Report Information - Report Date: July 08, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The price of the main contract of polysilicon continued to rise sharply. The closing price of PS2508 was 36,515 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.86%. The trading volume was 440,264 lots, and the open interest was 105,230 lots, with a net increase of 27,896 lots. The spot price increased over the weekend, with the transaction price range of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material being 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton and the average transaction price being 34,700 yuan/ton. Policy-driven anti-involution competition benefits are being transmitted to the spot market. The increasing position operation continues to highlight the strong expectation guiding the upward movement of the futures price. In the short term, the weak reality of the fundamentals has not yet restricted the price, and the price is expected to be mainly strong, but beware of a sharp pullback [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of polysilicon continued to rise sharply. The closing price of PS2508 was 36,515 yuan/ton, with a 2.86% increase. The trading volume was 440,264 lots, and the open interest was 105,230 lots, with a net increase of 27,896 lots [4]. - Future Outlook: Over the weekend, the spot price increased. The transaction price range of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material was 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 34,700 yuan/ton. Policy-driven anti-involution competition benefits are being transmitted to the spot market. The increasing position operation continues to highlight the strong expectation guiding the upward movement of the futures price. In the short term, the weak reality of the fundamentals has not yet restricted the price, and the price is expected to be mainly strong, but beware of a sharp pullback [4]. 2. Market News - As of July 07, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, with no increase from the previous trading day [5]. - A high-level meeting pointed out that it is necessary to regulate the disorderly low-price competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity [5]. - On June 23, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January - May. As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%. From January to May, the country's power generation equipment had an average utilization of 1,249 hours, a decrease of 132 hours compared to the same period last year. The country's major power generation enterprises completed a power source project investment of 257.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and the grid project investment was 204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Group 1 - The report from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics predicts stable growth for China's economy in 2025 despite external uncertainties and internal transformation challenges [1] - On the supply side, industrial transformation continues, with new industries like new energy and new materials becoming new growth drivers, while traditional industries face overcapacity and profit shrinkage [1] - The demand side is slowly recovering but remains fragile, with households preferring to save more and reduce debt, which could have long-term implications for macroeconomic demand [1] Group 2 - The report suggests balancing short-term demand stabilization with long-term reforms, including targeted easing to alleviate debt pressure and support high-end manufacturing [2] - There is a need to break market segmentation and accelerate the construction of a unified national market to enhance market confidence and stimulate consumption and investment [2] - The current macroeconomic concern is persistently low price levels, with industries experiencing faster profit declines than cost reductions, necessitating a shift to a new governance model led by the government [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Core Insights - The price of N-type polysilicon recycled material is 36 yuan per kilogram, while the N-type polysilicon price index stands at 35.6 yuan per kilogram, and granular silicon is priced at 34 yuan per kilogram, indicating a stable market with slight fluctuations over the weekend [1] - Recently, leading polysilicon manufacturers have raised the prices of certain orders for dense/recycled materials to 37 yuan per kilogram, attributed to recent anti-involution policy guidance and industry self-discipline [1] Price Trends - The overall polysilicon prices have remained stable, with companies adjusting their cost quotes upwards last week [1] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a wait-and-see approach as it is not yet the period for signing contracts [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **coal industry** in China, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, and the impact of government policies on coal and energy production [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coal Consumption and Demand Forecast**: - Daily coal consumption is expected to exceed **2.3 million tons** this year, with peak demand in July and August likely to surpass expectations due to rising temperatures [1][3]. 2. **Coal Price Trends**: - Coal prices have declined to **640-650 CNY/ton**, influenced by increased imports and domestic supply from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, alongside low electricity demand during a warm winter [1][4][7]. - The price is projected to rebound to **670-680 CNY/ton** as temperatures rise, with a stable bottom expected between **610-650 CNY/ton** [1][8]. 3. **Future of Thermal Power and New Energy Installations**: - New energy installations are expected to peak in **2024** at approximately **350 GW**, but policy changes and subsidy withdrawals may suppress future growth [5]. - The most significant pressure on thermal power is anticipated in **2025**, with a gradual easing of pressure expected by **2026** and potential growth in **2027** [5]. 4. **Impact of Leadership Changes in Xinjiang**: - Recent leadership changes in Xinjiang may affect coal production capacity expansion, potentially leading to a reduction in new coal capacity in the medium to long term [6]. 5. **Supply and Import Dynamics**: - Domestic coal supply is stabilizing but slightly declining, with imports expected to total **450-460 million tons** for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of **8-9 million tons** [7]. 6. **Market Supply-Demand Situation**: - The coal market is characterized by stable supply and rising demand, with a price bottom forming in early **2025** [8]. 7. **Government Policies on Market Competition**: - The Central Financial Committee's recent discussions emphasize the need to combat low-price competition and promote orderly market conditions, marking a shift towards market-driven adjustments rather than strict regulatory measures [2][9]. 