Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Outlook - The article suggests a relatively neutral to optimistic outlook on future tariff policies, indicating that the potential cancellation of reciprocal tariffs and negotiation space for the 20% fentanyl tax is likely [1] - It highlights three key investment themes: government support in the consumer sector focusing on social welfare, an increase in free cash flow due to declining capital expenditure willingness, and growth in high-end manufacturing driven by artificial intelligence investments [1] Group 2: ETF Market Trends - The ETF market has seen a shift from broad-based ETFs to sector-specific thematic ETFs, indicating an increased risk appetite among investors, particularly in technology, artificial intelligence, chips, and military sectors [2] - The article identifies artificial intelligence as a key economic driver, with potential market gains in the context of U.S.-China relations, while the military sector is viewed positively despite weak current fundamentals [2] Group 3: Cash Flow and Dividend Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of free cash flow, suggesting that as economic growth slows, companies may reduce investment willingness, leading to increased free cash flow [3] - It argues that free cash flow is a strong investment factor, outperforming dividend-focused strategies, and recommends a focus on large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises with ample cash flow as a potential investment theme [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For the second half of the year, the article recommends a diversified asset allocation strategy, suggesting technology for aggressive investors and dividend or cash flow strategies for conservative investors [4] - Specific ETF recommendations include the CSI A500 ETF for broad exposure, the Guotai Science and Technology Index ETF for technology, and a combination of dividend and cash flow ETFs for income generation [4]

行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 08 日 军贸稳步推进打开空间，推荐六月 最佳关注时点 看好 —— 国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 24 周） 重要信息回顾： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 军贸体系装备进展获巴基斯坦官方验证，将极大提升行业估值空间及相关上市公司业绩 兑现能力，且随着半年报逐渐预期，以及十五五规划逐步推动，叠加抗日战争胜利 80 周年庆祝活动，我们认为军工后续将逐渐上涨，推荐六月份为最佳关注时点。 ⚫ 中国军贸进 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trade war between China and the United States has escalated beyond mere tariff increases, evolving into a broader contest of economic strength and global influence [1][2][6][26] - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to unprecedented levels, with the latest increase reaching 125%, while China has responded in kind, indicating a tit-for-tat strategy [1][2][4] - The trade conflict is characterized as a "foundational battle" for China's rise as a superpower, similar to historical conflicts that established international standing [7][26] Group 2 - The articles highlight the significant decline of U.S. goods in the Chinese market, dropping from 18.7% in 2018 to just 2.3% currently, illustrating the adverse effects of the tariff increases [4] - The U.S. faces a looming financial crisis with $9.2 trillion in government debt maturing by 2025, and China has been strategically selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, which could impact U.S. interest rates [4][10] - The articles emphasize that the global supply chain heavily relies on China, with 31% of the world's manufacturing value produced there, making it difficult for the U.S. to decouple its economy from China [6][10] Group 3 - China's industrial capabilities are presented as a significant advantage, with a complete supply chain that can produce everything from basic components to advanced technology, unlike the U.S. which has outsourced much of its manufacturing [10][11][15] - The Belt and Road Initiative is mentioned as a strategic move to build international partnerships and infrastructure, enhancing China's global influence [12] - The articles argue that the U.S. military-industrial complex is struggling to maintain production capabilities, which could hinder its ability to compete with China's growing military strength [15][22] Group 4 - The articles assert that China's domestic market, with a population of 1.4 billion, provides a robust foundation for economic resilience and growth, particularly in sectors like e-commerce and electric vehicles [16] - The use of the Chinese yuan for international transactions is highlighted as a challenge to the U.S. dollar's dominance, potentially destabilizing the U.S. economy [17] - The long-term strategic planning of China, in contrast to the U.S. political volatility, is presented as a key advantage in this ongoing economic rivalry [19][23]

Group 1: Stablecoins and Global Currency System - Stablecoins are typically pegged to stable assets like fiat currencies (mainly USD), precious metals, or other cryptocurrencies, providing relative stability in value [1] - The stablecoin market has significantly expanded since 2020, currently valued at nearly $245 billion, driven by advantages in payment settlements, demand from the expanding cryptocurrency market, and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The development of stablecoins essentially extends the dominance of the USD into the cryptocurrency realm, although the ongoing de-globalization of the USD may not be reversed by stablecoin growth [2] Group 2: China's Market Outlook - The "transformation bull" market in China is becoming clearer, with strategic optimism for 2025 driven by reduced marginal impacts from valuation contractions and a shift in investor expectations [3] - Key drivers for this market include a decline in