Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The gaming industry is currently valued at approximately 20-21 times earnings, with historical rebounds to around 30 times, indicating significant growth potential [1][4] - Emerging consumer trends are driving the gaming market, particularly among young people who are enthusiastic about console games, mobile games, and platforms like Roblox [5] Key Companies and Performance - Huatuo has evolved into a platform-based gaming company, similar to Tencent and NetEase, with a market capitalization nearing 150 billion RMB and multiple games generating over 5 million USD each [3] - Other notable companies include Giant with its game "Supernatural Action Group," which has shown strong performance even post-summer, and Jibite, which reported better-than-expected mid-year results leading to a 20%-30% stock price increase [3] Investment Opportunities - The gaming sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividends, with Jibite having distributed nearly 7 billion RMB in dividends despite initial financing of only a few billion [4] - The industry is expected to benefit from supportive policies and relaxed regulations, enhancing the overall outlook [3] AR Applications - AR applications are seen as a crucial future development area, with companies like Nvidia benefiting from the demand for AR/VR applications [6] - Meitu and Kuaishou are highlighted as key players in the AR space, with Meitu having a strong position in the female photography market and potential collaborations with tech giants like Google [12] Emerging Consumer Trends - The collectible toy market, represented by Pop Mart, is gaining popularity, especially among young women, with significant success in international markets like Thailand [7][8] - Pop Mart's overseas revenue has reached 60% of total income, with expectations for further growth as the company expands its IP offerings [9] Challenges and Strategies - Pop Mart faces challenges in timely product launches to meet consumer demand, but maintaining a focus on user needs and high-quality production can sustain its competitive edge [10][11] Future Investment Recommendations - Strong emphasis on sectors such as gaming, collectible toys (like Pop Mart), and AI applications (like Meitu and Kuaishou) is advised, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [13]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The new consumption sector benefits from policy support and consumption upgrades, catering to the needs of Generation Z, with performance growth exceeding the industry average and long-term growth potential, particularly in areas like the pet economy and trendy IP derivatives [1][3][12] Core Insights and Arguments - New consumption companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, showing excellent single-store profitability and rapid store opening speeds, leading to significant growth and attracting attention from southern capital and overseas active equity funds [1][4] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is strong, with a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut on September 18, which is expected to enhance market risk appetite and liquidity, thereby increasing the valuation levels of the new consumption sector [5][6][7] - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market due to fundamental profit downgrades, liquidity contraction, and low valuation levels, but the new consumption sector may benefit from improved liquidity and upward revisions in performance [1][8][12] - Internet platform subsidies led to significant profit losses in the Hong Kong stock market in Q2, but some segments, like ready-to-eat beverage companies, benefited, although certain sub-sectors have seen corrections from previous highs [1][11] Additional Important Insights - The new consumption sector shows a clear sustainability in performance growth, driven by the high consumption willingness of young consumers, particularly in areas like the pet economy and trendy IP derivatives, with over two-thirds of young people's spending focused on emotional and seasonal consumption [3][6] - The new consumption sector is expected to lead market strength in the near future, especially in the Hong Kong market, as it transitions from goods to service-oriented and emotional consumption [2][12] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2025 is expected to lag behind the A-share market, particularly in sectors like software services, semiconductors, and consumer services, while sectors like pharmaceutical biotechnology and essential consumer retail may outperform [10] - The upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts are anticipated to significantly benefit non-essential and emotional stocks in the Hong Kong market, reinforcing the investment value of the new consumption sector [5][7] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on the new consumption sectors such as the pet economy, trendy concepts, and beauty care, which are expected to outperform traditional sectors due to policy support, consumption upgrades, and technological and channel innovations [1][12][13] - The Penghua Fund's National Index Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159,265) tracks the National Index Hong Kong Consumption Index, which has a high concentration of new consumption stocks, making it suitable for investors [1][16] - Investors are advised to use index-based tools for investment in the new consumption sector, which is characterized by new products, channels, and marketing models, and to consider the Penghua Fund's index products for diversified exposure [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has been declining, with a drop of over 7% recently, reflecting market concerns about its sustainability and valuation risks despite strong financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 8, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.78%, closing at 288.6 HKD per share [1]. - The short-selling data for Pop Mart has significantly increased, with short positions rising from 285,800 shares on August 29 to 6,266,200 shares by the previous Friday [2]. Group 2: Product Performance - The resale prices of the mini LABUBU figures have decreased significantly, with second-hand prices dropping to between 1,400 and 1,850 RMB, and some less popular styles falling to as low as 81 RMB [1][2]. - The mini LABUBU series was launched on August 28, with an original price of 79 RMB per blind box, but the average resale price has decreased by 60% from its initial peak [1][2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion RMB, up 362.8% [2]. - Despite the strong financial results, some institutions express concerns about the long-term sustainability and short-term valuation risks of Pop Mart [2][3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The stock has seen a significant price increase of 588% over the past 12 months, leading to profit-taking pressures in the short term [3]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that while the net profit growth exceeded expectations, it only "roughly met" the elevated expectations from buyers [3].