Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's Q3 report shows a net profit of 10.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.65%, indicating potential cyclical recovery or peak performance [1] Valuation Screening - Current stock price is 10.17 yuan with a P/E ratio of approximately 12, reflecting market caution towards cyclical industries [3] - The P/B ratio is 2.38, suggesting concerns about potential profit peaks and aluminum price declines [3] - If the company can leverage its full industry chain advantage to smooth out cyclical fluctuations, the current valuation may represent a significant investment opportunity [3] Fundamental Screening - Profit quality has improved, with a gross margin increase to 17.31% over four consecutive quarters, indicating effective cost control and product optimization [4] - The debt ratio has decreased to 46.38%, enhancing financial health [4] - As one of the largest alumina producers globally, China Aluminum benefits from a fully integrated supply chain, leading to superior resource security and cost control [4] - Operating cash flow reached 25.38 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a mid-term dividend of 0.82 yuan per share, reflecting strong financial fundamentals [4] Industry Trend Screening - The company is positioned at the intersection of limited supply and new demand drivers, with a production cap of 45 million tons for electrolytic aluminum under current policies [5] - The "dual carbon" goals make it challenging to introduce new production capacity, effectively locking in supply [5] - New demand from sectors like electric vehicles, photovoltaic supports, and energy storage systems is robust, potentially offsetting weakness in traditional construction sectors and driving aluminum prices into a new phase [5] Capital Flow Screening - Recent data shows a net inflow of 929 million yuan from major funds, indicating a positive attitude from large investors [6] - The number of shareholders has decreased to 356,300, suggesting a concentration of shares as retail investors exit while institutions accumulate [6] - However, the proportion of major holdings remains low, indicating that large funds have not yet formed a strong bullish consensus [6] Strategy Recommendations - For conservative investors, it is advisable to gradually accumulate shares at lower prices, particularly around the 60-day moving average of 8.05 yuan, given the current valuation's safety margin [7] - Aggressive investors may consider technical breakouts, particularly if the stock price surpasses the resistance level of 10.50 yuan with sustained inflows from major funds, while setting a stop-loss below 9.75 yuan [8]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a strategic focus on the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating that the most significant overseas disturbances may be gradually passing, with domestic factors such as the Fourth Plenary Session and third-quarter report verification likely to boost market risk appetite [3][9][11] - The report highlights the importance of technology growth sectors, particularly AI, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as key areas for investment opportunities [2][12][13] - The AI sector is identified as a focal point, with a focus on the global computing power supply chain and domestic innovation, particularly in GPU and semiconductor equipment [12][13] Group 2 - The military industry is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity, supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes national strategic deployment and the release of new orders [12][13] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen sufficient emotional digestion, with expectations for revaluation driven by business development and global monetary easing [12][13] - The report includes a selection of "golden stocks" for November, including Tianshan Aluminum, Weiming Environmental Protection, and Sany Heavy Industry, among others, with a focus on their growth and value potential [4][8][19][22][33] Group 3 - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 22.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, and a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.3% [15][16] - Weiming Environmental Protection achieved a revenue of 5.88 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 2.14 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.14% [22][23] - Sany Heavy Industry's revenue for 2024 was reported at 77.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.22%, and a net profit of 5.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.98% [33][35] Group 4 - The report outlines a growth strategy for Tianshan Aluminum, focusing on its integrated aluminum industry chain and cost advantages from self-supplied power generation [15][19] - Weiming Environmental Protection's new material business has begun to generate revenue and profit, indicating a potential second growth curve for the company [22][25] - Sany Heavy Industry's global strategy has shown significant results, with international revenue accounting for 63.98% of total revenue, reflecting a strong performance in overseas markets [33][35] Group 5 - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for the selected stocks, indicating expected growth rates and profitability for the upcoming years [8][19][22] - The growth and value portfolios have been adjusted for November, highlighting companies with strong fundamentals and market positions [4][8][19][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market conditions and company performance to identify potential investment opportunities [3][9][11]

Core Insights - The company reported stable revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 63% [1] - The company is investing in a new project to produce 25,000 tons of new energy aluminum foil, which will enhance product value and extend its processing capabilities downstream [3] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.633 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.60% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.187 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.25% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company generated revenue of 6.059 billion yuan, up 5.58% year-on-year and 9.13% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 480 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 69.03% [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 13.48%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.42%, up 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost and Efficiency - The company experienced a slight increase in expense ratios, with total period expense ratio rising to 5.35%, up 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses [2] - The asset-liability ratio improved to 31.03% by the end of Q3 2025, a decrease of 2.04 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [2] Investment and Future Outlook - The company announced an investment of 356 million yuan for a new aluminum foil project, expected to generate an average annual net profit of 37.5 million yuan, translating to a unit net profit of 1,500 yuan per ton [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 28.347 billion, 29.553 billion, and 29.927 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 1.832 billion, 2.313 billion, and 2.555 billion yuan, indicating significant growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.14%, reaching 26.00 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 58.483 billion CNY as of November 3 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. is located in Yongcheng, Henan Province, and was established on August 31, 1998, with its listing date on August 31, 1999 [1] - The company's main business includes the production, processing, and