Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has successfully achieved its goal of returning to a revenue scale of over 10 billion yuan, with a reported revenue of 10.622 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 49.30% and a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [1][3][4] Revenue Recovery - After four consecutive years of revenue decline, Three Squirrels has returned to the 10 billion yuan revenue scale, having previously been the first snack company to reach this milestone in 2019 [2][3] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion yuan within three years, as stated by the founder [2] Business Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across various product categories, with nuts contributing 5.366 billion yuan, up 40.76%, and baked goods generating 1.501 billion yuan, growing at 38.26% [3] - The main brand's revenue increased by 50.57% to 9.825 billion yuan, while the children's snack brand, Little Deer Blue, achieved 794 million yuan in revenue, a 35.01% increase [3] Channel Optimization - The revenue from third-party e-commerce platforms accounted for 69.73% of total revenue, reaching 7.407 billion yuan, while offline distribution grew over 80% to 2.641 billion yuan [4] - The company opened 333 offline stores, with 296 of them being national snack stores contributing 346 million yuan in revenue [4] Strategic Focus - Three Squirrels has adopted a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, which has helped the company recover from previous downturns [5][6] - The company has increased its self-produced ratio from 35% in 2022 to 62% in 2024, enhancing its gross margin to 24.25% [6] Global Expansion Plans - To accelerate its global expansion, Three Squirrels plans to issue H-shares and apply for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its global brand recognition and supply chain [7] - The company has begun to realize overseas sales, amounting to 696,800 yuan, which represents 0.01% of total revenue [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of the food and beverage index showed a 0.4% increase from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+2.9%), dairy products (+2.1%), and beer (+2.0%) [4][11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant performance differentiation among companies, with several reporting improved earnings. For instance, Shuanghui Development experienced comprehensive profit improvement, while Tianwei Foods exceeded previous profit forecasts due to strong demand and reduced raw material costs [4][11] - The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 suggests that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with expectations of gradual performance recovery in subsequent quarters. It is recommended to increase allocations in the liquor, beer, and snack sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market with a 0.4% increase, ranking third among industries. Key performers included Miaokelando, Guangming Meat, and Jiahe Foods, while Maikui'er, Lianhua Holdings, and Xiwang Foods faced declines [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For example, the price of fresh milk was 3.1 yuan/kg, down 12.5% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 20.9 yuan/kg [18][21] - The price of imported barley fell by 10.4% year-on-year, which may alleviate cost pressures for beer companies [27][28] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods, with each showing strong growth potential and strategic advantages in their respective markets [5][49]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a stable configuration value for the liquor sector, indicating a defensive characteristic despite being in a bottoming phase [1][11]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downtrend in market sentiment, similar to the period from late 2014 to 2015, with a slight decline in overall sales due to weak demand [1][10]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by approximately 50 yuan week-on-week, with the original box price falling below 2200 yuan, indicating a soft demand in the off-season [1][10]. - The report anticipates that the price of Feitian Moutai will fluctuate between 2100 and 2200 yuan before the upcoming peak seasons of Mid-Autumn and National Day, while monitoring the recovery of business demand [1][11]. - Despite the price drop, market sentiment towards the liquor sector remains stable, with expectations for a smooth performance in Q1 2025 for most liquor companies [1][11]. - The report highlights potential offensive opportunities in the liquor sector due to ongoing policy implementations that may bolster economic recovery expectations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is in a downtrend but shows signs of stabilization, with a focus on high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from resilient consumer demand [2][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end liquor with solid pricing and market positioning, as well as cyclical stocks with potential for growth [2][11]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with an upward turning point in market sentiment. The report expresses optimism for improved performance in 2025, particularly for companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [3][12]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive due to the release of new channels and product categories, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi expected to perform well [3][13]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at a low point, with strong growth in customized meal preparation services benefiting from the trend towards standardized dishes in chain restaurants [3][4][13].