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced adjustments to the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible securities list, effective from September 8, including the addition of companies like Chow Tai Fook (06168) and Jin Jing New Energy (01783) [1] - The Hang Seng Index Company revealed the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for the second quarter of 2025, with Chow Tai Fook, China Foods (00506), and Hengrui Medicine (01276) being included in the Hang Seng Composite Index constituents, effective from September 8 [1] - Analysts suggest that companies included in the Stock Connect are expected to attract more southbound capital and passive funds, leading to a significant increase in short-term liquidity [1] Group 2 - Chow Tai Fook (06168) reported a revenue of 3.15 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 415 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [2] - The company is exploring lighter and more fashionable product designs, utilizing strategies such as IP collaborations and combinations of gold with other materials to enhance customer loyalty, gross margin, and profitability [2] - Jin Jing New Energy (01783) recently launched its first battery recycling demonstration line in Rhode Island, marking a new phase for the group in the North American circular economy sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable performance of Pop Mart, particularly driven by the LABUBU series, which has seen explosive growth in revenue and market interest, reminiscent of past trends in collectible markets like "sneaker flipping" and "bearbrick speculation" [3][4][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit surged by 362.8% to 4.71 billion RMB during the same period [3]. - The LABUBU series alone generated 4.81 billion RMB in revenue, a staggering growth of 668%, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Sales - The launch of the mini LABUBU on August 28 sold out within 60 seconds, with a peak resale price reaching 1,388 RMB, a 1,657% markup from the original price of 79 RMB [3][5]. - Over 580,000 consumers added the mini LABUBU to their shopping carts before the sale, indicating high demand [5]. - The secondary market saw prices for complete sets of LABUBU toys reaching an average of 1,920.77 RMB, with some transactions exceeding 2,580 RMB [6]. Group 3: Global Expansion - Pop Mart operates 571 retail stores and 2,597 robot stores across 18 countries and regions as of mid-2025 [9]. - Revenue from the Asia-Pacific region reached 2.85 billion RMB, up 258%, while the Americas saw revenue of 2.27 billion RMB, increasing by 1,142% [9]. - The company’s global strategy includes opening flagship stores in major cities, such as London and Paris, to enhance brand visibility [9]. Group 4: IP Development and Future Outlook - Pop Mart emphasizes a balanced development of its IP matrix, with five IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in sales each during the first half of 2025 [10]. - The LABUBU brand is seen as a "gold mine" with potential for further exploration and innovation in product applications [11]. - The company is building a "LABUBU universe" to expand its product offerings and enhance consumer engagement [11]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The success of LABUBU reflects a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among Generation Z, who prioritize emotional connection and self-rewarding purchases [12]. - The article notes a trend towards more rational consumption, with consumers becoming less impulsive and more focused on the actual value of collectible items [12].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market reflects the steady recovery of the real economy, with the new consumption trend gaining momentum, driven by policy support and evolving consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since August, the new consumption trend has shown a resurgence, with certain trendy toy IP companies experiencing a maximum increase of over 30% [2] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a moderate recovery, with a consensus on expanding domestic demand, suggesting that the consumer sector is in a phase of stabilization and potential growth [2] - The current consumption landscape differs from the 2019-2020 period, characterized by a shift towards emotional spending and cultural confidence, requiring fund managers to adopt a bottom-up stock selection approach [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes in new consumption are identified: spiritual consumption products like trendy gold jewelry, cost-effective mass consumer goods, and domestic beauty and personal care products [2][3] - The demand for trendy gold jewelry is shifting from traditional wedding uses to self-indulgence, with brands offering affordable, aesthetically pleasing products that appeal to younger consumers [3] - Cost-effective consumer goods are gaining traction as consumers prioritize value over brand loyalty, with strategies like bulk purchasing and reduced distribution costs enhancing market penetration [3] Group 3: Performance and Strategy - The funds managed by the company have shown significant growth, with net value growth rates of 29.50% and 23.84% for two products, outperforming their respective benchmarks [4] - The company aims to continue selecting companies with strong competitive advantages and barriers to entry in thriving industries to drive portfolio returns [4]

