中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，本月SW社服行业涨跌幅为+5.13%，其中，专业服务(+7.5%)，旅 游及景区(+6.6%)，教育(+3.7%)，酒店餐饮(-0.6%)。海南自由贸易港将于2025年12月18日正式封关，政 策红利持续释放：岛内"零关税"商品税目比例从21%提升至74%，加工增值30%可免关税销往内地，预 计将显著提升离岛免税客群基数。同时澳门博彩7月毛收入221亿澳门元(同比+19%)，非博彩转型成效 显现，叠加中东免签政策利好，下半年行业高景气有望延续。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 行业重要动态及新闻 受益于4月起外卖平台大规模补贴活动对需求的强刺激，现制饮品行业公司Q2业绩大幅提升，超越市场 预期，瑞幸2Q实现营收124亿元/同比+37%/增速环比+5.9pct，直营店同店销售额同比+13.4%/增速环比 +5.3%。展望Q3，7月末起平台间"0元购"、"免单券"等内卷式大额补贴虽逐渐消退，但补贴仍保持常态 化发放运营，同时Q3因天气因素为现制饮品消费旺季，因此整体Q3预期仍较为乐观。 国内AI+教育、人力资源产品商业化持续推进，下半年大模型技术有望进一步推动相关AI应用迭代发 ...

格隆汇8月5日丨珠免集团(600185.SH)在互动平台表示，目前珠海免税未在海南经营口岸免税业务。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive impact of recent policies such as the Hainan Free Trade Port closure and the central childcare subsidy, which are expected to drive growth for companies that capitalize on these opportunities [1] - The duty-free environment is stabilizing, with a noted decline in duty-free shopping amounts and visitor numbers, but an increase in average spending per customer [2] - Companies in the overseas market are facing challenges due to rising costs and changing demand, but some are expected to maintain high growth through channel expansion and cost control [3] - Retail chains are undergoing significant adjustments, with many reporting improved sales and profitability following store modifications [4] - The overall retail sector remains stable, with some companies showing positive trends and continued investment in new business models and digitalization [10] Summary by Sections Trade and Retail - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start on December 18, 2025, with detailed policies on tax exemptions and regulations [1] - The central government has introduced a childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting January 1, 2025, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [1] Duty-Free Environment - Duty-free shopping in the first half of 2025 saw a total of 16.761 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.2%, with visitor numbers down by 26.2% [2] - China Duty-Free Group reported a revenue of 11.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year [2] Overseas Market - Companies exporting to the U.S. are expected to face challenges due to increased costs and demand fluctuations, but some, like Xiaogoods City and Anker Innovation, are projected to maintain high growth [3] Retail Chains - Retail chains like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store are seeing positive results from store adjustments, with significant increases in customer traffic and sales [4] Overall Industry Outlook - The retail sector's fundamentals remain stable, with a focus on new consumption trends and digital transformation, highlighting companies such as Gu Ming and Bubble Mart as key players [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Provincial Government has issued a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to accelerate the establishment of a modern industrial system with distinctive advantages and features [1] Group 1: Policy Optimization - The plan aims to optimize the duty-free policy for offshore islands and expand the list of goods available for "immediate purchase and pickup" [1] - The initiative includes enhancing the "Study in Hainan" brand to attract high-quality international educational resources [1] Group 2: Healthcare and Medical Tourism - The government plans to accelerate the return of overseas medical consumption and promote the application of real-world clinical data [1] - The target is to have 2-4 real-world research pilot products approved for domestic market each year [1] - The goal is to introduce no less than 40 international innovative drugs and medical devices annually, with medical tourism expected to exceed 1.5 million visitors by 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The State Council held a meeting on July 31, 2025, to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies, aimed at reducing credit costs for residents and financing costs for service industry entities, thereby stimulating consumption potential and enhancing market vitality [1] Group 1: Beneficiary Analysis - The "policy intensity - industry elasticity - valuation safety margin" three-dimensional model was constructed to identify beneficiaries, leading to three main beneficiary lines [2] - Key beneficiaries in the consumer finance infrastructure layer include: - China Merchants Bank (招商银行) with over 20% market share in consumer loans, expected to see growth in its consumer loan business due to the subsidy policy [2] - BYD (比亚迪) benefiting from reduced car purchase costs through auto loan subsidies, likely to boost sales in the electric vehicle sector [2] - Hengsheng Electronics (恒生电子) anticipated to receive numerous orders for bank subsidy system upgrades due to increased demand [2] - Tongqinglou (同庆楼), a regional restaurant leader, expected to expand operations and improve service quality due to reduced financing costs [2] - Ningbo Bank (宁波银行), which has the highest proportion of small and micro loans in the industry, will see new growth opportunities from the subsidy policy [2] Group 2: Consumption Recovery and Upgrade - Beneficiaries in the consumption recovery layer include: - Wuliangye (五粮液), a high-end liquor brand, expected to benefit from the recovery of high-end consumption in banquet scenarios [3] - Songcheng Performance (宋城演艺), a leader in the cultural tourism sector, likely to attract more visitors and enhance performance due to tourism subsidies [3] - Yili (伊利股份), a dairy industry leader, expected to benefit from the upgrade in dairy consumption and cost reductions [3] - Midea Group (美的集团), anticipated to see increased demand for home appliances due to the combination of old-for-new policies and interest subsidies [3] - Haitian Flavoring (海天味业), expected to experience growth in demand for condiments as the restaurant industry recovers [3] - Yanghe (洋河股份), benefiting from the recovery of banquet consumption in the mid-range liquor segment [3] Group 3: Long-term Value and Innovation - Beneficiaries in the consumption upgrade empowerment layer include: - Heng Rui Medicine (恒瑞医药), expected to see growth in innovative drugs and medical consumption due to increased resident spending [5] - Aier Eye Hospital (爱尔眼科), benefiting from rising demand for refractive surgery as consumer spending on eye health increases [5] - Haier Smart Home (海尔智家), anticipated to see growth in high-end smart home product sales due to interest subsidies [5] - China Duty Free Group (中国中免), expected to benefit from the recovery of inbound tourism and support for duty-free consumption [5] - Gree Electric (格力电器), likely to see increased demand for home appliances due to favorable policies and channel reforms [5] Group 4: Economic Impact - The "double interest subsidy" policy is distinct from traditional infrastructure stimulus, as it aims to precisely activate consumer demand to drive economic circulation, demonstrating stronger targeting and effectiveness [7]

