Fundamental Analysis - The recent US inflation data showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7% in June, the highest since February, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous 2.4% [1] - The core CPI also rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but slightly higher than the previous 2.8% [1] - The market anticipates a 62% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of nearly two cuts by the end of the year [1] Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Indonesia, which will eliminate tariffs on US imports and involve Indonesia purchasing over $10 billion worth of US goods [2] - The agreement includes Indonesia committing to buy $15 billion in US energy, $4.5 billion in US agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recent peak at 3374.0 after starting from 3250.0, with a recent pullback but maintaining a higher trading focus [5] - The moving averages indicate a bullish trend for gold, suggesting a buy on dips strategy around the support level of 3320.0 [5] - Silver prices have also shown a bullish trend, with a recent high of 39.10 and a recommendation to buy on dips around 37.60 [9]

Group 1: Policy Implementation and Infrastructure Development - The "Two Heavy" (national strategic implementation and key area security capability construction) and "Two New" (large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement) policies are crucial for expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [1] - The Pinglu Canal project in Guangxi, a major national construction project, is expected to be operational by the end of 2026, significantly reducing logistics costs for the southwestern region [2] - Shanghai is focusing on key industries such as large aircraft and humanoid robots, organizing projects to accelerate progress in line with the "Two Heavy" policy [3] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Supply Optimization - The "Two New" policy aims to optimize supply, boost consumption, and enhance consumer confidence, with initiatives like the old-for-new subsidy for consumer electronics [4] - In 2024, Guangxi plans to allocate approximately 5.1 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, which is expected to directly stimulate sales of around 32.5 billion yuan [4] - The implementation of the "Two New" policy has led to significant improvements in production efficiency and order growth in companies like Nannan Aluminum [6] Group 3: Financial Support and New Business Models - Financial institutions in Guangxi are being guided to support projects focused on energy saving, carbon reduction, and industrial digital transformation [7] - Shanghai has introduced a special action plan to promote large-scale equipment updates in the industrial sector, with over 500 projects expected to receive support in 2024 [7] - The research team suggests exploring new business models and industries that align with evolving consumer demands to further stimulate domestic demand [8]

Core Point - The agreement between the United States and Indonesia marks a significant development in trade relations, providing the U.S. with comprehensive access to the Indonesian market [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - Indonesia commits to purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft, including many 777 models [1] - This agreement represents the first time U.S. ranchers, farmers, and fishermen will gain full access to the Indonesian market [1] Group 2: Tariff Structure - Indonesia will impose a 19% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., while U.S. exports to Indonesia will be exempt from all tariffs and non-tariff barriers [1] - If goods are transshipped from high-tariff countries, the corresponding tariffs from the country of origin will be added to the tariffs paid by Indonesia [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emerging as a significant hub for the large aircraft industry, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recognizing it as a national advanced manufacturing cluster by December 2024, and a cooperation framework established by June 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The YRD aims to create a world-class large aircraft industry cluster with international competitiveness, focusing on high-end sub-chains such as structural components, composite materials, aircraft engines, and onboard systems [2][3]. - The C919's commercial operation in 2023 marked China's entry into the global large aircraft industry, transitioning from a "follower" to a "runner" status, with the new agreement signaling a bold attempt to gain control over core technologies in the industry [2][3]. Group 2: Regional Advantages - The YRD has attracted over one-third of China's large aircraft supply chain suppliers, with nearly a thousand related enterprises and an industrial output exceeding 100 billion yuan [3][4]. - Shanghai serves as the leading city, housing major companies like COMAC and AVIC, along with many international suppliers' Chinese headquarters, enhancing its assembly and system integration capabilities [3][4]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The collaboration among the three provinces and one city in the YRD is essential for the large aircraft industry's development, with over 1,000 enterprises and 300,000 people involved from more than 20 provinces [5][6]. - The YRD's historical openness and collaborative culture facilitate a comprehensive economic logic that integrates various strengths to advance the industry [5][6]. Group 4: Market Potential - As of February 2025, COMAC has received nearly 1,500 orders for the C919, with confirmed orders close to 1,000, indicating strong market demand [6][7]. - The large aircraft manufacturing sector is recognized as a leading knowledge economy industry, with significant potential for growth, as China is projected to have 10,061 passenger aircraft by 2043, representing 20.6% of the global fleet [7][8].

