黑色建材日报 2026-02-06 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...

| 品种 | 价格 | 环比（%） | 同比（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | | | | 动力煤（发热量5000-5500大卡） | 777 | 0.0 | -5.0 | | 二号无烟块煤（2号，洗选块煤） | 1139 | 0.1 | -9.6 | | 柴油（0#） | 6881 | 0.0 | -14.1 | | 汽油（92#） | 8244 | 0.5 | -13.4 | | 螺纹钢（Φ16-25mm） | 3361 | -0.1 | -7.3 | | 高速线材（Φ6.5mm） | 3555 | -0.2 | -6.5 | ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4075.92, down by 0.64% (-26.29 points) [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13952.71, down by 1.44% (-203.56 points) [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4670.42, down by 0.60% (-28.26 points) [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3260.28, down by 1.55% (-51.24 points) [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1432.52, down by 1.44% (-20.95 points) [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 1507.29, down by 2.03% (-31.28 points) [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (3.21%), Banks (1.57%), and Food & Beverage (1.31%) [3] - The worst-performing sectors included Non-ferrous Metals (-4.57%), Electric Power Equipment (-3.41%), and Coal (-2.22%) [3] - Concept sectors showing strength included Horse Racing (1.89%) and Duty-Free Shops (1.33%) [3] - Concept sectors underperforming included BC Battery (-5.18%) and Lead Metal (-4.14%) [3] Market Outlook - The market experienced a weak adjustment with all major indices closing lower, particularly the ChiNext Index [4] - Consumer sectors showed resilience with significant activity in Food & Beverage, Retail, and Tourism [4] - The financial sector strengthened in the afternoon, while commodities like Non-ferrous Metals and Oil & Gas faced declines [4] - The overall market sentiment indicated more stocks declining than rising, with over 3700 stocks down [6] Economic Indicators - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.18 trillion, a decrease of 304.8 billion from the previous trading day [6] - Industrial profits for large-scale industrial enterprises are projected to grow by only 0.6% in 2025, below GDP growth [6] - The People's Bank of China emphasized support for key sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [5] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected declines in the overseas economy and prolonged high interest rates affecting domestic liquidity [7] - Trade tensions between China and the U.S. could further pressure domestic exports [7]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 6 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | | --- | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | | 0531-81678626 | | | 客服电话： | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 公司网址： | | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锰硅 | — | 螺纹钢 | | 豆粕 | 焦煤 | 铁矿石 | | PVC | 玉米 | 热轧卷板 | | 棕櫚油 | 焦炭 | 菜粕 | | 塑料 | 玉米淀粉 | 郑棉 | | 沥青 | 沪铜 | 玻璃 | | 橡胶 | 护锡 | 沪铅 | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | PTA | | | | 白糖 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 护银 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-06 现实压⼒仍存，盘⾯弱势调整 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现承压。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压⼒渐显，盘⾯表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进⼝处于⾼位，盘⾯⾼位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现承压。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压力渐显，盘面表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库支撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进口处于高位，盘面高位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开两会，宏观 预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预 期，随着补库接近尾声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随 成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。国内煤矿临 近假期产量将逐 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth. Shanghai's government report indicates a target growth of around 5% for 2026 [4][16] - China's official manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [4][16] Group 2: Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [4][16] Group 3: Steel Market Overview - On February 5, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 986,000 tons, a decrease of 4.6% month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel from 237 mainstream traders dropped by 22.7% [5][17] - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills is 39.39%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.2858 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6 tons [6][18] - Total supply of five major steel products is 8.199 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory increased by 4.6% to 13.3775 million tons [6][18] Group 4: Rebar and Hot Rolled Steel - Rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons. Demand has decreased significantly due to seasonal factors [7][19] - Hot rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons. The market is expected to continue experiencing narrow fluctuations as demand declines [8][20] Group 5: Alloy Market - Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with overall supply remaining low and production changes being minimal. Demand from steel mills has slightly increased, but recovery progress is constrained by profit margins and safety production [10][22]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is a crucial sector for the national economy, facing significant pressure from market, environmental, and cost factors, and is actively pursuing energy efficiency and carbon reduction initiatives to align with national carbon neutrality goals [1][3][7]. Group 1: Energy Efficiency and Carbon Reduction Initiatives - The "Extreme Energy Efficiency Project" was launched in December 2022, aiming to achieve energy savings of over 24 million tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60 million tons, exceeding initial targets [1]. - The steel industry heavily relies on coal and coke, which account for over 90% of energy inputs, contributing to high carbon emissions. The core technical pathway for carbon reduction before 2030 focuses on systematic energy efficiency improvements, which hold a potential 15% reduction in carbon emissions [2]. - By 2025, over 50 demonstration enterprises are expected to invest a total of 40.9 billion yuan, with an average investment of 700 million yuan per enterprise, leading to a reduction in energy costs by 29 yuan per ton of steel [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Application - Technological innovation is essential for addressing the "high carbon lock-in" challenge in the steel industry, with a focus on promoting advanced energy-saving and carbon-reducing technologies [5]. - The "Extreme Energy Efficiency Capability List (2025 Edition)" has been released, expanding to cover 134 technologies across seven categories, emphasizing full-process energy efficiency and results transformation [5]. - The implementation of intelligent management systems has led to significant reductions in energy loss, with one case reporting a 30-degree Celsius decrease in temperature drop at the iron-steel interface, resulting in annual savings of 9,580 tons of standard coal and a reduction of 25,500 tons of carbon dioxide [6]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Future Directions - The steel industry will be included in the national carbon emissions trading market by 2025, introducing dual constraints on total carbon emissions and carbon intensity, which will guide the industry's energy consumption control strategies [7]. - Future evaluations of extreme energy efficiency will shift from focusing solely on individual process energy consumption to a comprehensive evaluation system integrating carbon control [7]. - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) plans to enhance collaboration among enterprises, universities, and research institutions to address technological challenges and promote joint research efforts [8].