sales of aluminum products and coal, with the revenue composition being: electrolytic aluminum 69.40%, coal 14.11%, aluminum foil 6.41%, aluminum foil raw materials 4.44%, trading 3.82%, other businesses 1.73%, transportation 0.05%, anode carbon blocks 0.03%, and coking coal 0.03% [1] Group 2: Fund Holdings - Guotai Haitong Asset Management has a fund that heavily invests in Shenhuo Co., Ltd., specifically the Guotai Haitong Vision Value Mixed Fund A (017935), which held 319,300 shares, accounting for 5.07% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 405,500 CNY as of the report date [2] Group 3: Fund Performance - The Guotai Haitong Vision Value Mixed Fund A was established on March 1, 2023, with a current scale of 77.7945 million CNY [2] - Year-to-date, the fund has achieved a return of 13.94%, ranking 5341 out of 8223 in its category; over the past year, it has returned 17.04%, ranking 4726 out of 8115; since inception, it has returned 32.29% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shenhuo Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.14%, reaching 26.00 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.445 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.55%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 58.483 billion CNY [1] - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production, processing, and sales of aluminum products and coal, with its main business revenue composition being: electrolytic aluminum 69.40%, coal 14.11%, aluminum foil 6.41%, aluminum foil raw materials 4.44%, trading 3.82%, other businesses 1.73%, transportation 0.05%, anode carbon blocks 0.03%, and type coke 0.03% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Galaxy Fund has a significant position in Shenhuo Co., Ltd. The Galaxy Value Growth Mixed A Fund (016340) increased its holdings by 17,000 shares in the third quarter, bringing the total to 119,100 shares, which accounts for 4.39% of the fund's net value, ranking it as the tenth largest holding [2] - The Galaxy Value Growth Mixed A Fund (016340) has achieved a year-to-date return of 59.5%, ranking 530 out of 8,223 in its category, and a one-year return of 53.67%, ranking 737 out of 8,115 [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the over - increase, there may be a correction. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions when the price rises to a high level in November and maintain the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [1][79]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, the overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market was a high - opening after the holiday, followed by a decline and then a gradual strengthening. After the double - festivals, the external precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well, and aluminum followed the upward trend. However, due to a series of events such as China's export control on rare earths, anti - monopoly investigations, and tariff announcements, the aluminum price fluctuated. Later, with positive factors like the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan summary, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the aluminum price gradually strengthened [5][6]. 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: The Federal Reserve has had a series of interest rate decisions including rate cuts and rate holds in 2024 - 2025, and an expected rate cut in December 2025. The European Central Bank has also adjusted its interest rates, with multiple rate cuts and rate holds. A series of macro - economic data such as the US federal funds rate, PCE price index, and euro - zone HICP are presented [12][14]. - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: Domestic GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, CPI, PPI, and other data are shown. In September, China's exports and imports increased significantly year - on - year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a series of consensus, and the external tariff environment is temporarily stable. It is expected that exports will strengthen month - on - month in November [19][25]. 3. Aluminum Raw Materials - **Domestic Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, combined with the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Although the price of domestic bauxite is firm, it will face pressure with the increase in imported bauxite after the end of the rainy season in Guinea [28]. - **Imported Bauxite**: In September 2025, the import volume of bauxite decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to increase, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to decline [31]. 4. Alumina - At the end of October, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged month - on - month, while the operating capacity decreased. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina declined. Newly - put - into - production capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, but some small - scale and high - cost alumina enterprises in inland areas are facing losses and production cuts. In November, alumina is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and one can try to go long lightly near 2700 or sell out - of - the - money put options [34]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Production Capacity**: As of the end of October, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged month - on - month, and the operating capacity decreased slightly. The decrease was mainly due to the technical transformation of some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy. The remaining new production capacity expected to be put into operation this year is 110,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly in November, but the new production capacity is very limited [38]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of primary aluminum increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Russia and Indonesia are the main suppliers. In October, the loss of aluminum imports widened. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In October, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 14,980 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in alumina prices [43]. 6. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - **Automobile**: In September, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export of automobiles reached a new high. With the implementation of the 69 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for consumer goods replacement and the peak season of automobile production and sales, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow [51]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and other indicators declined year - on - year. Although some cities have introduced real - estate relaxation policies, the market is still weak, and this weak trend is expected to continue in November [55]. - **Infrastructure**: In September, the issuance of new local bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first nine months was relatively fast, which is expected to drive infrastructure investment. However, the high proportion of special bonds used for debt repayment will have a squeezing effect on infrastructure investment. Although the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down recently, power grid investment has increased significantly, and the future demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic [58]. - **Home Appliances**: In September, the production and sales of home appliances were stable, and the export performance was stronger than the seasonal average. However, the production schedule of the three major white - goods in November decreased month - on - month, and the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to decrease [61]. - **Photovoltaic**: In September, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices and the start of some centralized photovoltaic projects, the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to improve at a low level in November [66]. - **Aluminum Products Export**: In September, the export of aluminum products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of aluminum products also decreased. