Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS Group indicates a slowdown in global economic growth but suggests that a recession can be avoided. Investment strategies should align with policy and market trends while diversifying to hedge risks, with a focus on technology, Asian markets excluding Japan, investment-grade bonds, and gold [1]. Macroeconomic Core Judgments - Global economic growth is slowing due to uncertainties in tariff policies, but the U.S. can avoid recession thanks to AI-related capital expenditures, fiscal stimulus, and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, inflation risks remain [1][19]. - The market is being driven by policy, with the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle and significant impacts from fiscal stimulus and tariff policies. The high U.S. debt level necessitates a low-interest-rate environment for financing [1]. Asset Allocation Views 1. Stock Market: Focus on Technology and Asian Markets - U.S. stock market: The technology sector is rated positively, driven by accelerated AI applications, while the overall U.S. stock market is rated neutral. The energy sector outlook is downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases suppressing oil prices [3][4]. - European stock market: Rated neutral, with improved economic growth prospects and attractive valuations, but tariffs and a stronger euro may pressure profit margins [5]. - Japanese stock market: Rated negatively due to high valuations and political uncertainties affecting policy execution, despite foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian markets excluding Japan: Rated positively, with valuations approximately 30% lower than global averages, supported by Chinese policy stimulus, strong Indian economic growth, and resilient earnings [7]. 2. Bond Market: Preference for Short-Duration Investment-Grade Bonds - Investment-grade (IG) bonds: Rated positively, with attractive valuations in a rate-cutting cycle, focusing on 2-3 year short-duration, high-rated A/BBB bonds. Consider extending duration to 7-10 years if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields exceed 4.5% [7][8]. - High-yield (HY) bonds: Rated negatively due to historically low spreads and insufficient risk compensation, with rising default risks [8]. - Long-term bonds: Rated cautiously, as the steepening yield curve presents unfavorable risk-reward ratios [8]. 3. Foreign Exchange Market: Mild Weakening of the U.S. Dollar - U.S. dollar: Rated negatively, with a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and fiscal concerns leading to a gradual depreciation, though the decline is not expected to be sharp due to high real yields and resilient U.S. equities [9]. - Favorable currencies: Euro (due to divergence in ECB and Fed policies) and Australian dollar (supported by improved U.S.-China trade relations) [10]. - Asian currencies: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, while the Singapore dollar may weaken due to expectations of policy easing [11]. 4. Commodities and Alternative Investments: Focus on Hedging and Scarcity - Commodities: Overall demand is weak, with a focus on strategic commodities such as precious metals (due to safe-haven demand), rare earths (for technology/defense needs), and coffee (limited supply and tariff impacts). Oil price forecasts are downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases leading to oversupply [12]. - Gold: Rated strongly positively, supported by a weaker dollar, rate-cut expectations, ongoing central bank purchases, and de-dollarization trends, with a target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [12]. - Alternative investments: Private equity, debt, and hedge funds are rated positively for providing non-market directional returns, diversifying risks, and enhancing portfolio resilience [13]. Core Investment Strategies - Leverage-based portfolio: Simultaneously allocate to income-generating assets (like investment-grade bonds and high-dividend stocks) and long-term growth assets (like technology and Asian equities) to balance returns and risks [14]. - Diversification hedging: Use gold, hedge funds, and private assets to hedge against downside risks and avoid impacts from single market volatility [14]. - Trend-following allocation: Capitalize on trends such as AI proliferation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and valuation recovery in Asian markets while avoiding long-term bonds, high-yield debt, and weak sectors in mature markets [15].