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.30% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 408 million yuan, an increase of 85.51% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 319 million yuan, up 214.33% [1] - A cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) is proposed for all shareholders [1] Product Strategy - The company is accelerating the launch of snack products to build a "full-category" product matrix under the "high-end cost performance" strategy, with over 1,000 new SKUs launched in 2024 [2] - The core category of nuts generated revenue of 5.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.76%, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue [2] - The company is expanding its multi-brand matrix, with the infant food brand "Little Deer Blue" achieving revenue of 794 million yuan, representing 7.48% of total revenue [2] Sales Channels - Online channels continue to show strong performance, with revenue of 7.407 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 49.60%, accounting for 69.73% of total revenue [3] - The Douyin channel contributed 2.188 billion yuan, growing 81.73% year-on-year, while Tmall and JD contributed 1.937 billion yuan and 1.340 billion yuan, growing 11.45% and 11.95% respectively [3] - Offline distribution is officially ramping up, with offline channel revenue reaching 3.215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.62%, accounting for 30.27% of total revenue [3] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 24.25%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, driven by scale effects and improved supply chain efficiency [4] - The net profit margin improved to 3.84%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant enhancement in profitability [4] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 537 million yuan, 747 million yuan, and 972 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.34, 1.86, and 2.42 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 49.30%, and a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [1] Group 1: Online Sales Dependency - In 2024, online sales accounted for 69.73% of total revenue, with 7.407 billion yuan generated from third-party e-commerce platforms, indicating a high reliance on online channels [4] - The company faces risks due to the declining traffic benefits of e-commerce platforms, changes in platform policies, increased competition, and rising customer acquisition costs [4] Group 2: Offline Channel Development - The company has opened a total of 333 offline stores by the end of 2024, with 296 being snack stores, generating 404 million yuan in revenue, which is approximately 3.8% of total revenue [5] - Offline distribution business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.641 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 80%, but the overall offline channel still lacks sufficient resilience against online fluctuations [5] Group 3: Product Category Strengths and Challenges - Nuts remain the core product category, with strong growth in 2024, featuring over 20 billion-level single products, and several products ranking top in their categories on major platforms [6] - The company launched over 1,000 new SKUs in the snack market, but faces intense competition from brands like Good Products and Baicaowei, indicating a need for improved product differentiation and market segmentation [7] Group 4: Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company has made progress in global raw material sourcing and supply chain efficiency through a "one product, one chain" strategy, establishing centralized supply bases and factories [8] - Despite improvements, the company still faces cost pressures from raw material price fluctuations and rising logistics costs, with a gross profit margin of 24.25% in 2024, which is an improvement from 2023 but lower than 29.38% in 2021 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global brand recognition and supply chain capabilities, following a trend of A-share companies seeking overseas listings [1][4]. Company Overview - Three Squirrels was founded on February 16, 2012, and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board on July 12, 2019. It is a manufacturer and retailer in the snack industry, specializing in a full range of self-owned brands, with nuts as its core product [4]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 407.74 million yuan, showing an 85.51% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 319.32 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 214.33% year-on-year [5]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 601.74 million yuan, up 80.08% from the previous year [5]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 1.02 yuan, an increase of 85.45% compared to the previous year [5]. Market Position - As of March 27, the stock price of Three Squirrels was 28.69 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 11.505 billion yuan [6]. - The company has seen a stock price increase of 1.81% on that day [6]. - The total assets of the company at the end of 2024 were 6.767 billion yuan, a 22.07% increase from the previous year [5].