Core Viewpoint - ArcelorMittal reported a 1.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for 2025, amounting to $61.4 billion, primarily due to falling steel prices and weak European demand [2] Financial Performance - The average global steel price decreased by 2.3%, leading to a 7.3% drop in EBITDA to $6.54 billion [2] - Adjusted net profit increased by 26.3% year-on-year to $2.938 billion, with adjusted earnings per share rising to $3.85 from $2.95 in 2024 [2] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its prospects for 2026, planning to increase capital expenditures to $4.5-5 billion, up from $4.3 billion in 2025 [2] - A dividend of $0.60 per share will be distributed to shareholders, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year's $0.55 [2] Market Context - The CEO highlighted that trade wars and tariffs, particularly in Europe through the carbon border adjustment mechanism, are expected to benefit domestic steel production and demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The focus on major regional strategies to create green development highlands is essential for high-quality development and serves as a driving force for sustainable economic growth [1][5]. Group 1: Regional Economic Contributions - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, covering 6.6% of the national land area, contribute over 40% of the economic output, highlighting their role as core engines for high-quality development [1]. - The Yangtze River Delta Ecological Green Integrated Development Demonstration Zone has achieved an average nominal GDP growth rate of 7.3% while reducing PM2.5 concentration by over 20% since 2019, indicating a successful balance between economic growth and environmental protection [2]. Group 2: Institutional Innovations - The establishment of the Yangtze River Delta Demonstration Zone has led to 161 institutional innovations, including a collaborative mechanism for ecological judicial protection, which are being replicated nationwide [2]. - The core project "Water Town Living Room" exemplifies the integration of high-level platforms for water pollution control and resource recycling, showcasing the role of technological innovation in environmental governance [2]. Group 3: Methodological Insights - The practices in the Yangtze River Delta provide a verifiable methodology that demonstrates economic development can occur under strict ecological constraints, aligning with the principles of building a beautiful China [3]. - The successful models from the three major regions in industrial transformation, energy structure adjustment, and cross-regional collaborative governance should be systematically summarized and standardized for broader implementation [4]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - Focusing on major regional strategies for green development transcends mere ecological improvements, representing a profound transformation in development patterns that can provide critical demonstrations for national resource and environmental challenges [5]. - The need for deepened cross-regional cooperation and effective mechanisms for experience sharing is crucial for replicating successful models across different regions, thereby enhancing the role of green development highlands in supporting the broader goals of a beautiful China [4][5].

Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The transformation of scientific research into practical applications is emphasized, with a shift from "finding problems after having people" to "finding people after identifying problems" [10] - A collaborative innovation mechanism involving enterprises, universities, and government is being established in Sichuan to enhance the conversion of research outcomes into industrial applications [10] - The report highlights the importance of utilizing the intellectual resources from Sichuan's numerous universities to address real-world industrial challenges [10] Group 2: Industrial Green Development - Industrial green development is crucial for achieving ecological sustainability in Sichuan, with three main strategies proposed: using clean energy, enhancing resource efficiency through technology, and promoting material recycling [11][12] - The increase in the value added by enterprises engaged in waste recycling in Sichuan has grown by nearly 90% since 2018, indicating a positive trend in industrial ecological practices [12] Group 3: Financial Services - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide tailored support for long-term projects, such as pharmaceutical research, demonstrating the need for patience and commitment in financing [14] - In the previous year, the Construction Bank's Sichuan branch issued over 130 billion yuan in loans, with a significant portion (45 billion yuan) allocated to technology loans, marking a 38.4% increase [15] - The bank aims to enhance its service offerings by integrating various financial products to support local industries and promote a sustainable economic cycle [15] Group 4: Digital Cultural Creation - The integration of technology and culture is highlighted as a means to effectively narrate Sichuan's stories, with successful examples including the creation of cultural mascots that resonate with both local and international audiences [16][18] - The development of digital cultural products, such as the "Pink Panda" figurine, showcases the fusion of AI technology and artistic expression, enhancing Sichuan's cultural visibility on a global scale [17][18]