8. **Lessons from the Cement Industry**: - The cement industry has successfully implemented collaborative production strategies to enhance profitability, which could serve as a model for other cyclical industries facing similar challenges [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a **prisoner's dilemma** scenario, where companies continue production despite losses to maintain market share, complicating efforts to reduce supply and stabilize prices [12][13][14]. - The unique characteristics of the cement industry, such as lower transportation costs and easier production adjustments, contrast sharply with the complexities faced by the coal and other heavy industries [15]. - The steel market is currently viewed as the most favorable among commodity sectors, while the coking coal market faces significant challenges, with over **90%** of companies reporting losses in the second quarter [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on leading companies in the coal sector, such as **Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry**, **China Shenhua Energy**, **China Coal Energy**, and **Jin控煤业**, as they align with current market trends and investment logic [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish; Polysilicon: Sideways [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large Xinjiang factories will have a significant impact on the industrial silicon fundamentals. The polysilicon market is facing issues such as high inventory and difficulty in spot transactions, and its price increase depends on production cuts and downstream price trends. The prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all under pressure, and their price rebounds may rely on administrative measures [11][12][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 7980 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 450 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 2195 yuan/ton to 35510 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N-type re-feeding material increased by 300 yuan/ton to 34700 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polysilicon Policy Game, Pay Attention to Shorting Opportunities on Industrial Silicon Rebounds - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week. Yunnan and Sichuan increased their furnace openings, while Xinjiang reduced production. The weekly output was 72,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.92%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, the industrial silicon may see a monthly inventory reduction of 60,000 tons; if it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may see a monthly inventory increase of 30,000 tons [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some factories carried out maintenance or reduced production, and some resumed work. The overall enterprise operating rate was 70.44%, the weekly output was 46,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21%, and the inventory was 49,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.39%. It is expected that the price will mainly operate stably [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly this week. The N-type re-feeding material price increased to 36 yuan/kg on July 2. However, the downstream silicon wafers are in a cash loss state, and the spot is difficult to trade. In July, the polysilicon production schedule will increase to 107,000 tons, leading to a monthly surplus. As of July 3, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 272,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers continued to decline this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.22GW as of July 3, a week-on-week decrease of 0.89GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 52GW, and the price has a sign of stopping falling [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 11.53GW as of June 30, a week-on-week decrease of 4.8GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 50GW, but the production reduction may be insufficient, and the inventory will still accumulate. The price may continue to decline [13] - **Components**: The price of components continued to decline this week. The initial production schedule of component factories in July is about 45GW, and the price is difficult to be supported fundamentally. The price rebound may rely on administrative measures [14] 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on industrial silicon rebounds, and pay attention to position management when building positions on the left side [15] - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. Consider taking profit on the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread at an appropriate time [15] 4. Hot News Summary - In May 2025, the utilization rate of national photovoltaic power generation was 94.2%, and that of wind power was 93.2% [16] - The first - phase 25GW monocrystalline silicon wafer project of Trina Solar's Huai'an base was completed and put into operation, and the second - phase project is under construction. The total planned investment of the project is 30 billion yuan [16] - On July 3, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase of 4.916 billion yuan and introduced 11 strategic investors [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, and the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half. The supply may increase during the wet season, while the demand is overall weak, with the export market expected to decline year-on-year. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is relatively weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] - The cost of industrial silicon may further decrease, but it is necessary to focus on policy impacts. The supply capacity has increased, but the output has decreased. The demand shows a pattern of significant recovery in exports and suppressed demand due to polysilicon production cuts [10][11][12] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. In the second half, the supply is affected by policy disturbances and cost pressures, with certain uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry is facing a situation of large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand, and the price will face greater pressure without policy intervention. The price is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] - The cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, mainly driven by the decline in raw material prices and energy cost optimization. The supply has decreased, and the pressure of overcapacity remains large. The demand is driven by the short - term increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, but the growth rate is expected to decline [19][20][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 First - Half Price Review Industrial Silicon - From January to February 2025, the industrial silicon price was relatively firm due to production cuts in the southwest and northwest regions. In March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. From April to May, the price accelerated its decline under the influence of the US trade war and falling raw material costs. In June, the price rebounded after hitting the bottom [6][33] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. It was stable around the Spring Festival and declined in April due to reduced downstream orders and falling raw material prices [18][34] 2025 Second - Half Price Outlook Industrial Silicon - The supply is expected to increase during the wet season, and the demand is overall weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] Polysilicon - The supply is affected by policy and cost, with uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry has large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. Without policy intervention, the price will face pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] Supply - Side Situation Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the overall furnace - opening rate was 27.62%. In 2024, about 650,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there were about 700,000 tons of built - but - unoperated capacity and nearly 1 million tons of planned capacity. The output from January to June 2024 decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to price drops and production cuts in most regions. The northwest has become the main production area [45][46] Polysilicon - In 2024, 850,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there are still about 470,000 tons of capacity under construction or built but unoperated. The production in the first half of 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, and the average operating rate of enterprises dropped to a historical low. The annual output is expected to decrease to about 1.2 