行情上，上周五三大指数再度全线收红，沪指迎8连阳，做多情绪超预期升温。量能中枢修复到2万亿， 在宏观不确定性落地后，3800点有资金面的保护信号，上周市场对人民币汇率破7和宽基的冲量流入都 给了正面反馈。周末消息偏中性，国内全国财政工作会议指出扩大财政支出盘子，产业上还是聚焦在商 业航天和机器人上。结构上，上周除了商业航天超预期强势外，多数板块尤其是前期低位科技题材都有 机会。操作上，保持好仓位，跟随趋势，大概率节后可能有震荡低吸机会。观点仅供参考，投资有风 险，入市需谨慎。 机构观点方面，申万宏源认为，短期A股连续上涨，体现出流动性驱动的特征。部分投资者预期中证 A500ETF年底冲量，年初可能有所反复，市场可能随之反复。但我们认为春季行情有利条件不变：首 先，股市流动性宽松：私募逢低有集中申购，保险开门红，人民币汇率升值利好股市流动性；其次，支 撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续，2月春节、3月两会、4月特朗普可能访华。2026年风格节奏判断：春季科 技和顺周期只有Alpha机会，主题活跃，对应小盘成长占优。后续，2026年二季度磨底阶段，科技和先 进制造有基本面Alpha逻辑方向可能先于牛市启动。2026年下半年 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 大市成交金额 925 亿元，主板总卖空金额约 129 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交 金额约 15.83%。南向资金流（北水）方面，12 月 24 日净流出约 12 亿元。港 股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是中芯国际 981.HK、农业银行 1288.HK、华虹半导体 1347.HK；净卖出最多的是中国移动 941.HK、腾讯控 股 700.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK。 板块方面，半导体股成为当日亮点，领涨大市。受惠于全球 AI 算力需求的持 续释放以及国产替代逻辑的深化，资金对芯片制造与设计环节展现出浓厚兴趣， 半导体龙头股均录得不错涨幅。相比之下，大型科网股走势分化，板块整体缺 乏统一方向。周期与能源板块内部亦出现明显分歧。电力股受益于冬季用电高 峰预期及政策支持，走势强劲；而煤炭股则普遍承压下行。原材料领域，锂电 池产业链延续弱势，但有色金属板块受大宗商品价格反弹及供应端约束提振， 铝业与铜金矿企多数上扬。总体而言，年末港股受假期流动性影响，交投相对 清淡，主要呈现科技成长与周期资源交替活跃的特征。虽然短期面临全球宏观 波动的不确定性，但港股当前估 ...

12月28日，王府井发布公告称，2025年12月26日公司收到《中标通知书》，确定为北京首都国际机场免 税项目（中标标段：02标段，T2航站楼）中标人，首年保底经营费11300万元、首年销售额提成比例 5%，自合同约定的起始日起至2034年2月10日止。如签订正式合同并实施，将实现公司在国内超大型国 际枢纽机场首次布局，提升免税业务规模及市场份额。 | 图源于公司公告 | | --- | 此前，中国中免也拿下了上海机场免税项目的经营权。根据中国中免发布的公告，确认中免集团为上海 浦东国际机场（T2航站楼）和上海虹桥国际机场（T1航站楼）相关免税店项目的中标人。 不仅如此，杜福睿（上海）商业有限公司、王府井集团股份有限公司也分别中标上海浦东国际机场 （T1航站楼及S1卫星厅国际区域场地）、首都机场02标段（T2航站楼）免税项目。这意味着，此次招 标结束后，京沪机场免税店全面"换血"，日上免税正式退出京沪枢纽。 日上免税的离场，也并非其商业竞争的失败。深究日上免税出局的原因，据《国际金融报》报道，12月 6日下午，日上免税行（上海）有限公司（以下简称"日上上海"）董事长突然召开董事会，围绕公司是 否参加上海机场免 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of Hainan's customs closure and the winter sports season on service consumption, predicting a robust demand for hospitality and travel services in 2026. Notably, Hainan's first week of duty-free shopping post-closure saw sales of 1.1 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 54.9% [4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic ski and ice tourism ticket bookings, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 70% from November 2025 to February 2026 [4]. - Key investment targets include hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resources services, the duty-free sector, and internet platforms that integrate online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion RMB and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion RMB [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 1.05% in the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, while the overall A-share market rose by 2.77% [7][10]. - The report notes that the hospitality sector, including hotels, saw varied performance, with some companies like Green Tea Group and Dingdong Maicai showing significant gains [16][19]. Important Announcements - Key announcements from companies in the consumer services sector include share buybacks and financial updates, such as Guilin Tourism's court ruling to recover illegal profits of 52.15 million RMB [31][30]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the upcoming month, including Nanjing Commercial Travel and Changbai Mountain [34].

