中信建投（601066）研报称，预计明年锂电池总需求有望超过2700GWh，同比增速超过30%，其中储能 电池需求超过900GWh，锂电多个环节可能出现紧缺。 华泰证券指出，根据测算，2026年全球锂资源供应增量将主要来自国内盐湖新项目投产、非洲矿与澳矿 的放量，以及南美盐湖产能的爬产。中性预期下，我们预测2025年至2027年全球锂资源供给量预计分别 为163.4万吨、216.2万吨和253.2万吨LCE，同比增速分别为22.3%、32.3%和17.1%。考虑到当前锂价高 位对产能释放的刺激作用，我们认为在8万元/吨以下/8-9万元/吨/9万元/吨以上的三种价格假设下，26年 的锂资源供给量分别为205.7/216.2/223.4万吨LCE。 隔夜美股美股锂矿概念持续走强，Sigma Lithium大涨13%，智利矿业化工、美国雅保均上涨。 据《卫报》报道，美国国防部正通过国家国防储备计划大规模囤积关键矿产，被纳入囤积范围的至少包 括38种矿物和金属，其中涵盖锂、钴、石墨以及稀土元素，这些正是能源转型所依赖的基础材料。 据12月3日声明，Vulcan Energy已获得近25亿美元融资，用于建设欧洲最大锂生 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of building materials is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with a downward shift in the price center and weak operation [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a short - term strong volatile state, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some mills [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The building materials market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage, and a lack of macro and industrial highlights, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center [4]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate showed signs of a rebound. The main contract LC2605 closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 1.76%, with a basis of - 2,090 yuan/ton in a contango structure. The trading volume and open interest increased to varying degrees, and the long - short game intensified [2]. - Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic new - energy policies, but constrained by inventory pressure and cautious downstream procurement, it may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term [2]. - According to SMM data, last week's output was 21,900 tons, a 0.34% increase from the previous period. The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is slow, and salt - lake lithium extraction is restricted, resulting in limited supply increments [3]. - In terms of demand, the production schedule in the energy - storage field is strong, but the demand for power batteries is seasonally weak, and terminal car companies' procurement is cautious. However, the possible continuation of the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax exemption policy boosts market confidence [3]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium - mine approval process, but the resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increment is limited [4]. - Some lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises are considering price increases, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs [4]. - The open interest of the main contract has increased sharply, and speculative funds are active. Attention should be paid to possible regulatory measures by the exchange [4].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年12月09日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强支撑位：83000 | 56.7% | 88.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 推荐套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 远月期货合约 | 买入 | 10% | | | 产成品价格无相 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划，担 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生产 | LC2605-P-83000 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 关性 | 心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨导 | 计划需买入对应生产计划的期货 ...

五矿证券近日发布A股锂矿行业2025年三季报梳理分析：2025Q3全球新能源汽车销量540万辆，同比 +23%；储能电池出货量170Gwh，同比+98.5%，产业链排产增加带动库存去化并加速。2025Q3锂盐库 存由15万吨下降至13万吨，进入十月份后，库存去化速度加快。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事件描述 A股12家涉及锂矿&锂盐业务企业均已披露2025Q3季报，我们从价格、产量、库存、营业收入、归母净 利润、毛利率&净利率、费用、资本支出和偿债能力九大方向进行分析，通过样本企业观测市场整体变 化趋势，以寻求锂行业周期拐点启示。 12家样本企业为：天齐锂业、中矿资源、盛新锂能、雅化集团、融捷股份、永兴材料、江特电机、盐湖 股份、藏格矿业、西藏矿业、天华新能、华友钴业（以上排名不分先后）。 事件点评 通过我们对A股12家锂矿企业2025Q3季报的梳理，我们发现： 1.市场方面： 2）产量：2025Q3盐湖放量叠加冶炼端套保利润增加，中国锂盐产量增速提升； 3）库存：需求旺季，锂盐库存逐月下降并向下游聚集。 2.上市公司业绩层面： 1）营业收入：2025Q3上市公司量价齐升，营业收入同比+27%； 2）归母净利润： ...

每经AI快讯，天齐锂业(09696.HK)一度跌逾4%，截至发稿跌3.98%，报46.36港元，成交额9481.59万港 元。 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 8, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 92,460 yuan/ton and closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.76% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 599,367 lots, and the open interest was 593,129 lots, compared to 560,676 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was -610 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 13,120 lots, a change of 2,198 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 91,100 - 94,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 89,900 - 90,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,173 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - Downstream material factories made bargain purchases, but as the futures price gradually increased, their purchasing willingness returned to a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were still ongoing, with the focus of the game on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to remain strong; the energy storage market will continue the situation of strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern will remain. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, in the context of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be destocked in December, but the magnitude will slow down compared to November [2]. Group 3: Company News - On December 4, 2025, Guoxuan High - Tech (002074) stated on the investor platform that the G - Yuan quasi - solid - state battery had completed relevant testing work and started verification work. The Jinshi all - solid - state battery achieved the landing of the pilot production line and internal vehicle road tests in the first half of this year, and is currently promoting the design work of the 2GWh mass - production line. Guoxuan's first all - solid - state 0.2GWh experimental line was officially connected, and the yield rate of this production line reached 90% through the application of key technologies such as high - precision coating [3]. Group 4: Strategy - The intraday trading was volatile, inventory was continuously destocked, and consumption provided some support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to resume gradually in the future. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the power battery segment will decline, while the energy storage segment will remain high. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. The short - term strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (MMLC) in Shanghai has increased, indicating a potential upward trend in the lithium market [1] Price Movement - The current mid-price of MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 91,900 yuan per ton, which reflects an increase of 700 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's 16:30 price [1]

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 碳酸锂期货上涨，上周市场担心的枧下窝矿复产并未落地，早盘 01 合约在跌破 9 万后迅速拉回，在现货价持续坚挺背景下，碳酸锂向下力量有限。日内现货跌 500 至 92750，贸易市场贴水幅度持平，澳矿涨 15 至 1172.5，锂云母涨 20 至 2535， 三元涨 0-50，铁锂跌 ...

2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为93764元/吨，日环比减少0.52%,生产所得为-1810元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为92638元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-2982元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿 石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿 石端，盈利 ...

天齐锂业（002466）(09696)发布公告，黄凯婷女士因其他工作安排已辞任公司的联席公司秘书及香港 联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则第3.05条的公司授权代表，自2025年12月8日起生效。李家慧女士已 获委任为联席公司秘书及授权代表，自2025年12月8日起生效。张文宇先生获委任为替任授权代表，自 2025年12月8日起生效，并将继续担任另一名联席公司秘书。 ...