million tons [20][102][109] Cost and Profit Industrial Silicon - In the first half of 2025, the raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the full cost and cash cost also decreased. The electricity price in some areas decreased, and the prices of silicon coal, charcoal, electrodes, and silica also declined. Without policy intervention, the cost may further decrease, but the decline space is limited [55][56] Polysilicon - In 2025, the production cost of polysilicon decreased significantly, mainly due to falling raw material prices and optimized energy costs. The current tax - free cash cost of granular silicon can be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of rod - shaped silicon is between 30,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton [19] Export - End - From January to May 2025, China's metal silicon exports totaled 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The annual export volume is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% year - on - year compared to 2024, mainly affected by the global economic outlook and overseas tariff policies [69] Consumption - End - In the first half of 2025, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly year - on - year, organic silicon increased slightly, and the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily. The export volume is expected to decline due to the slowdown of overseas economies [72] Organic Silicon - As of June, the total production capacity of Chinese organic silicon monomers reached 6.88 million tons/year. The production from January to June increased by about 1% year - on - year. The consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of the traditional construction industry decreasing and that of new energy, electronics, and other fields increasing. The overall consumption growth may slow down in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 5%. The price decreased after a slight rebound in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate was between 60% and 70% [72][73] Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the overall operation of the aluminum alloy industry remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon increased. From January to June, the production of primary aluminum alloy increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1% year - on - year. The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy increased, and the primary industrial silicon consumption in 2025 is expected to be 650,000 tons [92][95] Polysilicon (Continued) Supply - Side - In early 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity remained high, but the production decreased significantly in the first quarter due to low prices and industry self - discipline agreements. The production increased slightly in the second quarter, but the overall operating rate remained low [102] Consumption - Side - In the first half of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation rush significantly drove the demand for polysilicon, but the demand entered a vacuum period after June. The overseas market demand was weak. The growth rate of new installations in 2025 is expected to decline, with domestic new installations expected to be 310GW and global new installations about 610GW [112][114] Import and Export - From January to April, the export of photovoltaic modules decreased by 6% year - on - year. Only the African market showed significant growth, while the European, American, and Middle - Eastern markets declined [115] Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the inventory of the metal silicon industry was 970,000 tons. The inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, is expected to increase slightly in the wet season of the second half, and may decrease slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual inventory is expected to increase slightly, and the industry inventory pressure remains high [171] Polysilicon - The upstream inventory of polysilicon is large, and the total industry inventory is expected to be higher than 400,000 tons. The total inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and if the industry self - discipline production cuts are effective, a slight reduction in inventory is expected throughout the year [171]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell 0.62%, initially rising due to spot price increases but then dropping as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose 6.59% driven by anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but declined later as market sentiment faded [6]. - For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose as southwest electricity prices drop and northwest regions offer subsidies. Demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is operating at reduced capacity, and demand is under pressure due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry and high inventory levels. However, the release of a photovoltaic sand - control plan has improved market sentiment [6]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800, and the polysilicon main contract oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices initially rose due to spot price increases but fell as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry but declined later [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon supply will be loose, and demand from downstream sectors is weakening. Polysilicon supply is at reduced capacity, demand is under pressure, and inventory is high, but market sentiment has improved [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Industrial silicon main contract should oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800; polysilicon main contract should oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices increased, strengthening the basis; polysilicon futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the basis converged [7][12][16]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 8760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 765 yuan/ton; the polysilicon spot price was 32.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2531 yuan/g [14][20]. - **Supply Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 76,100 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 52.41% [23]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices slightly declined, electricity prices dropped, and overall costs continued to fall during the wet season [26]. - **Inventory**: This week, industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, but overall inventory continued to decline [31]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Output and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, and production continued, but future costs are expected to rise and output to decrease [37][43]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices declined, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, with little demand for industrial silicon expected [49]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: Prices continued to decline, dragging down polysilicon demand and thus industrial silicon demand [56]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, industrial silicon prices fell, overall production costs were stable, and polysilicon output is expected to gradually decline [63].

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月4日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 14000 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -65 | -125 | 60 | 48.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13900 | 13950 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 非标价差 | -115 | -175 | 60 | 34.29% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.55 | 48.20 | 0.35 | 0.73% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.50 | 55.00 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块 ...