreased during the peak season, and the price was expected to oscillate. The supply was loose, and the demand showed differentiation at home and abroad [29][30][32]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore remained low in August, and the supply supported the price. The demand was weak, and the market was in a tight - balance situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [32][33][35]. - **Nickel**: The non - ferrous metal sector boosted the intraday market, and the fundamentals changed little. The supply was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The price was expected to oscillate within a range [36][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The disk oscillated and rose slightly. The raw material prices were firm, and the cost provided support. The supply increased, and the demand improvement was not obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel mill's dynamics and inventory digestion [39][40][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The sector sentiment drove the disk to strengthen slightly, and the fundamentals were in a tight - balance during the peak season. The supply increased marginally, the demand was optimistic, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to expect the price to oscillate within a range [42][43][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel exports supported the black metal valuation, and the steel price continued to oscillate. The cost had support, the supply was at a high level, and the demand showed seasonal fluctuations. It is recommended to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand [46][47]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand of iron ore showed a slight improvement, but it was still insufficient in the peak season. The supply was affected by shipping and arrival, and the demand was supported by high - level hot metal production. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and conduct arbitrage operations [48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand supported the price. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the demand recovered with the increase in hot metal production. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct arbitrage operations [51][53][54]. - **Coke**: The main coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the price increase space might be limited. The supply decreased due to cost pressure, and the demand was supported by the increase in hot metal production. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct arbitrage operations [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina restarted the export tax, but China had purchased many ships of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the near - month price was under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread might continue to weaken [57][58][60].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the molten iron output is expected to remain strong, and the ore price is supported until steel mills reduce production. The market sentiment is relatively positive after the China-US presidential call, and the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to stabilize the supply and prices of raw materials and reduce speculative sentiment [4]. - The black sector may face a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the downstream demand provides some support, the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price needs fundamental improvement for a strong rebound [13]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [15]. - The glass price may experience short - term surges due to policy and price - increase factors, but the terminal demand is weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, the demand is flat, and the market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 271,422 tons, a net increase of 7,616 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.870449 million lots, a net decrease of 11,775 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.029%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 29,204 tons, a net decrease of 5,355 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.369716 million lots, a net increase of 1,955 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 805.50 yuan/ton, up 0.25% (+2.00), with a position change of - 9,319 lots to 529,700 lots. The weighted position was 848,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.05 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.74% [3]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments from three major mines decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also decreased month - on - month. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability further declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The destocking of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On September 25, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) opened nearly 1% lower in the morning and then closed higher, with a daily increase of 0.37% to close at 5,938 yuan/ton. The manganese silicon price generally remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore port inventory has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [9]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened nearly 1.5% lower in the morning and then rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.77% to close at 5,786 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price also remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 5,800 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,400 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend, with a relatively low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+35). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,270 lots to 500,028 lots. In the现货 market, the market price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 155 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. The production growth has slowed down, but the weekly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream demand provides some support, but the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvement and policy changes [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03% (-15). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,430 lots to 241,935 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 1,185 yuan/ton [14]. - The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policy narratives. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract and the authenticity of sudden news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,270 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+33). The large - plate price in North China was 1,210 yuan, up 50 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,200 yuan, up 50 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a net decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 55,809 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 13,867 lots [17]. - Six departments have issued a document to ban the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. Some enterprises have announced price increases, which have pushed up the market in the short term. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply adjustment is limited, and the market supply is abundant. The inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. Soda Ash - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,315 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+8). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1,225 yuan, up 8 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a net decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including 922,400 tons of heavy - soda inventory, a net decrease of 83,700 tons, and 729,100 tons of light - soda inventory, a net decrease of 20,400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 8,864 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1,705 lots [19]. - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, and the demand is flat. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 to 206.5, a 2.6% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.4 to 326.5, a 0.4% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.6 to 650.3, a 0.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.7 to 378.0, a 1.3% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0, a 6.0% increase, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.3 to 321.8, a 1.3% decrease [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different types of iron ore decreased, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6 to 37.9, a 54.0% decrease. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase, while the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease. The monthly national import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 7.9 to 339.2, a 2.4% increase. The monthly national pig - iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decrease, and the monthly national crude - steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase. The available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 22.0, a 10.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts and spot in different regions increased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased by 13 to 1730, a 0.7% increase. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coking - plant inventory decreased, while the steel - mill and port inventories increased [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking - coal contracts and spot in different regions changed. The 01 contract of coking coal increased by 7 to 1225, a 0.6% increase. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 17 to 421, a 4.2% increase [6]. - **Supply**: The main - producing - area coal mines continued to resume production, and the logistics improved. The coal - mine sales and prices increased. The imported Mongolian coal price increased, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output continued to rise, the coking - plant operation was stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coal - mine, port, and steel - mill inventories decreased, while the coal - washing plant, coking - plant, and port inventories increased [6].