报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 经中美日内瓦会谈后，双方关税回到 4 月 2 日再各加 10%水平，双方关系缓 和超预期，市场情绪明显提振。从宏观经济基本面来看，一季度开局良好，且随 着"抢出口"转为"抢转口"，外贸数据表现出一定韧性，宏观经济表现或好于 原本预期。国内政策方面，随着 5.7 政策落地，国家稳市场、稳预期信心进一步 增强，同时互换便利与回购增持再贷款额度合并后"国家队"资金储备充足，股 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 5 月 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on May 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3389.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.12% to 10238.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.35% to 2055.06 points [1] - The shipping and logistics sectors continued to rise, with notable performances from companies like Lianyungang, Nanjing Port, Ningbo Maritime, and Ningbo Ocean, achieving three consecutive days of gains [1] - The consumer sector showed strong performance, particularly in the beauty and personal care segment, which rose by 4.49%, while the food and beverage sector followed closely [1] Group 2 - The shipping market is experiencing a surge due to improved export demand expectations and adjustments in U.S.-China tariff policies, leading to a rush in shipping activities as the traditional transportation peak season approaches [2] - Some leading shipping companies have indicated price increases for June, creating a forward price anchoring effect, while the overall market sentiment has shifted positively due to the easing of trade tensions [2] - The futures market has seen significant increases, with the European shipping contract rising over 40% in four trading days, reflecting the bullish sentiment in the shipping sector [2] Group 3 - Future sustainability of the shipping market recovery depends on three key variables: the strength of inventory replenishment in Europe and the U.S., shipping companies' capacity control measures, and geopolitical risk premiums [3] - If the PMI new orders index remains above 55 in May, the peak season could extend until August, while significant capacity management by major shipping lines could push freight rates up by 15% to 20% [3] - Long-term supply pressure remains, with a 10% year-on-year expansion in the global container fleet, which may challenge the recovery cycle by the end of Q3 [3]

老铁们，帮主盯着盘面直拍大腿——今天A股这出戏太刺激了！三大指数集体玩起高台跳水，创业板半天就栽了1.35%，3600只股票绿得发慌。但你们猜怎 么着？美容、港口、农业这几个板块愣是杀出重围，上演逆袭剧本！ 港口航运的逆袭密码 中日韩自贸区谈判重启的消息，让沿海港口集体嗨了。连云港、宁波海运涨停不是偶然——三国贸易量每增10%，港口吞吐量就能涨15%。但老铁们注意 了，这波行情有"政策预期"加持，等具体协议落地可能利好出尽，现在追高容易被挂旗杆。 农业股竟成避风港？ 中央一号文件提到的"农业新质生产力"，让秋乐种业这类企业突然吃香。数字农业管理系统能精准控制施肥量，节水30%的同时增产15%，这才是资金追捧 的硬逻辑。但农业股波动大得像坐过山车，没金刚钻别揽瓷器活。 先说这冰火两重天 开盘半小时就看出端倪：AI智能体、液冷服务器这些科技小鲜肉集体扑街，军工老大哥也蔫了吧唧。反观美容护理板块，芭薇股份直接30cm涨停，连云 港、川宁生物这些冷门股突然变显眼包。这行情就像火锅局——辣锅沸腾（消费股），清汤寡水（科技股），吃得人冰火两重天。 美容股为啥突然吃香？ 山东卫健委刚甩出王炸政策——允许医美机构搞光电注射项 ...