risk-free rates, effective economic policies, and a focus on investor returns, which are crucial for changing risk perceptions among investors [3][4] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as finance, emerging technology, and cyclical consumption, with recommendations for stocks in brokerage, banking, insurance, and new consumer trends [4][5] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the A-share market since the beginning of the year, with a 19% increase in the Hang Seng Index, driven by sectors like healthcare, technology, and consumer goods [7] - The scarcity of certain assets in the Hong Kong market, particularly those related to AI applications and new consumption trends, is a significant factor in its outperformance [7][8] - Positive factors supporting the Hong Kong market's upward trajectory include fundamental recovery and improved liquidity, with a focus on technology stocks benefiting from accelerated AI applications [8]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the recent investment style is characterized by three main features: new, small, and fast. The strongest industry trends since September last year are AI and new consumption, which align with new industrial logic [2][6][7] - The first feature, "new," highlights that the strongest industries during 2013-2015 were TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) driven by the growth of mobile internet, similar to the current AI trend. New consumption sectors such as dining, tourism, light industry, and textiles outperformed traditional sectors like food and home appliances [3][6][7] - The second feature, "small," notes that small-cap stocks are currently active, especially during market fluctuations, mirroring the performance of small-cap stocks during 2013-2015 [11][15] - The third feature, "fast," refers to the rapid rotation of market trends, with AI and robotics showing strong excess returns in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but weaker performance recently. This mirrors the volatility seen in TMT during 2013-2015 [12][15] Group 2 - The report identifies the underlying reasons for the current investment style as a weak economy with a strong market, a decline in old funds (active public funds), and a rise in new funds (financing balance, speculative quantitative funds). Additionally, continuous policy support is noted, with a slow IPO pace [15][19] - The report suggests that despite a weak economic backdrop, there are structural opportunities in the stock market, similar to the conditions observed during 2013-2015 when economic growth was also weak [15][19] - The report anticipates that the market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, with pressures including slow economic recovery and reduced trading enthusiasm among retail investors. However, a return to a bullish market is possible in Q3 if any of the factors related to earnings, policy, or retail funds turn optimistic [21][23]

2025 年 06 月 08 日 震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 本期要点：震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 正如上周所述，当前市场走势比 2024 年 6 月要强一些，结构上可以 考虑在均衡的基础上偏向低吸科技板块，目前来看基本符合预期。 上周市场表现相对较强，上证则是再度形成了向上一笔，有挑战 5 月 高点的迹象。但在有效突破 5 月高点之前，上证也有可能因存在日线 顶背离的压制而出现调整的可能性。因此，我们当下维持市场震荡偏 强的判断，但将密切关注在前高附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹 象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那么后续或将迎来真正的调整。 上周四盘后，我们的四轮驱动模型再次发出 TMT 方向的多个看多信 号。从相对于市场的低频温度计角度看，目前 TMT 板块仍处于相对低 位；而从拥挤度的角度看，TMT 板块在 5 月底下探两年来的低点之后， 又有再度小幅上行的迹象。这两个因素或使得至少未来一两周内 TMT 是一个值得认真关注的方向。 具体而言，行业上，除了电子、计算机、传媒等板块外，还可以关注 非银、食品饮料、纺织服饰、通信、机械、军工等板块的机会。 风险提示：根据历史数据构 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][79]. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the military industry, emphasizing strong demand recovery expected by 2025, driven by multiple catalysts including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "Centenary Goals of the Army" [4][45]. - The military sector is expected to see significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand, with a strong recommendation for investment in three main lines: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index (801740) increased by 0.41% from June 3 to June 6, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.88%, resulting in an underperformance of -0.47 percentage points [11][16]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has risen by 2.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has decreased by 1.55%, leading to a relative outperformance of 3.85 percentage points [18]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - Domestic Trade: - Land Equipment: Companies such as Tianqin Equipment, Bai'ao Intelligent, and Gaode Infrared are highlighted [4][46]. - Components & Aerospace: Companies like Huojue Electronics and Chengdu Huamei are recommended [4][46]. - Information Technology Upgrade: Companies such as Xinjinggang and Sichuan Aerospace are noted [4][46]. - Foreign Trade: Companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are suggested [9][46]. - Self-Sufficiency: - Commercial Engines: Companies like Hangyu Technology and Tunan Co. are mentioned [10][46]. - Commercial Aircraft: Companies such as Xiling Power and Aerospace Huanyu are included [10][46]. - Nuclear Fusion: Companies like Guoguang Electric and Lianchuang Optoelectronics are noted [10][46]. 3. Funding and Valuation - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs increased, with a net inflow of 1.518 billion yuan during the week, indicating a positive trend in funding [29][35]. - As of June 6, the military sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 65.49, with a percentile rank of 89.8%, suggesting high investment value at this time [4][46].