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the net export of aluminum products is expected to decline month - on - month [69]. 7. Inventory - The inventory depletion in October was satisfactory [70].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The current market is transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull," indicating a favorable time to invest in cyclical sectors [6][10] - The third quarter of 2025 shows a recovery in profitability, with A-share cumulative profit growth expected to reach 11% in 2026, marking a shift to an earnings-driven bull market [14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a need for GDP growth of at least 4.1% annually, indicating a supportive environment for cyclical industries [7] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The computer industry experienced a revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit rising by 47.77% [19] - The materials and manufacturing sectors showed a significant improvement in free cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 1,100 million yuan in the third quarter [16] - The TMT sector's capital expenditure (CAPEX) expansion is impacting cash flow, with a notable decrease in free cash flow by 928 million yuan in the third quarter [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Huada Jiutian reported a revenue of 8.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced government subsidies [46][47] - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 41.60 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 18.51%, driven by a stable CDMO business [50][51] - New Dairy's revenue for the first three quarters reached 84.34 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 31.48%, indicating strong operational performance [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - environment is favorable, with positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and continuous efforts of domestic stable - growth policies. However, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season. The aluminum price's ability to break through above 21,500 yuan/ton remains to be seen, and the overall trend is expected to be strong with fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a small - position long position and wait for the price to rise, and spot enterprises can appropriately increase inventory [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The macro - environment is strong, and domestic main funds are bullish. But as the demand side enters the off - season, the aluminum price's upward momentum above 21,500 yuan/ton needs further observation, and it should be treated as strong with fluctuations [4][11]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to hold a small - position long position. This week, it is recommended that spot enterprises appropriately increase inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall View Supply - **Bauxite**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea has weakened, and ore shipments are increasing. There are expectations of local mine复产, so imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will have long - term constraints on domestic ore, and supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Alumina**: As of October 31, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 97.2 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 85.80%. The cost is lower than in the first half of the year, and the industry is still profitable. Alumina production capacity will drive continuous output growth, and the surplus will continue to expand [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but is unlikely to increase significantly [9]. Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.5%. Construction profiles are still sluggish, and the industry is expected to enter the off - season in November [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 66.4%. As November enters the off - season, the operating rate will decline. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable at 71.9%, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The weekly operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1 percentage point to 63.4%. It is expected to remain in a narrow - range fluctuation [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59.2%, and is expected to gradually approach the annual high. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 59.1%, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [10]. Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, remaining stable compared to last week, about 4% higher than the same period last year. It is expected to accumulate inventory again. The inventory of aluminum rods was 131,500 tons, a decrease of about 6% from last week and about 23% higher than last year [10]. - **LME Aluminum**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 18% from last week, about 24% lower than last year, and is still at a low level in recent years [10]. Profit - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 0 yuan/ton, down from about 20 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,100 yuan/ton, up from 4,000 yuan/ton last week [11]. Market Expectation - The aluminum price is supported at 20,800 yuan/ton and faces pressure at 21,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the fundamentals have limited impact on the aluminum price, but the macro - sentiment at home and abroad is still relatively optimistic [11]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased moderately. The price of domestic ore remained stable, while the price of imported Guinea ore decreased. The price of alumina continued to decline, and the cost support may increase after the dry season in the southwest region [12]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, while the inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in some areas increased. The LME aluminum inventory increased significantly but is still at a low level [14][16]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.2%. Affected by multiple factors such as high aluminum prices, environmental protection restrictions, and seasonal changes, the operating rate is expected to decline slowly or fluctuate narrowly [24]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The overall market is still considered strong [39]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract first decreased and then increased, reaching a recent high. The main funds are bullish [42].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, opening at $2888 per ton and currently at $2892.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.29% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2899 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2880.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On October 31, LME aluminum futures opened at $2865.0, peaked at $2890.5, and closed at $2886.0, reflecting a change of 0.77% [2] - As of October 31, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 64,393 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 506,950 tons, with canceled receipts at 51,100 tons, a reduction of 3,750 tons, and total aluminum inventory increased by 98,525 tons to 558,050 tons [2]

Group 1 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610.HK) experienced a significant decline of over 6% in early trading, with a current drop of 6.74% to HKD 40.68 [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 26.5059 million [1]