Group 1: Overview of China's Consumer Market in 2025 - The Chinese consumer market in the first half of 2025 shows a unique trend of "macro caution, micro activity," with consumer confidence at historical lows while core consumption categories are steadily recovering [12][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with May's growth rate reaching a two-year high [16][19] - The food category led the growth with a 12.3% year-on-year increase, driven by the rapid expansion of new channels like snack specialty stores and membership discount supermarkets [16][19] Group 2: Tourism Recovery - The tourism industry has seen a strong recovery, with international flight passenger volumes in the first and second quarters of 2025 increasing by 9% and 13% compared to the same periods in 2019 [20][36] - Domestic travel also surged, with 329 million trips taken in the first half of 2025, an 18% increase from 2019 [20][36] - The number of inbound tourists reached over 35 million in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [29][36] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - China has become the world's largest automobile exporter, with nearly 5.5 million vehicles exported in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2019 [24][28] - NEVs accounted for nearly half of passenger car exports in the first half of 2025, with domestic brands holding a market share close to 90% in the NEV segment [28][21] - BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer in 2024, with sales reaching 4.27 million units and revenue of $108 billion [28] Group 4: Cultural Export and Trends - The cultural export sector, particularly in video games and trendy toys, has gained momentum, with the game "Black Myth: Wukong" selling 28 million copies and generating revenue of 9 billion yuan [42][43] - The toy brand Pop Mart's Labubu character has gained global popularity, with revenue from the "Monster Series" increasing by 726% year-on-year, reaching over 3 billion yuan [43][46] - The overseas market contribution to Pop Mart's revenue rose from 4% in 2021 to 39% in 2024, indicating a significant expansion [43] Group 5: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market in Hong Kong saw a significant rebound in the first half of 2025, with total financing reaching 107.1 billion HKD, a substantial increase from the previous year [37][41] - Consumer-related companies have become a major force in the capital market, with four out of the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong coming from the consumer sector [37][41] - Private equity and venture capital activities also surged, with transaction volumes in the second quarter reaching 2.28 trillion yuan, doubling from the previous quarter [41] Group 6: Foreign Brands in China - Foreign brands are experiencing a resurgence in China, particularly in the outdoor sportswear segment, which has seen sales double over the past five years [47] - Several new or expanding brands have achieved annual revenues exceeding $500 million, reflecting the growing consumer interest in health and outdoor activities [47] - This trend indicates a robust market opportunity for international brands to adapt to local demands and capitalize on China's consumption upgrade [47]

研究报告 Research Report 7 Sep 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 澳优 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 九毛九 | | Outperform | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 康 ...

证券分析师 证券研究报告 | 商贸零售 | | --- | 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 07 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 体育产业支持政策落地；国内折叠自行车龙头新股上市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.9.1-2025.9.5） 投资要点： 1）品牌力：根据灼识咨询的数据，按 2024 年零售量计，公司在中国内地折叠自行 车行业排名第一，市场份额达 26.3%，按 2024 年零售额计，公司亦位居中国内地折 叠自行车行业首位，市场份额为 36.5%。 2）渠道力：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，公司与遍布中国 30 个省级行政区的 38 家经 销商合作，覆盖 680 个零售点。分渠道看，国内经销收入为公司收入的主要构成， 2024 年公司国内经销收入 3.07 亿元，占公司总收入的 68%；国内直销收入占 2024 年公司收入的 25%。于往绩记录期间，大行的产品销往中国内地以外的 28 个国家和 地区，包括日本、泰国、美国及欧盟。 3）产品力：大行自行车主要包括 ...

Key Points - The article discusses significant events in the international expansion of various companies, highlighting trends and developments in the global market [2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - TikTok Shop in the US has hired Autumn Communications as its public relations agency, with sales in the US increasing by 120% year-on-year as of mid-June [5][8]. - TikTok Shop's gross merchandise volume (GMV) in Indonesia reached $6.2 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year, while the US remains the largest market with $9 billion [10]. - Temu has captured 15.98% of the Mexican e-commerce market, surpassing competitors like Mercado Libre and Amazon [10][11]. - AliExpress is preparing a high-profile brand export project, aiming to launch before the Double 11 shopping festival, with aggressive growth targets [14]. - Meituan's food delivery service Keeta plans to pilot in Brazil in October, targeting a market worth $12 billion with an expected annual growth rate of 20% [15][17]. - Baidu has launched the "SnapEat AI" app for fitness tracking overseas, utilizing AI to provide nutritional information from food images [19]. - Bawang Tea has opened its first stores in the Philippines, expanding its international presence to seven markets [20][22]. - TOP TOY has opened its first store in Japan, achieving sales of over 11 million yen on the first day [25]. Group 2: Industry Trends - AI is increasingly becoming a partner for small and medium enterprises, with 63% of global SMEs adopting AI in trade [27]. - New cross-border e-commerce policies in China have eliminated the registration requirement for overseas warehouses, enhancing operational efficiency by 35% [28]. - The US AI startup Anthropic has banned Chinese companies from using its services, citing legal and security risks [30][32]. - Mercado Livre is entering the pharmaceutical retail sector in Brazil through the acquisition of a pharmacy, aiming to leverage its logistics network [35]. - The Mexican government plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly in the automotive and textile sectors, to protect local businesses [37]. - The largest Korean fashion e-commerce platform, MUSINSA, is entering the Chinese market with plans to open over 100 stores by 2030 [38][40]. - B&Q, the UK's largest home and garden retailer, is opening its platform to Chinese sellers, creating new opportunities for cross-border e-commerce [42][43].