Group 1 - The stock price of China Duty Free Group (中国中免) on July 30 was 66.28 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.05 yuan, representing a 0.08% rise. The trading volume reached 267,870 hands, with a transaction amount of 1.78 billion yuan [1] - China Duty Free Group is a leading duty-free operator in China, primarily engaged in the retail of duty-free goods. The company operates duty-free stores in key cities and tourist destinations across the country, covering various categories such as cosmetics, luxury goods, clothing, and electronics [1] - Haikou Customs has recently implemented smart supervision measures, significantly enhancing the customs clearance efficiency of offshore duty-free goods through technologies like electronic tags and remote video inspections. Data shows that the time from warehousing to shelf for duty-free goods can be as short as 2 hours, saving 1.4 days compared to traditional methods. Since 2025, Sanya Customs has inspected 329 batches of offshore duty-free imported goods, with 80% adopting facilitation policies [1] Group 2 - On July 30, the net outflow of main funds for China Duty Free Group was 16.5697 million yuan, accounting for 0.01% of the circulating market value [2]

证券日报网讯宋城演艺7月30日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司旗下三亚千古情景区与中免有 业务上的合作，包括广告置换、买演出票赠免税店代金券等形式。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that China Duty Free Group (601888) has underperformed in its Q2 and interim earnings forecast, primarily due to volatility in non-Hainan operations [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The company has experienced a decline in sales, although the rate of decline has narrowed [1] - The market share in Hainan has increased by nearly 1% year-on-year, indicating some positive movement despite overall challenges [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on accelerating its strategic transformation through the expansion of duty-free products and promoting brand innovation [1] Group 3: Profitability Concerns - Profitability remains under pressure due to factors such as deleveraging, changes in product mix, channel mix, and discounts [1] - Recent Hainan offshore duty-free policies have acted as a catalyst for stock price movements, suggesting potential profit-taking opportunities [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the earnings per share forecast for China Duty Free Group (01880) by 12% to 13% for the years 2025 to 2027 due to weakened sales momentum in online channels [1] - The target price for A-shares remains at 59 RMB, while the target price for H-shares has been raised from 46.2 HKD to 51.3 HKD, narrowing the discount between A and H shares to 20% from 30% [1] - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, amounting to 2.6 billion RMB, with a significant drop in the second quarter's net profit to 662 million RMB, down 32% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the free trade port policy in Hainan may expand market size by attracting more consumers, but it also poses a risk of increased competition as brand owners may establish their own stores [2] - The company is transitioning from being a pure duty-free operator to a platform operator that provides retail space, indicating a strategic shift in its business model [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower, with all three major indices falling over 1% during the day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.3% at 3363.9 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.19% to 13320.92 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.96% to 2587.86 points [1] - The total trading volume for both markets fell below 1 trillion yuan, reaching only 8718.2 billion yuan, with a slight net outflow of northbound funds [1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as smart TVs, consumer electronics, digital currency, electricity, paper, glyphosate, steel, and transportation equipment showed relative resilience [1] - Sectors that experienced significant declines included agriculture, artificial meat, aviation, gold, agricultural planting, biodegradable plastics, and new materials [1] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate the domestic consumption of previously overseas goods, benefiting industries like duty-free shops and hotels [2] - The recovery of domestic tourism and related sectors is anticipated as overseas travel returns to the domestic market [2] - The rise of domestic brands is expected to continue, with e-commerce and innovation driving growth in market share for domestic cosmetics, snacks, and small appliances [2] Industry Recovery Signals - The civil aviation sector is expected to see gradual improvement in domestic passenger traffic as domestic demand recovers [3] - The worst impacts of the pandemic on the industry are believed to be over, leading to a recovery in market sentiment [3] - The cement industry is also projected to recover as demand is expected to rise in the second half of the year, following earlier constraints due to the pandemic and natural disasters [3]