Core Viewpoint - The National Market Supervision Administration is seeking public opinion on the "Guidelines for Law Enforcement on Advertising Citation Content (Draft for Comments)," which aims to regulate misleading advertising practices that use large fonts for attention-grabbing claims while hiding important disclaimers in small print [1][2]. Group 1: Advertising Practices - Recent exposure of misleading advertising practices, such as using large fonts for claims like "King of Backlight" while including disclaimers in small print, has raised consumer dissatisfaction [1]. - The phenomenon of "large font attention, small font disclaimers" has evolved from individual marketing tactics to a widespread negative trend in the market [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The regulation of these misleading advertising practices is timely, as effective advertising is crucial for companies to enhance product visibility and gain consumer recognition [2]. - Companies should respect consumer intelligence and aesthetics, avoiding deceptive advertising tactics that undermine trust [2][3]. Group 3: Legal Implications - The "small print trap" potentially violates multiple legal provisions, including the Advertising Law and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, which require significant conditions to be clearly communicated to consumers [3]. - Courts typically assess whether businesses have fulfilled their obligation to inform consumers based on whether disclaimers are noticeable to the average consumer, indicating that tiny disclaimers do not protect businesses from liability [3]. Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are encouraged to focus on technological innovation and product development rather than resorting to deceptive advertising practices [3]. - Regulatory bodies should enhance enforcement and penalties to increase the cost of non-compliance for businesses, promoting ethical advertising practices [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of better market mechanisms in various sectors, including education, employment, and organ donation, emphasizing that price is not the only effective signal for resource allocation [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Mechanisms - Alvin E. Roth's research highlights that certain markets operate on "matching" rather than price mechanisms, such as school admissions, marriage, labor, and organ exchange markets [4][5]. - Roth's work on market design aims to improve the efficiency of these matching processes, demonstrating how they can significantly impact individuals' lives and societal functioning [5][6]. Group 2: Applications of Deferred Acceptance Algorithm - The "deferred acceptance algorithm" has been applied in various contexts, including China's college admission reforms, which allow students to fill out parallel choices after receiving their scores, reducing issues like "high scores but low admissions" [6][10]. - Roth's kidney exchange system has become a standard procedure in the U.S., directly saving lives by facilitating organ matches without monetary transactions [6][18]. Group 3: Global Trends in Organ Exchange - There is a growing trend towards cross-border kidney exchanges, which is particularly beneficial for countries with limited organ donation numbers [19][20]. - China has made significant changes in organ transplantation practices, moving towards voluntary organ donation, although kidney exchange systems are still not fully implemented [19][20]. Group 4: Market Design and Social Issues - Roth emphasizes that completely banning markets often leads to inefficiencies and black markets, suggesting that well-designed mechanisms are necessary to meet societal needs [23][24]. - The article discusses the challenges of human migration and the need for better market mechanisms to address the complexities of refugee movements and internal migration [29][30]. Group 5: Future of Market Design - Roth's perspective on market design has evolved to focus on "marketplace design," which considers the micro-units within larger markets, aiming to optimize their operations [30][31]. - The article concludes with Roth's belief that understanding and improving market mechanisms can lead to better societal outcomes, particularly in education and healthcare [31].

韩文秀介绍，2024年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，我国先后出台实施了一系列政策措施，明年还将根 据形势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。 12月13日，在中国国际经济交流中心举办的2025—2026中国经济年会上，中央财办分管日常工作的副主 任、中央农办主任韩文秀表示，"十四五"规划纲要所确定的20项主要指标即将顺利完成，推动党和国家 事业发展取得新的重大成就。 韩文秀表示，近期，国际货币基金组织、高盛等国际机构纷纷上调了今明两年我国经济增长的预测。回 望"十四五"，我们有效应对世纪疫情、脱钩断链、自然灾害等超乎寻常的冲击挑战。经济实力明显壮 大，我国经济总量连续跨过110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元的台阶，今年预计达到140万亿元左右。 韩文秀表示，明年要保持经济稳定增长，保持就业和物价总体稳定，保持国际收支基本平衡，促进居民 收入增长和经济增长同步。 韩文秀介绍，做好明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调节，切实提升宏观 经济治理效能。 促进居民收入增长和经济增长同步 继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出 ...

经济日报记者 刘成 青岛数字经济产业园里，松立控股集团智慧停车指挥中心屏幕上实时显示着停车泊位状态；航运贸 易金融总部大厦内，工作人员盯着屏幕实时跟踪集装箱物流信息；在浮山湾商圈，年轻人手举奶茶打卡 首店；在中山路历史文化街区，老里院现代喜剧演出座无虚席……近年来，青岛市市南区深挖现代服务 业发展机遇、破解发展瓶颈，推动现代服务业质效双升。 数据显示，2025年1月至11月，市南区服务业增加值占地区生产总值比重达91.4%。"我们聚焦回答 好现代服务业'服务于谁、谁来服务'，构建起总部经济集群，数字经济、现代金融、高端商务、时尚消 费、航运贸易、文化旅游和新兴产业、未来产业的'1+6+1'主导+创新产业体系，加快建设现代服务业强 区。"市南区委书记王锋说。 数智赋能 风速、气温、降水、海浪……走进青岛埃克曼科技有限公司，其围绕海洋气象环境精准预报自主研 发的服务系统——智慧海洋管理平台iocean正在对海洋预报数据进行实时跟踪、动态分析。"平台能够 为核电、风电及港口提供数据监测分析以及决策建议等。"青岛埃克曼科技有限公司总经理李德明说。 埃克曼以数字化赋能实体经济高质量发展，是市南区在生产性服务业领域创新探 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nanjing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to gather opinions from various democratic parties and non-party representatives regarding the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, emphasizing the importance of collective effort and collaboration in achieving the plan's goals [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - The meeting was chaired by Secretary Zhou Hongbo, who highlighted the significance of democratic participation and collective wisdom in addressing major issues and formulating important documents [2]. - Representatives from various democratic parties and the Federation of Industry and Commerce expressed high praise for the achievements during the 14th Five-Year period and supported the suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1]. Group 2: Suggestions and Focus Areas - Specific suggestions were made regarding the development of a new power system, acceleration of the biopharmaceutical industry, promotion of digital economy to enhance consumer upgrades, and strengthening the development of the private economy [1]. - Additional focus areas included urban innovation, enhancing financial support, optimizing the business environment for Taiwanese enterprises, exploring modern agricultural development, and tapping into the consumption potential of cultural and tourism industries [1].