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The J-10C fighter jet is expected to lead China's military trade, becoming a prominent symbol of China's military exports [11] - The potential demand and development space in the military trade market are anticipated to exceed market expectations, with various companies positioned to benefit [11] Summary by Sections Events - Indonesia is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, influenced by the aircraft's performance in the India-Pakistan conflict and its competitive pricing compared to Western counterparts [2] - Recent reports highlight the J-10's development and achievements, with significant interest shown at the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition [2] - Pakistan's government announced the acquisition of 40 J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighters and other military equipment from China [2] Analysis and Judgments - The J-10 is poised to continue the success of previous Chinese military exports, moving from low-end markets to mid-high-end markets [3] - The J-10CE is recognized as China's most advanced fighter jet export, indicating China's capability for comprehensive high-performance fighter jet exports [4] - The J-10CE is seen as a cost-effective option for developing countries, competing against established models like the F-16 and MiG series [4] Market Dynamics - The global military trade landscape is shifting towards integrated solutions rather than just hardware sales, with increasing demand for comprehensive military systems [6] - Countries like South Korea are emerging as competitors in the arms market, leveraging their military-industrial capabilities [6] Industry Development - The J-10CE's export is expected to drive significant growth in the military supply chain, with advancements in materials, engines, and avionics systems enhancing its performance [7][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic aerospace manufacturers in achieving technological self-reliance and innovation [10] Investment Recommendations - Key beneficiaries identified include: - AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a core manufacturer of fighter jets, expected to gain from increased international interest in the J-10CE [11] - Zhongjian Technology, a leader in high-end carbon fiber materials crucial for aircraft performance [11] - Guorui Technology, a leader in military radar systems, showing positive growth in military trade orders [11] - Other companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Hongdu Aviation are also highlighted for their export potential in various military aircraft and systems [12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The J-10C fighter jet is expected to lead China's military trade, becoming a prominent symbol of China's military exports [11] - The potential demand and development space in the military trade market are anticipated to exceed market expectations, with various companies positioned to benefit [11] Summary by Sections Events - Indonesia is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, influenced by the aircraft's performance in the India-Pakistan conflict and its competitive pricing compared to Western counterparts [2] - Recent reports highlight the J-10's development and achievements, with significant interest shown at the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition [2] - Pakistan's government announced the acquisition of 40 J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighters and other military equipment from China [2] Analysis and Judgments - The J-10 is poised to continue the success of previous Chinese military exports, moving from low-end markets to mid-high-end markets [3] - The J-10CE is positioned as a cost-effective option for developing countries, competing against established models like the F-16 and MiG series [4] - The J-10CE is expected to gain more international interest, particularly in Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East [5] Global Military Trade Landscape - The military trade landscape is shifting towards integrated solutions rather than just hardware sales, with increasing demand for comprehensive military systems [6] - Countries like South Korea are emerging as significant players in the global arms market, challenging traditional military powers [6] Industry Development - The J-10CE's capabilities, including advanced avionics and weapon systems, are expected to drive growth in the military supply chain [7] - The use of advanced materials and engines in the J-10CE enhances its performance and operational capabilities [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Key beneficiaries of the J-10's success include: - AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a core manufacturer of fighter jets [11] - Zhongjian Technology, a leader in high-end carbon fiber for aerospace applications [11] - Guorui Technology, a leader in military radar systems [11] - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, known for its advanced fighter jets [12] - Hongdu Aviation, a core manufacturer of training aircraft with significant export potential [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, highlighting China's response to U.S. tariffs and restrictions, particularly in the rare earth sector [1][3][5] - China controls 90% of global rare earth refining capacity, which gives it significant leverage in the trade conflict, especially as the U.S. relies on these materials for defense and high-tech industries [3][5][7] - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, is facing severe financial strain due to increased tariffs, with reports indicating that 30% of farms are nearing bankruptcy [3][5] Group 2 - The article notes that China's export controls on rare earth elements have immediate impacts on U.S. industries, including automotive and defense, with companies like Ford being forced to shut down operations due to supply chain disruptions [3][5] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China strengthening trade ties with ASEAN and other regions, while the U.S. attempts to counter this through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework [5][7] - The article raises questions about the long-term implications of the trade conflict, particularly whether the U.S. can reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths in the future [7]