Group 1 - The Indian Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) is set to mandate airlines to inspect the fuel switch locking mechanism of Boeing 787 fleets [1]

Group 1 - A WestJet Boeing 737 MAX 8 experienced a small exhaust pipe fire while parked at Vancouver International Airport, leading to the evacuation of dozens of passengers without any reported injuries [3] - The aircraft has been grounded for maintenance, and the incident did not affect airport operations or flight schedules [3] - The Transportation Safety Board of Canada has dispatched an investigation team to gather information and assess the situation [3] Group 2 - A Peace Airlines Boeing 737-300 flight from Lagos to Port Harcourt veered off the runway upon landing, but all passengers and crew were reported safe with no damage to the aircraft [4] - The incident occurred on the morning of July 13, and the aircraft type is known for its short to medium-range capabilities [4] Group 3 - The FAA and Boeing privately communicated that the fuel shutoff switches on Boeing aircraft are safe, despite concerns raised by a recent preliminary investigation into an Indian Airlines Boeing 787-8 crash [5] - The FAA does not consider the fuel control switch design a safety issue and has issued airworthiness directives for all Boeing models, including the 787 [5] - Boeing has informed airlines that no action is recommended following the FAA's notification [5]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 45 期） 海外市场观察：JOBY 触及百亿美金市值里 推荐（维持） 程碑，西锐再创股价新高 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 1）从商业模式理解，我们认为公司，生产端属于高端制造业，航空制造门槛 高壁垒高，24 年前三大市占率近半；销售端属于高端消费品，公司深耕私人 飞机领域，面向 C 端客户为主，产品近年来持续提价，24 年相较于 21 年，公 司 SR2X 系列售价提升了 26%，愿景喷气机提升了 24%，典型类高端消费品 属性。2）海外比较：我们观察海外上市公司中，巴航工业 Wind PEttm 23 倍， 德事隆集团 Wind PE ttm 18.5 倍，均明显高于西锐。注：我们预计公司 202 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is intensifying its tariff war, targeting allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Canada with significant tariff increases of 25% and 35% respectively, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy that disregards traditional alliances [1] - The potential for high tariffs on the EU could severely impact European companies' competitiveness, given the close trade ties between the U.S. and the EU [3] - The U.S. and EU are competitors in various sectors, including aviation, where European fighter jets pose a challenge to U.S. military aircraft [3] Group 2 - France and Germany are collaborating on the FCAS (Future Combat Air System), which is essentially a sixth-generation fighter jet project, while the European market has seen a shift towards U.S. F-35 fighter jets [5] - Germany's plan to purchase additional F-35A fighter jets may be a strategic move to align with U.S. interests amid the tariff war, potentially reducing the EU's trade surplus with the U.S. [9] - The increased investment in F-35A jets by Germany could undermine the funding for the FCAS project, raising concerns about its viability [9]

来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨黎雨桐 深夜大爆发！黄金大涨，现货白银创14年新高！美股全线跳水 多个千万人口城市，落户门槛放宽至45岁 SFC 21君荐读 印度航空事故调查局12日披露了此前印度航空波音787-8型客机坠毁事故的初步调查结果。 报告显示，飞机起飞后数秒内，两台发动机的燃油开关几乎同步从"运行"位切换至"切断"位， 导致发动机燃料供应中断而空中熄火。 报告称，"在驾驶舱语音记录中，可以听到一名飞行员向另一名飞行员提问说，为什么切 断"。"而另一名飞行员回答说，他没有这么做。" 6月12日，在印度古吉拉特邦艾哈迈达巴德，人们在客机失事现场进行救援。图/新华社 印度航空事故调查局8日向印度民航总局和其他相关部门提交了印度航空波音787-8型客机坠毁 事故的初步调查报告。 当地时间6月12日下午，一架从印度飞往英国的印度航空公司波音787-8型客机在印度古吉拉特 邦艾哈迈达巴德机场起飞后不久坠毁，造成机上和地面上共270余人遇难。飞机上的两个黑匣 子均已被找到。这是波音787机型首次发生致命空难，多国已派团队协助调查。 ...

智通财经7月12日电，波音公司表示，将遵从英国航空事故调查局（AAIB）提供关于AI171航班的信 息，遵循联合国国际民用航空组织的协议。 ...