Market Overview - On May 15, A-shares experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.42% to 3389.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.35% [1][2] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 765.59 billion yuan [1] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 645 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan for the day [2] Industry Insights - The China-U.S. Economic and Trade Cooperation Exchange Conference was successfully held in Washington, emphasizing the long-standing and mutually beneficial trade relationship between the two countries [3] - Despite current challenges, there is significant potential for future cooperation, particularly in maintaining global supply chain stability [3] Sector Performance - Port and shipping stocks saw a resurgence, with notable increases in shares of Nanjing Port, Lianyungang, and Ningbo Maritime [3] - Beauty and personal care stocks also performed well, with companies like Jieya Co. and Furuida reaching their daily limit up [3] - Synthetic biology stocks were active, with companies such as Chuaning Biological, Jindawei, and Hainan Haiya hitting their daily limit up [3] Sector Trends - The synthetic biology sector is expected to grow, with significant applications in various fields, although it currently holds a limited share in the overall chemical market [4] - The international landscape for synthetic biology is primarily dominated by the U.S. and Europe, which may influence domestic policy and development [4] Company Profiles 1. **Chuaning Biological**: Focuses on synthetic biology with products in production and plans to expand into high-value products and efficient strains by 2025 [7] 2. **Jieya Co.**: A leading manufacturer of wet wipes, shifting focus towards wet toilet paper and expanding into medical devices and cosmetics [8] 3. **Furuida**: Aims to build a comprehensive health industry chain, leveraging R&D strengths in cosmetics and pharmaceuticals [8] 4. **Jindawei**: Positioned as a leader in the health supplement market, benefiting from market expansion and stable financial performance [8]

| 电子 | | | | 朝阳科技 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | -1.52 | 339.69 | -16.08 | 立昂技术 | -6.83 | | 国防军工 | -1.72 | 373.12 | -3.43 | 天箭科技 | -8.86 | | 计算机 | -2.32 | 698.73 | 8.09 | 志晟信息 | -10.09 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌0.42%，A股成交量658.94亿股，成交金额7655.90亿 元，比上一个交易日增加4.16%。个股方面，1613只个股上涨，其中涨停60只，3607只个股下跌，其中 跌停9只。从申万行业来看，美容护理、煤炭、农林牧渔等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.11%、1.08%、 0.65%；计算机、国防军工、通信等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.32%、1.72%、1.52%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅 ...

Market Overview - On May 15, the three major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened lower and experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3389.75 points, down 0.42%, with a trading volume of approximately 293.5 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10238.63 points, down 1.12%, with a trading volume of approximately 446.9 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 2055.06 points, down 1.35%, with a trading volume of approximately 206.2 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed strength, with significant gains in beauty care, pet economy, and food sectors, including stocks like Jieya Co., Lafang Home, and Xiwang Food hitting the daily limit [1] - The synthetic biology concept also surged, with stocks like Chuaning Biology, Furida, and Jindawei reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, computing power concept stocks underwent adjustments, with Hongjing Technology dropping nearly 10% [1] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities noted that the temporary easing of tariff policies benefits electronic companies exporting directly to the U.S., reducing costs associated with transshipment trade, and provides a window for domestic consumer electronics companies [3] - Huatai Securities highlighted the CIBF2025 event focusing on solid-state batteries and related technologies, indicating a strong interest in the solid-state battery sector [3] - Changjiang Securities emphasized that stable fundamentals, high dividend logic, and the expansion of passive funds will drive the continued recovery of undervalued bank stocks [3] News Highlights - China led the development of international standards for an aging-inclusive digital economy, with the ISO publishing guidelines that address the participation of the elderly in various digital economic scenarios [4] - Sensor Tower reported that global in-app purchase revenue for short video applications reached nearly $700 million in Q1 2025, nearly quadrupling from Q1 2024, with the U.S. being the highest revenue market [5] - Heng Rui Medicine officially launched a global public offering of H-shares, planning to issue 225 million shares, with a potential maximum fundraising amount of 13.08 billion HKD [6]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.86%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.01. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 13,165.99 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financials, transportation, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while defense, beauty care, and machinery sectors lagged behind [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.3%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.13%. In the overseas markets, the Dow Jones fell by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose by 0.72% [2][7] Important News - The U.S. has adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff, with 24% of these tariffs suspended for 90 days. Additionally, the tax rate on small packages from China has been reduced from 120% to 54% [3][8] - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year as of the end of April, with M2 balance growing by 8%. In the first four months of the year, new RMB loans increased by 1,006 billion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 1,634 billion yuan [3][8] Industry Analysis - The report highlights a new policy initiative from seven departments aimed at accelerating the establishment of a technology finance system to support high-level technological self-reliance and innovation. This includes the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund and enhanced support for technology innovation through various financial mechanisms [9][10] - The policy aims to promote regional innovation practices and enhance financial services for national strategic technology forces, thereby accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies and facilitating the transformation of technological achievements into commercial applications [10][11] Cosmetics Industry Overview - The cosmetics industry has shown overall weak performance due to external factors and recovering consumer demand. However, some companies have achieved significant revenue and net profit growth due to strong product capabilities and flexible marketing strategies [12] - From January 1 to May 6, 2025, the cosmetics sector rose by 29.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 32.28 percentage points. Notable performers include Bawei Co., which led the OEM sector, and Ruifeng Co., which led the brand sector [12][13] - Financial performance varies across segments, with some companies like Proya and Marubi showing strong growth, while others face short-term pressure. The report emphasizes the importance of R&D investment and product quality in driving future growth [13]