"自2023年启动新一轮国企改革深化提升行动以来，我们以'一年谋划、两年攻坚、三年收官'的战 略定力，推动139项改革任务靶向突破。"泰州市国资委相关负责人表示，从司库体系"数智赋能"到招商 机制"精准破局"，从产业布局"优化升级"到民生服务"提质增效"，国有资本正为城市高质量发展注入强 劲动力。 "以前企业资金分散在8500多个银行账户，监管难、调度慢，现在通过司库系统，资金归集效率提 升80%，内部调剂更精准高效。"泰州市交通产业集团财务负责人介绍，借助这套系统，集团已归集资 金251亿元，办理内部贷款150笔，累计节约融资成本超2亿元。目前，司库系统创新"国资侧+企业侧"双 系统模式，实现银行账户实时监管，银企直连覆盖率超95%。通过系统贷款预警功能，某国企提前调度 资金规避了亿元逾期风险。这一改革亮点不仅斩获2025中国司库建设司南奖"地方机构司库建设标杆"， 更成为泰州优化国资配置的生动注脚。 除司库系统外，市国资委以"数智赋能"优化国企融资环境，上线了泰州市国有企业融资交易服务平 台。该平台与司库系统实现功能贯通，优化了融资计划管理、融资交易管理、债务监测预警和资金动态 管理等功能，构建资金来源可 ...

当地时间12月12日（周五），美股三大股指走势分化，道指创下历史新高。截至发稿，道指涨0.24%，标普500指数跌0.08%，纳指跌0.3%。 | 口 △ 田 (0) | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 48819.15 | +0.24% | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6895.48 | -0.08% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 23523.63 | -0.30% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | | | | | 7831.94 | +0.75% | 消息面上，周五，多位美联储官员发声。美联储施密德表示，劳动力市场正在降温，但仍基本保持平衡；通胀仍过高，经济呈现增长势头，希望保持货币 政策适度限制性。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确定关税对通胀的影响是否只是暂时的。就2026年降息 幅度预期而言，降息次数将多于中值预测。 美国克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示，美联储在获得新数据后将拥有更好的可见度。"我倾向于采取略微更具限 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that Hong Kong stocks outperformed global investor expectations in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 30%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 26.7%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 26.2%, surpassing major global markets such as the S&P 500, DAX, and Nikkei 225 [1][8][11] - The report anticipates that Hong Kong stocks will continue to rise in 2026 due to several factors, including expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a temporary easing of Sino-US relations, and synchronized monetary and fiscal policies in China [1][16][21] - The report emphasizes that the main investment themes for 2026 will be technology and cyclical sectors, with a focus on innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a barbell strategy for portfolio allocation to mitigate potential risks from overseas macroeconomic and political uncertainties [1][3][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the first half of 2026 is expected to present more trading opportunities, driven by domestic and international factors, including a favorable policy environment in China and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][16] - It is noted that the cyclical sectors are likely to benefit from domestic policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving global demand, with a focus on commodities and real estate stocks in Hong Kong [3][16] - The report also points out the potential for continued inflows of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks, driven by a "wealth effect" as market performance improves [1][11][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential pitfalls for retail investors in the context of the IPO of Xidi Zhijia, emphasizing the disparity between impressive revenue growth and significant net losses [1][3] - Xidi Zhijia's IPO showcases a textbook example of capital operation, with notable institutional backing from investors like Sequoia and Baidu, indicating a strong institutional support model [3][10] - The article draws parallels between the current market conditions and past IPOs, warning that retail investors may be drawn to the hype without recognizing underlying risks, as seen in the case of NIO [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the "bull market adjustment" phenomenon, where the Hang Seng Tech Index experiences significant fluctuations while institutions continue to buy on dips, suggesting a complex market dynamic [4][10] - It notes that despite Xidi Zhijia's overall losses, projections for revenue in the first half of 2024 are nearly equal to the total revenue for 2023, indicating potential turning points hidden in financial reports [7][10] - The article emphasizes that true stock price trends are driven by capital behavior rather than technical analysis, advocating for a quantitative approach to understanding market movements [8][10] Group 3 - Xidi Zhijia's market share in the autonomous mining truck sector is reported at 16.8%, but the marginal efficiency improvement of only 104% raises concerns about potential "high open low walk" scenarios for institutional arbitrage [10][11] - The article draws a comparison between the operational needs of autonomous mining trucks and the necessity for continuous monitoring in quantitative trading, suggesting that investors should adopt similar vigilance [11][13] - It concludes with three key pieces of advice for investors: be wary of "scene limitations," understand the "mining efficiency" of capital, and establish a personal monitoring system for trading behaviors [13]