Group 1 - The article highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace ETFs are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus on sectors such as chemicals and engineering machinery indicates a shift in China's manufacturing competitiveness towards pricing power, while sectors related to anti-involution, like new energy and steel, are also showing signs of recovery [2] - The investment strategy suggests a preference for sectors with low heat and concentration but potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy, alongside a keen observation of the trend of RMB appreciation [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the favorable conditions for the spring market rally, emphasizing liquidity-driven characteristics in the A-share market, with expectations for a surge in the CSI A500 ETF towards year-end [3] - It notes that the spring market is supported by loose liquidity, with private equity making concentrated purchases and the RMB's appreciation benefiting market liquidity [3] - The potential for a spring rally is further supported by upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, which may enhance risk appetite [3] Group 3 - The article indicates that the RMB's appreciation post "breaking 7" is expected to have a positive impact on both the currency and capital markets, with a potential for a spring rally [4][5] - It outlines four key logic points regarding the impact of RMB appreciation on industry allocation, including benefits for industries with high import reliance, those with significant foreign currency liabilities, and domestic demand-driven sectors [5] - The article suggests that the current market conditions do not show clear signs of a bull market peak, with internal policies remaining supportive and external risks easing [6] Group 4 - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and real industry chains, highlighting the increasing consumption of physical goods in manufacturing sectors and the strengthening of China's manufacturing advantages [7] - It recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing recovery [7] - The article emphasizes the importance of capital market expansion and the potential for non-bank financial sectors to benefit from improving asset returns [7] Group 5 - The article states that the A-share market's cross-year rally has begun, driven by positive signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and optimistic institutional investor expectations [8] - It highlights the importance of sectors like non-ferrous metals and AI computing, with commercial aerospace being a primary market focus [8] - The article suggests that the spring market may see a structural and rapid rotation of sectors, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [12]

本文源自：智通财经网 上述项目签约后，公司于国内核心机场的渠道优势将进一步提升，有利于满足出入境旅客多层次、多样 化的购物需求，提升多元化免税购物体验，进而推动机场免税业务高质量发展。如上述项目顺利实施， 将对公司未来经营业绩发展产生积极影响。 智通财经获悉，中国中免(01880)高开近7%，截至发稿，涨6.78%，报81.1港元，成交额974.82万港元。 消息面上，中国中免发布公告，2025年12月26日，公司收到中招国际招标有限公司发来的《中标通知 书》，确认公司全资子公司中国免税品(集团)有限责任公司为北京首都国际机场免税项目01标段的中标 人。中标金额：首年保底经营费人民币4.8亿元，首年销售额提成比例5%。经营期限：自合同约定的起 始日起至2034年2月10日止(不超过8年)。 ...

来源：兴证策略张启尧团队 引言：近期人民币加速走强，新一轮人民币升值周期启动愈发成为市场共识。为何近期人民币升值加速？后续人民币升值还有哪些支撑，如何影响市场？ 历史上的人民币升值周期，A股与港股如何表现？如何把握新一轮人民币升值周期的配置机会？详见报告： 一、为何近期人民币升值加速？ 近期人民币加速升值引发市场关注。我们认为，背后主要反映的是美元再度走弱叠加年末"结汇潮"带动下，人民币相对其他非美货币的"补涨"，与市场对 人民币升值的一致预期形成共振。 首先，随着11月下旬市场美联储降息预期下修到位、未来宽松指引逐渐明朗，美元再度走弱带动人民币加速升值。10月美国政府停摆对于TGA账户的"抽 水"、叠加数据空窗期下美联储降息表态趋于谨慎，曾一度引发市场流动性预期收紧，进而带动美元指数持续走强，成为当时美元兑人民币汇率继续下行 的掣肘。而11月下旬以来，随着美国政府"开门"后流动性释放、12月美联储降息并开启技术性扩表，显著改善此前偏紧的流动性环境，叠加关键数据验证 以及特朗普对于"影子主席"的表态进一步为后续宽松打开想象空间，美元指数见顶回落、快速下行破98，是近期人民币加速升值的重要推动。 二、后续人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (China National Duty Free) has won a bid for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, which is expected to enhance its market position and drive future revenue growth [1] Group 1: Bid Announcement - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, China Duty Free (Group) Co., Ltd., has been confirmed as the winning bidder for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport [1] - The bid amount includes a guaranteed operating fee of RMB 480 million for the first year, with a sales commission rate of 5% for the first year [1] - The contract duration is set from the start date until February 10, 2034, not exceeding 8 years [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The signing of this project is expected to enhance the company's channel advantages in key domestic airports [1] - It aims to meet the diverse shopping needs of inbound and outbound travelers, thereby improving the multi-faceted duty-free shopping experience [1] - Successful implementation of the project is anticipated to have a positive impact on the company's future operating performance [1]

因圣诞假期休市2天半的港股今日高开，恒指涨0.43%，国指涨0.59%，恒生科技指数涨0.88%。大型科 技股多数上涨，铜再创历史新高，铜业股领衔有色金属股上涨，其中江西铜业股份大涨10%，半导体芯 片股强势，上海复旦大涨12.9%领衔，机器人概念股、免税概念股、锂电池股齐涨，其中免税龙头中国 中免涨近7%。另外，食品饮料股、物管股走低。(格隆汇) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in sales at Sanya's duty-free shops following the closure of Hainan Island, with a year-on-year increase of 50.3% in the first week and daily sales exceeding 100 million yuan for five consecutive days [1] - On the first day of the closure, Sanya International Duty-Free City saw over 36,000 visitors, a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and sales surged by 85% compared to the previous year [1] - The range of "zero tariff" products will expand from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, covering about 74% of all product categories, which is an increase of nearly 53 percentage points compared to before the closure [1] Group 2 - Hainan's airport is actively expanding international flight routes, with the number of overseas routes expected to reach 90 by 2025, and international passenger throughput projected to hit 2.4 million [2] - The continuous influx of tourists supports the demand for duty-free shopping, creating a positive interaction between tourism and duty-free consumption [2] - Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that Hainan's offshore duty-free sales will exceed 120 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% [2] - The closure of Hainan Free Trade Port marks a new stage of high-level opening, creating structural opportunities in the A-share market, particularly in the duty-free, aviation, and tourism hotel sectors [2]