01 市场洞察 宏观经济承压，关税博弈影响下股债表现分化 4月，国内宏观经济总体承压，反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得49.0%，在3月份50.5% 的基础上回落1.5%，时隔两个月重回收缩区间。制造业景气水平的回落主要是受到生产指数、 新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比下行所带来的影响。3月份CPI同比降低0.1%， PPI同比下降2.8%。相比于2月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.7%和2.2%而言，CPI降幅收窄主要 是受到食品价格降幅缩小和服务价格由降转升的影响；生产资料价格和生活资料价格的降幅上 升，使得PPI同比降幅扩大。 晨 星 月 报 4月，在美国关税政策的扰动下，包括中国在内的全球多个国家和地区的股市均出现了较大幅 度的调整。随后，国家队和央企出手托底市场，助力A股超跌反弹。中旬以来，虽然一季度超 预期的经济数据和中美关税博弈一度出现缓和使得股市继续企稳，但随着市场开始评估关税博 弈对上市公司盈利水平的负面影响，以及月末公布的PMI数据不及预期，令股市再度承压。从 投资侧来看，主要股指在4月集体收跌，其中上证指数和深证成指分别下跌1.70%和5.75%。代 表大盘股、中盘股和小 ...

沪指5月14日上涨0.86%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有24个，涨幅居前的行业为非银金融、交通运 输，涨幅分别为3.99%、1.79%。跌幅居前的行业为国防军工、美容护理，跌幅分别为0.74%、0.39%。 美容护理行业位居今日跌幅榜第二。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入45.92亿元，今日有13个行业主力资金净流入，非银金融行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨3.99%，全天净流入资金87.55亿元，其次是交通运输行业，日 涨幅为1.79%，净流入资金为25.32亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有18个，电力设备行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金28.94亿元， 其次是电子行业，净流出资金为20.89亿元，净流出资金较多的还有国防军工、机械设备、汽车等行 业。 美容护理行业今日下跌0.39%，全天主力资金净流出3124.46万元，该行业所属的个股共31只，今日上涨 的有7只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有22只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有12只， 净流入资金居首的是青岛金王，今日净流入资金7105.64万元，紧随其后的是珀莱雅、两面针，净流入 资金分别为1788.39万元、7 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指跌0.08%，A股成交量432.28亿股，成交金额5329.18亿 元，比上一个交易日减少27.38%。个股方面，1306只个股上涨，其中涨停43只，3867只个股下跌，其 中跌停8只。从申万行业来看，有色金属、通信、交通运输等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为0.70%、0.44%、 0.42%；美容护理、纺织服饰、电力设备等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.09%、1.03%、0.93%。（数据宝） | 轻工制造 | | | | 中荣股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | -0.93 | 390.07 | -42.37 | 华民股份 | -9.35 | | 纺织服饰 | -1.03 | 76.13 | -27.88 | 太湖雪 | -8.55 | | 美容护理 | -1.09 | 40.33 | 1.91 | 稳健医疗 | -3.29 | 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | ...