Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4603.44, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also experienced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2489 tons, aluminum down 8027 tons, zinc down 4552 tons, lead down 4721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights increasing concerns over the supply of battery metals, particularly nickel and cobalt, due to tightening policies in key producing countries like Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may disrupt the global electric vehicle supply chain [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nickel Supply Concerns - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, has been signaling tighter control over nickel resources since 2025, with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources indicating a potential reduction in mining quotas to protect high-grade nickel reserves [1][2]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association approved a mining quota of 298.5 million wet tons, higher than last year, but the government is reviewing this to prevent resource depletion [1][2]. - The planned increase in mining and processing costs includes raising the nickel mining tax rate from a fixed 10% to a range of 14%-19%, which could elevate operational costs for mining companies and ultimately increase nickel prices [1][2]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanisms and Market Impact - Indonesia is adjusting the calculation frequency of the metal mineral benchmark price (HPM) from monthly to twice a month to better reflect market values and capture price fluctuations, particularly during price increases [2]. - As of March 24, nickel prices in Indonesia have been rising, with a reported supply-demand gap of approximately 5,000 tons for battery-grade nickel sulfate in Q1 [2]. - The tightening supply from Indonesia is compounded by the Democratic Republic of Congo's efforts to manage global cobalt supply and prices amid its export ban [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Market Dynamics - The Philippines has also decided to halt new mining permits in key nickel-producing areas and may soon pass a bill to ban raw ore exports, aiming to develop its downstream processing industry [3]. - The increasing nationalism among resource-rich countries is driven by the desire to capitalize on the booming demand for electric vehicles, which has led to significant price volatility for lithium, cobalt, and nickel [3]. - The reliance on Indonesian MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) for cobalt supply is creating new uncertainties regarding supply stability and costs, impacting the already high cobalt prices faced by ternary material producers [4]. Group 4: Production and Technological Implications - The high raw material costs are suppressing the purchasing willingness of downstream nickel sulfate manufacturers, leading to a reduction in production rates, with China's nickel sulfate production capacity operating at less than 50% as of March [4]. - Although low-cobalt strategies may alleviate some pressure on cobalt prices, the high-nickel route is crucial for enhancing the energy density of ternary batteries, which currently account for 40-50% of the ternary materials market [4]. - The tightening nickel supply could introduce uncertainties during a critical period for cost reduction and market penetration of next-generation battery technologies [4].

Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [1] Core Views - The marginal improvement in the industry fundamentals is noted, with ongoing tariff policies causing market disruptions [1] - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to increased funding for construction sites and warmer weather, although macroeconomic factors and overseas tariffs remain concerns [1][17] - Copper supply is tight, supporting prices, while domestic inventory has slightly decreased; future demand performance will be crucial for price movements [1][37] - Aluminum prices are supported by expectations of macroeconomic easing and solar energy installations, but overseas tariffs and trade policies pose risks [1][44] - Gold prices are supported by various factors, including increasing reserves in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a focus on the progress of negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][48] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Supply has decreased, and inventory continues to decline, indicating a marginal improvement in fundamentals [17] - As of March 7, the total steel inventory was 18.58 million tons, down 0.93% from the previous period and down 24.02% year-on-year [26] - The average profit margins for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel are negative, but have shown some improvement compared to the previous period [35] Copper Industry - High copper prices are suppressing demand, with slow recovery in downstream industries [36] - As of March 7, LME copper prices were $9,700 per ton, up 3.21% from the previous period [41] - Domestic copper inventory has slightly decreased, indicating potential upward pressure on prices if demand improves [37] Aluminum Industry - As of March 7, LME aluminum prices were $2,700 per ton, reflecting a 2.10% increase from the previous period [45] - The market is cautious, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach [44] Gold Industry - As of March 7, COMEX gold prices were $2,917.70 per ounce, up 1.76% from the previous period [48] - Various geopolitical factors and central bank purchases are supporting gold prices [48] Lithium Industry - The supply of lithium is expected to increase as some lithium salt plants resume normal production [2] - Policies such as "trade-in" and charging infrastructure subsidies are anticipated to stimulate downstream demand [2] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - As of March 7, light rare earth prices showed a slight decline, while heavy rare earth prices varied [56] - Tungsten and other minor metal prices have also seen slight decreases [60]