Investment Opportunities - "Tang San Liang Da Jiu Pu" has completed nearly 10 million yuan in angel round financing, focusing on a new style of liquor chain with over 120 SKUs and more than 30 stores nationwide [2] - "LynxAI" has secured several million yuan in angel round financing, providing Agentic AI solutions for cross-border e-commerce [3] - "Xi Wei Ying Shui Jiao Sha Guo Cai" has completed Series A financing led by Source Code Capital, specializing in traditional dumplings and casserole dishes [4] - "Ge Wu Technology" has completed several million yuan in Pre-A round financing, focusing on AI smart hardware and is part of the Xiaomi ecosystem [5][6] - "Yunnan Smart Cultural Tourism" has completed several million yuan in Pre-A round financing, offering digital-driven smart tourism solutions [7] Company Developments - "Nai Xue's Tea" has opened its first light drink and light food store, with a focus on health and a projected revenue of 4.8 to 5.1 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease from the previous year [9] - "Hao Xiang Lai" has surpassed 15,000 stores, with its snack brand reaching over 10,000 stores, and the group reporting a revenue increase of nearly 16 times in 2023 [10] - "Cha Xiao Kai" has achieved over 200 million yuan in sales in 2024, marking a 2.5 times growth from the previous year, while planning to diversify its product offerings beyond sugar-free tea [12][14] Market Trends - In February 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices down by 3.3% and non-food prices down by 0.1% [20] - Bilibili users exhibit a willingness to spend on interests and emotional needs, averaging seven hobbies per person, influencing their consumption behavior [22][23]

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [10]. Core Views - The company has signed over 15,000 stores, indicating a sustained momentum in store openings and a strong long-term growth outlook [3][4]. - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond snacks to include daily necessities and other categories, enhancing its market presence [4]. - The launch of discount supermarkets is expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth potential, leveraging its strong supply chain and logistics capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.949 billion, 51.272 billion, and 60.712 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 243.77%, 60.48%, and 18.41% [5]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 268 million, 519 million, and 705 million RMB, with growth rates of 422.60%, 94.11%, and 35.85% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.49, 2.89, and 3.92 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. Market Position - The company has established a strong brand recognition with over 10,000 stores, which is expected to enhance customer traffic [3]. - The new store formats are designed to meet community needs, offering a wider range of products at competitive prices compared to traditional retail formats [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese snack industry, highlighting a "golden period" characterized by simultaneous growth in volume and price, driven by health, scenario-based consumption, and digitalization [2][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese snack industry is experiencing a "volume and price increase" phase, with a steady market growth trajectory. The market size is projected to reach 1.4 trillion RMB by 2024, recovering from a growth rate slump during 2020-2022, which saw a mere 0.8% increase in 2022 [2][6]. - The current market structure is layered into three segments: foundational categories supporting the market, emerging categories breaking through, and long-tail categories gaining momentum. Traditional giants are urged to seek high-end upgrades, while new entrants should focus on health transformation [9][12]. - The market is characterized by a "strong head, weak long tail" dynamic in 2023, necessitating traditional categories to innovate through scenarios to extend their lifecycle, while health-focused niches present structural opportunities [2][9]. - Offline channels dominate the snack distribution landscape, with hypermarkets accounting for over 40% of the market share, supermarkets around 24%, and e-commerce channels approximately 20%, which is gradually declining [2][26]. Summary by Sections Current Status of the Snack Industry - The snack industry is undergoing a channel transformation that is generating new growth opportunities. The rise of hypermarkets is particularly noteworthy, as they leverage high turnover efficiency to offer competitive pricing [6][34]. Channel Transformation - The report outlines a significant shift in the snack sales channels over the years, evolving from traditional distribution networks to large chain stores, and now to hypermarket sales models. This transformation is expected to continue, with hypermarkets projected to reach a market size of 1,040 billion RMB by 2024 [25][26]. Analysis of Representative Companies - **Mingming Hen Mang**: Following a merger, the brand's sales are expected to surge from 23.865 billion RMB in 2023 to 55.5 billion RMB in 2024, marking a growth of over 130%. The company serves approximately 5.9 million consumers daily [2][56]. - **China Wangwang**: The company faces challenges with its core product, Wangzai Milk, which accounts for 90% of its revenue in the dairy segment. The revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to decline by 1.6% year-on-year [2][60]. - **Three Squirrels**: The company has seen a decline in revenue from 9.79 billion RMB in 2020 to 7.12 billion RMB in 2023, primarily due to the fading e-commerce boom and high costs of offline expansion. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024 with a projected revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion RMB, driven by a strategy focused on high-end value and omnichannel sales [2][64].